Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bruin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Sorry if this has been asked before. Is Ryan benched for good do we think? if so who is best replacement keeper?

    1. Kasper the ghost keeper
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Yes, Mendy

  2. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Sometimes I can't get my head around the stats tables. For example I'm looking at the defenders and from between gameweeks 2-7, despite having the toughest run of fixtures, Cresswell has created the most chances of any defender. However in the expected assists table for defenders, he is some way down the table. This is despite the fact he has created the most chances and now has a favourable run of fixtures. Can somebody explain this?

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Chance creation is not the same as xA.

      That's the answer.

      All the players that create the most chances are on set pieces because a corner that is met will usually be considered as a created chance.

    2. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 29 days ago

      He must have created a high volume of very low quality chances. Whereas other defenders created fewer but better chances.

      1. gooberman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        So do you think then that Masuaka is a better pick than Cresswell as he is second for expected assists?

        1. Major League Shocker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 29 days ago

          There is talk that Masuaku could be dropped if they switch to a back 4 against easier teams.

          If you expect he will not, then he seems preferable at the lower price.

          That said, chance creation does move a player up in the BPS even if he is not creating great chances. There was one game where Reece James got 0 regular points (booked and conceded 2-3 goals) and still managed a bonus point because he created a massive number of chances.

          1. gooberman
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 29 days ago

            Yeah Cresswell is some way ahead in total bps score

  3. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Get Werner for the next two gws then get vardy in gw10 for fulham or just go vardy.

    Werner SHU new
    Vardy WOL liv FUL

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Just had same issue. I went direct to Vardy just on the way Leics are creating right now. Not sure Chelsea will get a boatload in next two as they are usually fairly hard to break down.

    2. Z
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      If u have CFC mid, try with Vardy....but i think that Werner is your man

      1. MattysFantasyFooty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        don't have a chelsea midfielder

        1. Z
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Werner 100% then

    3. LSK
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Vardy imo. Who knows what other transfers you’ll need to make and Vardy can score against anyone.

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        This is my reasoning for going straight to Vardy

  4. Terry Henry
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Thoughts on Ziyech as a Pulisic replacement? Solid form but are minutes an issue?

    1. Z
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Minutes are not problem....Pulisic and Havertz are out. So you can try. I have Werner

      1. Gun gun
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Pulisic out? Who say?

        1. Terry Henry
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Pulisic hamstring injury but is now at 50% not sure why. Quotes or club statement?

      2. cravencottage
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        I haven’t seen the Pulisic confirmation. Source?

        1. Gun gun
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Still nt sure if he will start. But i still praying, if he nvr play then asm will sub in

    2. Carefree Crew
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      I think Ziyech is nailed. Willian & Pedro were the wide right players & both left.
      Havertz didn't really work playing there & Mount is better centrally.

      CHO prefers the left.

      Ziyech was subbed off mid week & is the creative threat.

      Pulisic minor hamstring tear, can't see him starting a week later. Lamps talked about carefully managing his minutes last time he was injured.

      Presser tomorrow but FWIW I transferred Ziyech in.

      In last 40 games in all comps, 30 attacking returns.

      "Wand of a left foot."

      Havertz had covid.

      1. Terry Henry
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Thanks for the informative reply

    3. Carefree Crew
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Welcome mate. 🙂

  5. Jon Walter's Hatty
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Think if Frank plays James this week he can be considered a safe bet for starting. To be honest this would not be an issue if Azpi were not captain and a solid player in his own right. On the other side Chilwell is a mile ahead of his competition. I guess a 343 or 352 sorts the issue but seems daft to change a winning formula.

    The question is will Frank show any sentiment and he really should not. Teams like Sheff U will need unlocking in behind and James has been doing this superbly when he starts, dare I say outdoing TAA. The clean sheets also speak for themselves. For me James at 5.0 is towards the top value player in the game IF he nails the spot.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Yes. I very much hope he sticks. I have James starting this week.

    2. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      biggest word in all of that is IF

      1. Z
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        This! And that is the reason why he is 5M

      2. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        To be honest if he is benched then it will become very hard to justify keeping him. Azpi will forever be haunting the situation

    3. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Chilwell/James double-up could be massive.....make sure you've got a bench!

      1. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        I now have it with Robbo and Justin as the sub. Already hurt by one 3 min cameo but 14 points from last two games.

  6. ppv
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Bruno to Ziyech?

    1. tyron
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Why

    2. OneArseneWenger32
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 29 days ago

      do the opposite

    3. Z
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Keep Bruno

    4. ppv
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      OK thanks that seems pretty unanimous. Keep Keane or switch to Zouma or Cresswell. Already have Chillwell. Keane has done nothing for me but does have Fulham next week

  7. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Start one?

    A Podence lei A
    B Barkley ars A

    1. Z
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      I am rly not Podance fan dunno why

    2. wulfranian
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      a

  8. F_Ivanovic
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Bench one:

    A) Robertson (mci)
    B) KWP (NEW)
    C) Lamptey (BUR)
    D) Podence (lei)

    Thinking it's between A and D.

    1. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Agreed A or D, probs go A

  9. EgyptianKing
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Who to take of this GW - Saiss or Pulisic?

    Cheers

    1. F_Ivanovic
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Really hard to know without seeing rest of team. You'd have a much better idea. Wait to see about Pulisic... if there's a chance he might be back soon I'd rather keep him.

  10. Gun gun
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Chilwell for saiss? Or try digne?

    1. EgyptianKing
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Chilwell or Bellerin imo

      1. Gun gun
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Bellerin? Nah

      2. Gun gun
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Sorry i mean cresswell

  11. Tmel
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Should Jimenez > Werner or Podence > Grealish be my bigger priority?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Get Grealish. Might not pay off this week but good fixtures thereafter

  12. Oliver Tockman
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Any Pulisic owners holding out?

    1. Gun gun
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Still have

    2. Terry Henry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Am considering a swap to Ziyech but just seen Pulisic is now 50%. Do we think he has a chance?

      1. La Roja
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Pulisic is -70

    3. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Just sold him for Ziyech

    4. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      I am torn. Suppose it depends on the rest of your team. With IB round the corner, if you can go one more week without him then at least you know he should be back for next GW and you save the transfer. I'm trying to decide whether (if both fit) who is the better option long term, Ziyech or Pulisic

      1. Oliver Tockman
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        I’ve always thought that Pulisic is better long term, which is why I’m torn about making that switch.

        1. Gun gun
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Yes thats why i am torn too. But decided to stick with him!

        2. Wolfman180
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          I think it seems that way because we've seen more of Pulisic in the prem/ in the Chelsea team. We still don't know how consistent Ziyech can be. I know from what I've seen from him he looks good and passes the eye test (at least he does for me) and looks to be the one in fitness and form. However we know Pulisic can literally come into the team and pull out a hatty from nowhere. I'm on the verge of making the switch but I am worried of it punishing me longer term

    5. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Dithering at the moment over switching to Ziyech!

  13. There Can Be Only One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Ok wc tinkering finally complete

    Can I get a rmt and any obvious weaknesses called out please

    Martinez - Forster
    Bellerin - Zouma - KWP - Coufal - Kilman
    Salah - Ziyech - J. Rodz - Grealish - Jota
    Kane - Vardy - Bamford

    0.0m iTb

    WK 10 - Kane & Ziyech to Aguero & Mahrez

    Will play 3-5-2/3-4-3. With Jota and Bamford as the rotating 12th man. Will most likely play Jota and accept the fact he may get dropped or play 10mins and then have Bamford as 1st sub. But not this week though!

    1. F_Ivanovic
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      I mean it's not for me because I think it's strictly a mistake to have that much money on the bench. I can sort of get behind having Soucek as an 8th attacker but 6m in Bamford is just silly.

      1. There Can Be Only One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Thanks for responding I get where you're coming from, it's normally how I play as well. But it's easy enough to remedy, Bamford to Brewster or like you said Jota to Soucek with 1.4m to spend then. I'd upgrade KWP to a city defender in that case. So it's only 2 transfers.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 28 days ago

      No city cover? Have you seen their fixture run after gw9? If I was using my wc I'd be getting as many city as possible. My 2p

      1. FPL_Motty
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 28 days ago

        Just seen your planned xfers, but never like creating a wc with planned xfers, because they can be so valuable for in case of injuries / issues

  14. fcsaltyballs
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    First sub:

    1. Saiss (lei)
    2. Brewster (che)

    Thanks

    1. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Doubt it matters as I bet both will end up with 2 points. Maybe Brewster as he's perhaps guaranteed more minutes?

  15. Tempestic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Any news on Antonio?

    1. wulfranian
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Probably out.

      1. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        thanks

  16. Pickle juice
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Anyone know if maupay will start tomorrow ????

    1. FPL_DON
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      i would say likely

  17. Gun gun
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Will lamps update on pulisic?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Hope so but we have to wait and see.........

  18. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Should I get Kane (-4) or not?

    So torn.... on one hand fixture swing so “No, don’t take a hit you need to get City assets soon” but on the other “it’s West Brom, could miss out on a haul”

    Martinez
    TAA Keene Zouma
    Grealish Zaha Salah Son Foden
    DCL Jiménez or Kane (-4)

  19. Tsparkes10
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Chillwell, TAA, Vardy, Ings safe from price changes?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Chilwell 90%, Vardy 99% on rising

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        fplstatistics.co.uk

    2. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Hard to know these days they can spring from nowhere

  20. DavidKent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Who scores more in the next 4-6 weeks:
    A: Grealish
    B: TAA
    C: Wilson

    Keen to hear thoughts in general on this?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      A

  21. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    FanTeam help?

    Lloris
    TAA Zouma White
    Salah Mane Son Soucek Rodriguez
    DCL Watkins
    (Meslier Boly Mina 4.0)

    1.1m ITB. 1 FT left because I already did Ings > DCL as my transfer.

    Plan is to roll the FT.

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      Looks solid to roll over IB

  22. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 29 days ago

    Did Potter provide any update on the fitness of Lamptey in his press conference today?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 29 days ago

      No- which hopefully means OK. Some suggestion it was cramp he was suffering from.

      1. Look at his face!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Any news on Ryan?

  23. Sharpify
      3 months, 29 days ago

      How's this? About to do a WC.

      McCarthy (Pope)
      Balbuena (Bernardo) Chilwell (Nkounkou) TAA
      Grealish KDB Salah Reidewald (Lookman)
      DCL Kane (capt) Bamford

      Admittedly there are a couple of placeholders in there, but no cash left.

      1. JakeTheRed
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Big waste of money in net. Get Pope down to a 4.0 now.

        Lacking backup in Defence.

        Riedewald AND Lookman ???

        1. Sharpify
            3 months, 29 days ago

            Auto Select strikes! 😉 Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet, and I don't like the look of those two either, but need the prices to get in Kane.

      2. wulfranian
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Do you thinks it's worth to get Holding?

      3. Nightf0x
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Martinez
        Strujik kilman chilwel (sais gomez)
        Foden zaha salah skn (barkly)
        Jimi kane dcl

        Which?

        A) jimi to wilson
        B) foden to fornals
        C) jimi barkly -4 to wilson fornals
        D) sais to belerin/holding/coufal/clyne/taylor
        E) a and d with -4

      4. tbhogal
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Which option is best here guys?

        A) Foden > Bowen
        B) Foden > Ward-Prowse
        C) Save FT

        Martinez (Steer)
        Chilwell, Robbo, Lamptey (Saiss, Mitchell)
        Podence, Salah, Son, Grealish (Foden)
        Bamford, DCL, Kane.

        1. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          May as well save FT if you are benching him

        2. Dynamic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          C

      5. Look at his face!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        What do I do with Ryan? Keep or move on?

        1. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Move on

        2. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          If you can get Mendy in it would make an annoying keeper transfer worthwhile

      6. Dynamic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        What do you guys think about Robertson/Pulisic -> Coufal/KDB for my 2FT?

        1. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Decent longer term moves for sure.

      7. Hulk Smash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 29 days ago

        Priority for this week?

        A) Pulisic out (to Ziyech?)
        B) Saiss out
        C) both for free

        Is it too 'out there' to consider both out for Jota and Chilwell?

        1. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Ive chucked both for Chilwell and Bowen. Tired of the issues with them

      8. Sharpify
          3 months, 29 days ago

          Man City v Liverpool - I'm thinking goals at both ends and a good day for KDB and Salah owners. Thoughts?

          1. Jon Walter's Hatty
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 29 days ago

            I actually think both sides will be frightened to lose to the other and might be a tighter affair. But its guesswork as always

          2. TLF
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 29 days ago

            I also see goals from both teams in this one, don't reckon it will be a cagey game. I think City will take advantage of VVD absence and get a result.

            1. Balls of Steel
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 29 days ago

              This