Spot the Differential

Fit-again Pereira can return to 2019/20 form in Castagne’s absence

Gameweek 23 is almost upon us after another quick turnaround, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leicester City, Burnley and Newcastle United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ricardo Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: wol | LIV | avl | ARS | bha

Ricardo Pereira (£5.9m) is showing signs that he is almost back to full-fitness, as he completed his first 90 minutes of the season against Fulham on Wednesday night.

Benefitting from Timothy Castagne’s (£5.7m) injury, which is set to keep him out for a ‘short period of time’, the 27-year-old started at Craven Cottage and even had a goal ruled out in the second half for offside.

The numbers caught the eye, too.

Pereira finished the match with 23 final-third touches. Amongst team-mates, only James Maddison (£7.3m) had more, and for context, his colleague on the opposite flank, James Justin (£5.1m), had nine. He also racked up more penalty area-touches, take-ons and crosses than the English full-back during the match, which is encouraging. 

The return of several injured players, including Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.3m) and of course Pereira, has given the Foxes a boost ahead of a testing run of fixtures, which sees them take on Wolverhampton Wanderers, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal before the end of the month. However, it’s worth pointing out that two of the next three are on the road, where Leicester have won 26 points so far, their second highest total in a Premier League campaign after their 2015-16 title win.

Now almost up to speed, Pereira is surely a must-start for Brendan Rodgers side, and with his ability to bomb forward like a winger, could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

“He’s one of the top full-backs in the Premier League. We lost him in a game in which he was outstanding. We’ve gained in two ways because it allowed James Justin to come in and grow. Now, to have Ricky back with all of his qualities. He’s not there yet but he’s getting up to speed. We’re really strong in that area of the field.” – Brendan Rodgers

Ben Mee

  • FPL ownership: 1.9%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: BHA | cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS

English centre-back Ben Mee (£4.9m) has become one of the Premier League’s most consistent defenders in recent seasons, and could be a solid differential given Burnley’s schedule which now includes a Double Gameweek.

The Clarets started the season slowly going seven games without a win, but saw their performances improve once Mee returned to the starting XI following a thigh injury. Since then, the solidity Sean Dyche’s side are renowned for has returned, and resulted in seven clean sheets in their last 17 attempts in all competitions.

Despite just two of those shut-outs arriving this year, it’s worth pointing out that their recent schedule has been tough, with each of their last six league opponents all in the top 10. However, they now have a run of winnable matches against teams in the bottom half, which includes an appealing Double Gameweek 24 against Crystal Palace and Fulham. 

Encouragingly, they have already kept clean sheets against their next four opponents earlier in the season, too.

Captain Mee also carries a bit of goal threat from set-pieces, which has already seen him score against Sheffield United and Aston Villa this term. That could be important too, given that Brighton and Palace often look vulnerable defending crosses into the box, and while clean sheets remain the most likely source of points, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he were again to take advantage from a dead-ball situation in the coming weeks.

Ryan Fraser

Sterling's away form and low ownership can do real FPL damage
  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: SOU | che | mun | WOL | wba

Despite a stop-start season at Newcastle United, largely due to injury, Ryan Fraser (£5.6m) has impressed in recent matches.

That upturn in form has coincided with Steve Bruce’s decision to switch to a 4-4-2 diamond formation, which has seen the Magpies take more shots than any other side since Gameweek 20.

Operating in a more advanced role alongside Callum Wilson (£6.8m), the more ambitious approach is getting the best out of Fraser, who ranks joint-top for chances created among all Premier League players over the last three matches. He’s also created three big chances, a total only Bruno Fernandes (£11.4m) can match, and whipped in a massive 36 crosses.

The 26-year-old’s appeal is further boosted by this weekend’s opponents Southampton, who following their heavy midweek defeat at Old Trafford have now conceded 15 goals in their last four league matches. It’s also worth noting that they’ve given up 21 chances from their right flank during that time, only Burnley have allowed more, which is relevant with Fraser often drifting into those areas, where he can cut inside onto his stronger right foot.

Fraser has had a testing start to his time in the North East, but can provide a genuine threat for Newcastle when fully fit, and could be a nice pick-up for those on the lookout for a real midfield differential in Gameweek 23.

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858 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    This is my current defence...
    Martinez (Johnstone)
    Cancelo, Coufal, Chiwell, Dallas, Dias

    1) Play Chilwell and have good back up to come in (Coufal/Dallas). Then get Mee or Shaw next gw. Use transfer to do Johnstone to Pope for DGW.
    2) Sell Chilwell. Bit of a bench headache, but probably get Mee/Rudiger/Shaw now. Play Martinez, skip Pope.

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I'm in the exact same situation as you. Same keepers and same defenders.
      I'm leaning towards getting Pope this week and getting a dgw defender for Chilwell next week once me know about some more doubles. What do you think?

      1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        That's entirely my thinking - the majority have said dump his ass.

        1. Neves say Neves
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          Will you risk starting Chilwell over Dallas?
          Also thought I should add that I have 2FT but I think rolling one to next week will be very useful

          1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Again, we are the same. Never seen in the same room!

            I'll start Chilwell Cancelo and one from Dallas/Coufal in likelihood.

            1. Neves say Neves
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Ha! What are the chances!
              I'm terrified of Alonso starting and Chilwell coming on for a 1 point cameo so I think I will start both Dallas and Coufal. Good luck sir!

  2. JJeyy
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    This gameweek will come down to Son vs non-Son owners. Surely he has to return vs west brom?

    1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I bloody hope so. But I’m not sure I’m confident enough to captain any more - may swap and play safe with Bruno

      1. JJeyy
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Its West Brom, they even let sheffield score two

        1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          But Spurs are gash. Blades in arguably better form

  3. MMN
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Anything better than Mitchell > Mee No WC, BB in 26.

    Will bench Gundo or Cancelo but will likely come in for Chilwell anyway.

    Martinez
    Justin, Cancelo, Chilwell
    Gundo, Salah, Bruno, Grealish, Barnes
    Watkins, Antonio
    (Areola, DCL, Mitchell, Stones)

    1 FT 1.1m ITB. Thoughts appreciated!

    1. JJeyy
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Salah to Son

      1. MMN
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        So painful to consider that after Son > Salah (C) last week.

        With Spurs current form and no Kane, not too excited by Son this week. Although really need to decide whether to go Son or Salah in DGW 26 as I can't have both given I want to keep my other 4 mids ...

        1. JJeyy
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          Jose hinted kane could be back, and expect nothing from salah v city.

    2. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Selling BC next week? Think he might start this week based on nothing!

      1. MMN
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Yes, plan to sell him before BB in 26. Unless something changes.

        Might start as Chelsea only have Friday/Saturday rest with a late Thursday kick-off.

  4. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Best transfer option

    A McCarthy to Pope
    B Robertson to Mee

    Thinking A and then Robertson to Digne next week

  5. Lev Yashin
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Weird one this week.
    Starting XI and bench order OK?

    Martinez
    Cancelo, Coufal, Dallas
    Salah, Bruno, Son, Grealish, Gundo
    Antonio, Bamford

    Dias, Robbo, Adams

    Cheers.

  6. sirmorbach
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Quick help here, please?

    Martínez / McCarthy
    Dias / Stones / Cresswell / Digne /  Dallas
    Salah / Bruno / Grealish / Gündogan / Soucek
    DCL / Antonio / Watkins

    Watkins to Bamford or hold?

    Also, bench DCL or Watkins?

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Hold.
      DCL

      1. sirmorbach
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Cheers, mate!

  7. Steve McCroskey
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Play Adams (new) or DCL (mun)?

    1. Lazaretti
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Adams

  8. Tmel
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Martinez
    Dias Coufal Chilwell
    Grealish Salah Son Bruno Gundo
    Bamford Antonio
    (Steer DCL Stones Mitchell)

    0.9ITB & 2FT

    a) Mitchell > Lowton
    b) Mitchell > Rudiger
    c) Chilwell > Shaw
    d) Mitchell & Chilwell > Mee & Shaw

    1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I like the Shaw pick. Likely prioritising Pope and getting Shaw or Mee next week myself.

  9. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Gonna have a tough benching decision in DGW24...
    (Assuming I get Mee in for Coufal) have to bench 2 from:

    A) Stones (TOT,eve) - starting Cancelo
    B) Digne (FUL, MCI)
    C) Soucek (SHU)
    D) Antonio (SHU)
    E) Watkins (bha)
    F) Bamford (ars)

    Currently thinking Watkins and one other? Fixtures scream Bamford bench but then he did great away to Leicester....

    1. Phlajo
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I'd bench C, and E or F depending on how they perform this GW

      1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Fair, cheers. Soucek has killed me from the bench twice in 3GW though... hmm.

        Also as below, if I decide to do Watkins to DCL that further complicates things lol

    2. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Made further complicated though, if I go Watkins to DCL next week...

  10. Avery
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Bookies odds #GW23 anytime scorer probability % https://twitter.com/FPL_Salah/status/1357675341100306432?s=20

    Son: 49%
    Bamford: 48%
    Vinicius: 47%
    Abraham: 44%
    Bruno: 43%
    Giroud: 43%
    Cavani: 42%
    Ings: 42%
    Vardy: 41%
    Laca: 39%
    Martial: 38%
    Rashford: 38%
    Wilson: 38%
    Antonio: 37%
    Bale: 37%
    Salah: 37%
    Werner: 35%
    Auba: 34%
    Maupay: 34%
    Watkins: 34%
    Jesus:32%

    ----
    #GW23 clean sheet probability % https://twitter.com/FPL_Salah/status/1357586002269753345?s=20

    CHE: 47%
    TOT: 45%
    MUN: 40%
    BHA: 39%
    LEI: 37%
    WHU: 34%
    LEE: 31%
    SOU: 31%
    BUR: 29%
    MCI: 29%
    NEW: 27%
    WOL: 27%
    ARS: 24%
    AVL: 24%
    FUL: 24%
    LIV: 20%
    CPL: 18%
    SHU: 16%
    EVE: 15%
    WBA: 15%

    1. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      thanks +1

    2. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Thanks, hulk this !

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Cheers!

      Makes Son cap seem a no brainer but the form is just not there!!

      1. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 29 days ago

        I just moved Captain from Bruno to Son. There's these odds but also the fact that he has to come good at some point after a not so great run, for me I believe things will balance back in his favour.

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          I’m still so torn. Also have Antonio in the mix.

          Trouble is he will be v highly owned and capped generally so even if he does somehow haul I’m not sure the upside will be huge.

    4. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Switches captain back to Son...

  11. gomez123
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Got 2 free transfers, have 3 Man city players Ederson/Cancelo/Gund
    Just do Ederson to Pope this week and save free transfer
    or use both and also do Salah to Sterling??

  12. FantasyFooty01
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Into week 2 of last man standing, who should I pick? comment below. 50 left.
    Already picked:
    Chelsea
    Man City

  13. RoysCallerAnne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Polite request to update the members ticker with DGW fixtures please.

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      lol

      1. RoysCallerAnne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        I've sacrificed 5 take away coffees this year to pay for my membership. I demand value for money!

        1. Studs Up
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 29 days ago

          True this.....even "free" sites have been updated

  14. Sean
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Posting this here so I remember my train of thought later, feel free to comment:

    Current Team (2FT 4.6 ITB)

    Martinez Pope
    Robbo Chilwell Cancelo Stones Coufal
    Salah Bruno Gundo Soucek Raph
    DCL Bamford Antonio

    GW 23: Soucek to Son, Play Chilwell in case he starts, bench Stones Robbo DCL
    GW 24: Chilwell to Lowton for DGW, bench Robbo/Bamford Son Raphinia
    GW 25: Coufal to 3.8m def, he's no longer any use to me and enables move for GW 26, bench Stones/Lowton DCL and 3.8 def
    DGW26: Pope to Steer and DCL to Kane ready to go for the doubles.

    Team in DGW26 (0.2 ITB)

    Martinez
    Robbo Cancelo Stones (Lowton) (3.8 Def)
    Salah Bruno Son Gundo Raph
    Kane (C) Bamford (Antonio)

  15. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    People using BB in DGW26, when are you planning to use your TC?

    1. Benteke Fried Chicken
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      No plan. You just go with the flow. Could literally be just a random eye catching double gameweek in the future.

  16. Christina.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    We dont even have DGW 26 fixtures.
    🙄

  17. Lazaretti
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Bit lost what to do? 1FT 1.6 it

    Do not want to keep Robertson also have Zaha.

    Martinez
    Maguire - Dallas - Coufal
    Salah - Bruno - Mount - Gundo - Zaha
    Wilson - Bamford
    Peacock - Cancelo - DCL - Robbo

    1. Lazaretti
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Considering JWP as Zaha replacement. Team ok atm not necessarily need to take a hit

  18. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    What do you reckon guys?
    A) johnstone to areola
    B) robbo to shaw
    C) robbo to mee
    D) robbo to rudiger

  19. G Banger
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    8.2 ITB and 2FT... priority here?

    Martinez
    Coufal / Dallas / Cancelo
    Salah / Fernandes / Gundogan / Grealish / Soucek
    Bamford / DCL

    Button / Stones/ Holding / Brewster

    a) Button => Pope
    b) Brewster => Antonio (bench DCL)

  20. tissae
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Do you guys play 2 City defenders this GW, or bench one? If so, who are you starting instead?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Dias Cresswell

    Bench: Bednarek Mitchell

    1. The Mighty Whites
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I'm starting Cancelo and benching Dias

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Benching both. Why not?

  21. Mr. O'Connell
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Who else is still holding onto Kane? Def helps with the benching decisions (less so team value). Man City fixture the earliest possible return date (non-FA cup games)?

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I think youll see him for West Brom

    2. Wild Rover
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I sold, but I've stuck with Vardy. Hoping for my reward this week.

  22. Steager
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Have a transfer to burn:

    A) Sterling to Son and captain, (otherwise Bruno captain)
    B) Wilson to Antonio
    C) Mitchell to Lowton/Mee/Tarko (Keep on bench for DGW)
    D)ESR To someone have 4.3 in bank to play with.

  23. Threat Level Midnight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    GTG? Only thing I may change is get Gundo in for Saka or DCL. Thoughts?

    Guaita
    Dias/Cancelo/Cresswell/Coufal
    Mane/Bruno/Rash/Saka
    Antonio (C)/DCL

    Forster/Gundo/Taa/Brewster

  24. Malkmus
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Play Mee ahead of Coufal ?

    Ta!

  25. FPL ElasticO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Which of these transfer worth doing for free?

    A. Johnstone & Robbo >> Pope & Mee
    B. Johnstone & Brewster >> Pope & Bamford (bench DCL)
    C. Brewster & Robbo >> Bamford & Mee

  26. RoysCallerAnne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    I see good old Nabs Kebabs now has a YT FPL channel. He has 3 x top 70k and 2 x top 120k don't you know.
    Don't all rush at once.

    1. Wild Rover
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Probably had a season where he never took it seriously too

      1. RoysCallerAnne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        😆 ah that old chestnut!

      2. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        1. _Ninja_
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          So true WR. hear this all the time.

  27. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Haven't a clue who to give the armband. I know I’m in a decent position at 89k OR but I’m still chasing my main ML.

    Son has the clear fixture winner and bookies odds but awful awful form and team around him atm.

    Bruno has blistering form and a pretty decent fixture. Looks safest choice.

    Antonio has good form but hasn’t scored in 3 matches and a v good fixture. Would be the most differential captain of the 3

    What would you do?!

    Currently have it on Antonio but with Lingard firing maybe his potential is diluted.

    1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Exact same situation bro. Tempted to just play it safe, but have yet to take it off Son. Bookies odds are interesting

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        The bookies odds surprised me. I mean.... have they seen him play?!

  28. Oooo Matron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    G2G? I'm thinking Pope & Mee in next GW.

    Martinez
    Cancelo Dallas Dawson
    Grealish Fernandes (C) Sterling Salah Son
    Antonio Watkins

    Subs: Dias, Mitchell, Brewster

  29. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Who does better this week:
    Coufal(ful)
    Mee(BHA)

    Doing the Coufal to Mee move for DGW24 either this or next week (before you say Coufal plays SHU, I wouldn’t be playing him then anyway with my other defenders).

    1. kime67
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      coufal for sure

      1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Why?

  30. kime67
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    i have no idea who to play.