Pro Pundit Teams

Understanding the difference between bad FPL decisions and bad outcomes

My years playing Fantasy Premier League has taught me a very important lesson: there is a distinction between a bad decision and a bad outcome.

Understanding how to tell the difference between these two concepts is key to FPL success, especially when it comes to your own personal morale and decision-making process for the next Gameweek.

Gameweek 9 gave us a great example. I have been travelling a fair bit on weekends so, recently, I can only catch three or four live games a weekend and the rest is all highlights. This Saturday was a different case. The house was empty, the television remote was exclusively mine, I was all set to watch eight hours of football and I had eight players playing on Saturday, including my captain. The excitement and anticipation was real.

The armband was on Timo Werner (£9.5m) and emotions ran high as I watched him behave like a world class points dodger. For me, it is much easier to accept a poor decision than a poor outcome and this was definitely the latter. It is even more difficult when you’re struggling at an overall rank of three million and you need these good calls to come through. 

But that is part and parcel of the game we play and once you’ve had your ‘tilt’ on the day, the brain functions more reasonably the next, at least for me. You have to ‘trust the process’ and take respite from the decisions you make are good or bad and not look at the outcome. Werner was a good captaincy call based on what we saw and I also bet against clean sheet odds and started Luke Ayling (£4.5m) ahead of Matt Targett (£4.5m). 

Being where I am at the moment, and scoring a meagre 46 points in Gameweek 9, this is what I can take solace in and hope that the outcome matches the decision-making sooner rather than later. There is consolation in the fact that this was a ‘could have’ week and it’s not just a case of Werner being on the wrong side of variance.

There were a lot of players that should have done a lot better than they did in Gameweek and the one I would like to talk about is Patrick Bamford (£6.1m). Leeds United had 52% possession at Liverpool, 53% possession against Manchester City and 67% possession versus Arsenal. They also had a staggering 25 shots on Sunday evening. 

In fact, Marcelo Bielsa’s men are top of the league for shots and shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks and that is all you need to know really to make the case for Bamford. I’m convinced he’s one of the best set-and-forget options in the Premier League at the moment because when it comes to Leeds United, fixtures don’t really matter. 

There was a great article on the Athletic about Bamford which you should definitely read. What impresses is his mentality. Bielsa’s undeterred faith in Bamford is quite heart-warming to read about if I’m honest (I wish someone backed me the way Bielsa backs Bamford) and it has gone a long way in making him the player he is today.  What really stood out to me is Bamford setting himself a target for 25 goals for the season. Whether he achieves that or not remains to be seen but that stats and the eye-test show he is really gunning for it.

My fellow Pro-Pundit Tom Freeman made a great point about Bamford on our podcast The FPL Wire which has stuck with me. He mentioned that Leeds were like Manchester City in the Championship where defences gave them a lot more respect due to which Bamford had a lot less space than he’s afforded in the Premier League and that does ring true. 

Neale mentioned on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire that his goal conversion rate is at approximately 20% right now which doesn’t seem very unsustainable to me and if Leeds United continues to keep playing this brand of football, I don’t see Bamford’s output changing. I’m likely going in on him this Gameweek and I’m very excited about the prospect. 

A lot of questions came in for the Manchester City assets and whether you should get them in. Yes they haven’t look convincing so far but given that their next four home fixtures read Burnley, Fulham, West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle, you have to roll the dice in my opinion. 

I’m not someone who sits on the fence with my opinions. FPL isn’t a game about who has scored points in the past. It is a game about predicting who is going to score points in the future and in my opinion, when that fixture run shows up for a team that has scored the most number of goals in the league for the past three years, you have to roll the dice and go for it. 

Which premium midfielder you pick is up to you but I would definitely get at least one in there for the run and then maybe double if they show signs of form. You have to place your faith in the quality of the manager and the players and hope that their woes (which were compounded by not having a proper pre-season or a fit striker) are behind them.  Historically fixtures have always won and this set of fixtures is too good to not take a shot at it.

Uefa Champtions League Fantasy Panel - Matchday 4

While we’re not sitting on the fence, let’s talk about Diogo Jota (£6.6m). Yes we can’t for sure say if he’s nailed-on to start but his numbers are comparable to his premium Liverpool midfield counterparts. The upside is more than the downside for me especially given the price. Historically, we have seen that he’s a very streaky player and he’s on a hot run at the moment. Get in while he’s hot would be my advice. Even if he doesn’t start, I reckon he’s Jurgen Klopp’s first attacking sub and I would expect him to play at least twenty to thirty minutes every game. If it doesn’t work, you’re only paying a small amount and the game that we play does allow us to transfer players out. 

While we’re talking about Klopp, one thing on my mind is that I need to get Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) as soon as possible. Liverpool seem like the most trustworthy attack in the league at the moment and they have a great run of fixtures right until mid-January. Klopp is very much aware of the patched defence he has but is not compromising playing a more defensive approach (something I thought might have happened). Instead, he’s sticking to the team’s identity and going for goals. 

I’ve gone freestyle with this article and quite enjoyed writing it. Looking forward to your feedback in the comments section and on Twitter as usual. I’m really hoping to see you on the other side with a warm and fuzzy green arrow to talk about. You know, process and everything. Unless a certain Sergio seduces me (it does feel like its too early but I’m writing on a Wednesday afternoon before their Champions League game).  

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932 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Flair
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Pope injured. Sterling hattie incoming.

    1. Surfreak
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Vattie incoming!

    2. Feed tha Sheep
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Since when?

  2. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    ignore the season ticker and give me the best defenders to have over the next 5GWs....

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Chilwell, Cancelo, Robertson

      1. OneDennisBergkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        1 more...

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Any price?

          1. OneDennisBergkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            ideally 5.3 and under, but any price i'll hear too..

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Chilwell, James, Cancelo, Dias, Cresswell, Coufal,

  3. Feed tha Sheep
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    If you could get anyone in to capt this week who would it be?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Sterling

    2. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Vardy

      That's why I'm getting him 🙂

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      KDB

    4. Mighty Wings
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      If I only knew that...

      Probably Vardy, Bruno, KDB, in this order

    5. jomikijiq
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Vardy

    6. OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Vardy

  4. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Which of these options? Captaincy will be on the first player in each scenario.

    A) Vardy (FUL) and Rodriguez (LEE)
    B) KDB (BUR) and Bamford (eve) -4
    C) Fernandes (sot) and DCL (LEE) -4

    1. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 21 days ago

      A

    2. OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      A

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      I like KDB for Captain for the next two

    4. jomikijiq
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      A

    5. tokara
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      A n jota

  5. ALegendJ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    How likely Mitchell starts?

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Unlikely unfortunately as I have him and really could do with him playing

    2. baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Timeto ditch!

  6. Greenbackbøøg…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Who replaces Digne?

    1. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Potentially Nkounkou

    2. huhhh
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      What happen to him?

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Injury

  7. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Is Foden starting against Burnley above, equal to, or below 50%?

    Thanks all

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Don't buy, don't sell

      1. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 21 days ago

        I'm trying to figure out whether to start him ahead of Watkins

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Think the upside is greater with Foden this GW.

      2. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 21 days ago

        I want to sell him for Jota Miguel! He's given me too much pain.

        1. Feed tha Sheep
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          I’m the same but is it worth a -4?

          1. Flair
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 21 days ago

            I think so.

  8. Atimis
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Decided to keep Son for now, so the only place for mid move would be Hamez out.

    Would you do:

    1. Reguilon to Cancelo
    2. Hamez to Sterling/Torres/Jota (KDB not possible)
    3. Both for -4

    Or keep the FT...?

    1. Muzzy87
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      3

  9. Tsparkes10
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Any thoughts? Thinking downgrade Podence and save but may move to a 352 after Vardy plays Fulham? 2FT 0.8 ITB

    Mccarthy
    Konsa Coufal Chillwell
    Son Greal Hamez Bruno
    DCL Werner Vardy (C)
    (Nyland,Podence,Mitchell,KWP)

    1. Muzzy87
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Any way to get Sterling/KDB in? I'm looking at taking Werner out to fund it (below)

  10. Muzzy87
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Afternoon all!

    Not usually one for taking hits...but I want KDB!

    a) Werner, Podence > Wilson, KDB (-4)
    b) Werner, Podence, Saiss > Wilson, KDB, Dias (-8)
    c) Any other combination

    McCarthy (4m)
    Coufal, Konsa, James, Taylor, Saiss
    Salah, Son, Bowen, Podence, Bissouma
    Kane, Werner, Adams

    Thanks so much in advance!

    1. Muzzy87
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      4.2 ITB!

  11. Shark Team
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Pope out according to Sean Dyche boosts even more Man CIty's attackers potential

  12. tc93
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    dias or cancelo for city cover? tough one- mendy looks back in the picture so maybe dias is the safe choice? cancelo may be rotated during the xmas fixtures

    1. Muzzy87
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      I'm leaning towards Dias

      1. tc93
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        yea mendy being back really messed it up

  13. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 21 days ago

    If Pope is out that will swing kdb v salah to Kev for me I think

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Yeah, big news

  14. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Which one? 1FT, 1.5 to play with.

    A. Son+JRod >> KDB(C)+Jota (-4)
    B. Kane >> Vardy(C)

    McCarthy
    Chilwell, Cresswell, Justin
    Bruno, Ziyech, JRod, Grealish, Son
    Kane, DCL
    (4.0, Saiss, Mitchell, Davis)

    1. Muzzy87
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      I'd say A - KDB is a must for me

    2. Party time
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Don’t know about Jota but KDB(C) should be locked in

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Need to make the money somehow, any other suggestions?

      2. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        0.1 short of Saiss >> Killman

        1. Party time
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Probably Jota then but I believe Kdb(C) is enough to cover the hit

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            Yeah, seems the obvious pick with Jrod out of form and Jota looking good.

  15. The Train Driver
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    No Pope, KDB C it is!

    1. Party time
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Even with Pope Kdb would haul

  16. huhhh
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Pope injured? Seems like i shld take the -4 and capt kdb?

    1. Party time
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Yes

  17. Tonyawesome69
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    How is Bailey Peacock-Farrell? He is the number 1 keeper for NI.

  18. Party time
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Kevin de Capitano Let’s go honey

  19. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    So no Mitchell or Zaha then.

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Mitchell injured or you think he just won’t start?

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Ah good point. He said players who were unavailable are still unavailable but I suppose it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s officially out.

  20. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 21 days ago

    Don’t know why people were wondering if Zaha would be available as he tested positive on 5 days ago.

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      What was the gap between salah positive test and him training?

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Was it 11 days?

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          I thought last positive test was thu 19th?

          1. Rupert The Horse
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            Yes. But that’s different. It’s 10 days from your first test, not your last.

          1. how now brown cow
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            Mo was 5 days.

            1. Rupert The Horse
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 21 days ago

              Yes. From his second positive test, not his first.

    2. Would Ed Woodward
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Actually, it wasn't said when he tested positive, just that he had.

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        We were told by a chap that he tested positive on Saturday.

        1. Poison Apple
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          The chap reported zaha is positive on saturday. It doesnt mean its the first day being positive i believe

    3. Poison Apple
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Zaha tested positive earlier than 5 days ago

    4. NateDogsCats
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Roy confirmed his isolation will be over on Saturday, so that means he first tested positive Tuesday/Wednesday last week I guess?

    5. Mufc202020
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 21 days ago

      Bottomed!

      A) Jota & Brewster
      B) Eze & Bamford

      1. dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        are you having to play both each week?

        1. Mufc202020
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 21 days ago

          No no

    6. Joey Tribbiani
        1 month, 21 days ago

        thats it, KDB over Salah for captain

        1. Party time
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          No brainer

        2. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Pope has been making crucial saves in recent weeks, definitely a big miss.

      • arkom
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        In draft fantasy. My 5th mid will be:

        A) Walcott
        or?
        B) Praet (nailed?)

        1. jomikijiq
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          A

      • RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Any playing 4.2m defenders?

        1. jomikijiq
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Possibly Nkounkou now

          1. dbeck
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            why whats happened to Digne?

            1. jomikijiq
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 21 days ago

              France Football says injured in training and out for 2 months

          2. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            Why? Cheers

      • Tcheco
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        I think I'm getting Maddison in for Zaha. Bad FPL decisions & whatnot

      • abaalan
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Play 1:
        A) Jimenez (Ars A)
        B) Soucek (Avl H)

        1. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          a

        2. Tcheco
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          A but Soucek is a good pick this week as well

      • dbeck
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        It may be stupid, feels kind of dumb but i set my WC up to give me this option and i think I am going to pull the trigger on it

        Bruno to Sterling. I cant pass this opportunity to have KDB and Sterling for the next two games (one will become Mo in 2 weeks). Yes i know city havent been firing but for me, i know the risks but the upside of getting this right could be huge.

        Giving me the below:

        McCarty
        Dias Coufal Chillwel
        Sterling KDB Ziyech Grealish
        Bamford Vardy(c) DCL

        Forster Soucek Lewis Targett

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Looks promising on paper and probably smart to have the captaincy away from a City player this GW.

          1. dbeck
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            yeah, cant read the soton vs united game, i could look stupid with this move

      • tc93
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        1.7ITB, 1FT, pick one:

        1) Kane + Stephens --> Brewster + KDB (make KDB captain) -4
        2) Lamptey --> Dias (or cancelo) safe - free
        3) Save and assess next week

        Rest of team:
        Martinez
        Chillwell / KWP / Kilman
        Salah / Fernandes / Ziyech / Grealish
        Kane* / DCL / Wilson

        Button, Lamptey*, Michell, Stephens*

        1. tc93
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          also option 1 I'll switch to 3-5-2

        2. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          Mitchell to Dias

          1. tc93
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            also not a terrible shout

            1. dbeck
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 21 days ago

              yeah, you have Salah, Bruno and Kane as your three big hitters, i dont think you want to hit any of those out

          2. tc93
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 21 days ago

            then then its v difficult for me to get KDB in for this run of games

            1. dbeck
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 21 days ago

              keep an eye on Kane to Bamford and Ziyech to KDB

      • Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 21 days ago

        Nixk Pope injured. Who to bring in...

        A....kdb v burnley

        B.....salah at Brighton

        Thanks

        1. Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 21 days ago

          I’m going to go A with funds to switch to B in gw 12 if it goes pear shaped

        1. Rasping Drive
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 21 days ago

          I will be extremely happy if he can repeat that performance this weekend 🙂

          1. Flair
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 21 days ago

            I will not!