Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    DCL & Mitchell to Ings & Mee for -4?

    1. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Looks good

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Seems ok. DCL is only missing one game and they will have a couple of DGWs coming up

    3. unclesbasement
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Maybe just go for Mee this week and bring in Ings for the DGW next week if you have no other priority transfers

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      I like it on paper. But in context maybe not. Mee also likely overpaying when Lowton for 4.5m is likely worth the exact same.

    5. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Yes very good moves, go for it

    6. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Cheers everyone

  2. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    I'm thinking of Wcing in 25. Only have TC chip left.
    I will set up for 29 (villa, spurs, maybe Brighton).
    Is there any reason I'm missing on why that doesn't work?

    1. Kabayan
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      If you can set up for 29 with FTs, WC after 29 would be good.

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        I've been trying but it's tough. That's why I'm considering this

        1. Kabayan
          • 4 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          Then go for it but wait until the dgw fixtures are confirmed

  3. Pukki Party
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Bottomed. Thoughts here? 2ft 1.1itb

    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Taylor
    Salah Son Bruno Soucek Anguissa
    Antonio Bamford

    Ramsdale DCL Robbo Holding

    A) Anguissa, Robbo to Gundogan, Mee (play over Taylor i guess)

    B) Stones, Salah, Anguissa to Tarkowski, Gundogan, Sterling -4

    C) Anguissa, Soucek, Robbo, Stones to Foden, Gundo, Tarkowski, Mee -8

    1. Kabayan
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A

      1. Pukki Party
        • 4 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Thanks

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A

      1. Pukki Party
        • 4 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Cheers

  4. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Sadly for all concerned, Justin is a must sell, correct?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Yes

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Yep, as he's been so good this season (keeps destroying my rank)

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      ACL so out for the rest of the season probably

    4. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Cheers all 🙁

  5. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    A. Son
    B. DCL
    C. Rashford -4
    D. Mee/Tark -4

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      D - Mee

    3. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A or D

  6. Netters2018
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Any news on digne? Also who doesnt have a dbl gw in 26/27/28 is it west ham and arsenal?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Plus Brighton Newcastle

  7. bored by december
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Pope
    Stones Cancelo Maguire Dallas Coufal
    Bruno Grealish Sterling (TC)
    DCL Antonio

    Barnes Son Brewster

    GTG?

    No idea whether to play Banes or Son but hey ho!

  8. unclesbasement
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Bench Rafinha or Coufal

    1. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Coufal

  9. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Got 2ft and 4.5m in the bank. Any thoughts on best moves for this GW? Going to WC next week

    Martinez (Steer)
    Cancelo Dias Coufal (Mitchell Dallas)
    Salah Son Gundogan Bruno Grealish
    DCL Antonio (Brewster)

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Grealish ➡ Foden

      Martinez ➡ Pope

      1. Pukki Party
        • 4 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Needs to take out a ManCity def for that

      2. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Cheers, got loads of cash so can do Steer to Pope. Got 3 city already so rules out Foden move....I had looked at Son and Dias to Sterling (c) and Burnley defender and then maybe DCL to richarlison for a hit - can get Son back on WC next week

    2. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      If you're happy with those 3 ManCity i'd look at taking a punt for DCL, Cavani? And get in a Burnley def

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Thanks, thinking something similar. I had looked at richarlison but he's only scored 2 goals in the league this season! Cavani could be a great shout

        1. Pukki Party
          • 4 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          I took a punt on Richarlison against Newcastle and Leeds, could be a better asset with DCL injured,

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            5 months, 23 days ago

            That's true although Fulham might be tougher than it looks and then Man City so maybe not the best DGW. Cavani vs WBA will be totally overlooked

    3. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Mitchell -> Mee

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Cheers

    4. PURPLE-RONNIE
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Steer to pope and Mitchell to tark/mee. Bench DCL if he’s missing the Fulham game

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Thanks, looks solid moves but lots of eggs in Burnley defence

        1. PURPLE-RONNIE
          • 6 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          I know but it gives you a differential over most who will only have one bur def.

  10. TeddiPonza
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Team:

    Martinez
    Coufal Stones Dias Digne
    Bruno Gundogan Salah Grealish
    DCL Antonio
    (Son CTaylor Wilson)

    1ft and wildcard next week. Best move here:

    A. CTaylor to Tarkowski (bench DCL)
    B. DCL to Richarlison
    C. Wilson to Ashley Barnes (bench DCL)
    D. Something else

    Thanks!.

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A - Mee

  11. ZimZalabim
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    what are people with both DCL and Antonio doing then ?

    1. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      DCL > Watkins this week means I can afford Antonio > Kane next week

    2. Kuzser
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Playing Antonio, benching Dcl or selling for Cavani

    3. STONEROSES
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Keeping both for now.
      Might play barnes or son ahead of DCL, might not.
      Will play Antonio this week before shipping ahead of Gw26

    4. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Benching DCL and starting Antonio

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 4 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        thats what I was thinking as well and then ship Antonio for Ings next gw

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          I'm doing Antonio to Kane/Watkins

  12. Mr. Mystic
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Pick one:
    A) Lowton
    B) Mee
    C) Tarkowski

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Lowton

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      B

    3. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Tark apparently top for goal threat

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Lowton

  13. Rainer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Lowton enters the captaincy debate!

  14. Tonyawesome69
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    RP - I'm benching DCL. Who to start?

    A. Cresswell
    B. Soucek

    2FT 5.7itb
    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Digne
    Salah Bruno Gundo Raphinha
    Bamford Antonio DCL
    (Johnstone Soucek Cresswell Holding)

  15. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Is DCL a potential hold on the bench through DGW26?

    1. Kuzser
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      If you don’t have WC then yes

      1. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 23 days ago

        I have it but thinking of not using it until GW 30 - no free hit

  16. Kuzser
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Which combo would you prefer for next 2 game weeks?
    A) Cavani Mee/Tarko
    B) Rashford Lowton

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A - Cavani Mee

  17. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Basically need Foden to run riot or will be a wash out GW.....

  18. CABAYE4
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Who to start?

    A. DCL
    B. Adams
    C. Raphinha
    D. Kane (-4 but will likely be a hit next GW so just timing of the -4)

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Wouldn't get Kane this week, C for me

    2. Miro
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      B

  19. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Play lacazette or souceck ?

    1. Malinwa
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Soucek !

    2. Well you know, Triffic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Souck

  20. Gun gun
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Will you sell salah or barnes for foden?

  21. Goonerly
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Who do I sell:

    A) Dias
    B) Digne
    C) Stones

    Would be to get in a Burnley defender and upgrade midfielder to Gundo (already own Sterling)

    Rest of defence is Shaw & Rudiger

    1. Boly Would
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Doesn't it need to be A or C then, if you have 3 City already and want to bring in Gundo?

      1. Goonerly
        • 3 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Oh right, sorry... Jeez...
        Well, who would you pick then? Or should I just stick to double City defense?

        1. Boly Would
          • 5 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          Stick with City def's.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Stick with what you have

    3. Make ManeMane Make ManeMane
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Selling any of those 3 on DGW is madness. Would much rather drop Shaw.

  22. Malinwa
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    What about the fitness of Dias? Any news? Will he play?

    1. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 23 days ago

      If he doesn't play tomorrow, you got another chance in midweek.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Pep said he trained today

  23. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Here's a forgotten name: Jamie Vardy.

    Liverpool are defensively at their worst in years. Vardy also has really nice fixtures after that game. Villa away which is not really so bad for attackers and a very likely DGW in 26 of ARS/bur followed by a sea of green.

    Too early maybe? Should still be considered.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Too early after his surgery. Played 60 mins in the cup game. I would wait until he gets some more mins under his belt.

    2. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Too early for me.

    3. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      It’s probably him or Kane for many, Vardy will lose out a lot there.

    4. bored by december
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      he's on my watchlist for a couple of GW time, LEI have a lovely run of fixtures, i expect him to do well

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Decent option.

      Prefer Bam Antonio and Harry as my 3

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        I think my aim is to end up with a forward line of:

        Kane, Ings, Watkins.

        Kane and Watkins double in 26 with good fixtures and also very likely to have a game in 29. Ings could have 3 DGWs before GW29.

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 months, 23 days ago

          you looking to WC soon Camzy? Feel I can navigate 29 ok if Villa Spurs is on so might go early to allow me to get Kane in and attack the doubles

  24. Grounderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Folks, I’m seeing some folks who have all chips left but seem fixed not taking the route to WC in GW25 and BB GW26 - and do something different.

    Any reason why?

    1. Keeptrying
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Does not work for my team. I don't know when to bench boost.
      Even without WC I basically get the team I want for 25 and 26.
      If I spread the funds by using WC in 25 to have BB26 team, I'd weaken my team. At best it would be marginal gains for two chips.

  25. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    1FT & incredibly 6.6m ITB.
    WC, BB & TC all available.

    A. Robbo >> Burnley def
    B. Son/Soucek >> Salah/Jrod/Rashford
    C. Both -4.

    Pope
    Coufal, Dias*, Cancelo
    Son, Bruno, Soucek, Gündo
    Bamford, Antonio*, DCL*
    (McCarthy, Raphina, Dallas, Robbo)

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      A. Mee

    2. pwill40
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      B. Soucek for Jrod or Rash

  26. La Roja
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Looking to get 3rd City asset, got Stones and Gundo

    A)Grealish ➡ Foden
    B)Salah ➡ Sterlo

    1. bored by december
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      sterling

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Not sure on either of the guys you take out. Any other route?

      1. La Roja
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Rest of the midfields are Son Bruno

    3. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Join the Foden club 😎

      I reckon he’s full of confidence after the Liverpool game, rested and will play both

    4. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      I'd be tempted to do B but it's risky

  27. bored by december
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Pope
    Stones Cancelo Maguire Dallas Coufal
    Bruno Grealish Sterling (TC)
    Barnes Antonio

    DCL Son Brewster

    GTG?

    No idea whether to play Banes or Son but hey ho!

  28. Michelle Davin
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    So only max 4 games in GW29?

  29. Clarity
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    Hi all,

    Hope everyone is well.

    What is the most popular strategy on when to use the wildcard for the upcoming dgws and blank?

    Thanks!

  30. Miro
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 23 days ago

    What are people doing with Dias ? Can't see him playing both games. Is he a waste of city spot for the dgw then ?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Why won't he play both

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Pep confirmed he trained today. Don't see how you came to that conclusion

      1. Miro
        • 10 Years
        5 months, 23 days ago

        Might lack a bit of fitness after the 'illness' ? With Laporte available and a midweek game surely he might get a rest in one of the games ?

    3. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      If you think that and are only concerned for this DGW (have WC), sell him.

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      Are you talking about Brahim Diaz? He plays for Milan now...

      The other one has started every single PL game since his debut.

    5. hullcityfan
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 23 days ago

      He will play both - he's their best defender.