Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

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639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. sunzip14
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Spurs game ON means I don't need to WC/FH now. What can be done with 2FTs and 0.1 itb to this team? Will most probably FH19.

    McCarthy*
    Dier, Holding, Mitchell
    Grealish*, Bruno, KDB, Son, Zaha,
    Kane, DCL
    Forster*, Brewster, Coufal*, Justin*

    Planning McCarthy>Leno and Grealish to a mid up to 7.2. Who should I get?

    A) Saka
    B) Gundogan
    C) Foden
    D) Smith Rowe
    E) your recommendation

  2. Andy_Social
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Woah, FPL site has the rearranged fixtures inked in already!

    1. Pukkipartyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Whaaat?

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        FPL must have got the news ahead of all other official sources!

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Don't see it changed?

    3. Don Rogers FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      not on mine

    4. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Not changed for me 🙁

    5. The Train Driver
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Andy cheating...

      1. Gazwaz80
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 10 days ago

        He’s right...

      2. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        How do I upload screen grab?

  3. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    For FH18

    A) ESR, Rashford, Stones (no bench)
    B) Saka, Foden, Telles (COVID proof bench)

    DDG
    Tierney Cancelo XX
    KdB Fernandes Son XX XX
    Laca Kane

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Prefer ESR over Saka as more of a differential, however, I think you need some Covid-proof bench as you say.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        I would have Yedlin in A but no one else.

        It certainly seems more template though and I am not super keen on double City defense vs double City attack. But Rashford is a very good pick this week...

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 10 days ago

          I agree in terms of Rashford. My suggestion would be to maybe downgrade Laca to Wilson if you would consider it? I have provisionally gone with

          Darlow - Sanchez
          Tierny - Cancelo - AWB (Clark - Mitchell)
          KDB - Bruno - Son - Rash - ESR
          Kane - Wilson (Brewster)

          Main difference being Wilson over Laca

    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      A, consider Holding/Stones over Tierney/Cancelo to get a better bench.

  4. Captain_Shirokov
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Here's one for ye:

    A) Use FH this week, get out a tasty XI, two 2fts to get out a strong DGW19 team and use TC on KDB. No hits.

    B) Use 2fts this week (Salah to Son/Grealish to Saka) and get out 8 players (no hit), get out an "ok-ish" DGW19 team and use TC on KDB.

    Leaning towards A.

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      You'll only have 1FT after using FH for A.

      1. Captain_Shirokov
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Oh really? But I have 2fts now?

        1. Studs Up
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 10 days ago

          You start with one FT the week after FH

        2. Would Ed Woodward
          • 2 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Yep, you'd only have 1 after playing the chip though.

  5. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Best Martinez replacement if we assume the Everton game is also off?

    A) Areola
    B) Ramsdale
    C) Guaita

    Can't afford Leno

  6. Ginkapo FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Sigh, now I need to adjust my team to fit Reggy in. This changes everything!

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Lloris just as good.

  7. DeadStar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Looks like the Premier league expect the Villa Everton game to be off too to me. They've moved Chelsea Fulham to the same spot now.

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Means nothing, two games can be played simultaneously

      1. DeadStar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        With the whole TV thing I thought it would be less likely. Seems no coincidence they've chosen to overlap with the Villa game.

    2. Ginkapo FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Or Everton vs Fulham switches the other way

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Everton vs Villa

    3. LSK
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      The Villa Everton game is moved to Sunday

      1. DeadStar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Oh bril thanks! That makes sense. I didn't think they would overlap games.

    4. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Villa v Everton is a day later

  8. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Everything confirmed now -

    https://twitter.com/FulhamFC/status/1348611869221687298

  9. Finding Timo
      3 months, 10 days ago

      All, I will have 6 players in GW18 or can get 7 if take a -4 - team would be Kane, son, holding, Wilson, KDB & stone, & Fernandes - do you think still best not to FH?cheers

    • Oooo Matron
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Would you FH this current team?

      Dier Dias
      Fernandes Son KDB Sterling
      DCL Brewster

      Not playing: Martinez, Konsa, Grealish, Balbuena, Sterling (injured?)

      FH team:
      Ge Gea
      Dias Dier Holding
      Fernandes Son KDB Saka Rashford
      Kane Lacazette

      Subs: Brewster, Kilman, Mitchell

    • Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Non-FH18ers survive.

      1. UNDERWORLD7
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Indeed, thank goodness

      2. Ginkapo FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Shouldnt be permitted giving the premature moaning that occured

      3. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        In what sense? Sorry if it's an obvious question

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Villa vs Spurs getting called off would have screwed a lot of us over, I myself had 5 in that game. Instead, just losing 2 and can field 8 - perfectly happy with that.

          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            I see, thanks. I'd been planning for BB19. The additional Villa/United fixtures made me consider not using my FH18 but, now it's Spurs v Fulham rather than Villa, I'm back to using FH18!

        2. sunzip14
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Non FHers have planned from some gws ahead to have enough players on 18 to nullify the advantage of FHers and save the chip for later GWs.

          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Cool, thanks. Today's changes have actually made up my mind to go FH18. As I have two Villa and only one Spurs, I could have got to 8 players for BGW18 with FTs but today's changes mean I'll stick with the original plan of FH18.

      4. sunzip14
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        phew!

      5. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Actually, if anything more likely to use it now as I don't have Spuds and they have a better game.

      6. abhirup780
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Depends on the team. Some people may have Triple Villa with 1 or no Spurs.

    • sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Thoughts on Villa regarding the DGW? Likely to play one game or none?

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        We still don't know the seriousness of the outbreak - how many first teamers are out. Important news still pending there.

      2. Sarri-ball
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        I think fact have moved there game to the sunday from the sat suggests it will be ok

      3. Flynny
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Hopefully both??

        Sounds like they were close to playing today....

    • Niho992
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Harry C then

      1. UNDERWORLD7
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Not at all! Fulham resurgence

    • PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Premier League just tweeted confirmation of the fixture changes.

      Thread here: https://twitter.com/premierleague/status/1348613225152212993

    • Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      @Everton
      Our @premierleague trip to Aston Villa has been put back a day and will now take place on Sunday 17 January, 12pm (GMT) kick-off. #AVLEVE

    • SomeoneKnows
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Cancelo Stones
      KDB Bruno Son
      DCL Kane

      Non Playing: Martinez, Forster, Dallas, Bednarek, Douglas, Grealish, Soucek, Bamford

      With 0 ft and 2 mil itb should I:

      A) Take a -4 hit and get De Gea for this week and next week's BB
      B) Use the FH card
      C) Do nothing and field 7 players

    • Tsparkes10
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Naughty team...

      DDG
      Reguillon Tierney Cancelo
      Son KDB Bruno Gundogan Saka
      Kane Martial
      (4.0, Brewster, Kilman, Mitchell)

      1. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        nice

        1. Ronnies
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Reg nailed ? Davies lurking

    • drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      smith rowe is an revelation on a FH

    • Silecro
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Free Hiters, regarding city assets, are you going :

      A) 2 ATK + 1 Def or
      B) 2 DEF + Kevin

      1. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        B

      2. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Probably B

      3. Mr. O'Connell
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Now that spurs is on and every man and his dog will have Kane and Son, it's gotta be B.

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          You can have Kane, Son, KDB, Foden, Cancelo if you fancy the punt though....

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 8 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Yeah Foden or Gundo are decent punts I guess. Doubt most will be willing with a midfield of

            KDB, Bruno, Son, Rashford, Saka

            Seeming the safest route

      4. Von Lipwig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        still trying to decide if Foden is worth the risk. Prob A

        1. Von Lipwig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Sorry meant B

          1. Silecro
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Yeah I'm also on B (Stones, Cancelo, KDB)

    • Gudjohnsen
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Grealish to Rashford for -4?

      1. GuenDoozy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Yup

    • CobraKai
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      If I Free Hit will I lose my 2 FTs and only get 1 transfer back next week ?

      1. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Yes

        1. CobraKai
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Damn :(. Ty.

    • Tonyawesome69 FHXX
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Everton's match at Aston Villa will be rescheduled from Saturday 16 January 17:30 GMT to Sunday 17 January 12:00 GMT, and will remain live on Sky Sports in the UK.

      1. Corgzzzz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Which would suggest Villa keep their DGW.

    • ratski
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Can't decide stones or cancelo.
      Stones now seems nailed and with walker about cancelo is still a rotation risk so not sure he's worth the extra £

    • Hryszko
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      If you could Field these 8 players for this week? Would you, or would you hit the Free Hit button...

      Have all my chips intact, 0FT and 0.3m in the bank.

      Dier, Stones, Holding, KDB, Bruno, Smith Rowe, Kane & DCL.

      Players not playing: Salah, Martinez, Bamford & no playing subs.

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        I wouldn't because you got 3 of the big hitters.

      2. Mr. O'Connell
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        I def wouldn't free hit that. I've got 8 and 2 of them are Mitchell and Brewster. Yours far superior to mine.

    • Lindelol
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      left with only 4 GW 18 players 😀

      1. Kabayan
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Only Kane, Son and Bruno for me this week

    • Captain_Shirokov
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      If I have 2 fts now, don't use either, play FH this week - will I still have those 2 fts for DGW19?

      Surely? Would be kinda unfair otherwise?

      1. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        No they are lost

      2. Lindelol
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        one only

    • Heavy Data
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Any idea why sterling is flagged?

      1. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Pep said he wasn't fit

    • Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 10 days ago

      a) Lloris & Holding

      b) Leno & Dier

      A or B???