Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

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1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gun gun
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Help help! Sell barnes or salah for foden?

    1. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Erm..... Barnes

    2. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Barnes lol

    3. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Barnes

  2. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    G2g? Or would you make any changes to the bench?

    Martinez
    Dias Cancelo Digne Mee
    Salah Bruno Grealish Gundagon (c) Rafinha
    Watkins
    - Coufal Wood DCL

  3. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    WIll DCL have another DGW besides 26?

    1. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Yes, one in 27/28 - hence am benching him

  4. Tshelby
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Watkins (have Grealish) or Bamford on the bench?

    1. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Bamford

    2. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Wats

    3. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      watkins

  5. L S P
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    gtg and roll the FT?

    DDG
    Dias-Stones-Mee-Coufal
    Salah-Sterling-Bruno-Grealish-Soucek
    Antonio

    Forster-Bamford-Dallas-Brewster

    1. Rog.
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      I’d play Bam over Coufal personally

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Always play the attacker

      1. L S P
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        so...Brewster over Dias or Stones?

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Smart call. Seriously Bam over Couf though

        2. the snazzy viking
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          you know he meant Bamford 🙂

          1. L S P
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            there are no absolutes.

            1. the snazzy viking
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              fair enough you have to respect the brewster

  6. DBossman_2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    BB this? Martinez, Coufal, Cresswell, Son. Antonio and Dias are in my starting 11 so idk if its worth it if they do miss out? Thoughts?

    1. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      How is Son on your bench in any case?

      1. DBossman_2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Don't feel comfortable benching Bamford

    2. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Yes

    3. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      They won't miss total game/s imo

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Probably.

      I'm considering BB'ing with Martinez, Coufal, Mitchell and Son. Will probably hold for GW26 though.

      1. DBossman_2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        I'm just thinking I prefer Kane TC that week, and it means I don't need to focus on my bench for WC25 if I do it.

  7. Rog.
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    % chance of R James starting and playing at least 60 against Newcastle?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      80

  8. FFS Ultras are for Kinnear
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    I'm scared of no Sterling

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Get him in then.

    2. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Same. I wonder who the Sterling owners are overlooking?

      Gundogan or a second defender?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Second defender for me

      2. Gudjohnsen
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Gundogan

  9. vincentwsho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Is this worth a bench boost in GW24? Or wait for WC25, BB26?

    De Gea (wba)
    Coufal (SHU)
    DCL (MANC)
    Richarlison (FUL, MANC)

  10. J to the T
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    What is the status with McCarthy at Southampton? Noticed he didnt play FA Cup but cant see any update. Is he fit?

    1. moz_1983
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Forster has been playing the cup games. My worry is that he's been getting more clean sheets than McCarthy of late, but I'm sticking for now.

  11. FFFoxy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    QUESTION TIME;

    Any Digne updates?

    A) Rashford
    or
    B) J.Rod for next gameweek (24 only)

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Digne - no news is good news.

      J. Rod. Ancelotti confirmed he will start.

    2. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Rashford..

  12. AC/DC AFC
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    In all the talk of Sterling and injuries and Gundogan or Cancelo covering Rodri and defensive midfield...

    Is it Mahrez who hauls this game week?

    1. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Does he play?

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        We don't know.

    2. Whazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Rodri's fit

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Good.

        Thanks.

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Rodri is fit what you on about?

  13. The Smudger88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Pope
    Cancelo Lowton Dias
    Salah Bruno Grealish Son Bissouma
    Bamford Antonio

    Forster DCL Dallas Mitchell

    1 FT 1.7 itb
    Still have WC and BB

    Bissouma to Gundo/maybe Forden is my current thinking.
    Worth holding Antonio for one more week?
    Open to other suggestions.

    Cheers

    1. The Smudger88
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      *Foden

  14. lindeg
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Play one:

    A: Maddison (liv)
    B: Dallas (ars)

  15. SHOWSTOPPERRR
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    So guys based on the injury news I came to a decision need your suggestions though.

    Gw24 dcl Martin to Watkins pope free
    Gw25 save
    Gw 26 Dallas Antonio Pope to 4.5m dgw defender and 4.5 dgw gk and dcl for -4 which will leave me with the team

    Martinez pope
    Cancelo dias digne kwp dallas
    Salah bruno son gundo grealish
    Dcl Watkins bamford

    14 dgw plus bam..so bb 26 and build towards 29 and then wc..

    Seems good to me.Any suggestion guys? TIA.

  16. Matsy123
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Help would be appreciated lads
    A)Soucek to Gundo(have sterling and stones)
    B)Antonio to Cavani
    C)Both for -4

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A only

    2. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A

  17. Davros
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Oh wow just seen that Justin is out for rest of the season.

    Bring in Mee, Digne or Lowton?

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Lowton

  18. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Start Cresswell or Soucek?

  19. The Mighty Whites
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    DCL to?

    A - Richarlison
    B - Cavani
    C - Ings
    D - Bench and play Son

    1. moz_1983
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A for me.

    2. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      C or D

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      D

  20. Cometh The Aouar...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    I think what we have to weigh up as DCL owners is realistically how many points is he going to get v City?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      As realistic as his chances at Old Trafford?

      1. Cometh The Aouar...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Different defence

    2. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Not many. That is why he is on my bench

      1. Cometh The Aouar...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Yeah I might take same approach

    3. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      True, a lot benched him last week v utd, inc me!
      Yet a lot wondering if to give him the city game, that’s not a definite yet
      Gonna bench an play coufal

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      No. What you have to weigh up is the future points you’ll get if you just bench him this week instead of get rid

      1. Cometh The Aouar...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        See my reply above. Didn't say anything about getting rid pal.

  21. leonickroberts
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Pope
    Dias Cancelo Coufal
    Sterling(c) Salah Fernandes Barnes Soucek
    Bambo DCL

    (4.0, Dallas, Justin, Brewster)
    2 FT, 1.3m itb.

    Justin > Lowton and start instead of DCL, then Soucek > Raphinha next week and see how DCL looks?

  22. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Pope & Watkins for McCarthy & Wilson for -4? Worth it?

    Keeping DCL but should I play or bench him?

  23. And nothing else Mata'…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    Benching dilemma please help.
    One to the bench:

    A) Kane (vs City defense)
    B) Raphina (Benched him and Dallas last week - ouch)
    C) Antonio ( 75% ready - fatigue. WTF!)

  24. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    What annoys you more:

    A) not going with your gut and missing out on points

    B) going with your gut and your alternative hauling and missing out on points

    1. COK3Y5MURF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A

    2. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Got to be A

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      B.

      It hurts more when I let emotion rule over logic incorrectly since I'm trying to play as objectively correct as possible.

      Picking Rashford over Bruno in GW5 probably cost me 50 points and it's the mistake I kick myself the most over.

      I let my heart rule my head (Rashford just hit a hat-trick vs Leipzig vs the clearly superior stats and pens of Bruno).

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 28 days ago

        The little trust you have in your gut is a worry

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A everyday

    5. leonickroberts
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      A, hands down. Particularly when I've had the same hunch all week then been swayed by over-reading to the point my decision-making is shot and what feels carefully calculated is anything but.

  25. Toothless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 28 days ago

    I just can't make a decision.

    Justin + DCL ->

    a) Digne
    b) Mee/Tarkowski
    c) Lowton

    And

    1) Ings
    2) Cavani
    3) Richarlison/King

    ?

    1. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Mee richa

    2. Toothless
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Note: Already have Pope and 3 City players.

    3. Finding Timo
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Well I am likely to go mee & ings

    4. Ady87
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      If I’ve got TC and FH left what’s the play, hold FC for another double? Only got Gundo as a candidate obviously this week...

      1. Ady87
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        TC

    5. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Play?
      1. Dcl (possible to play against city)
      2. Antonio
      3. Dallas

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        2

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        I’m playing Antonio of these

      3. Boly Would
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        2

    6. estheblessed
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      What was the news on DCL and Antonio?

      1. Davros
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        DCL will miss Fulham, expects to play City

    7. Gudjohnsen
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Start 2?

      A. Digne
      B. Soucek
      C. Coufal
      D. Saka

      1. Benteke Fried Chicken
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Could you really bench digne?!

        Start digne soucek

    8. Scholes Out Forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      So sounds like Antonio, Dias and James should be ok, DCL is out?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Seems right