Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99. A FREE trial is now available during December.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    I think this is the FH team I’d want, but 0.3 away.
    Who best to downgrade?

    Leno
    Stones Cancelo Dier
    Bruno Rash KDB Son Smith-Rowe
    Lace Kane

    Mitchell Davis Douglas

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Dier to Fernandez or Rash to martial (343)

    2. Warby84
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Dier to yedlin

  2. DA Minnion (In Bielsa we tr…
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Cancelo Dier
    Bruno Son De Bruyne
    Kane
    Possibly
    Kilman Stephens

    No transfers left.
    Free hit?

    1. JJeyy
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      of course

  3. Tsparkes10
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    How tf do 54% still own DCL lol

    1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      You'd swear he hasn't scored 11 goals

  4. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    To ADY87: my GW19 plan is uncertain tbh. I currently sit with 1.7 ITB and:

    Martinez Areola
    Robbo Coufal Dallas Pieters Mitchell
    Salah KDB Bruno Son Soucek
    Bamford Watkins Davis

    I had been planning BB, losing Robbo (rather him than Son) to fund Davis/Mitchell upgrades... but I’m not sure if I want to BB any more with postponements, and it would be a -8

  5. b91jh
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    Cenk Tosun ftw!

  6. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    What is the level of extra points that you think justifies playing FH? 20?

    1. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      20-25 as long as it doesnt compromise points next week (ie you want the City players in both 18 and 19)

  7. JJeyy
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    How important is a bench on FH? Ideal team only has Mitchell as cover...

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      I’ll have Mitchell, Kilman and either Brewster or Smithrowe... good enough for me

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      More important than normal given COVID
      Would have at least 1 starting sub

    3. PP6
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      That would be enough for me.. how are you meant to build a half decent squad with these Spurs players and a bench.

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      More important these days that usual. Games could get postponed at the last minute.

  8. Dark Side Of The Loon!
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    What's the news on Vardy? Still flagged.

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Just resting during the FA Cup game in all likelihood.

      The fact is that he's been managing a hip niggle all season long.

      1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Hope he plays the double. Planning my transfers around him.

        1. Warby84
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          I’m edging more towards Ings now..

          1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Vardy has excellent fixtures though

  9. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 10 days ago

    GW19 Question, since bored of FH18 ones: 😀

    I have:
    - McCarthy / Foster (Awaiting COVID update)
    - Taylor ("touch & go" for now.)
    - Alioski (Cooper back, at risk potentially.)
    - DCL (was thinking about selling in GW19 anyway).

    I had kind of prepped for BB19, but with these uncertainties - reckon I should shelve the BB plans for now?

    More positive news could come out and I could still play it, but it seems a tad risky given all of those could reasonably miss one/two matches in 19.

  10. BerkshireHafawayline
      3 months, 10 days ago

      Stick with KDB (C)? I have Son and Kane for the Fulham match.

    • BurnMyBread
        3 months, 10 days ago

        How come there are so few people going for a Wilcard rather than a FH? Surely these fixture changes have affected some DGW plans?

        1. HuttonDressedasLahm
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Have plenty of DGW ers for next week already

      • wasp3000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        As someone with a poor TV and playing the FH, this fixture reshuffle has really screwed me.

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          You can still make a strong FH team with a million or so less purchase power.

          Can't understand how you're not able to fit in a good number of good players with the decent budget picks available.

          1. HuttonDressedasLahm
            • 11 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Agreed
            Loads of decent non-expensive options

          2. wasp3000
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            I mean i can still field a good team obviously but i seen some teams with say Laca over Wilson and Tierney over Holding as examples and still having Kane Son Bruno KDB Rash.

            If there was no Spurs fixture or Villa home to Spurs still went ahead, I would have went without Kane no problem. Now i think you need both Son and Kane defo.

      • Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 10 days ago

        Richarlison or Wilson on FH?

        Wilson obviously enables stronger first sub than Stephens

        1. HuttonDressedasLahm
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Wilson may not be fit though

          1. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            According to whom?

            Somebody said the same of Richa a few pages back

            1. HuttonDressedasLahm
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Some guy called Steve Bruce

              1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                ie UK's pie eating champ for the last 20 years running

        2. HuttonDressedasLahm
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          But also Richarlison not 100% either 🙄

      • highsguy
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Thoughts on this FH? Thanks!

          Lloris
          Cancelo Dias AWB
          KDB Bruno Son Saka Neto
          Laca Kane
          (Forster, Holding, Mitchell, Brewster)

          1. HuttonDressedasLahm
            • 11 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Standard
            I’d prefer double City attack though an an Arsenal defender

        • The Mighty Whites
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Current defence is Cancelo, Dias and Tierney - would you rather DDG or Lloris in net?

          1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Lloris

          2. HuttonDressedasLahm
            • 11 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Lloris
            More chance of Burnley scoring at home

          3. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 10 days ago

            Lloris.

            A weakened Fulham side vs a rested Mourinho team (and defence) feels a much better bet than Arsenal.

            Arsenal have been a bit fortunate not to concede, are pretty inconsistent and Palace can actually score goals if they feel like it.

            1. Hazz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Sorry, read DDG as Leno for some reason. Point still stand United defense is inconsistent too and I prefer Lloris vs. Fulham.

        • dsefton
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          How's this for WC:

          Leno (Martinez)
          AWB Cancelo Dias Lowton (Coufal)
          KdB Bruno Son Rashford (Soucek)
          Laca Wilson (Bamford)

          - Gives 11 starters for GW18
          then do Wilson --> Antonio for DGW19
          - Gives 12 DGW's + Leno, Laca & Son

        • b91jh
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 10 days ago

          Cancelo, KDB plus...?

          A) Foden
          B) Dias
          C) Gundogan

          On FH.

          1. 2OLEgend
              3 months, 10 days ago

              B

            • OptimusBlack
              • 7 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              B

          2. BurnMyBread
              3 months, 10 days ago

              What's the likelihood of
              A) Grealish/Watkins/Martinez playing in GW19
              B) Leeds vs Southampton remaining in GW19

              1. Mr. O'Connell
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                A) 0-100%
                B) 0-100%

            • HuttonDressedasLahm
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              0-1 Fulham incoming

            • Shark Team
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              DCL out
              Richarlison doubt
              Can see kneejerkers going for Saiss outscoring us FHers

              1. Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                FHs can get Saiss too you know...

              2. HuttonDressedasLahm
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Just bring in Saiss then?

            • OptimusBlack
              • 7 Years
              3 months, 10 days ago

              Pick the best for GW 18
              A- AWB
              B- Dier

              1. 2OLEgend
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Dier

              2. fish&chips
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 10 days ago

                Son or Rash for GW18 & 19?

                1. 2OLEgend
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    Son imo

                2. The Tinkerman
                  • 5 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Do people want Son for this game? To me he is much better suited to playing big teams, and those who want to push forward. I’d rather have Kane in a game like this.

                  1. Hazz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 3 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    I'll have Son any game.

                    1. The Tinkerman
                      • 5 Years
                      3 months, 10 days ago

                      75% of his goals this season have been against current top 6/traditional big 6

                  2. HuttonDressedasLahm
                    • 11 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    Ownership is a worry though

                    1. The Tinkerman
                      • 5 Years
                      3 months, 10 days ago

                      Agreed, but if we are looking for differentials here, not owning him could be one this week. Kane is more of a flat track bully than Son looking at their recent records.

                3. Jabba12
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Which would be better on FH
                  a) Holding, Stones, Rashford
                  b) Tierney, Cancelo, Zaha

                4. Shark Team
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Rashford or Lacazette scores more pts this gw?

                  1. GS456
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    Laca for me.

                    Burnley can be tight at home

                5. GS456
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Kane (C) now?

                  1. The Tinkerman
                    • 5 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    Probably, for me

                    1. GS456
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      3 months, 10 days ago

                      Same.

                6. konrad.sygula95
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Hi guys, how do you like my FH team?

                  Darlow
                  Stones/Dier/Holding
                  Rashford/ Son/Fernandes/KDB/Smith Rowe
                  Kane/DCL

                7. OptimusBlack
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Pick one for GW 18 with Kane & Son
                  A- Lloris
                  B- Dier

                  1. GS456
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    3 months, 10 days ago

                    B

                8. b91jh
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  Does Schar likely to start?

                9. EWH2020
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 10 days ago

                  RMFHT

                  Ederson
                  Holding, Stones, Dier
                  KDB, Rashford, Bruno, Son, ESR
                  Laca, Kane

                  1. 2OLEgend
                      3 months, 10 days ago

                      Ederson -> Lloris
                      Dier -> Cancelo