Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Play Up Pompey!

  2. Igz08
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Can't decide guys:

    Antonio or Watkins?

    Soucek or Grealish?

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      This week?

      1 hammer and 1 villain. A and G.

    2. Igz08
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Currently have DCL, Antonio and Soucek starting ahead of Watkins and Grealish

  3. how now brown cow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Hmm. DCL...

    A - sell
    B - play over one of grealish / Soucek
    C - bench. Play both grealish and soucek

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      C

    2. Igz08
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Im inclined to play him

    3. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      C.
      I’ll be selling DCL or Antonio next week for Kane and Bamford/Ings.

      1. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Same here. Already taking a hit so benching him with a view to using him to get Kane in. No point taking another hit.

  4. Will
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    What DGW players are people going for?

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Ben Mee and Gundogan

    2. Will
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Currently Gun, Stones, Dias, DCL, Pope, Lowton

  5. ZakyJ
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Im likely to WC next week so have 2FT and lots of funds to use:

    Martinez
    Coufal Stones Cancelo
    Gundo Salah Grealish Soucek Bruno
    Antonio DCL

    (Forster Bamford Allioski Justin)

    1. could just do Stones & Soucek to Mee & Sterling?

    2. If not i will do Allioski > Mee and also bring in
    A. Lookman
    B. Richarlison
    C. Jamez

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      1

    2. Will
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Why drop Stones?

  6. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Lowton is getting 18 points this week

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      I bought mee last week as I shop in waitrose not lidl, so that will probably come true.

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Mee is Sainsbury’s, Tarkowski is Waitrose

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Pope must be harrods?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Oh yeah, platinum club

      2. Mr. O'Connell
        • 9 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Poundland Pieters
        Lidl Lowton
        Morrison's Mee
        Tesco Tarkowski

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Promise?

    3. hullcityfan
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Captain him then.

  7. Ohh1454
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Start Dallas or DCL ?

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Dunno. It's all such a pain in the arse.

    2. STONEROSES
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Would prob go striker rather than defender away to arsenal (even though it’s not exactly prime arsenal)

    3. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Dallas vs Ars or DCL vs Man City.
      I'd pick Dallas

  8. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Thoughts about DCL and Son -> Ings and James for free?

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      I mean, looks ok next 2.

    2. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      I like Ings.. not sold on James given fixtures

  9. Chandler Bing
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    What's the latest on Rodri injury?

    1. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Fit - cappo Gundogan

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      He’s fine, trained

    3. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      looked good in training, ready for selection and good to go!

  10. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    For GW25 would you rather:

    A. Martinez (LEI)

    B. McCarthy (CHE, lee)

    Thanks

  11. JBG
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    DCL to Richarlison or Cavani for -4? Or just keep him and play over Son?

    1. tokara
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Son

      1. JBG
        • 3 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        What?

    2. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      bench DCL not worth moving for a hit now. Play Son instead.

    3. Kabayan
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Play Son

  12. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Foden > Sterling for free or a waste of a FT?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Absolute waste

      1. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Cheers, hoping Foden can haul....

    2. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      I have sterling. That would be a waste on the face of it.

    3. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      I’d hold.. debating the city mid double vs defence though myself

  13. northernmuppet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    What’s the views on city triple..

    A) Gungo / Sterling / Cancelo
    B) Gungo / Stones / Cancelo

    To get Sterling I need to transfer out stones (looking at Shaw)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      A

  14. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 15 days ago

    Bench two plz

    A) Grealish
    B) Watkins
    C) Coufal
    D) Wood
    E) Rafinha

    1. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      C and D

  15. Zlatan F.C
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Double Burnley defence? Pope and Mee or Pope and Lowton

      1. STONEROSES
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Mee

    • Chandler Bing
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Anyone going Barnes?

      1. STONEROSES
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Got him but worth playing ahead of DCL & SON?

        1. Chandler Bing
          • 5 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Sorry, I meant the Burnley Barnes haha. I would play Son there.

    • how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Justin's such a bummer as well. It's all gloom.

      Kwp in next week perhaps.

    • STONEROSES
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Play one:

      1. Son
      2. Harvey Barnes
      3. DCL

      1. unclesbasement
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Son imo..Tottenham always manage to score against city

    • Mr. Mystic
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Bring in Mee, Lowton or Tark?

    • unclesbasement
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Who do I bench rafinha or coufal

    • Cech's Magic Hat
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      WC in 25 so who is the best one week punt? Any position, any price, no Man City players.

      Names on my radar: JRod, Mee, Rashford

      1. STONEROSES
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        CAVANI

      2. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        The 3 you mention. Tarko it Lowton perhaps. Richalison Or Cavani too

      3. unclesbasement
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Brought in Rashford for Barnes....think its a really good punt

      4. Cech's Magic Hat
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Thanks all. DCL to Cavani looks like one to consider then

    • Malinwa
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      Double City defence? Dias + Cancelo... do or don't?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Do

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Do it!

      3. Malinwa
        • 4 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Cancelo will play ?

        1. Tinkermania
          • 1 Year
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Why wouldn't he?

          1. Malinwa
            • 4 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Illness - 75% chance of playing ?

      4. northernmuppet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Thinking of taking one of mine out (stones) to get Sterling / Gungo instead

    • RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 15 days ago

      What would you guys suggest here with 1FT and 6.6itb. Open to all offers 🙂

      Pope
      Coufal, Dias*, Cancelo
      Son, Bruno, Soucek, Gündo
      Bamford, Antonio*, DCL*
      (McCarthy, Raphina, Dallas, Robbo)

    • NateDogsCats
        5 months, 15 days ago

        Pope
        Digne Dias AWB Cresswell
        Salah Bruno Gundogan Grealish
        Antonio Lacazette
        (Martinez Maddison Justin Brewster)

        Should I just go with this? Know I have to lose Justin but hoping it wont become a necessity this week and looking to ship Laca and Brewdog to Ings and Bamford next week, so figure I'm best to just hold ft and do it all for -4 next week?

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          missing a 3rd City player in your team

          1. NateDogsCats
              5 months, 15 days ago

              Is it worth doing Justin to Cancelo or Stones if I'll only keep for 3GWs? Who would I drop from the first XI?

        2. jam
          • 11 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Play B. Bamford or C. Coufal? There is no A. 🙂

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 2 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Got to be Bamford. He is in good form, Leeds have great away from, he is on pens and Arsenal are missing Tierney and Partey

        3. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          I'm benching DCL. Who to start?

          A. Cresswell
          B. Soucek

          2FT 5.7itb
          Martinez
          Cancelo Stones Digne
          Salah Bruno Gundo Raphinha
          Bamford Antonio DCL
          (Johnstone Soucek Cresswell Holding)

        4. The Colonel
          • 7 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Which 3 to bench?
          A) Coufal
          B) Mitchell
          C) Son
          D) Rashford
          E) Bobby Reid
          F) Bamford
          G) Rafinia

          Leaning towards A, B and E (despite the DGW)

        5. Malinwa
          • 4 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Is Cancelo fit to play?

          1. Pukki Party
            • 4 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Why wouldn't he be?

            1. Malinwa
              • 4 Years
              5 months, 15 days ago

              Illness - 75% chance of playing ?

              1. Tinkermania
                • 1 Year
                5 months, 15 days ago

                You mean DIAS?

                1. Malinwa
                  • 4 Years
                  5 months, 15 days ago

                  omg... yeah ! Will he play?

                  1. Tinkermania
                    • 1 Year
                    5 months, 15 days ago

                    They are 2 different people you know.

                    1. Malinwa
                      • 4 Years
                      5 months, 15 days ago

                      Sorry, my bad...what about Dias' fitness?

          2. Tinkermania
            • 1 Year
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Why wouldn't he be fit?

            1. Malinwa
              • 4 Years
              5 months, 15 days ago

              Due to illness?

        6. Pukki Party
          • 4 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          Thoughts here? 2ft 1.1itb

          Martinez
          Cancelo Stones Taylor
          Salah Son Bruno Soucek Anguissa
          Antonio Bamford

          Ramsdale DCL Robbo Holding

          A) Anguissa, Robbo to Gundogan, Mee (play over Taylor i guess)

          B) Stones, Salah, Anguissa to Tarkowski, Gundogan, Sterling -4

          C) Anguissa, Soucek, Robbo, Stones to Foden, Gundo, Tarkowski, Mee -8

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            A

            1. Pukki Party
              • 4 Years
              5 months, 15 days ago

              Thanks Pat.

          2. Pukki Party
            • 4 Years
            5 months, 15 days ago

            Repost on next page.

        7. ShaunGoater123
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 months, 15 days ago

          think i'm set on a -4 doing the following 3 transfers and hoping Antonio plays, if not bamfrod comes in:

          Stones > Mee
          Son > Sterling
          DCL > Ings

          Pope
          Maguire / Cancelo / Mee
          Salah / Sterling (C) / Soucek / Gundogan / Fernandes
          Ings / Antonio

          McCarthy / Bamford / Targett / Dallas

          Son or Kane can come in for 26, or maybe even wildcard if needed