Spot the Differential

Updated fixtures boost case for Maguire and Man United defence

The Gameweek 17 deadline is almost upon us which gives us the opportunity to have a look at some differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks from Manchester United, Arsenal and Crystal Palace, who we think have the potential to make a big impact.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Harry Maguire

  • FPL ownership: 3.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: AVL | bur | liv + ful | SHU | ars

Manchester United are now unbeaten in nine league games, and following Tuesday’s late win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, have put themselves in the thick of the Premier League title race.

One of the key players for the Red Devils during that run of improved form has been Harry Maguire (£5.4m).

The England international has bounced back following a tough start to the season, and could be a shrewd differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a new defender.

Following yesterday’s fixture announcement, United now have a favourable schedule which includes games against Burnley, Fulham and Sheffield United in the next five. In fact, between Gameweeks 17 and 25, they sit top of the ticker from a defensive perspective. Obviously, they need to improve at the back having already conceded 23 goals, but it does feel like progress is being made and a clean sheet in midweek now gives them something to build on.

However, the real appeal lies in Maguire’s goal threat. Since the beginning of the season, the 27-year-old has registered more shots and attempts in the box than any defender in the game, while he ranks third for excepted goals (xG). For context, his 17 shots in the box is only three behind team-mate Bruno Fernandes (£11.2m).

Importantly, Maguire has been ever-present for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side this season, and with his ability to contribute FPL points at both ends of the pitch, is a tempting New Year investment.

Gabriel Martinelli

  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: wba | CRY | NEW | sou | MUN

Next up is an interesting budget option at Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m), who has recently returned from a six-month spell on the sidelines.

The Brazilian has now started back-to-back league matches, and been central to the Gunners’ upturn in form which has seen them beat Chelsea and Brighton and Hove Albion.

Admittedly, it took them a while to get going against Albion, but they found their rhythm in the second half, with youngsters Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m) and Martinelli pulling the strings. The inclusion of the young trio behind a striker has galvanised Mikel Arteta’s side, and with a great run of games against West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United coming up, they could offer real value. 

However, if it comes down to goal threat alone, I’d put Martinelli comfortably ahead right now. His clever movement and knack of being in the right place at the right time will see plenty of goalscoring opportunities come his way, and having netted 10 goals from 26 appearances across all competitions last season, his potential is evident. 

His link-up play with Kieran Tierney (£5.3m) down Arsenal’s left-side has also stood out, which is important considering Arsenal’s next two opponents concede plenty of chances from that side of the pitch.

After a turbulent few weeks, Arsenal will be hopeful of moving up the Premier League table in 2021, and with Martinelli making an instant impact upon returning to the starting XI, they could yet turn their season around.

Eberechi Eze

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: SHU | ars | mci | WHU | WOL

Eberechi Eze (£5.8m) has impressed for Crystal Palace this season, developing into his side’s main creative outlet.

Since becoming a regular starter in Gameweek 8, he ranks top amongst team-mates for chances created, big chances created and successful take-ons, while only Andros Townsend (£5.7m) has attempted more crosses. 

Key to his appeal is this week’s opponents Sheffield United, who are still without a win all season. The defensive data tells us that they have given up a significant amount of chances from their right flank. In fact, only West Bromwich Albion have conceded more from that zone this season, which is relevant with Eze operating off the left in Roy Hodgson’s 4-4-2. 

It’s also worth noting that the Blades have often looked vulnerable defending set-plays, having allowed 72 attempts on goal from dead-ball situations so far, more than any other side. With Eze being known for his ability from set-pieces and drawing fouls from the opposition, he could be set to profit in Gameweek 17.

Palace currently sit 15th in the Premier League table and despite a dip in form over Christmas, looked more assured in Monday’s draw against Leicester City. A win on Saturday would see them rise above Newcastle United, Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers into 12th spot, at least temporarily, and they won’t get a better chance than against the Blades.

While three attacking returns is a fairly modest total for Eze so far, he is an exciting player with big potential, and given his opponents defensive vulnerabilities, could be set to add to his tally this weekend.

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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

1,606 Comments Post a Comment
  1. liiusions
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    The sheer amount of content creators around these days who have awful histories is quite something. Yes this does matter as it shows you know what you are doing...

    1. liiusions
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Good to see my rant will be seen by most

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Do you mean people putting themselves out there as "experts"?

      1. liiusions
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Exactly this.

        1. Hybrid.power
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          Yeah I was laughing at a guys post yesterday promoting his twitch stream where he gives FPL advice. I know this is a big thing worldwide now and it's not just limited to FPL, but I still find it hilarious.

          I also find it hilarious where there are people who do badly, say this game is all about luck, then take the word of random Twitter users as gospel.

    3. DeltaKilo
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      What really gets to me is the “Top 5%” on their Twitter bio...

    4. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Why does it matter to you?

      1. liiusions
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        It doesn’t but they are profiting on click bait videos when they are just recycling stats, likely from this site, and they struggle to play the game themselves

    5. Patio Kev
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I don’t disagree but I think it also helps prove the amount of luck involved in this game.

      You can justify your decisions on all the stats in the world but if that player is benched or the game is postponed or they come of injured then that’s just bad luck.

    6. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I agree!
      I would rather want to know the decision making process of people who are better at the game than me, rather than the one's worse than me.

    7. Studs Up
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      This

    8. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Also the stats they use is sometimes laughable.
      They will compare player A and B by xG
      And then compare C and D by SiTB.

      I feel you can glorify whatever players you want if you choose different stats everytime.

  2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    A punt midfielder, 7.1m ITB.

    Following the article, Martinelli looks a good shout....

    Any others?

    1. Zim0
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      El Ghazi

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        The fixture isn’t the easiest though....

        Any others?

    2. liiusions
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I went Saka last week but if Martinelli is going to play he is the better option imo

    3. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Barnes

    4. Galza-The Wanton Trader
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I’m on Barnes.

      Decent fixtures and has found a bit of form.

      My captain punt this week too 😛

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Love the punt!

        Food fir thought.... hmm

      2. Street Friend
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        I think Barnes if you’re punting is an excellent choice and will the double.

  3. FPL Kaka
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    If the Fulham game was off would we not get an indication from Parker's press conference at 1pm?

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Bloody hope so

    2. Patio Kev
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      You might get an indication about whether they are back training or not but it’s up to the PL to cancel the game not Fulham plus it isn’t until Sunday.

  4. Alisson WondHaaland
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Harrison is at 95 on fplstatistics

    Chances he'll rise between now and the GW 18 deadline?

    Surely people wont be bringing him in when he blanks next week?

    1. Zim0
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Can u not afford if he rises?

      1. Alisson WondHaaland
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        No, otherwise I would go for Raphina lol

        1. Sanchit
          • 6 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          Could be a blessing in disguise.

          I don't think he would increase though.

  5. DeltaKilo
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Own Dias already

    Lamptey to

    A) Double up with Stones
    B) Coufal

    Cheers

    1. krzys
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A

    2. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A

  6. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Best Taylor replacement at 4.5m?

    Other defs is Robbo Dallas Coufal Mitchell

    1. PascalCygan
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Pieters?

    2. Bavarian
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      sold to Holding

  7. Whatever100
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Greenwood or Trossard for 1 week punt in Draft? Ta

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Trossard

  8. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Don't know if anyone has noticed but every 3rd gw Grealish gets a haul.:)

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Hopefully he has noticed it

    2. DeltaKilo
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Yep. He is due 😉

  9. 5678
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Who’s a good captain that not many people will own? I’m chasing

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Vardy

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Mané - Southampton have given away points to left sided forwards this season. Zaha, Son, Werner, Rashford

      1. liiusions
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Good observation - Mane has done well vs Southampton in the past also

    3. DAZZ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Everyone will captain son, kane, salah, bruno. Take a punt on Zaha. 20% owned

    4. Chucky
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I am going party..

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Aubameyang 😯

    6. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      To soon for that?

      1. 5678
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Nah I’m well behind against good players

    7. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Mane or Vardy

    8. ClassiX
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Rashford and potentially DCL (Richarlison is back, which normally helps).
      Vardy and Zaha may also be worth a punt.

    9. Patio Kev
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      DCL is heavily owned but I don’t expect many will Captain this week and he could be a great differential Captain.

  10. krzys
    • 8 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Is Holding nailed for now? I need him to play next 2. Or should I just get Lowton? Just worried that Lowton plays Covid affected Fulham this weekend.

  11. Nay08
    8 months, 18 days ago

    ok so any news on who got covid from man city? need to know before deciding who to transfer

    1. Robben Mee Blind
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Wait for Pep's presser

  12. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    I was looking at James, KDB, Adams > TAA, Saka, Vardy

    But now I’ve no idea with the new fixtures announced 🙁 thoughts?

    Martinez
    Robbo/Dallas/Coufal
    Salah/KDB/Bruno/Soucek
    Kane/Bamford/Adams

    Steer/Burke/James*/Taylor*

  13. Shark Team
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Tip: Start your Chelsea defenders
    A covid-hit Man City will be satisfied with a 0-0 draw but I can see Chelsea winning this.

    1. ivantys
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Can see a 2-1 win but can't see a CS for Chelsea

    2. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      If only I could be confident James is starting

    3. Street Friend
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I’m going to start zouma and Dias....

      Targett coufal on the bench...seem like a good idea?

      1. Shark Team
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Yes I'd do the same tbh.

    4. Robben Mee Blind
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Can see a 0-0

    5. Patio Kev
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Think they are still missing Zylch’s creativity so I wouldn’t worry about them scoring against a decent Man City defence.

    6. ebb2sparky
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I have 2 Chelsea defenders and I’ll start them both unless I sell one before the deadline.

    7. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      1-1 chelsea v City

  14. Drogo
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Bench two.

    A) Zouma (Man City) - Home

    B) Soucek (Everton) - Away

    C) Raphinha (Spurs) - Away

    D) Dallas (Spurs) - Away

  15. Tomsk
    8 months, 18 days ago

    So many people gonna be congratulating themselves on getting 20+ points on bench boost in few weeks and forgetting about all the hits they took to get to their bench boost team.

    1. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Around 20 would be very disappointing considering that merely appearance points count for 16

      1. Dirty Harry
        • 6 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Someone in my league bench boosted earlier in the season and got 0 points from 4 players on the bench

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          8 months, 18 days ago

          Tell them to pick better players

    2. Studs Up
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      What if they prepared and wild carded in 16?

    3. ebb2sparky
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Not everyone needs to take hits

    4. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      If BB and having 15 double gw players I'd expect at 30 pts from the bench

  16. Cojones of Destiny
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Bench one :
    a. Coufal
    b. Cancelo
    c. Dier
    d. Dallas

    1. krzys
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      a

    2. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      benched dallas my self this week

  17. Street Friend
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    If your team for DGW19 was;

    McCarty (4.0)
    Zouma dier coufal Dias (targett)
    Bruno Salah son soucek (Burke)
    Vardy Branford (Adams)

    Would you take a -4 to sell (then bench boost)
    4.0 to ederson/fabs
    Burke to raphina
    Can also add on targett to stones for -8?

    Would you take a -4 to get raphina

  18. ludaslol
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Anything Worth consider a hit? Werner?

    Martinez, Steer
    Coufal Chillwell Robbo Balbuena 3.9
    Salah Son Bruno Raphina Soucek
    Bamford Adams Werner

    1.6 itb

    Gw18: FH
    Gw19: 3.9 + Steer for Meslier and a DGW defender

    1. ludaslol
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      And BB obviously

  19. Gizzachance
    • 6 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    any thoughts/help?
    1ft 0.6 itb. taylor to
    A Stones, no blank, dgw (have cancelo)
    B justin, blank, dgw
    C holding, no blank or dgw, decent fixtures and price
    D saiss, no blank, no dgw (bri, eve, w brom)
    E other ( have cancelo, dallas, coufal, kwp}
    cheers, good luck all

  20. spamking
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    How nailed are
    a) Justin
    b) Lewis

    For the next 3 fixtures

    1. Street Friend
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Justin is playing very well and his place to lose. However my gut says perraira gets one in the double to ease him into fitness and rest Justin

    2. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A 90%
      B 50%

  21. aborg
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Out of curiosity....Why has Pep not been playing Laporte??
    He used to be his no 1 choice defender last season and had done pretty well.

    1. Ruinenlust
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Makes too many mistakes in big games

    2. ivantys
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I think he made a mistake during the spurs game and pep hates him after. Pep's a petty guy.

    3. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Pep increased his level of ruthlessness and has refused to tolerate mistakes, Laporte's error vs Spurs was the last straw - Stones has been playing brilliantly and slotted in with ease.

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        I heard he is angry because of performance in knockout game in CL last season.
        Hopefully stays that way. Stones is pretty cheap for City starter !

      2. aborg
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Oh I see...what mistake was that?

    4. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Pep retaliates when a player makes a mistake.

  22. Sumant Natkar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    What to do with my two FT's my team is

    Martinez
    Chilwell Cancelo Targett
    Soucek Son Kdb Salah Bruno
    DCL Bamford

    Bench
    Brewster Lewis Neco

    1. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Who's you're cap?

  23. Von Lipwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Still undecided, play one:
    Currently on B

    A) Soucek (EVE a)
    B) Raphinha (TOT a)

    1. wulfrunian
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      b

    2. Shineonme
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      B

  24. Jdpz
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Play 2 of them
    a) Dier
    b) Coufal
    c) Justin

    1. krzys
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A C

  25. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    I brought in Stones last night when he was over 100% to rise on FPLstatistics. However, he didn't rise and he's back down to 99% today, why would that be?

    1. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Recalibration. Fpl have this season not counted wild cards in the same way as usual transfers. The stats site counts the number of transfers but can’t know if they are wild or paid for. Also, it’s not an exact science, though the stats site gets better each week and is at its most accurate towards the end of the season.

    2. Sam-not-so-wise
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      don't cry

  26. Podge
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Play raphina or Dallas v Spurs ?

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Raphinha

      1. Podge
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Cheers

    2. Chucky
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Rafi

      1. Podge
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Ty

  27. Sepp Blattered
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Is the Burnley Fulham game at threat?

    1. wulfrunian
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      We don't know.

  28. Rinseboy
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Which 2 would you bench from
    Dias Justin Coufal or Soucek?

  29. stevenroseuk
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Squad okay or do I need to make any changes? I've 0.2 ITB

    Martínez, Steer
    Cresswell, Zouma, Robertson, Cancelo, Dias
    Fernandes, Son, Saka, Grealish, Zaha
    Bamford, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin

  30. dshv
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Missed kane(c) against fulham
    So now hi will take the armband against leeds for 4-3 result match..

    Thoughts?

    Son salah bruno owner also..

    1. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Kane or Bruno. Real toss up.