Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

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639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. sunzip14
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Grealish to who for a ft?

    A) Saka
    B) Smith Rowe
    C) Gundo
    D) Foden

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      D then C
      However if Villa get a TGW, you’ll regret it

      1. sunzip14
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        will FH next week

        1. HuttonDressedasLahm
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          D then,

  2. Catastrophe
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    A) DDG, Cancelo, Telles, Foden (McGoldrick, Coady, Yedlin)
    B) Darlow, Dias, Stones, Rashford (Brewster, Mitchell, Douglas*)

    Cheers.

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Not double Utd defence

      1. Catastrophe
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Cheers - B then?

    2. Dexters Laboratory
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Roughly my exact decision to.. Think I'm 70% leaning towards A. A Covid proof bench and the fact that the defense is a lot better

        1. Catastrophe
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Cheers. My concern is presumably DDG, Telles and Foden are all rotation risks - I expect all to start, but still...

          1. Dexters Laboratory
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Since when is DDG a rotation risk? .. the other two maybe but fully expect them to start

              1. Catastrophe
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Henderson has had some game-time recently. As I say, I expect him to start - but there is a small risk there (to be fair - same with Darlow with Dubravka back although again expect Darlow to start). Would be gutting to not have a playing GK on FH.

      • Wings Fan
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Any suggestions for changes to this FH? Tried to have a decent playing bench as I'm fretting about games being called off at the last minute.

        Lloris

        Stones - Maguire - Holding

        Fernandes - KDB(v) - Foden - Saka - Son

        Lacazette - Kane(c)
        --------------------------------------------------------
        Ryan - Saiss - F Fernandez - Brewster

        1. b91jh
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Sanchez to replace Ryan.

          1. Wings Fan
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Thanks - didn't realise he'd nabbed his place!

      • b91jh
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        FHers, who are the two city players to partner KDB in your lineup?

        A) Dias
        B) Stones
        C) Cancelo
        D) Gundogan
        E) Foden
        F) Sterling
        G) Jesus
        H) Others

        1. Orion
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          A&B

        2. Dexters Laboratory
            3 months, 10 days ago

            C and then E or B

          • PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            I'm currently on BC. Can see the appeal of EFG etc but Pep roulette and Sterling's price the obvious concerns.

          • Runaway
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            I would go AC

        3. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Going to hold off until tomorrow but currently thinking this as my FH18 team:

          Darlow
          Cancelo Stones Tierney
          KDB Bruno Son Rashford Smith Rowe
          Kane Wilson

          Areola Holding Mitchell Davis

          How about it?

        4. Inazuma X1
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          When are the FA cup draws?

          1. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            should be tonight

          2. THFC4LIFE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            7.10pm tonight

        5. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Cancelo - Dias - Dier - Holding
          KDB - Bruno - Son
          Kane

          Fine to ride out BGW18 with this 8?

          1. Original Pirate Material
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Absolutely mate.

          2. 2OLEgend
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Absolutly

            • PascalCygan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              For sure. Not missing many - if any - big hitters FHers like me will want.

            • sunzip14
              • 4 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Yes

            • Flair
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Cheers guys. Good luck.

            • Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Defo

            • HuttonDressedasLahm
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Take a hit for a Utd defender/mid then got for DGW too?

              1. Flair
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Will look at it, cheers.

          3. Original Pirate Material
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Buzzing with that Spurs news, needed that so I can save my FH.

            1. HuttonDressedasLahm
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Doesn’t work for me
              1 Spurs 2 Villa and was only on 7 anyway

              Pushed into a FH

          4. Fantasydreamer
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Is bench boost in GW19 still a good option with the potential of games being called off? Got the squad but worried it may be wasted....

            1. Andy_Social
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              I'd wait until the last minute and make sure there are no uncertainties with matches - impossible to be 100% sure even then.

            2. b91jh
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              I will BB if the first Leeds and West Ham match looks likely to go ahead --- good fixture on paper, while the second one is a bonus.

          5. Jimmy Boy
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            For a -4 hit I could get this eight-man team out for GW18, worth saving the FH?

            *
            Dias - Reguilon - Tierney
            KDB - Bruno - Rashford - Neto
            Kane

            The -4 transfer involves getting rid of Salah which could be risky:
            Salah > KDB
            Balbuena > Tierney (-4)

          6. Sun Jihai
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            @LHatfield_Star
            Bad news at Shrewsbury Town.
            Two more positive coronavirus cases and Lincoln game called off.
            Decision to be made on FA cup fixture this week, but looking more and more likely Southampton will be given a bye

            There is a risk that the Shrewsbury FA Cup game could be moved into GW19 and remove the double for Soton + Leeds but this is looking smaller now

            1. Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Just give Soton a bye. Madness to play around with PL fixtures.

              1. Sun Jihai
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Agree

              2. Wılly
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                That's not really fair, is it? They've earned their place to play and should be entitled to do so.

                1. Sun Jihai
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  True, but precedent is there with Leyton Orient in the EFL Cup and the fixture pileup is so intense

          7. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            What's better?

            A) Leno, Dier, Saka
            B) Lloris, Tierney, ESR

            Basically, is Saka over ESR worth some defensive downgrades.

            1. Runaway
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              B for me

          8. FPL Kaka
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Is Lindelof nailed for GW18 do you reckon?

            1. Tonyawesome69 FHXX
              • 2 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              OGS presser at now

              Latest info before presser
              Pogba update this afternoon, but OGS said only one of three - Pogba, Shaw or Lindelof - would make the Burnley game.
              https://twitter.com/BenDinnery/status/1348573555475283970?s=19

          9. Artemon
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Was set on holding Free Hit until losing Martinez/Watkins. I currently have:

            Stones
            Dias
            Mitchell
            Maguire

            Son
            Bruno
            KDB
            Burke *

            Brewster *

            0m ITB & 0 FTs.

            9 with fixtures but 2 very ropey players in Burke/Brewster.

            Free Hit or run with it??

            1. Would Ed Woodward
              • 2 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              At least it's a good week for Burke and Brewster.

          10. wasp3000
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Fulham Fixture switches...

            1. wasp3000
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Spurs - Wednesday 13 Jan, 20:15
              Chelsea - Saturday 16 Jan, 17:30

              1. Andy_Social
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                And with Fulham playing Man U on the 20th, there will be tired defenders to dance around.

                1. HuttonDressedasLahm
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Bruno TC DGW

                  1. Andy_Social
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    Maybe - he plays Liverpool first; could get rested v Fulham.

          11. RED_ARMY
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Robbo + Salah to KDB + Cancelo for a -4?

          12. wattalowz
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Worth FH?

            Dias Cancelo Lewis*
            Son KDB Bruno
            DCL

            1. sunzip14
              • 4 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              yes

          13. Andy_Social
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            So after all this, what do you think are the chances of Villa still returning a last-minute covid test sheet with enough positive cases to call the match off ?

            1. HuttonDressedasLahm
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Huh?

              1. Andy_Social
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Games have been called off hours before kick-off due to late covid test results.

            2. 2OLEgend
                3 months, 10 days ago

                The match is off mate

            3. Kun Tozser
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              This article aged well

              1. Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                ... because?

                1. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Rich not confirm out, but does make him more risky.

                2. Kun Tozser
                  • 5 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Ah ok my bad Everton game move is still in the GW

            4. L'Aeroplanino
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Watkin -> Wilson an option now?

              1. HuttonDressedasLahm
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                No
                Potentially injured

                1. L'Aeroplanino
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  ta didn't know that

            5. Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Dias Cancelo Mitchell Kilman
              KDB Bruno
              DCL Brewster

              Definitely I should Free Hit right?

              Can see gains of more than 20 points I think.

              1. Camzy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Definitely FH that. You only really have 5 players.

            6. The Train Driver
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Imagine several tgws in 19 and FH intact... Yummy!

            7. Joey Tribbiani
                3 months, 10 days ago

                This good enough for GW18?

                Leno
                Dias - Maguire - AWB
                KDB - Bruno - Son

                1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Ayyyyyy

              • Inazuma X1
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                FPL updated with the Villa blank!

              • Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Play following 11 or FH? Worry is that plenty will have Spurs + Arse attacking assets on FH and points swing could be big... Any thoughts would be much appreciated. Plan to play FH19.

                De Gea

                Dias, Holding, Dier, Mitchell

                KDB, Son, Fernandes, Sterling

                DCL, Brewster

                Subs: Button, Taylor, Grealish, Bamford

              • SomeoneKnows
                • 5 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Cancelo Stones
                KDB Bruno Son
                DCL Kane

                Non Playing: Martinez, Forster, Dallas, Bednarek, Douglas, Grealish, Soucek, Bamford

                With 0 ft and 2 mil itb should I:

                A) Take a -4 hit Forester > De Gea for this week and next week's BB
                B) Take a -4 hit Douglas > Dier for this week and next week's BB
                C) Use the FH card
                D) Do nothing and field 7 players

              • thepuntmaster
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Are Arsenal defenders really that sure of a pick on FH? Palace can be dangerous going forwards?

                1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Oh for Christ's sake!

                2. Sun Jihai
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Feel for anyone that was building for BGW18 with multiple Villa and DGW
                  FHers win!

                  1. Sun Jihai
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    *DCL

              • Flynny
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                What are the chances of villa's 2 x dgw19 fixtures taking place??

                Seems like they were quite close to playing midweek so chances OK?

                My bench boost depends on it! Thanks

              • faux_C
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                DCL out lol

                1. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  FH even easier now!