Spot the Differential

Updated fixtures boost case for Maguire and Man United defence

The Gameweek 17 deadline is almost upon us which gives us the opportunity to have a look at some differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks from Manchester United, Arsenal and Crystal Palace, who we think have the potential to make a big impact.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Harry Maguire

  • FPL ownership: 3.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: AVL | bur | liv + ful | SHU | ars

Manchester United are now unbeaten in nine league games, and following Tuesday’s late win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, have put themselves in the thick of the Premier League title race.

One of the key players for the Red Devils during that run of improved form has been Harry Maguire (£5.4m).

The England international has bounced back following a tough start to the season, and could be a shrewd differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a new defender.

Following yesterday’s fixture announcement, United now have a favourable schedule which includes games against Burnley, Fulham and Sheffield United in the next five. In fact, between Gameweeks 17 and 25, they sit top of the ticker from a defensive perspective. Obviously, they need to improve at the back having already conceded 23 goals, but it does feel like progress is being made and a clean sheet in midweek now gives them something to build on.

However, the real appeal lies in Maguire’s goal threat. Since the beginning of the season, the 27-year-old has registered more shots and attempts in the box than any defender in the game, while he ranks third for excepted goals (xG). For context, his 17 shots in the box is only three behind team-mate Bruno Fernandes (£11.2m).

Importantly, Maguire has been ever-present for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side this season, and with his ability to contribute FPL points at both ends of the pitch, is a tempting New Year investment.

Gabriel Martinelli

  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: wba | CRY | NEW | sou | MUN

Next up is an interesting budget option at Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m), who has recently returned from a six-month spell on the sidelines.

The Brazilian has now started back-to-back league matches, and been central to the Gunners’ upturn in form which has seen them beat Chelsea and Brighton and Hove Albion.

Admittedly, it took them a while to get going against Albion, but they found their rhythm in the second half, with youngsters Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m) and Martinelli pulling the strings. The inclusion of the young trio behind a striker has galvanised Mikel Arteta’s side, and with a great run of games against West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United coming up, they could offer real value. 

However, if it comes down to goal threat alone, I’d put Martinelli comfortably ahead right now. His clever movement and knack of being in the right place at the right time will see plenty of goalscoring opportunities come his way, and having netted 10 goals from 26 appearances across all competitions last season, his potential is evident. 

His link-up play with Kieran Tierney (£5.3m) down Arsenal’s left-side has also stood out, which is important considering Arsenal’s next two opponents concede plenty of chances from that side of the pitch.

After a turbulent few weeks, Arsenal will be hopeful of moving up the Premier League table in 2021, and with Martinelli making an instant impact upon returning to the starting XI, they could yet turn their season around.

Eberechi Eze

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW17-21 fixtures: SHU | ars | mci | WHU | WOL

Eberechi Eze (£5.8m) has impressed for Crystal Palace this season, developing into his side’s main creative outlet.

Since becoming a regular starter in Gameweek 8, he ranks top amongst team-mates for chances created, big chances created and successful take-ons, while only Andros Townsend (£5.7m) has attempted more crosses. 

Key to his appeal is this week’s opponents Sheffield United, who are still without a win all season. The defensive data tells us that they have given up a significant amount of chances from their right flank. In fact, only West Bromwich Albion have conceded more from that zone this season, which is relevant with Eze operating off the left in Roy Hodgson’s 4-4-2. 

It’s also worth noting that the Blades have often looked vulnerable defending set-plays, having allowed 72 attempts on goal from dead-ball situations so far, more than any other side. With Eze being known for his ability from set-pieces and drawing fouls from the opposition, he could be set to profit in Gameweek 17.

Palace currently sit 15th in the Premier League table and despite a dip in form over Christmas, looked more assured in Monday’s draw against Leicester City. A win on Saturday would see them rise above Newcastle United, Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers into 12th spot, at least temporarily, and they won’t get a better chance than against the Blades.

While three attacking returns is a fairly modest total for Eze so far, he is an exciting player with big potential, and given his opponents defensive vulnerabilities, could be set to add to his tally this weekend.

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1,606 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pukki Pies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Which 2nd keeper to have for DGW? Have Martinez.

    Everyone seems to have McCarthy but I can’t see saints keeping a clean sheet in either game to be honest, so would be relying on save points

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      if you can afford - fabiansky is your man

      1. Pukki Pies
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        8 months, 18 days ago

        I think he might be worth the extra for those fixtures

    2. Nay08
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Fabianski the obvious choice if you have the cash. but Meslier is not bad even though Leeds not really have a good chance of cs

      1. Pukki Pies
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Only problem with Fabs is it’d give me 3 West Ham players, and I had one eye on Antonio for the DGW. Ideally need to bring a keeper in this week. Maybe Meslier, but cheaper than McCarthy too

  2. Nay08
    8 months, 18 days ago

    my comment keeps getting cut, not posted in full. so I will try one more time.

    I have options. I will do the transfer this week. which do you think is better?
    A. Stones + Wood
    B. Dias/Cancelo +

    1. Nay08
      8 months, 18 days ago

      damn it. ok i give up. sorry for spamming folks.

      1. NateDog
        8 months, 18 days ago

        It's the arrow sign I think, you can only post it if there's a space on either side (made this mistake many times before)

        1. Nay08
          8 months, 18 days ago

          which arrow sign?

          1. NateDog
            8 months, 18 days ago

            Both I think
            I'll test here < >

            But if I try put it directly after a word it all cuts off

            Cancelo>Dias

            1. NateDog
              8 months, 18 days ago

              Huh I haven't a clue then!

            2. Nay08
              8 months, 18 days ago

              it seems fine from my side. plus I use a slash sign there, not an arrow sign haha. and on the previous comment I post I don't even use the signs. I just simply write "or"
              but thanks anyway mate.

    2. 2hotty
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Dias and how much

      1. Nay08
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Dias/Cancelo + Benteke/McGoldrick( 2 weeks punt)

        1. 2hotty
          • 4 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          benteke if i had to pick but there both a bit rough

  3. 2hotty
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Rodrigo, Wood or Watkins as 3rd striker not gonna FH18 as i can get 9 good players out

    1. Nay08
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I'll take Watkins

  4. zah1d
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Happy new year all.

    My current GW18 team is -
    Martinez
    Kilman
    Fernandes, Son
    DCL, Kane

    I have 1 FT. 0 in the bank.

    Free Hit next week or make a transfer and play it out?

    My current team is below and has 10 DGW players currently.
    Martinez (DGW), Macy
    Zouma (DGW), Justin (DGW), Bernadek (DGW), Kilman, Coufal (DGW)
    Maddison (DGW), Salah (DGW), Fernandes (DGW), Son, Romeu (DGW)
    DCL, Kane, Bamford (DGW)

    Any help appreciated guys!

    1. Warby84
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Mine will be

      Martinez
      Dier Dias Holding Taylor*
      Son Fernandes Bissouma
      Calvert-Lewin

      No free hit

    2. Warby84
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I would free hit on 6, I don’t have free hit, so have no choice

      1. zah1d
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Thanks for your response mate. I'm starting to lean that way as well. In which case, any recommendations on the transfer I should make this week?

        Zouma to Stones or Wan Bissaka?

        1. Warby84
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          Stones

  5. wulfrunian
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Happy new year!Any thoughts?FH gw18.
    Pope
    Taylor/Taa/Reguilon
    Salah/Raphinha/Son/Barnes/Fernandes
    Bamford/Wood

    Johnstone/Dallas/Adams/Coufal
    1ft 0.8itb

    a)Reguilon/Taylor->Balbuena
    b)Reguilon/Taylor->Justin
    c)something else

    1. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      B

  6. Bounce
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Pages are flying right now! Should I just burn my transfer instead of using it?

    1 FT, £0.0 ITB, FH18, BB19

    McCarthy, Johnstone
    Dias, Justin, Dallas, KWP, Coufal
    Salah, Bruno, Son, Raphinha, Soucek
    Kane, DCL, Bamford

    1. NateDog
      8 months, 18 days ago

      You've got a good team hard to see what else you could do with it, good luck!

      1. Bounce
        • 1 Year
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Thanks, good luck as well!

    2. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Answered last page

  7. Flair
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Right, so apparently the Bluemoon forums believe that Ederson, Cancelo and Torres are the three that tested positive. The guy on Reddit who first broke the news said he thinks it was those three too (plus one more). On the other hand... https://twitter.com/FPLCheetah/status/1344921352277544963

    Not sure what to think. I'm going to go against my earlier thoughts and say Cancelo is a big risk.

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Cancelo was pictured in his car though. Surely he'd not have seen driving had he be positive

      1. Would Ed Woodward
        • 2 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Could've been self-isolating in there for the next 10 days.

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          LOL

    2. 2hotty
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      just wait till 130 peps press conference should confirm all

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Wouldn't be surprised if Pep just goes "The players affected by COVID are isolating, we wish the best for them and hope that they get back as soon as possible, etc etc" to not give important information away - though Ederson has already confirmed him being out so we'll see.

        1. 2hotty
          • 4 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          Think he will be under obligation to name who is out covid related

          1. Would Ed Woodward
            • 2 Years
            8 months, 18 days ago

            He won't be, Newcastle didn't, depends if the players don't mind it being disclosed.

    3. NateDog
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I think if you have and have cover maybe just hold and see but I wouldn't go bringing him in.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Tweet in question. Nothing confirmed either way.

  8. Milkman Bruno
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Who to captain? Thanks in advance

    A) Son
    B) Kane
    C) Vardy
    D) Salah
    E) Bruno

    1. Cruyff Turn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Kane

    2. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Going for Salah third week in a row

  9. Jdpz
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Best striker under 6.1m?
    (for 17 gw, 19gw , 20, 21, 22gw)

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Has to be either Adams or Watkins. Flip a coin on which one though. I’ve owned Adams for a few weeks and he’s scored little.

    2. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Rodrigo in form and tempting for me

  10. Danstoke82
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Captain?

    A) Kane
    B) Bruno
    C) Son

    Thanks all

    1. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      B

  11. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    so, best arsenal defender?

    A tierney (5.3)
    B bellerin (5.1)
    C holding (4.4 - but is he nailed?)

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A

    2. 2hotty
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      im going tierney but holding is a bargain

  12. ooooo
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Cresswel or Justin? Have stones Dallas Coufal Taylor

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Justin. Not a fan of the WHU double up even with a DGW on the horizon

    2. Milkman Bruno
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Cresswell better fixtures for the double but you have Coufal so it’s tough. Justin owned by a lot

    3. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Justin proved to be good in long run

  13. djaddy
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Would you bench

    1) Dier (LEE)
    2) Justin (New) - Have Wilson
    3) Coufal (Eve)

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      3

      1. djaddy
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Thanks. That's what I was leaning towards, but not sure whether it is the done thing to have a defender and forward playing each other.

    2. djaddy
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Have already benched Cancelo, as Chelsea away

    3. Matjes_taet
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      1

  14. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    James and taylor... ye reckon fit for 19?

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Honestly cannot see Taylor being fit to play in both with a hammy injury. May feature in one but can’t see Burnley returning big numbers in the DGW

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Cheers dan

  15. Jdpz
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Adams, Watkins or Haller for 17 and 19gw?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Antonio gamble?

      1. Jdpz
        • 1 Year
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Will he play?

        1. kennethrhcp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          That's the gamble part 🙂

    2. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Watkins

    3. Matjes_taet
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Watkins

    4. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Watkins

  16. Matjes_taet
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Start 1 of 3.

    Coufal, Soucek or Antonio?

    1. Goodricke
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I have all 3 starting. Brought in Antonio this week (DGW in mind). If i had to start only 1, would be Antonio.

    2. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Soucek

  17. pokercroc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Which of my Goalkeepers should I play wk17???!!!!
    McCarthy or Meslier

    1. Goodricke
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Messlier will make more saves, but will also concede more (speaking as a Leeds fan)

    2. Matjes_taet
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Would go with Meslier.

    3. pokercroc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      ....I should add

      Ive Son and Kane in my team... and Salah

    4. pokercroc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      thank you for advice guys. much appreciated.

  18. Goodricke
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Any hit taken for DGW players is relatively a -2 as they get 2 games for the hit, and if they play and blank (without penalties) will cancel out any hit incurred. As I'm FH for gw18, my -8 this time and (possible) -4 next time will be more like a -6 as all players will get 2 outings.

    Speaking of the DGW, only Son and Kane left who haven't got a DGW (yet?), so Son to:
    KDB
    Raphinha
    Sterling
    Keep?

    Fancy Kane v Sheffield, so unless his legs fall off tomorrow, he's staying.

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Agree, I'm taking a -32 to play my BB, it's basically a -4, if that.

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Here we go again

  19. Brosstan
    • 7 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Really want Lookman but this no news about the game is ruining FPL.

    Pathetic

    1. NateDog
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Definitely a season definer

  20. wulfrunian
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Unpopular opinion but i think that ManCity will concede goals in both games on dgw19.

    1. 2hotty
      • 4 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      U know what they say about opinions??

      1. wulfrunian
        • 4 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        Doesn't matter.See you after dgw19.

        1. 2hotty
          • 4 Years
          8 months, 18 days ago

          what doesnt matter???

    2. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      You think or you wish?

  21. CRO KLOPP
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    This is my team for gmwk18

    Martinez
    Mitchell
    KDB Son Bruno Grealish

    I can Save FT and for a hit get Rashford and double City defence (so 3 more) and lose Salah and bring him back in 19
    A) do this
    B) FH

  22. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Is Hause nailed for Villa?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I wouldn't put my hause on it

    2. little_wizard123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Not starting today.

  23. Original - Wolves Ay We
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Still can't decide GW19, BB or TC.

    1. Goodricke
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Ask yourself this:
      Will your TC (2 matches x 3) choice score more than the 4 (4 x 2) on your bench?

      1. Mauricios Cappuccino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        8 months, 18 days ago

        It's not really 2 x 3 for your TC, as you would Captain the same player without the chip and get double their score anyway.

    2. Sanchit
      • 6 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      It's Salah/your Cap Vs the 4 bench players. Who do you think scores more?

  24. Jdpz
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Best move?
    A) Taylor >>> Alioski
    B) Wood + Taylor >>> Stones + Rodrigo (-4)
    c) Wood + Taylor >>> Alioski + Watkins/Haller/Antonio?

    1. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 months, 18 days ago

      C

  25. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 11 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    David Moyes: "I thought even with the little bits when Michail came on he made a bit of a difference. He gave us something but I’m probably having to take him bit-by-bit. We’re not sure how much we can get out of him & I’m loathe to lose him to another injury."

    that's antonio crossed off dgw plans, can't see him starting 2 games in a week

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Was thinking of Adams > Antonio but this news has put me off. Looks like I’m stuck with the former for a little while longer!

    2. NateDog
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I'm wondering if for the DGW he's still a better option than Wood who I currently have, he might get more in a single appearance than Wood does in 2 (and with Barnes and Rodriguez fit it's not completely guaranteed he would play both anyway)

  26. Gabbiadini
    • 4 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Bench one of Stones, Dallas, Coufal and Mitchell.

    TY.

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 8 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Mitchell

    2. Drogo
      • 9 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Mitchell

    3. Goodricke
      • 5 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      I have benched Dallas. Leeds have won 1 and drawn 1 of their last 21 matches in London.

      The Whites have not won in London since the 3-1 victory at QPR in December 2017.

      https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/sport/football/leeds-united/crystal-palace-4-leeds-united-1-whites-out-luck-bizarre-eagles-loss-london-curse-continues-3028777

  27. Milkman Bruno
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Jose Mourinho

    Playing against a team known for its attacking play. Am I the only one worried that he will play his usual negative defensive tactics? Leeds in theory should be caught out on the counter but spurs were lethargic last few games and Leeds are off the back of two clean sheets

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      • 2 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      It'll be an interesting game, two managers that are the complete opposite in how they see football.

  28. Drogo
    • 9 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Bottomed

    Bench two.

    A) Zouma (Man City) - Home

    B) Soucek (Everton) - Away

    C) Raphinha (Spurs) - Away

    D) Dallas (Spurs) - Away

    1. Matjes_taet
      • 3 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      A & D

  29. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 5 Years
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Any help please. 2 FT 0 ITB

    Martinez
    Robbo/Dallas/Coufal
    Salah/KDB/Bruno/Soucek
    Kane/Bamford/Adams

    Steer/Burke/James*/Taylor*

    1. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 months, 18 days ago

      Perhaps downgrade James to upgrade Burke

  30. Heisenberg W. W.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    8 months, 18 days ago

    Get Holding or one of the following for DGW
    1. Alioski
    2. Balbuena

    Current defence: Coufal+Dallas+konsa+Taylor+Bernardo

    Going to wait on Taylor until closer to DGW