Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play Up Pompey!

  2. Igz08
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Can't decide guys:

    Antonio or Watkins?

    Soucek or Grealish?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      This week?

      1 hammer and 1 villain. A and G.

    2. Igz08
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Currently have DCL, Antonio and Soucek starting ahead of Watkins and Grealish

  3. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hmm. DCL...

    A - sell
    B - play over one of grealish / Soucek
    C - bench. Play both grealish and soucek

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Igz08
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Im inclined to play him

    3. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C.
      I’ll be selling DCL or Antonio next week for Kane and Bamford/Ings.

      1. Avery
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Same here. Already taking a hit so benching him with a view to using him to get Kane in. No point taking another hit.

  4. Will
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What DGW players are people going for?

    1. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Ben Mee and Gundogan

    2. Will
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Currently Gun, Stones, Dias, DCL, Pope, Lowton

  5. ZakyJ
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Im likely to WC next week so have 2FT and lots of funds to use:

    Martinez
    Coufal Stones Cancelo
    Gundo Salah Grealish Soucek Bruno
    Antonio DCL

    (Forster Bamford Allioski Justin)

    1. could just do Stones & Soucek to Mee & Sterling?

    2. If not i will do Allioski > Mee and also bring in
    A. Lookman
    B. Richarlison
    C. Jamez

    1. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      1

    2. Will
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Why drop Stones?

  6. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Lowton is getting 18 points this week

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I bought mee last week as I shop in waitrose not lidl, so that will probably come true.

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Mee is Sainsbury’s, Tarkowski is Waitrose

        1. how now brown cow
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Pope must be harrods?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            Oh yeah, platinum club

      2. Mr. O'Connell
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Poundland Pieters
        Lidl Lowton
        Morrison's Mee
        Tesco Tarkowski

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Promise?

    3. mezza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Captain him then.

  7. Ohh1454
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Start Dallas or DCL ?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Dunno. It's all such a pain in the arse.

    2. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Would prob go striker rather than defender away to arsenal (even though it’s not exactly prime arsenal)

    3. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Dallas vs Ars or DCL vs Man City.
      I'd pick Dallas

  8. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts about DCL and Son -> Ings and James for free?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I mean, looks ok next 2.

    2. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I like Ings.. not sold on James given fixtures

  9. Chandler Bing
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What's the latest on Rodri injury?

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Fit - cappo Gundogan

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      He’s fine, trained

    3. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      looked good in training, ready for selection and good to go!

  10. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    For GW25 would you rather:

    A. Martinez (LEI)

    B. McCarthy (CHE, lee)

    Thanks

  11. JBG
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    DCL to Richarlison or Cavani for -4? Or just keep him and play over Son?

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Son

      1. JBG
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        What?

    2. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      bench DCL not worth moving for a hit now. Play Son instead.

    3. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Play Son

  12. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Foden > Sterling for free or a waste of a FT?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Absolute waste

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers, hoping Foden can haul....

    2. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I have sterling. That would be a waste on the face of it.

    3. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’d hold.. debating the city mid double vs defence though myself

  13. northernmuppet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What’s the views on city triple..

    A) Gungo / Sterling / Cancelo
    B) Gungo / Stones / Cancelo

    To get Sterling I need to transfer out stones (looking at Shaw)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

  14. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench two plz

    A) Grealish
    B) Watkins
    C) Coufal
    D) Wood
    E) Rafinha

    1. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C and D

  15. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Double Burnley defence? Pope and Mee or Pope and Lowton

    1. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mee

  16. Chandler Bing
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone going Barnes?

    1. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Got him but worth playing ahead of DCL & SON?

      1. Chandler Bing
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Sorry, I meant the Burnley Barnes haha. I would play Son there.

  17. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Justin's such a bummer as well. It's all gloom.

    Kwp in next week perhaps.

  18. STONEROSES
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play one:

    1. Son
    2. Harvey Barnes
    3. DCL

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Son imo..Tottenham always manage to score against city

  19. Mr. Mystic
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bring in Mee, Lowton or Tark?

  20. unclesbasement
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Who do I bench rafinha or coufal

  21. NobodyF*cksWithTheJesus
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    WC in 25 so who is the best one week punt? Any position, any price, no Man City players.

    Names on my radar: JRod, Mee, Rashford

    1. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      CAVANI

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      The 3 you mention. Tarko it Lowton perhaps. Richalison Or Cavani too

    3. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Brought in Rashford for Barnes....think its a really good punt

    4. NobodyF*cksWithTheJesus
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks all. DCL to Cavani looks like one to consider then

  22. Malinwa
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Double City defence? Dias + Cancelo... do or don't?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Do

    2. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Do it!

    3. Malinwa
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Cancelo will play ?

      1. Tinkermania
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Why wouldn't he?

        1. Malinwa
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Illness - 75% chance of playing ?

    4. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Thinking of taking one of mine out (stones) to get Sterling / Gungo instead

  23. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What would you guys suggest here with 1FT and 6.6itb. Open to all offers 🙂

    Pope
    Coufal, Dias*, Cancelo
    Son, Bruno, Soucek, Gündo
    Bamford, Antonio*, DCL*
    (McCarthy, Raphina, Dallas, Robbo)

  24. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Pope
    Digne Dias AWB Cresswell
    Salah Bruno Gundogan Grealish
    Antonio Lacazette
    (Martinez Maddison Justin Brewster)

    Should I just go with this? Know I have to lose Justin but hoping it wont become a necessity this week and looking to ship Laca and Brewdog to Ings and Bamford next week, so figure I'm best to just hold ft and do it all for -4 next week?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      missing a 3rd City player in your team

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Is it worth doing Justin to Cancelo or Stones if I'll only keep for 3GWs? Who would I drop from the first XI?

  25. jam
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play B. Bamford or C. Coufal? There is no A. 🙂

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Got to be Bamford. He is in good form, Leeds have great away from, he is on pens and Arsenal are missing Tierney and Partey

  26. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I'm benching DCL. Who to start?

    A. Cresswell
    B. Soucek

    2FT 5.7itb
    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Digne
    Salah Bruno Gundo Raphinha
    Bamford Antonio DCL
    (Johnstone Soucek Cresswell Holding)

  27. The Colonel
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Which 3 to bench?
    A) Coufal
    B) Mitchell
    C) Son
    D) Rashford
    E) Bobby Reid
    F) Bamford
    G) Rafinia

    Leaning towards A, B and E (despite the DGW)

  28. Malinwa
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Is Cancelo fit to play?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Why wouldn't he be?

      1. Malinwa
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Illness - 75% chance of playing ?

        1. Tinkermania
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          You mean DIAS?

          1. Malinwa
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            omg... yeah ! Will he play?

            1. Tinkermania
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 1 month ago

              They are 2 different people you know.

              1. Malinwa
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 1 month ago

                Sorry, my bad...what about Dias' fitness?

    2. Tinkermania
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Why wouldn't he be fit?

      1. Malinwa
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Due to illness?

  29. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts here? 2ft 1.1itb

    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Taylor
    Salah Son Bruno Soucek Anguissa
    Antonio Bamford

    Ramsdale DCL Robbo Holding

    A) Anguissa, Robbo to Gundogan, Mee (play over Taylor i guess)

    B) Stones, Salah, Anguissa to Tarkowski, Gundogan, Sterling -4

    C) Anguissa, Soucek, Robbo, Stones to Foden, Gundo, Tarkowski, Mee -8

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks Pat.

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Repost on next page.

  30. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    think i'm set on a -4 doing the following 3 transfers and hoping Antonio plays, if not bamfrod comes in:

    Stones > Mee
    Son > Sterling
    DCL > Ings

    Pope
    Maguire / Cancelo / Mee
    Salah / Sterling (C) / Soucek / Gundogan / Fernandes
    Ings / Antonio

    McCarthy / Bamford / Targett / Dallas

    Son or Kane can come in for 26, or maybe even wildcard if needed