Pro Pundit Teams

Understanding the difference between bad FPL decisions and bad outcomes

My years playing Fantasy Premier League has taught me a very important lesson: there is a distinction between a bad decision and a bad outcome.

Understanding how to tell the difference between these two concepts is key to FPL success, especially when it comes to your own personal morale and decision-making process for the next Gameweek.

Gameweek 9 gave us a great example. I have been travelling a fair bit on weekends so, recently, I can only catch three or four live games a weekend and the rest is all highlights. This Saturday was a different case. The house was empty, the television remote was exclusively mine, I was all set to watch eight hours of football and I had eight players playing on Saturday, including my captain. The excitement and anticipation was real.

The armband was on Timo Werner (£9.5m) and emotions ran high as I watched him behave like a world class points dodger. For me, it is much easier to accept a poor decision than a poor outcome and this was definitely the latter. It is even more difficult when you’re struggling at an overall rank of three million and you need these good calls to come through. 

But that is part and parcel of the game we play and once you’ve had your ‘tilt’ on the day, the brain functions more reasonably the next, at least for me. You have to ‘trust the process’ and take respite from the decisions you make are good or bad and not look at the outcome. Werner was a good captaincy call based on what we saw and I also bet against clean sheet odds and started Luke Ayling (£4.5m) ahead of Matt Targett (£4.5m). 

Being where I am at the moment, and scoring a meagre 46 points in Gameweek 9, this is what I can take solace in and hope that the outcome matches the decision-making sooner rather than later. There is consolation in the fact that this was a ‘could have’ week and it’s not just a case of Werner being on the wrong side of variance.

There were a lot of players that should have done a lot better than they did in Gameweek and the one I would like to talk about is Patrick Bamford (£6.1m). Leeds United had 52% possession at Liverpool, 53% possession against Manchester City and 67% possession versus Arsenal. They also had a staggering 25 shots on Sunday evening. 

In fact, Marcelo Bielsa’s men are top of the league for shots and shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks and that is all you need to know really to make the case for Bamford. I’m convinced he’s one of the best set-and-forget options in the Premier League at the moment because when it comes to Leeds United, fixtures don’t really matter. 

There was a great article on the Athletic about Bamford which you should definitely read. What impresses is his mentality. Bielsa’s undeterred faith in Bamford is quite heart-warming to read about if I’m honest (I wish someone backed me the way Bielsa backs Bamford) and it has gone a long way in making him the player he is today.  What really stood out to me is Bamford setting himself a target for 25 goals for the season. Whether he achieves that or not remains to be seen but that stats and the eye-test show he is really gunning for it.

My fellow Pro-Pundit Tom Freeman made a great point about Bamford on our podcast The FPL Wire which has stuck with me. He mentioned that Leeds were like Manchester City in the Championship where defences gave them a lot more respect due to which Bamford had a lot less space than he’s afforded in the Premier League and that does ring true. 

Neale mentioned on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire that his goal conversion rate is at approximately 20% right now which doesn’t seem very unsustainable to me and if Leeds United continues to keep playing this brand of football, I don’t see Bamford’s output changing. I’m likely going in on him this Gameweek and I’m very excited about the prospect. 

A lot of questions came in for the Manchester City assets and whether you should get them in. Yes they haven’t look convincing so far but given that their next four home fixtures read Burnley, Fulham, West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle, you have to roll the dice in my opinion. 

I’m not someone who sits on the fence with my opinions. FPL isn’t a game about who has scored points in the past. It is a game about predicting who is going to score points in the future and in my opinion, when that fixture run shows up for a team that has scored the most number of goals in the league for the past three years, you have to roll the dice and go for it. 

Which premium midfielder you pick is up to you but I would definitely get at least one in there for the run and then maybe double if they show signs of form. You have to place your faith in the quality of the manager and the players and hope that their woes (which were compounded by not having a proper pre-season or a fit striker) are behind them.  Historically fixtures have always won and this set of fixtures is too good to not take a shot at it.

Uefa Champtions League Fantasy Panel - Matchday 4

While we’re not sitting on the fence, let’s talk about Diogo Jota (£6.6m). Yes we can’t for sure say if he’s nailed-on to start but his numbers are comparable to his premium Liverpool midfield counterparts. The upside is more than the downside for me especially given the price. Historically, we have seen that he’s a very streaky player and he’s on a hot run at the moment. Get in while he’s hot would be my advice. Even if he doesn’t start, I reckon he’s Jurgen Klopp’s first attacking sub and I would expect him to play at least twenty to thirty minutes every game. If it doesn’t work, you’re only paying a small amount and the game that we play does allow us to transfer players out. 

While we’re talking about Klopp, one thing on my mind is that I need to get Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) as soon as possible. Liverpool seem like the most trustworthy attack in the league at the moment and they have a great run of fixtures right until mid-January. Klopp is very much aware of the patched defence he has but is not compromising playing a more defensive approach (something I thought might have happened). Instead, he’s sticking to the team’s identity and going for goals. 

I’ve gone freestyle with this article and quite enjoyed writing it. Looking forward to your feedback in the comments section and on Twitter as usual. I’m really hoping to see you on the other side with a warm and fuzzy green arrow to talk about. You know, process and everything. Unless a certain Sergio seduces me (it does feel like its too early but I’m writing on a Wednesday afternoon before their Champions League game).  

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932 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    That Digne injury is a pain in the ass for Mark. On Blackbox I think he spoke about (finally) selling TAA for Dias - but had the plan to play 4 ATB with Digne starting.

    Having said that, who's to say Digne would have got all that much vs. Leeds anyway. Not a CS anyway.

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      mark had soucek and brewster on the bench so assume one will play, not too bad

  2. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Oof, maybe city is essential this week!
    Either of these worth it?
    A) bissouma and Kane to kdb and Wilson
    B) grealish and Kane to kdb and vardy

    1. krumcake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I would not do B. Maybe A. But I would look for a different way to get City coverage? Are these for a hit?

  3. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    GTG?

    Martinez
    Chilwell Zouma PvA
    Salah Bruno Grealish Son
    Vardy(c) DCL Bamford

    Bench: Soucek Verstergaard Lamptey
    0 FT, 0.1 ITB

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Happy without city?

      1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        I'm willing to take the risk and jump in once the tide turns

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Looks good then

  4. El Presidente
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Do we expect Cancelo to be benched vs BUR? I think he will start and will be subbed off at 60-70 min mark and benched for CL after...

    1. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      no thats what you want

      1. El Presidente
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Not really, I dont own him. It does not make sense to ditch your best defender for someone sidelined for weeks... I would do it using CL already qualified.

  5. Fer Fuch's Ake
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Which transfer do you reckon will be more profitable this GW?
    A- Dallas -> Dias (vs Bur)
    B- Werner -> Vardy (Ful)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      A

    2. krumcake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

  6. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    FFS, KDB was going to be lower-owned before this Pope news 😆

  7. rnrd
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    only for 2 GW would you go with KDB or Sterling?

    I have the feeling KDB could play that very deep role again against parked defense where he walks around the 25-30m area and the assist the assister. I'm wondering if Sterling ins't a better short term option after all for those two home games.

    1. JONALDINHO
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      If Aguero plays sterling won’t have as much of a goal threat. KDB always does well against ptb teams

  8. Dave Dreamer
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Wild Card Thoughts??

    Martinez
    Robertson, James, Bellerin, Taylor
    Salah, Bruno, Son
    DCL, Wilson, Vardy

    Bench:
    Kilman, Souchek, Bissouma

    No City players.....

    1. JONALDINHO
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      4 at the back not the move. I’d do Robbo to a 3.9 and upgrade Soucek to Grealish / Ziyech. Use leftover funds for James to Chilwell

    2. Dave Dreamer
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Team A
      Martinez
      Robertson, James, Bellerin, Taylor
      Salah, Bruno, Son
      DCL, Wilson, Vardy

      Bench: Kilman, Souchek, Bissouma

      Team B
      Leno
      Robertson, Chilwell, Diaz
      Jota, Bruno, Foden, KDB
      DCL, Wilson, Vardy

      Bench: Kilman, Bissouma, Taylor

  9. JONALDINHO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Kane and Zaha to KDB and Bamford(-4)? Gives me this

    Martinez
    Chilwell • Semedo • Masuaku
    KDB(C) • Bruno • Son • Ziyech • Grealish
    DCL • Bamford
    (Steer / Brewster / Dallas / KWP)

    Thoughts on team?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Looking at doing similar move. Not keen on losing Kane but kdb for next 2 looks great

      1. JONALDINHO
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Kane not done much last 4 weeks and mourinho seems to be playing more defensive since the West Ham game. Easy decision to sell just whether to get KDB/Salah

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Not sure it’s an easy decision. Kane is heavily involved so if spurs score then he’s very likely to be involved - plus he has pens. Losing him for a hit could backfire! It’s losing either him or Ziyech for me or going without kdb

        2. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Don’t Think KDB and city has done very much goal scoring wise lately. Not sure it’s all about getting better fixtures and that all the attacking city options will be free scoring again from one match to another

  10. evilfish
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Which Mid do you prefer?

    A) Salah, Bruno, Son, Ziyech, Grealish
    B) Salah, Bruno, KDB, Ziyech, Jota

    1. Fer Fuch's Ake
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B short term, A long term

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Salah, Bruno, KdB, Grealish, Jota.

      That's my ideal midfield.

    3. JONALDINHO
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Salah KDB Bruno Ziyech Grealish is my plan

      1. evilfish
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        That would be nice but not affordable for me, unless I lose Chilwell or Cancelo for a cheaper option

  11. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Neco Williams

    what we saying??

    1. JONALDINHO
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Was very poor against Atlanta. Milner second choice after Trent

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Awful.

    3. PlumaPiedra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      No. Waste of a Liverpool spot to stink up 3rd spot on your bench.

  12. FDMS All Starz
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Who scores more in the next 4/5?

    A) Jota
    Or
    B) Dias

    ...leaning towards B because of fixtures and starts, thoughts?

    1. Fer Fuch's Ake
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      b

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Jota. Dias is a 6 point machine at best I think.

    3. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      A

  13. jb1985
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Seeing that Pope news has got me very tempted to changed captain from Vardy to Sterling. On top of that maybe bring in Torres.

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I don't think adding Torres on the Pope news is necessary. Having one of KDB / Sterling at this stage whilst City are not yet firing is enough IMO.

  14. Shark Team
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Digne ankle injury out for more than a few weeks

    1. Chucky
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      sick of this season.. those with differential picks getting punished...

    2. Henrik Larsson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I was going to keep DCL for foreseeable, but that dents his appeal.

      1. NateDogsCats
          1 month, 25 days ago

          He's only blanked on one week and Everton have missed James, Digne and Richarlison at differing times this season (including all 3 at once at one point too), he'll be fine

    3. Chucky
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Where is this DIgne news coming from? Would you do digne to dias for -4? have Taylor only on the bench...

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        That move has a decent chance of paying off even if Digne was fit and played, lol.

        1. Chucky
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          cheers,done

          1. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Why not wait till the deadline? 😆

      2. NateDogsCats
          1 month, 25 days ago

          France football, and they say he could be out for a decent period of time

      3. ElliotJHP
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Worth moving Mitchell to Nkounkou if Digne is confirmed out?

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          If relying on Mitchell to play and have no money, maybe. Else, no.

          Everton have Leeds, Chelsea & Leicester in 3 of the next 4.

          1. ElliotJHP
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Yeah think I agree, just have absolutely no bench this week with Lamptey suspended.

      4. Oliver Tockman
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Captain options:

        A) Robertson (c)
        B) Grealish (c)
        C) Kane (c)

        1. LSK
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          No others? C out of those.

        2. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Oh no. I wouldn't cap any of those.

          Captaincy priority for me is probably

          Tier A: Vardy, Salah, KdB
          Tier B: Sterling, Jota, Fernandes

          I'd stick with capping one of those guys.

      5. Zlatan F.C
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Those without Salah or KDB at the moment, are you planning to transfer one in this week and for who?

          1. drughi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Son>KDB this week and then get salah some way gw 11/12

          2. JONALDINHO
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            KDB for Kane and then Salah in for Fulham

          3. LSK
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            I don’t have either...Not willing to take out an in form Bruno for a hit so the only way to get one this week would be a -8 selling Jimenez and either Rashford or Son. I’m not sure it’s worth a -8 so probably risk going without.

        • Henrik Larsson
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 25 days ago

          A - Son & Dallas for KDB & Taylor -4?
          B - Son for Sterling
          C - Roll

          News about Pope has me rethinking the City fixtures. I need an attacker for the next 2 surely.

          1. JBG
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            B

          2. Ha.
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Can you get the extra 0.1 for KDB and do B?

          3. Henrik Larsson
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 25 days ago

            That's what I'm doing with A. Really annoying that KDB price rose as I had exactly enough going into this week for Son > KDB.

            I can either downgrade Dallas, Lamptey or Bissouma for to get the 0.1 for KDB but not sure if it's worth it.

            I suppose the question is do I think KDB will outscore Sterling by 4 points over the next 8-10 GWs

        • Ha.
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Captain

          A. Salah
          B. DCL

          Bruno > KDB with FT

          1. Yes
          2. No

          1. The White Pele
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            A2

            1. Ha.
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Not put off by Pool's performance last night?

              (inb4 B team)

              1. The White Pele
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 25 days ago

                Still would prefer him over Dcl this week but maybe there are better options like Varde or City mid.

                1. The White Pele
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 25 days ago

                  Vardy*

                2. Ha.
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 25 days ago

                  Prefer both of those options for sure... but unfortunately don't have them!

                  1. The White Pele
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 25 days ago

                    Go with Mo then

        • PlayPercentage
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Time to get rid of Kane?
          He's dropping deep again...not what I want in an expensive striker.

          1. Ha.
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            One season wonder

          2. OneDennisBergkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            i would say no, but if your looking for an excuse to move to Vardy then its not a bad move

        • OneDennisBergkamp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Following Brendan Rodgers comments..
          Nov 25: "Hopefully [he'll be back] very soon. He played his first competitive football for the second team on Monday, which was really, really good."

          Do we say its safe that James Justin is good for the next few games?

          1. OneDennisBergkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            those are comments regarding Pereira

          2. NateDogsCats
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Definitely should be, sounds like he'll give Ricardo minimum 3 weeks before he considers starting him, plus I was reminded here that he even then may play Justin at CB if he plays 5-4-1

          3. Deeney-is-a-god
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            any thougths on this

            kane, podence -> jota, vardy (C) (-4)
            Already have son ,but no city.

            Not sure if I should rather move for KDB

            1. Ha.
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Don't like that move personally

              I would do Son > KDB

              1. Deeney-is-a-god
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 25 days ago

                dont have the funds tho

          4. Kaptenen
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Cancelo or Dias and why?

            1. Camzy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Cancelo is clearly better than Dias when he plays. I'm prepared to take risks on a higher ceiling player this season.

              Cancelo for me.

              1. The Count of Monte Cristo
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 25 days ago

                If you have a nailed 4th defender I think it is worth the risk.

          5. rnrd
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            2 weeks punt as he will be becoming Salah in GW12, do you think it is silly to go with Sertling (C) for BUR and FUL instead of KDB (C) ?

            1. Ha.
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Holy mojito, you have KDB and Sterling?

              I would still go KDB because of Aguero

          6. Dave Dreamer
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Team A
            Martinez
            Robertson, James, Bellerin, Taylor
            Salah, Bruno, Son
            DCL, Wilson, Vardy

            Bench: Kilman, Souchek, Bissouma

            Team B
            Leno
            Robertson, Chilwell, Diaz
            Jota, Bruno, Foden, KDB
            DCL, Wilson, Vardy

            Bench: Kilman, Bissouma, Taylor

            1. Jeapesy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 25 days ago

              I like team B but not sure about Foden AND Jota, too much rotation risk

          7. Jeapesy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Tough one this week, like everyone else I'm struggling on the final call! 1FT £4.6m itb

            Martinez
            Cancelo Chillwell Justin
            Fernandes Son Grealish Bowen
            Wilson Kane DCL

            Bissouma Dunne Lampety

            These are the moves i'm considering:

            A) Son > KDB
            B) Wilson > Vardy
            C) Wilson & Bowen > Vardy & Jota -4
            D) Kane & Bowen > Vardy & Sterling -4

            Too many options!

          8. Stupendous
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Is Fuchs a decent way into some Leicester at 4.6m?

            Need a 4.6m defender...

            Coufal doesnt have fixtures
            KWP is an option

            1. ElliotJHP
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Castagne back this weekend bud

              1. Stupendous
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 25 days ago

                Ok cheers

            2. Pat Bonner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              Don’t think he’ll play when everyone is fit?

          9. huhhh
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            If you got son and kane, will you sell both? Seems like i got no choice, if i sell ziyech for kdb i need 0.2 more.

            So i can only do kane to vardy for free
            And son to kdb for -4 , but i might still capt vardy.

          10. The Count of Monte Cristo
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Obvious move is TAA --> Cancelo / Dias (FT) leaving 4.7m ITB thereafter to look at adding KDB / Salah to the midfield next GW or this for a hit?

            McCarthy
            TAA** -- Chilwell -- Justin
            Bruno -- Son -- Grealish -- Soucek
            DCL -- Kane -- Wilson

            4.0 -- Targett -- Bissouma -- Mitchell -- [1FT + 2.9m ITB]

            1. Catastrophe
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 25 days ago

              It's a bit awkward where you have all three of Kane, Son and TAA. I would consider Son and TAA -> KDB and Cancelo. Then probably Kane and Bissouma -> Brewster and Salah. You miss out on Vardy but that would presumably mean another hit.