Spot the Differential

Fit-again Pereira can return to 2019/20 form in Castagne’s absence

Gameweek 23 is almost upon us after another quick turnaround, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leicester City, Burnley and Newcastle United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ricardo Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: wol | LIV | avl | ARS | bha

Ricardo Pereira (£5.9m) is showing signs that he is almost back to full-fitness, as he completed his first 90 minutes of the season against Fulham on Wednesday night.

Benefitting from Timothy Castagne’s (£5.7m) injury, which is set to keep him out for a ‘short period of time’, the 27-year-old started at Craven Cottage and even had a goal ruled out in the second half for offside.

The numbers caught the eye, too.

Pereira finished the match with 23 final-third touches. Amongst team-mates, only James Maddison (£7.3m) had more, and for context, his colleague on the opposite flank, James Justin (£5.1m), had nine. He also racked up more penalty area-touches, take-ons and crosses than the English full-back during the match, which is encouraging. 

The return of several injured players, including Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.3m) and of course Pereira, has given the Foxes a boost ahead of a testing run of fixtures, which sees them take on Wolverhampton Wanderers, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal before the end of the month. However, it’s worth pointing out that two of the next three are on the road, where Leicester have won 26 points so far, their second highest total in a Premier League campaign after their 2015-16 title win.

Now almost up to speed, Pereira is surely a must-start for Brendan Rodgers side, and with his ability to bomb forward like a winger, could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

“He’s one of the top full-backs in the Premier League. We lost him in a game in which he was outstanding. We’ve gained in two ways because it allowed James Justin to come in and grow. Now, to have Ricky back with all of his qualities. He’s not there yet but he’s getting up to speed. We’re really strong in that area of the field.” – Brendan Rodgers

Ben Mee

  • FPL ownership: 1.9%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: BHA | cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS

English centre-back Ben Mee (£4.9m) has become one of the Premier League’s most consistent defenders in recent seasons, and could be a solid differential given Burnley’s schedule which now includes a Double Gameweek.

The Clarets started the season slowly going seven games without a win, but saw their performances improve once Mee returned to the starting XI following a thigh injury. Since then, the solidity Sean Dyche’s side are renowned for has returned, and resulted in seven clean sheets in their last 17 attempts in all competitions.

Despite just two of those shut-outs arriving this year, it’s worth pointing out that their recent schedule has been tough, with each of their last six league opponents all in the top 10. However, they now have a run of winnable matches against teams in the bottom half, which includes an appealing Double Gameweek 24 against Crystal Palace and Fulham. 

Encouragingly, they have already kept clean sheets against their next four opponents earlier in the season, too.

Captain Mee also carries a bit of goal threat from set-pieces, which has already seen him score against Sheffield United and Aston Villa this term. That could be important too, given that Brighton and Palace often look vulnerable defending crosses into the box, and while clean sheets remain the most likely source of points, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he were again to take advantage from a dead-ball situation in the coming weeks.

Ryan Fraser

Sterling's away form and low ownership can do real FPL damage
  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW23-27 fixtures: SOU | che | mun | WOL | wba

Despite a stop-start season at Newcastle United, largely due to injury, Ryan Fraser (£5.6m) has impressed in recent matches.

That upturn in form has coincided with Steve Bruce’s decision to switch to a 4-4-2 diamond formation, which has seen the Magpies take more shots than any other side since Gameweek 20.

Operating in a more advanced role alongside Callum Wilson (£6.8m), the more ambitious approach is getting the best out of Fraser, who ranks joint-top for chances created among all Premier League players over the last three matches. He’s also created three big chances, a total only Bruno Fernandes (£11.4m) can match, and whipped in a massive 36 crosses.

The 26-year-old’s appeal is further boosted by this weekend’s opponents Southampton, who following their heavy midweek defeat at Old Trafford have now conceded 15 goals in their last four league matches. It’s also worth noting that they’ve given up 21 chances from their right flank during that time, only Burnley have allowed more, which is relevant with Fraser often drifting into those areas, where he can cut inside onto his stronger right foot.

Fraser has had a testing start to his time in the North East, but can provide a genuine threat for Newcastle when fully fit, and could be a nice pick-up for those on the lookout for a real midfield differential in Gameweek 23.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99. A FREE trial is now available during December.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

858 Comments Post a Comment
  1. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Best MF that could have atleast two doubles in next 5GWs? (Other than Salah, Bruno and not City)

    1. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Iwobi?

      1. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Haha

    2. HammersXI
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Potentially Grealish, but who knows really what happening in the next 5 weeks?

      JWP? But they are on a bad run of form.

      1. tankle
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        I think JWP is a good shout from GW25

        1. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          No form at the moment. Hope they pick up before 25.

      2. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Already have Grealish

    3. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Raphinia, Harrison,Sterling,Gundogan maybe

      1. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Leeds can have only one DGW ?

        1. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          oh yeh, my bad.

        2. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          Im considering them because ill be benching them in 26 if i get them.

  2. iL PiStOlErO
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    McCarthy Forster
    Cancelo Dallas Justin Coufal Lowton
    Sterling Salah Bruno Gundo Romeu
    Antonio Bamford DCL

    2ft, 3.5itb

    Forster to Pope and save other ft? Or something else?

    1. tankle
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Good move imo, I would have if not for price rise (below)

  3. tankle
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Annoyingly priced out of my second GK to Pope after last nights rise. Have 2 FTs and no fires to put out. Would you do Salah to Son (c)?

    WBA is afwul and Spurs looks likely to have good DGW26. Salahs fixtures and form not inspiring for that price.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      You didn't watch the game last night?

      1. HammersXI
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        doesnt seem like he has watched spurs for the last 3 games

    2. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Spurs looked terrible again. Salah can score against anyone and is top scorer. If Kane was back it would be different

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Not so sure bout Spurs without Kane, even if it is WBA. Think that it is a risky move tbh...

    4. tankle
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Haha. I actually watched it. Terrible, but so are WBA. I wouldnt consider it if not for Spurs potential GW26 fixtures, and I expect Kane to be back for those.

      1. tankle
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        But thanks all! May just end up burning a ft then

        1. Indpush
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          I'm doing it. If this isn't a perfect team to get it together against and let out some steam on there isn't one. That transfer also sets me up for getting Kane for the double.

  4. Catastrophe
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Best upgrade for this week?

    A) Mee (BRI) with Stones (liv) benched
    B) Pope (BRI) with Martinez (ARS) benched
    C) Antonio (ful) with DCL (mun) benched

    Cheers.

  5. Stupendous
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Vardy is back???

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Partyyyyyyyy timeeeeeee

  6. seanie3
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    who is looking to break the mold this week and bench antonio against fulham instead of Bruno against everton... now pickford is not playing utd might have less goals in this one than before if pickford was in goal..thoughts..

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 4 days ago

      You're going to bench either Antonio or bruno? I wouldn't bench either, 2 best captain choices?

    2. HammersXI
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Are you alright?

    3. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      you captain and not bench, right?

      If so I am

    4. hullcityfan
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Bench both obviously.

    5. Wild Rover
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Surely you mean Captain, not bench?

    6. seanie3
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Sorry I meant captain not bench

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Epic post fail. Still, 5 guys replied so you succeeded in some sense.

      2. Big Mac 24
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

  7. Gudjohnsen
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    A. Coufal, Saka to Lowton, Grealish
    B. Mitchell toTarkowski or Mee

    That way I have 2ft for gw24

  8. GW22 Review
    BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    The Review: GW 22

    Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look ahead to the doubles and the fixture rescheduling in detail:

    (Data taken from FFScout with consent)

    Before I begin, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, do follow up here!

    http://instagram.com/bigmanbakar

    Q: In my first section, I’d like to address the huge outcry over benched points in recent weeks. I quote my friend @zophar666 (on Twitter) here.

    I think we need some perspective here. We are still very much in the middle of a pandemic, so postponements and cancellations are very much still a possibility. Very recently we had Stones, Cancelo and Sterling benched, and most FPL managers had a significant majority of their auto-substitutes used. The schedule is like no other season, a bench is needed and we are fortunate we have players like Souček, Justin, Coufal, Raphinha and the likes who offer high potential at an affordable price.

    Benching Souček away to Aston Villa/Bamford away to Leicester was a reasonable call, given Villa’s/Leicester’s defensive record. Similarly, benching Calvert Lewin away to Man United is a reasonable call – if he hauls so be it, we need to embrace process-oriented thinking, not result-oriented thinking. We need to stop thinking what-might-have-been. Nobody can see the future and these are 50-50 calls, you can fall on the wrong side of the coin.

    The lack of premium options like Kane, Vardy, Mané and De Bruyne plays a part too, as we won’t normally have this much money to invest. When they are back it is perfectly fine to convert Souček to say a 7th attacker. Even this week I have received a countless number of questions asking who to bench. Honestly, when you ask me whether to bench the likes of Grealish, Watkins, Calvert Lewin, Raphinha, Soucek, Barnes and Gündoğan there is no right answer as all have the pedigree to do well. Just back your gut and play whoever you think is getting the most points and if you get it wrong, don’t beat yourself about it.

    Q: How to cope with the upcoming double GW 24? Who are the must-have assets to own?

    Man City: I believe most of us have triple City already. The optimum combination I’d pick would be Cancelo, one of Stones or Dias, and one of Gündoğan or Sterling.

    Everton: I think Calvert Lewin is more than enough given that two of the next three fixtures are against Man United and Man City away. Digne I’d hold if you have him, but I would be in no rush to buy.

    Fulham: Their defensive stats in recent times have been abysmal while the distribution of points in their midfield and attack is extremely random. I’d avoid.

    Burnley: Now Burnley are the team which interest me the most, given their fixtures not only in the double but also either side of it (BHA cry,FUL WBA). Nick Pope is the man to buy in my opinion – he is second for FPL points and saves among keepers this season. He also has the best mins per baseline BPS ratio of all Burnley defenders, so with the accumulation of bonus he will haul big whenever Burnley are to keep a clean sheet. It’s also worth noting that in the reverse fixtures, he accumulated 9 points v Brighton, 11 points v West Brom and 10 points against Palace (yet to play Fulham). I now run a comparison between their defenders:

    Lowton v Mee v Tarkowski

    Mins per chance created: 255 v 342 v 675
    Mins per shot in the box: 1530 v 168.75 v 172
    Mins per big chance:  1530 v 1350 v 570
    Mins per penalty area touch: 306 v 58.69 v 45
    Mins per baseline BPS: 8.4 v 7.4 v 9

    There is no standout in terms of those numbers – they make for dire reading. Honestly, you’d have to be lucky to pick the right defender here. I’d probably go with Mee, given that he has almost the same chance of getting an attacking return as anyone else but seems to do best with bonus accumulation.

    As far as the Burnley attack is concerned, they are second worst for big chances and xG over the season so there’s not much to say. Chris Wood is the only one who would slightly appeal – and that too for FPL managers wildcarding immediately after the double.

    Q: In this section, I analyze the dip in Aston Villa’s defensive numbers in recent weeks.

    Aston Villa GW 1-16 v GW 17-22: (league position in brackets)

    Shots conceded in the box per game: 6.7 (5th) v 10.8 (18th)
    Big chances conceded per game: 1.2 (4th) v 2.2 (17th)
    Average xG conceded per game: 1 (3rd) v 1.7 (18th)

    As shown, Villa’s defensive stats from GW 1 to 16 were exemplary where they were on the right side of the spectrum as far as league rankings for defensive numbers were concerned. However, over the previous six matches, these numbers have witnessed an alarming decline which should be a cause of concern for FPL managers who own their defensive assets and Emi Martínez.

    Arsenal’s GW 1-16 v GW 17-22 (league position in brackets)

    Shots inside the box per game: 7.3 (10th) v 9.5 (5th) 
    Big chances per game: 1.5 (13th) v 2.1 (7th) 
    Average xG per game: 1.1 (12th) v 1.7 (4th) 

    As shown, Arsenal’s attacking stats from GW 1 to GW 16 were mediocre at best. However, over the previous six matches, Arsenal’s attacking stats have shown a visible improvement which when put together with Villa’s defensive decline are pointing to Arsenal scoring again at the weekend. I’m aware that Martínez makes tons of saves, but FPL managers who can afford to bench him might be better served doing so according to the data available. Same applies to the Villa defensive assets as well.

    Q: How to cope with the upcoming double GW 25? Who are the must-have assets to own?

    In this section, I’ll talk about Leeds first who have a double GW (wol SOT) coming up in GW 25. The Raph and Bam duo is one to keep an eye on and of late their goal involvements are increasingly akin to those of Kane and Son.

    I say that because in the past five matches, Raphinha and Bamford have been involved in approximately 71% of Leeds’ big chances, telling me that almost every attack goes through them. Their numbers as of late have been great, with both of them averaging at least one big chance involvement in the past three matches. They have a decent price tag and they are a great, explosive duo going into the double.

    Leeds are among the top four teams this season for xG non-penalty away from home, so I would be confident going into the Wolves fixture. Then they face Southampton who have also been really struggling and going through a poor run of form. Then they have Villa in GW 26 and I have already spoken about their defensive regression in recent times. This tells me that they not only are a good option going into double GW 25, but also offer potential for points in GW 26.

    However, I would not advise investing in Leeds defenders. The defensive numbers of Leeds are very poor. Anyone who owns Dallas can go into the Leeds double with him, but I would not suggest buying him or any other Leeds defensive asset based on attacking threat alone. I would be really surprised if Leeds kept a clean sheet in any of the fixtures in GW 25 and 26.

    It’s hard to write about Southampton after the 9-0 drubbing. I expect a reaction, and perhaps I think there’s a chance that McCarthy might even be dropped for Forster (Hasenhüttl did similar with Gunn after the 9-0 loss). There is a chance that Southampton have three doubles back-to-back in DGW 25,26 and 27. I think the play is to wait and watch their assets this GW, before making a call on who to invest in for the fixtures coming up.

    Q: Is it better to wildcard in the coming weeks or holding it post GW 29?

    At the cost of repeating myself, chip strategies should be team specific and dependent on the assets you own. Assuming that someone has the wildcard and bench boost intact, I would try to make the most out of the bench boost by wildcarding in one of the prior weeks – either in GW 24 or 25. I believe there are big swings to take advantage of by wildcarding earlier given the way the doubles are likely to be structured. I would think short-term till GW24, maximize my score there before wildcarding to set myself for a bench boost. It seems as if GW 29 will feature around 4-5 fixtures of the lesser teams so for those with Free Hit, that seems the optimal time to use it rather than in one of the doubles – as we are likely to own most of the double GW 26 assets (Spurs, Man City etc) beforehand anyway.

    Q: In this section, I address the captaincy debate this GW.

    Firstly I assess the impact of Pogba on Bruno’s returns:

    Bruno without Pogba 20/21 (15 matches) v Bruno with Pogba 20/21 (7 matches)

    Mins per chance created: 25 v 39
    Mins per big chance created: 101 v 208
    Mins per shot in the box: 58 v 78
    Mins per big chance: 111 v 208
    FPL points per game: 8.7 v 4.4

    I personally think the sample size is reasonable enough to suggest that even though Bruno remains a good asset to own regardless of Pogba's presence, his ceiling definitely reduces when Pogba plays. This could be due to the fact that Pogba likes carrying the ball a lot which limits Bruno's movement. I think for Bruno to be at his best, he needs players around him who make good runs which is not always the case for Pogba who wants often the ball to himself. This is just something worth keeping in mind whenever you are likely to captain Bruno. Having said that, this trend has only been noticed this season - in Project Restart, Bruno had five goals and four assists with Pogba on the field so the jury's still out.

    Everton are unbeaten in their past six away games, having conceded just five times over those games so this may not be as easy as may sound on paper. United are in form though, having accumulated the highest number of big chances in the past six GWs.

    I now look at Heung Min Son as an option. Worryingly, Spurs have accumulated an xG of barely one in the 190 minutes of football played after Harry Kane’s injury. During this spell, they are bottom in the league for big chances created. Regardless of that, Spurs are still the most likely team tipped to score 2.5+ goals this week – which in all probability is because of the fixture alone. West Brom’s defensive numbers have been the worst this season and unfortunately for them, the trend has continued with alarming consistency despite Big Sam’s introduction.

    Q: In this section, I assess the impact of Antonio on West Ham since his return.  

    I now run a comparison to assess the massive impact that Antonio has had on West Ham's attack this season:

    West Ham without Antonio v West Ham with Antonio

    Shots in the box per game: 8.1 v 9.1
    Big chances per game: 1.8 v 2
    Average xG per game: 1.1 v 1.7

    I think it's fair to say that the impact on a player on his team is immense given that the average xG per game increases by almost 55% on his introduction. Not only that, no player in the league has recorded more big chances or has a better expected minutes per goal involvement than Antonio since his return. He's the number one forward to own in my opinion right now.

    Fulham are bottom for big chances conceded in the last six games and they are third worst for xG conceded non-penalty, in the same spell. Numbers tell me that Antonio and company are likely to score a few past a defensively struggling Fulham side. This is why I believe Antonio might be an outside shout for captaincy this week as well for those looking at a differential. West Ham are in really good form and come up against Fulham, whose attacking improvements seem to have masked their defensive frailties at the back.

    Q: In this section, I discuss Liverpool’s lack of form and Salah in particular.  
    Liverpool GW 10-22 Home v Liverpool GW 10-22 Away

    Shots in the box per game: 10 v 8.57
    Big chances per game: 1.3 v 2.9
    Average xG per game: 1.4 v 1.8

    What I read from this is that of late, Liverpool are more suited to playing on the counter away from home rather than against deep blocks at home where they still tend to create a decent amount of chances but are struggling for form due to lack of quality chance creation. Even despite their recent struggles, Liverpool are ranked in the top three for big chances and xG per game in away matches from GW 10-22 so their underlying numbers away from home are perfectly fine. A similar trend is followed by Salah, who is averaging 90 mins per big chance away from home during this period compared to 161 mins per big chance at home. One can argue that the City game might suit the Liverpool attack though, as they may have to play a counter attacking style rather than in the usual possession-based manner at home.

    As far as their defenders are concerned, I’d be looking to sell. Imagine me telling you at the start of the season that we’d be sitting on the 5th of Feb 2021 and Liverpool would have conceded more big chances than Burnley and Newcastle over the season – incredible.

    Q: In this section, I analyze Man City and whether or not it makes sense to play their assets against Liverpool.

    Man City continued on their merry ways against Burnley. A ridiculous stat I noted from the game was that they recorded approximately 27 times the xG of Burnley in that game. Gündoğan created the most chances, including two big chances and was unlucky not to have recorded another assist. This could easily have been one of them games where Sterling hauled big but he was denied by Nick Pope time and again. His numbers are improving and a haul is around the corner. If I owned double City defence and one of Gündoğan/Sterling, I wouldn’t be selling one for the other.  

    Man City have conceded just once in the league in almost 1400 minutes that Stones has played in this season, so it feels bizarre leaving the likes of Dias/Stones on the bench even though on paper Liverpool appears to be a tough fixture. I don’t think it’s mad playing two Man City defenders in this fixture, because I expect it to be low scoring. I think Liverpool will score though because as quoted above this game may suit their counter attacking style. Cancelo I would 100% play regardless, such is the attacking threat he possesses.

    Q: In this section, I discuss Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan Bissaka and Marcos Alonso.

    Shaw has the best minutes per chance created ratio of all defenders this season. He is second only to Robertson for chances created (just 3 chances behind!) having played almost 600 minutes fewer than him. What’s also interesting is that he has created more chances than even Bruno Fernandes in the past six matches. This tells us about the form and pedigree of Shaw.

    Another defender being brought up is Wan Bissaka and how he might be a better option to own. Now I am going to run a comparison of both the United defenders to dig deeper into this analysis:

    Shaw v Wan Bissaka (20/21 season averages)

    Mins per chance created: 39.85 v 128.57
    Mins per big chance created: 199.29 v 900
    Mins per touch in final third: 3.01 v 4.51
    Mins per penalty area touch: 45 v 81.81
    Mins per baseline BPS: 5.5 v 6.3

    As seen in the analysis I ran, Shaw seems to be by far and away the better option. Wan Bissaka did stack up a haul last GW but given Shaw’s consistency, I expect him to outscore Wan Bissaka. I don’t see Ole dropping him anytime soon due to his form either and thus, he would be my pick out of the two United defenders.

    Now I talk about another defender who might be worth owning over the next few GWs, Marcos Alonso. For those who are wildcarding soon, Alonso looks the ideal short-term punt.

    Chelsea have been solid defensively since Tuchel’s arrival – and are yet to concede a goal under him. Tuchel has been playing with five at the back and has been preferring Alonso over Chilwell for the left wing back position. Alonso does play the role really well, as he provides both defensive and an attacking threat with the additional attribute of him being able to take decent freekicks too. Chelsea are second best for shots inside the box and xG conceded, only behind Man City since Tuchel has taken over – which is partly due to the fact that Chelsea have been keeping an obscene amount of possession which restricts the opposition from getting too many chances.

    Chelsea have a good run of fixtures coming up (shu, NEW and sou), and for those who are looking to wildcard sometime soon, Alonso might be a good differential.

    This brings me to the end of the article. I would like to thank @urboihamza (on Twitter) whose contribution has been immense helping me to release this on time. It would be great if you could offer him some encouragement too (follows/feedback appreciated!).

    If you are looking to follow my work, follow me at:

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/bigmanbakar

    Instagram: http://instagram.com/bigmanbakar

    YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtIPFexB6PLKNNl0XH3SKKw

    YouTube Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thefplwire

    Thank you for reading! 

    1. wulfrunian
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Thank you as always.Excellent analysis.

    2. HammersXI
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      I'm a Leeds fan, and just read the Leeds section, I think there should be some caution in Leeds assets. This was the same Wolves team that won us 1-0 in the reverse fixture. Yes Jimenez played but Leeds do not do well against teams who sit back and go on the counter. Southampton is a bigger wildcard esp after the 9-0 game. I wouldn't be keen on 3 Leeds assets, and since I have Dallas I wont be getting Raph (Already have Bamford). With Rodrigo out, our creativity will drop a bit, as compared to the Lei game

      Great post nonetheless. Just a Leeds fan's perspective

    3. the snazzy viking
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      brilliant as ever

    4. Fit_to_drop
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Brilliant. I love getting these each week. Very helpful in formulating strategy and deciding on transfers. Well done. Keep them coming.

    5. diesel001
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Best contribution of the GW, every GW. Don't know why you haven't been hired by FFS tbh. Use the stats properly.

    6. Celt Abroad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Thanks so much for this, brilliant review. You’ve tackled all the big issues I was weighing up.

    7. Big Mac 24
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Thanks!!

    8. And Solskjaer Has Won It
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Great article as always. Have there been any rumours of McCarthy getting dropped? None of the goals were his fault were they?

    9. Mogger11
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      My favourite read every week. Thanks again.

    10. McMurphy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Another outstanding review, thank you Big Man. Not only is the statistical information extremely helpful but you understand FPL so well that you always cover the most important questions/dilemmas each week. Bravo my friend.

    11. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Awesome as always!
      It also confirms my team has some major issues that needs sorting out

    12. jia you jia you
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Top quality analysis as usual, cheers Big Man!

      1. Debauchy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Appreciate your work Big Man !

    13. Lindelol
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 3 days ago

      thanks

  9. Oldie99
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Play 2 of this lot please:

    A. Stones
    B. Digne
    C. Lookman
    D. Matheus Pereira

    1. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      BD

  10. OLLY G
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    I've got to hand it to Mourinho, it's quite a feat that he's managed to get me questioning Son at home to a dire West Brom side.

    He's like the grim reaper of football.

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Funniest post today. But also the most accurate.

  11. Original Pirate Material
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Fulham conceded most headed shot over last 4 gameweeks.

    Soucek in.

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Creswell and Coufal to supply

  12. tricpic
    • 11 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Benching dilemma

    Bench one from
    a) Grealish (ars home)
    b) Watkins (ars home)
    c) DCL (manu away)
    d) Antonio (ful away)

    Play one from
    1) Mee (bha home)
    2) Holding (avl home)
    3) Bednarek (new away)

    On c2 at the moment.

    1. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      C2

    2. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      C3

    3. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      C1

    4. joey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      C1 for me

  13. SharkyT
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Bench one from each

    DEFENCE:
    A) Cancelo
    B) Mee
    C) Dallas

    MID/ATTACK:
    1) Gundo
    2) DCL

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      C2

  14. Deulofail
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    I have no idea what to do

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Best move will be a bottle of beer then

      1. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        then...

        You left us hanging?

      2. Deulofail
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        It's working!

        1. La Roja
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          😛

  15. tissae
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    Bednarek to:
    A) Rudiger
    B) Mee
    C) Justin
    D) else?

    1. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Mee

    2. Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      If it's me....

      Marcos Goalozo

      The FPL legend from Chelsea

      But he might not be Nailed.

  16. PP6
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 4 days ago

    What about this BB in 24?
    Would then WC in 25 with plenty of funds and allows me to TC in 26

    Martinez Pope
    AWB Cancelo Stones Targett Mee/Lowton
    Salah Sterling Bruno Soucek 7.0/6.5
    Antonio Bamford DCL.

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      with a few transfers, your team looks well rigged for DGW 26, don't need to WC, IMO. Unless you have both WC and FH left

      1. PP6
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Yes have both left I’ll defo consider keeping it

        But what about the BB in 24 looks good or not a fan?

        1. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          Think BB in GW 24 looks good

  17. Eightball
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Did Button to Pope with one of my free transfers. I currently have another free transfer.

      My defense is:
      Mitchell - Robbo - Stones - Dias - Coufal

      I have 3.9m in the bank so money not really an issue and am likely to wildcard in 25 for a BB 26.

      The options i'm looking at are Mitchell/Robbo to:

      A) Digne
      B) Mee
      C) Shaw
      D) roll the transfer

    • ChickenTikkaMoSalah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Zouma to:
      A) Justin
      B) Shaw
      C) Mee
      D) Alonso

      1. La Roja
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        D

      2. PP6
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        C

      3. Neo-Viper
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        B

      4. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        A = smart analytical move
        B = smart move
        C = boring move
        D = badass move

    • tissae
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Dias or DCL first on bench?

      1. Neo-Viper
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Tough. Prob DCL

      2. @fpl_phenom
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Dias ... should be starting IMO...

    • @fpl_phenom
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Pick 1...
      A: Lingard

      or

      B: Hudson odoi

      Ignoring price just whos the best fpl asset ?

      1. Neo-Viper
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        CHO

      2. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Not enough sample size to be fair.

        But picking the right one this early will be a great differential

        CHO has the better team

        Lingard was able to run-amuck in the last game.

        1. @fpl_phenom
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          its for my draft league.... not much available... I have CHO but feel Lingard is maybe more nailed on.... tricky one

          1. @fpl_phenom
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 months, 4 days ago

            his 2 goals should have been saved though to be fair

    • Camino Aleatorio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Who is Benching Salad this week?

      I have 6M in the bank so my FPL team is stacked with better options than Salad vs MCI.

      Why play a Liverpool player when they are about to be Curve Stomped by Pep?

      If you can't score on Burnley or Brighton, why do we expect returns against the best defense in Europe?

      1. Neo-Viper
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Never bench Salah.

      2. @fpl_phenom
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        im benching him too... thoughts on above?

    • Neo-Viper
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      **Repost**

      Captain who?

      1) Antonio
      2) Son
      3) Bruno

      Chasing the leader by 50 points!!

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        theyre the 3 im stuck on.... Bruno has pens, form and utd are the best attacking team in the league... I guess Bruno .. but its a tough call... thoughts on above?

        1. Neo-Viper
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          Going for Antonio. just because I feel he has a haul coming but I agree. everything that United does is fuelled by Bruno.

      2. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Did you watch Spurs and Chelsea?

        Then see if Son should be on your list, much less even on your team

        Fat Sam prolly thinks he can take 3 points from Moribund Spurs

      3. joey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        I've got all 3 and will probably go Bruno, Everton have been pretty shaky at the back last couple of games, even Newcastle could have had 4. Antonio is a good option but Son hasn't even entered into it for me despite West Brom being useless, Spurs look rubbish going forward

      4. AlpoShearer
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Tough, but i go Antonio

    • Boleyn Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Afternoon All. Planning ahead for DGW 24, which combination is best? Thanks in advance:

      a) Ederson & Mee
      b) Pope & Dias

      1. Neo-Viper
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        B by a mile

      2. @fpl_phenom
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        B

      3. joey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        B easily. If they both keep clean sheets Pope will likely outscore Ederson due to saves/bonus and Dias is a bonus magnet as well. I know Mee has a couple but think Dias is just as threatening.

        1. Boleyn Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          Excellent. Always good to get a consensus. Thanks!

    • Nightcrawler
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Fpl Round 7 likely comes down to

      Him: Bruno, Dallas, Fabianski, DCL, Justin, Sterling

      Vs

      Me: Cresswell, Antonio, McCarthy, Maguire, Son x2

      WHO wins?

      YOU DECIDE!

      .

    • The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Sigh!
      Does an Everton fan captain Fernandes this week and hope he blanks.
      Catch 22.

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Head over heart mate

      2. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        If your an Everton fan, you should know your team is rubbish better than the rest of us.

        1. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          lol.

    • joey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Anyone considering Alonso? Decent next few fixtures and if you have a wildcard you'll probably be using it around then anyway

    • tabby98
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Mccarthy, Johnstone
      Cancelo, Stones, Coufal, Digne, Justin
      Salah, Bruno, Son, Soucek, Raphinha
      Bamford, DCL, Antonio

      1FT £1.8M ITB

      What do I do here guys?

      1. SharkyT
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 4 days ago

        McCarthy to Pope

        1. tabby98
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 4 days ago

          Is there anyone else worth swapping out? Salah?

          1. SharkyT
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 4 days ago

            I wouldn’t swap Mo out for a hit no

    • SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Captain:

      A) Bruno... Obvious move
      B) Son... Spurs are sheet but could pay
      C) Antonio... Big spuds move

    • Tambling5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 4 days ago

      Good to go? Sub order right. 1FT only 0.1 itb
      Martinez; Cancelo, Digne, Justin
      Salah, Bruno, Sterling, Grealish
      DCL, Antonio(C), Bamford
      Subs 4.0; Stones, ESR, Mitchell
      Thank you

    • BW25
        3 months, 4 days ago

        Can't decide Stones, Cancelo or Bednarek. Coufal as 3rd def in 3
        Any thoughts?