Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Aaa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Ryan/Button
    TAA/KWP/Taylor/Kilman/Mitchell
    Salah/Son/Grealish/Zaha/Burke
    Kane/Werner/Maupay

    2ft 0.1itb

    ONE transfer to burn this week, what would it be?

    1. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Has Ryan lost his place?

      1. Aaa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Not sure to be honest, been useless though anyway

        1. Seanigula
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          He was benched last game...you might want to pick a new keeper

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Similar teams and considering TAA to Chilwell

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Surely has to be Ryan?

  2. youzef
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Ryan
    Chillwell TAA Aurier
    Grealish Pulisic Son Salah Foden
    DCL Jimenez
    Bench: McCarthy Justin Brewster Mitchell
    Shall I do
    1.Aurier & Pulisic - > Creswell & Ziyech (-4)
    2. Aurier Pulisic & Brewster - > Coufal, Bowen, and Wilson (-8)
    3.Aurier Pulisic & Jimenez - > Creswell, Bowen/Zaha, and Werner (-8)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      4. Pulisic -> Ziyech

  3. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    I love these physiological approach to fpl management articles by Simon March.

    For me they are as helpful,if not more as anything i read with lots of stats and analysis.

    Cheers Simon.

  4. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Funny own goal. Arsenal equalizes. 1:1

  5. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Start one defender

    A) Robertson (mci)
    B) Ayling (cry)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      A

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Thanks, Miguel lad!

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      The Scottish Roberto Carlos

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Cheers!

  6. Tmel
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Should I prioritise Jimenez > Werner or Podence > Grealish?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Latter long-term, first one short-term. I'd say latter

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Agree. Keep one talisman and bring in one talisman!

  7. Giles G
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Who is the better pick, Zouma or Bellerin??

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Zouma for me

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        me2

  8. Drogba Legend
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Any help appreciated: 1 FT, 0.1 ITB

    Mendy
    Chill - Robbo - Dallas
    Salah - Son - Grealish - Pulisic*
    Kane - DCL - Bamford

    Steer - Saiss* - Stephens - 3.9

    A) Save FT
    B) Pulisic > Ziyech, Zaha, Bowen, Fornals
    C) Robbo > Cress/Coufal
    D) Saiss > Cress/Coufal
    E) Puli + Saiss > Cress/Coufal + Ziyech (-4)
    F) Something else

    Looking to get in City assets (mainly Son > KDB) around GW 9/10 or so.

  9. davies
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Play one:

    A) Mitchell (LEE)
    B) Kilman (lei)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      B

    2. Tingate
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      B

  10. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Hey fam! TAA & Havertz to KDB & Lamptey/Coufal for a hit?

    Gives me the following team

    McCarthy (Button)
    Robbo Lamptey/Coufal Dallas (Mitchell Ferguson)
    Salah KDB Son Foden Podence
    Kane(C) DCL (Davis)

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Chilwell Grealish for me rather

  11. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Brewster > Wilson makes sense doesn't it?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Who'll you benched?

      1. Ze_Austin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        *bench, ffs

        1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Likely Harrison

    2. Tingate
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Looks good!

      Hopefully doesn't give you a benching headache haha!

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Yes

    4. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Yes I did that move this week.

  12. Tingate
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    Guaita
    James - Lamptey - Robertson
    Sterling - Foden - Salah - Podence
    Jiménez - Kane - Watkins

    Forster - Targett - Mitchell - Burke

    £0.6M ITB 2FT

    Think I'm set on Targett > Chilwell, Podence > Grealish & Jimenez > Adams for -4. Yey or Ney?

    Thanks!

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Sounds good to me

      1. Tingate
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Thanks a lot 🙂

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Chilwell Grealish Bamford

      1. Tingate
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        I was set on Bamford because I fancy him this week but I'd be £0.2M short so thought Adams a decent alternative as Southampton love attacking.

  13. Chenku╰☆╮
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    So much love for Bowen.. Stats dont speak it though. so why?

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Cheap, likely up top, may be on pens.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        , passing the eye test

    2. Free Hat
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Passes the eye test. Cheap. Good fix. Nailed so far.

  14. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 20 days ago

    A Pulisic to Ziyech or
    B Saïss to Chilwell

    1. Rinseboy
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      you not already got Chilwell mate?

      A I think

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Oops autocorrect seems to put Chilwell in when I type Cresswell!

  15. FPL_trail_runner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 20 days ago

    So many others without Kane this weekend on here?

    1. Joey Tribbiani
        2 months, 20 days ago

        4

      • The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        I don't have him. Got Son (C)

      • Free Hat
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Here.
        Luckilt only one gw left with agony.

        1. Free Hat
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Luckily*

    2. Free Hat
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Was planning to downgrade Jimmy to a cheaper asset so I could get Man utd mid for gw 9 and so on.

      But now looked into getting Vardy in gw 10 till gw13.
      Then easy swith to Jesus or Aguero.

      1. FourLokoLeipzig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Don’t you think Aguero and Jesus will rotate though? I’d like to get Kun in, but just worried he’s too expensive if he only starts every other game

        1. Free Hat
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Thats the question indeed.
          But hopefully more info till then.

          Main thing is I like Vardy for those fix and hes easy down or upgrade to any other striker.

    3. Udo
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Cavani or Martial?
      And do we reckon Cavani is playing? Ideally from the start?

      1. Free Hat
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Guessing Martial starts and Cavani will be subbed on around 70min.

        But Im not Ole ofcourse

        1. Udo
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Thanks, so those two won't play side by side in any case you reckon?

          1. Free Hat
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 20 days ago

            Just going by recent games I still expect Martial up front , flanked by Rashord and Greenwood on the wings.

            But who knows with the results. Maybe a change of personnel, formation.

            But I think Martial gets the nod if you have to choose between them.

            1. Udo
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 20 days ago

              Well, I was going for Jimi as Ings replacement, but now I am considering those two as well due to their fixtures.

              1. Free Hat
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 20 days ago

                I have Jimmy myself since gw3 and honestly he and wolves dont look very good attacking wise.
                Drops deep and little chances.

                Martial when starting will get more chances the way Man utd play imo.

                1. Udo
                  • 3 Years
                  2 months, 20 days ago

                  Thanks, I think I will follow your thinking. Shouldn't be too "clever" and risk another set back with Cavani. This season is a mess so far.

      2. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Cavani trash

        1. Udo
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          So rather Martial as a Ings replacement

      3. Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Won’t go there at the mo, was planning but retreat to observe further

    4. rnrd
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Probability Ziyech rises overnight guys?

      1. jimbo90
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        think he will

      2. Free Hat
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Likely

      3. Ze_Austin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk

        97.8% now

      4. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Status uncertain if will start

        1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Source?

    5. jimbo90
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 20 days ago

      Martinez
      TAA Chilwell Lamptey (Mitchell Taylor)
      Salah Son Ziyech Grealish Podence
      Kane (c) DCL (Brewster)

      G2G?

    6. Jp2020
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Is Bruno a potentially viable captaincy option this week? Looking at the explosive potential of the Utd attack against a leaky Everton defence he looks a great differential to the 2 Spurs boys

        1. Drizz ✅
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Looked utterly dreadful last two games

        2. Ze_Austin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          He's my VC. Hoping Ole returns to 4-2-3-1 with Martial, Rash and Greenwood up top

          Problem is, that's hope

        3. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          wait one more week imo

      • Rinseboy
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Just Pullisic to Ziyech?
        or would you also hit Saiss to Zouma/Coufal for a -4?

        Team is
        Martinez
        Semedo Lamptey Robbo
        Son Salah Grealish Foden Pullisic
        Kane DCL
        Steer Saiss Mitchell Brewster

        1. Drizz ✅
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Ziyech nailed?

        2. Free Hat
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Not a fan of hits for def.
          But if you want a Che defender for the long run, maybe its worth it.

        3. jimbo90
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          I just did the same except Chilwell rather than Zouma and much happier with my team as a result. Go for it

      • TheSteel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Any update on Pulisic?

      • BEEZUS
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Best Ings replacement for under 8.5m?

      • Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Maddison starting to look the part. Can see him being a great diff at some point

      • lordkippe
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        2FT. Still godt wildcard. What do you think ?

        Martinez

        TAA - Chilwell - Reguillon

        Salah - Sterling - Son(C) - Podence

        Jimenez - DCL - Mitrovic

        Button - Justin - Bissouma - Mitchell

        A : Sterling & Mitrovic > Bowen & Kane (C)
        B : Podence > Soucek
        C : TAA & Jimenez > Coufal & Kane (C)
        D : Other suggestions ?

      • Atimis
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Worth making any changes ??

        1FT 1.6 ITB

        Martinez
        Robo/Reguilon/Chilwell
        Salah/Son(c)/Hamez/Grealish
        Kane/DCL/Bamford

        Martin/Kilman/Mitchell/Stephens

      • Daniel - FH,BB,TC,WC left
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Robbo to Zouma tonight before the price rise or wait on Antonio news tomorrow ? I would hate to loose 0.1m

        1. Daniel - FH,BB,TC,WC left
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Las time I couldn't do Barnes to Grealish because of that 0.1

      • JoeSoap
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Best replacement for Pereira? (could downgrade TAA to Chilwell for more expensive mid)

        A. JWP
        B. Bowen
        C. Jota
        D. Other (0.9 to play with)

        McCarthy
        Zouma, TAA, Lamptey
        Salah, Son, Trossard, Pereira
        Jimmy, Kane, DCL
        Steer, Mitchell, Justin, Mendy

      • Ze_Austin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Just thought of this:

        "Will he rise tonight?" chatter increases the chances of a player rising, especially if lowly owned. More people become aware of the chance of a rise, check prediction sites and see a good chance, and make the move to catch the rise. Thereby increasing the chance the next person sees, keeping the chain going until right before price changes

        The impact should be less for highly owned players, as they need a bigger bandwagon to make that happen

        1. Free Hat
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Maybe better to not have prediction sites.
          Or just one day for transfers at end of the week.

          But its also part of the game and makes it 'fun'

        2. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Every player needs the same number of transfers in to rise 0.1m, regardless of current ownership.

          1. Ze_Austin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 20 days ago

            Nope. They need a net percentage change in ownership to have a price change. The exact net percentage change required hasn't been released by FPL and differs in a few scenarios, like when the player already had a price drop from the initial FPL price (Ziyech, Ings)

        3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Hello Albert Einstein 😉

      • Sweetboi
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 20 days ago

        Which one for the next few lads?

        a) Robertson + Bowen

        b) 4.5 Def + Ziyech

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Coufal Ziyech

        2. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 20 days ago

          Masuaku / Dallas + Ziyech