Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. rozzo
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Martinez Steer
    TAA Saiss Lamptey Johnson Mitchell
    Salah Son Rodriguez Trossard Anguissa
    Kane Ings DCL

    2ft
    0.9 itb

    A). TAA, Trossard and Ings to Zouma, Grealish and Vardy - 4
    B). Saiss and Ings to Chilwell and Wison
    C). Anything else

    Cheers

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      A great long-term!

  2. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Which player needs to go first?

    A Saïss
    B Pulisic
    C Mitchell

    1. gart888
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Mitchell the least useful long term, but the least painful to have right now... I'd probably go Saiss first, unless you think Pulisic doesn't play this week.

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Thanks- ideally want City defender for week 10 onwards so options I see are Saïss to Cancelo/ Dias early or wait to do that and go Pulisic to Ziyech or Zaha now

      2. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        If you have enough playing defenders id say Pulisic. Lots of options

        1. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          For what its worth ive chucked both for Chilwell and Bowen

    2. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Saiss

      Pulisic is just a streaky wussy ... he is going to score big soon ... between his little injuries

  3. gart888
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Double move of Robertson+Brewster to Dallas+Wilson?

    1. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      If you have the luxury and its not for a hit, id say its worth a punt.

      1. gart888
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Yeah, it's not a hit.

        Think I should go Brewster -> Wilson or DCL -> Werner?
        I got in on DCL late, so could sell him for what I paid.

        1. Wolfman180
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          Do you have any other Chelsea players?
          Id say more Brewster to Wilson. DCL can still do well and you'll most likely want him back in for the following 3 fixtures. Wilson keeps ticking over points too

          1. gart888
            • 7 Years
            1 year, 1 month ago

            Also have Chilwell.

        2. camarozz
          • 7 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          If I was getting rid of Robbo (might be doing so myself) I would feel a lot better if I was getting someone better than Wilson with the money tbh

          1. gart888
            • 7 Years
            1 year, 1 month ago

            While I agree with that in general, a front 3 of Kane-DCL-Wilson might be nicer than Kane-Werner-Brewster even though Werner is so much better than Wilson.

  4. Nightf0x
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Which?

    A) jimi to wilson
    B) foden to fornals
    C) jimi barkly -4 to wilson fornals
    D) sais to belerin/holding/coufal/clyne/taylor
    E) a and d with -4

    1. Balls of Steel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      B

      1. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Yeah, that’s common sense

  5. Oliver Tockman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Anyone else thinking about James Maddison?

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Looked great tonight slowly getting back to full fitness. Great diff in a few weeks time id say

  6. camarozz
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    If Rodriguez is out (again) would u consider selling Dcl for Werner as part of 2ft move?

    1. gart888
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Depends on how cheap you got DCL. Werner at 9.3 is great great value if he's on pens and that team is in form.

      1. camarozz
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        That's the prob, have him since gw 1.
        But need to shake things up coz I'm way down in my MLs.
        Have to consider also I want Kdb for Son so have to prioritise

        1. gart888
          • 7 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          If you have DCL for so cheap I'd be hard pressed to sell him until his form slips HARD.

    2. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      He’s probably out or will be limited

      But next week Everton plays the worst team in EPL, Fulham

      So you already paid with 0 and a poor performance from JamesR, what’s one more week?

      He might play against MU, it’s not 100% sure he won’t play.

  7. Sharpify
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 1 month ago

    I'm beginning to think that TAA is an expensive luxury. Maybe time to ditch him and invest the cash elsewhere?

  8. DavidKent
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    I’m torn between Lamptey, Justin or Corful. Any thoughts appreciated?

    1. Oliver Tockman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Coufal for me. West Ham look very solid.

      1. DavidKent
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        I’ve not watched Hammers much. Does he have any attacking return?
        Is he fairly nailed?
        And more solid than Leicester?

        1. Oliver Tockman
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          More attacking potential, maybe not quite as solid yet but better fixtures.

          1. DavidKent
            • 3 Years
            1 year, 1 month ago

            Thanks mate

  9. tabby98
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Mccarthy (Nyland
    TAA, James, KWP, Justin, (Mitchell)
    Salah, Son, Grealish, ASM, (Stephens)
    DCL, Kane, Jimenez

    0.9m ITB 1FT

    A) Hold
    B) TAA out for Chilwell/Zouma/Another defender
    C) TAA + ASM ---> Zaha/Ziyech + Defender for -4
    Or any other suggestions??

  10. Mahjongking
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Digne anybody? If james out i think digne will be taking setpieces,?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      James isn't out?

      1. Mahjongking
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        I say if? Who knows?

  11. wulfrunian
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    For gameweeks 9-10,Rashford or Rodriguez?

  12. UshFPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Sell Robbo or Trent?

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Not a lot in it so maybe sell TAA and reinvest 0.5

    2. Punty McPuntface
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Taa

  13. JakeTheRed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Is it worth taking Pulisic out for a -4?

    1. Mr. Chimes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      I mean there are tons of options you can downgrade to unless your problem is that you've used your FT already.

  14. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Foden > Jota?

    I'm tempted.

    1. Balls of Steel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Bowen with a nicer fixture

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Whatever happened to form over fixtures?

        1. Balls of Steel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          Just my recommendation for this gw...

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Same! But as in Maupay + Pulisic to Werner + Jota

  15. differentgravy
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    A Greenwood > Ward-Prowse
    B Jimenez > Werner
    C Save free transfer and bench Greenwood

    Any thoughts? Thanks

  16. Tmel
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Martinez
    Lamptey Chilwell TAA
    Podence Salah Son Foden
    Kane DCL Jimenez
    (Steer Mitchell Saiss Burke)

    0.5ITB & 2FT

    a) Saiss & Jimi > Coufal & Werner
    b) Saiss & Podence > Coufal & Bowen
    c) Podence & Jimi > Grealish & Wilson
    d) Podence & Jimi > Soucek & Werner

  17. Blue Flag Flyer
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Ziyech or Rodriguez?

    Completely disregarding price and value.

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      A fit Rodriguez

    2. Punty McPuntface
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Rod

    3. FC Hakkebøf
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Ziyech.

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Probably Ziyech

  18. Tmel
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Any better 4.9 or under defender options than Coufal (exc. Lamptey)?

    1. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Not this week. Shaw could be a bargain going forward and I like Dallas

  19. Mahjongking
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Will you start asm over grealish this week?
    Newcastle vs injury saints
    And aston facing arsenal

  20. thetommy14
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Do Pulisic to Ziyech now to catch prise? I don't think he will be fit or just be subbed on at the end of the game....

    1. thetommy14
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 1 month ago

      price rise*

    2. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Im waiting til the presser tomorrow. If he's ruled fit and starts, you’ll be kicking yourself as he will demolish SHU.

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        he can't demolish anyone at the moment, i'm sorry i got him.

  21. Pilgrim62
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Any thoughts on Ryan?
    Any chance he will start?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      We don’t know and is a chance but personally don’t think he starts

  22. Mahjongking
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Saiss to digne or cresswell?

    1. CroatianHammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Oh definitely - Digne I would say, since a few pundits think Utd might show up this weekend

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        He’s thinking of bringing Digne in.

        1. CroatianHammer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          Whoops. Read it as Saiss or Digne to Cresswell... in which case, Cresswell obv. You want the defender with the best fixture run, and that's not Digne.

    2. Punty McPuntface
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Digne

  23. Prison Mike
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Who to start?

    A) Robertson (mci)

    B) Semedo (lei)

    1. Punty McPuntface
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      A

  24. camarozz
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Don't see Spurs presser (after or before euro game) any news if Reguilon will be fit?

  25. ooooo
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    KWP to Coufal? Have 2 FT and no pressing issue might as well burn

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Prefer Masuaku to Coufal. More assist and goal threat. Just not as certain to start in a back 4.

  26. Punty McPuntface
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    For the next 5 would you rather...

    A Wilson
    B Bamford

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Probably B. I don’t think Newcastle create enough.

    2. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      B, wouldnt look too much into fixtures with leeds. Going to attack whoever the opposition is

  27. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Best defender up to 5.5m?

    I like Cancelo but Liverpool, Spurs in the next 2 isn’t ideal.

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      PVA punt. Next 4 superb fixtures and Palace getting the better CHs back.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Hmm, I do like an attacking FB.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          Was thinking of waiting then buying Telles. Should be back after the IB and Man U have West Brom.

          1. Jon Walter's Hatty
            • 8 Years
            1 year, 1 month ago

            If a gambler he is worth a go I guess.

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      I would go for someone like Coufal and get some cash itb for the city bandwagon coming up

  28. FC Hakkebøf
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Anyone else tempted by Jota? With so litte time between games this year, I reckon he will get a lot of minutes. At least the same amount as Foden, which imo makes him a great pick at 6.5.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      It’ll be Mané, Firmino and Salah vs Man Coty, no matter how well Jota has done. I’d wait for an injury or suspension before buying Jota.

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Whoscored seems to think Jota will start

        1. Tempestic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          I mean I just think Klopp will want the defensive aspect of Firminos game vs City, such a trusted member of the team and an integral part of the press but considering Jota cant stop scoring it'll be a very tough call

          1. FC Hakkebøf
            • 4 Years
            1 year, 1 month ago

            He can play 4-2-3-1...

      2. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        this. I reckon Firmino will still start vs City, Jota on around 60 mins probably.
        In easier fixtures tho they can both play in a 4-2-3-1 and I think hes a great pick in that case

  29. Tempestic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Anything else to do here? Just did Saiss > Chilwell
    1FT 0.1ITB
    Martinez
    Chilwell Lamptey KWP
    Salah Sterling Son(C) Barkley
    Werner Jimenez DCL

    Forster - Kilman Mitchell Burke

    Very fearful of Kane this week but have been all along so might as well stick it out one more week till his fixtures turn. Reckon he'll be over 150% EO tho....
    Want to get Jimenez coz I dont think hes good value and maybe upgrade Barkley but I guess saving the second transfer for the IB is the sensible move?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Yep, strong save there.

      1. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        cheers

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Save

  30. FC Hakkebøf
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Maupay, Pulisic and Saiss owners. 2 FT. Suggestions?