Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Which FPL forward should we choose to replace Harry Kane?

It’s been a while since I did the Burning Question format so I thought it would be a good time to revisit it. I asked the community to send me some questions and I’ll be answering a few here. Let’s get stuck right in.

Q1) What is the ideal front three if no budget constraints? @pras_fpl

Hi Pras, thank you so much for the question. Hope you are doing well. The injury to Harry Kane (£11.3m) and the lack of form of Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) has opened up the striker positions. Just a small note on Patrick Bamford, in the last four matches, he sits outside the top 30 players in the league for expected goals (xG). It’s easy to forget that he is still fairly cheap and offers value but he has a mixed bag of fixtures in the next five Gameweeks and doesn’t make my list for the ideal front three. So who does make my list?

Calvert-Lewin and Bamford the Fantasy focus as Everton host Leeds

First up, it’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m). Yes he has had four blanks in a row but it is worth mentioning that his merry men are back and as noted by Tom Freeman in his excellent article, Everton are a different beast when all their main players are playing together. Here is what Tom cited:

“Everton are a different proposition when they can get Lucas Digne (£6.0m), James Rodríguez (£7.7m), Richarlison (£7.8m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin all on the pitch at the same time. In fact, in the six league games they’ve started together this season, the Toffees have scored a massive 17 goals.”

Tom Freeman

That is an average of 2.83 goals per game. In the next four Gameweeks, Everton face Newcastle (home), Leeds (away), Manchester United (away) and Fulham (home). Three of those teams are in the bottom six of the league for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last six matches. Fixtures and the calibre of opposition when they have all their main attackers fit are the reasons why DCL is top of my list of strikers at the moment.

The next two forwards who make up the ideal strikeforce for me are Michail Antonio (£6.4m) and Ollie Watkins (£6.2m). Antonio just makes West Ham better as an attacking outfit and owners were extremely unlucky to come away with just an assist against Crystal Palace.

He should have had a lot more from the game but he looks very sharp on the eye-test, has good underlying numbers, and has a fairly decent fixture run as well. Also worth noting that in the last four matches, West Ham are in the top five in the league for Big Chance Threat (BCT) and for attempts in the box which further justifies the presence of Antonio making the Hammers a much better attacking unit.

The same can be said about Aston Villa who also find themselves in the top five in the league for big chances and shots in the box in the last four matches. They also look like an excellent outfit in attack and are capable of scoring goals against any opposition. Watkins has great underlying numbers as well. He is second among all strikers for BCT in the last four matches and sits third in the league for shots in the box in the same period.

Q2) If someone wanted to take a punt on Chelsea now, with good fixtures and a possible manager bounce, which two or three Chelsea assets would you suggest? (@PierreM80702057)

Hi Pierre. My fellow Pro-Pundit and co-host Zophar always says it is better to be late to the party rather than arriving early and realising it is a dud. As you already know, I’ve been guilty of this crime quite a few times this season and it’s one of the big reasons I’m having a poor campaign.

When it comes to Tuchel’s Chelsea, simply put we just don’t know anything about them right now. I would suggest keenly monitoring them for the next two-to-three games before jumping in because the manager is just getting to know his players right now. Let me quote from this excellent piece on Tuchel on FFScout:

“Whatever system and style Tuchel chooses to deploy at Chelsea, he always tailors it to the players he has at his disposal.”

“My role is that of a service provider, I’m here to help and support the players.”

Thomas Tuchel

It’s very early to tell who is going to benefit from having Tuchel as a manager but I’ll just say that the first game against Wolves looked really encouraging for Kai Havertz (£8.2m) who played a lot closer to goal than under Frank Lampard. That said it is very early to draw any conclusions and I’d urge FPL managers to keenly observe for some time before jumping in.

Q3) Is Man City double defence a risk now with Laporte back and raring to go? (@fpl_saffer)

Hi Kevin, thank you so much for the question and first up huge congratulations for the season you’re having. I know you’re currently in the top 50 Overall Ranking at the moment so you definitely don’t need to be taking any advice from me.

→ How many FPL points did Aymeric Laporte register across Manchester City's three Double Gameweeks?

With regards to the Manchester City centre-backs, I see no reason for Pep to change the partnership he has at his disposal right now which is why both remain good picks. I think he’ll persist with the same two in defence and you’ll probably only see a little bit of rotation due to fixture congestion and that’s about it. I wouldn’t worry about them until Pep actually makes some changes.

Q4) Who are the second best premium defensive assets (with some attacking output) behind the City boys? Liverpool, Leicester, United, Chelsea, Spurs? Or just go budget? (@FPLAlternative)

If you’re looking for a defender to pick outside of the Manchester City names, the one I’d like to recommend is Lucas Digne.

Returning Digne can help Everton's attacking assets return to form in Gameweek 20

Like I mentioned earlier in the article, Everton have a great bunch of fixtures coming up. It is worth noting he was played as a left-winger in the previous game which makes him a very enticing option and even if he isn’t out-of-position (OOP), his numbers this season have been really good.

He’s top of the league for assists per 90 (0.49 assists per 90mins) and especially with James Rodriguez back in the team and in form, I think it increases his points potential a lot. Ben Godfrey’s (£5.0m) form also means that he could potentially still be OOP for a while. Only two teams have conceded fewer goals and big chances than Everton in the last six matches so that is very promising as well.

That’s it from me for this week and I hope you enjoyed this article. Our latest episode of The FPL Wire has some more detailed information as well which you can view below in case you fancy it.

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3,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jamesy0909
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 18 days ago

    DCL in for A) Bamford or B) Wilson? TIA

    1. Ha.
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      A

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      A

    3. DD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      I would ditch Wilson. Newcastle have been so poor that I am amazed Bruce is still in the job.

    4. Kabaranko
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 18 days ago

      B, and it is not even remotly close, they are not same level value, wilson is not even close

  2. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 18 days ago

    What to donwoth this lot?

    A) Rashford to Son
    B) Saka to Son
    C) Brewster to DCL (Bench Saka)
    D) Get both Son and DCL

    Gundo, Salah, Bruno, Rashford Saks
    Watkins, Antonio, Brewster

    1 FT, 8.7 in the bank

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      *with this lot

    2. Surfreak
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Get DCL, not sure Son is worth the hit unless it's for long term

    3. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      B

    4. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      B or C
      I think Rashford could do well against Arsenal.

      Who would you bench if you did D?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Saka

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Rashford 1 assist the last 5 games though

  3. DAZZ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 18 days ago

    Captain from this lot?

    DCL, Salah, Bruno, Cancelo, Grealish?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Dcl

    2. Bleh
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      DCL

    3. Surfreak
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Probably DCL but always tricky when you have Salah and Bruno to C anyone else

    4. Ruth_NZ
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Salah

    5. Salan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Salah, marginally edge over DCL/Bruno/Cancelo.

  4. Bleh
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 18 days ago

    12.8 ITB currently and I hate not being able to use it. Which of these for a -4?

    A. Holding > Digne
    B. Stephens > Son
    C. Stephens > Barnes

    Martinez (Steer)
    Dias, Stones, Cresswell, Mitchell (Holding)
    Salah, Bruno, Gundogan, Soucek (Stephens)
    DCL, Bamford (Brewster)

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      B

    2. Ooh Ah Cantona
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Versus Leeds is a good starting point to bring in Barnes.

    3. unitednations
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Morning dzzz, ideally i want to bring in Digne, Son, Grealish, DCL but only willing to take 1 hit....so, which 2 do you expect to return the most till i WCgw25.

      A: Digne...means i don't have to start dallas (lei, EVE) and stone (liv)
      B: Son
      C: Grealish
      D: DCL

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        BD

    4. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Bench Bruno for Watkins?

      1. The 12th Man
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Has to be Watkins.

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        No

    5. Buck The Trent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      New article

    6. amit1964
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      hii
      i have salah,grealish.gundo........who should i pick now?

      a)mane
      b) son
      c) bruno
      ****please explain
      thank you

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        B

        1. amit1964
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 18 days ago

          even with out kane?

    7. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Calvert Lewin is class but hasn't scored in his last 6 PL games. Is the lack of form strikers making him look a better prospect than he is?

      1. Salan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        My approach may be having DCL and Salah, but captain an on-form player Gundo.

    8. WE GO FOR IT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      A. Alioski/Coufal + Soucek + DCL
      B. Digne + Soucek + Bamford
      C. Targett + Soucek + DCL -4
      D. Alioski/Coufal + Barnes + Bamford

    9. Gabbiadini
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Soucek to Salah for a -4, yes or no?

      1. Disturbed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Yes

        1. Gabbiadini
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 18 days ago

          yes, interesting.
          I am still undecided, please help further persuade me?

    10. Sondre van Bank
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      On WC. How's she lookin?

      Martinez 4.0
      Targett Digne Cancelo Dias Mitchell
      Son Salah Barnes Gundogan Bruno
      DCL Watkins Brewster

      3.5 itb

      1. MMN
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        I've gone Stones over Dias as I will want to bench 1 city defender for quite a few after the next two games. Also went chilwell over digne. Gone Antonio over Brewster incase of no shows/to rotate with Barnes/Gundo for those harder fixtures but I'm tempted to downgrade to fodder too ...

        Would love to hear your thoughts too on all the above decisions.

        1. Sondre van Bank
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 18 days ago

          I'm basing the Dias over Stones on nothing but intuition and Laporte being back and Pep's love for Dias.
          Chilwell over digne is a coin toss imo, and Brewster over Antonio is my Kane plan/strongely dislike bench headaches

          1. MMN
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 18 days ago

            Do you plan to play Digne every game?

            1. Sondre van Bank
              • 7 Years
              3 months, 18 days ago

              Initial plan is the first two weeks, then swap him for Chilwell. Could easily change tho, he's basically playing as a winger, so the attacking potential is there

    11. Brunsvigeren
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Any thoughts here, ranked 100k, 2.9 itb, thinking of Raphina to JamesRod.

      Mcharthy
      Justin - Robertson - Cancelo
      Gundogan - Bruno - Mané - Maddison - Raphina
      DCL - Antonio

      Fabianski - Maguire - Bamford - Coufal

      1. Brunsvigeren
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        I have one FT btw 🙂

      2. Gabbiadini
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        trade in a 3rd city player or one of the 6.0 strikers up to an Ings/Laca possibly?

        1. Brunsvigeren
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 18 days ago

          I kinde like the little punt on JamesR though, hmm

    12. afsr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Maguire to Digne for -8?

    13. KANTEnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Start :
      1) Adams (Avl home)
      2) Bamford (Lei away)

      Start one of :
      A) Lowton (CHE away)
      B) Dallas (Lei away)
      C) Coufal (Liv home)

    14. Forcella Boys
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Jesus (c) madness or worth a punt?

      1. hullcityfan
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 18 days ago

        Wouldn’t trust him to score even if he played 90 minutes to be honest

        1. Forcella Boys
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 18 days ago

          1. Forcella Boys
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            3 months, 18 days ago

            Lol, fair point, putting him in was a gamble, captain would be a step too far

    15. Flycroft
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Which GK would you choose from now until WC gw 25?

      A) Mendy
      B) Guaita
      C) Pickford
      D) Someone else?!

    16. Robman
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Can lightning strike twice - like a lot of people I benched Soucek last week and missed out on his 15 points!

      This week, please help me bench one of Bamford (A Leicester) or Soucek (H Liverpool).

    17. Mr Chelski
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 18 days ago

      Play James or Coufal?