Spot the Differential

Fit-again Tierney can capitalise on Arsenal long-term fixture appeal

Double Gameweek 27 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United and Arsenal, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Kieran Tierney

Tierney back in Arsenal line-up as Thiago misses out for Liverpool
  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.2m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: bur | TOT | whu | LIV | shu

Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) has been one of Arsenal’s most consistent performers this season, and now back to full fitness could be a smart differential.

The Gunners recent upturn in form has seen them beat Leicester City and Benfica in back-to-back matches, and lose just one of their last five – a narrow 1-0 defeat to Manchester City.

In that loss against the league leaders, Tierney was heavily involved in the final-third with 26 touches in that zone, more than any other Arsenal player, and nine crosses. With plenty of freedom to get forward, his average position on the day was actually higher than that of team-mates Bukayo Saka (£5.2m) and Nicolas Pépé (£7.6m). 

However, he did look a little rusty at times, but has since improved and was excellent against Leicester, regularly bombing forward with plenty of overlapping runs. It is also worth noting that Tierney found the back of the net against Benfica in the Europa League last week, too.

His per 90 stats this season are also worth highlighting. Among all defenders who have played over 500 minutes, he ranks ninth for crosses and eighth for chances created. Considering he has been fielded as a left-sided centre-half on numerous occasions, those numbers are encouraging.

Next up for Arsenal is a trip to Burnley who have conceded the third-highest number chances from their right-flank this season. After that, the Gunners host Tottenham Hotspur in the North London Derby, before a Blank Gameweek 29 matchup against West Ham.

The left side is where Arsenal are at their most dangerous, and with Tierney’s ability to earn FPL points at both ends of the pitch, could be a nice differential for those willing to move away from the template.

Craig Dawson

  • FPL ownership: 1.0%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: LEE | mun | ARS | wol | LEI

Craig Dawson (£4.5m) moved to West Ham United on a season-long loan from Watford back in October.

The 30-year-old has had to be patient, but has now started the last 11 Premier League matches and established himself as an important player for David Moyes’ side.

The Hammers have been one of the best sides in the league this season, and have looked defensively sound throughout. As a team, they have conceded just 31 goals, kept nine clean sheets and rank fourth for expected goals conceded (xGC).

While the fixtures, at least on paper, aren’t exactly straightforward it is worth pointing out that West Ham beat Leeds United back in December, and it required extra time for Manchester United to see them off in the fifth round of the FA Cup. They narrowly lost 2-1 at Arsenal in September, but won convincingly against both Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leicester City earlier in the season, keeping clean sheets on both occasions. Crucially, they have a Blank Gameweek 29 fixture too, for those looking to navigate the blank without a Free Hit. 

However, Dawson’s appeal is further boosted by his aerial threat which has already seen him score three goals in all competitions this term. It could prove to be the difference maker against Leeds too, as the Whites have conceded the most goals in the Premier League from set-pieces this season, while West Ham have scored the most, with 13.

In a relatively short space of time, Dawson has proven he still has the ability to thrive in the Premier League, and could be a useful budget asset for the run-in.

Mbaye Diagne

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: NEW | cry | – | che | SOU

Mbaye Diagne (£6.0m) has enjoyed a promising start to life at West Bromwich Albion, and along with fellow January recruits Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m), Okay Yokuslu (£4.5m) and Robert Snodgrass (£5.6m), have made a real impact for Sam Allardyce’s side.

The Senegal international joined the Baggies from Galatasaray on loan until the end of the season, and has made seven Premier League appearances since, scoring one goal and providing two assists.

During that time, he ranks second amongst all forwards for expected goals (xG) which is encouraging, but he does need to add a more ruthless streak to his game. If he can do that, further goals will follow as he’s getting chances.

Albion are now nine points off safety, and face 17th place Newcastle United in a relegation six-pointer on Sunday. Given that the Magpies have a host of injuries including Callum Wilson (£6.5m), Miguel Almirón (£5.6m) and Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.1m), they will fancy their chances too. It’s also worth noting that Steve Bruce’s side have conceded 20 headed attempts in the last six matches, only Crystal Palace have allowed more, which is relevant with Diagne’s ability in the air.

The towering centre-forward will now be looking to add to his tally this weekend, and could be an effective differential for FPL managers on the lookout for a new forward.

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461 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Zlatan F.C
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Best Mee replacement from now till GW 29? I have Cancelo, Dias Dallas, Coufal

      1. JBG
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Dunk?

      2. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Targett
        Dawson

        1. Zlatan F.C
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Martinez in Goal

            1. Max City
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              doesn't matter

            2. Peter Ouch
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              As he said, it doesn't matter especially if they have a dgw on the 28

        2. Hasselbaink Forever
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I'm looking at Dunk

          1. Little Red Lacazette
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Same

        3. DannyDrinkVodka
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 18 days ago

          It's either Dunk or Targett, I keep wavering between the two

      3. Tinmen
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Is it worth -4 guys?

        Dier and Smith Rowe
        To
        Dawson and Jorginho -4

        1. Peter Ouch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Not for me

      4. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        What's the priority?

        Get a villa defender or replace Barnes with Lingard?

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          lose the inj player and in process get an extra player for 29

          1. Max City
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            agree..

          2. Peter Ouch
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I can easily bench him as I bb this week.

            No villa defender has killed my year but Lingard has a great potential against Leeds

        2. Vertigo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I'd be all in for Wham myself.

      5. Tshelby
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Saka or Lingard as replacement of Barnes?

        1. Peter Ouch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Lingard

        2. NateDogsCats
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Lingard probably but make sure you have cover for him next week

            1. Tshelby
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Also if I already have Antonio?

              1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Saka in that case

                1. Tshelby
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Cheers Klopps

              2. NateDogsCats
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  I like Saka, Soucek could be a good bet this week with Leeds poor at defending setpieces

          • Forever In Our Shadow
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking Fulham will get something from Anfield? Salah out was the better move I made last week.

          • Zlatan F.C
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Any nailed Spurs defenders?

              1. JBG
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Toby seems pretty nailed.

                1. Bobby Reds
                  • 10 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  How?

            • JBG
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Which one:

              A) Bench Barnes for Neto and bring Antonio in for DCL
              B) Barnes to Lingard
              C) Barnes + DCL to Lingard + Antonio -4

              1. golfboy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                B and bench DCL?

                1. JBG
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  And play Neto over DCL?

            • FPL Kaka
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Who to bench this week?

              a) Rudiger

              b) DCL

              1. golfboy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                B

            • Bleh
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Bottomed. Starting XI / bench order correct?

              Martinez
              Dias, Stones, Digne
              Salah, Son, Bruno, Gundo
              Kane, Antonio, Bamford

              Subs: Sanchez, Raphinha, Targett, Struijk

              1. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                I prefer Targett, and maybe Raph, to Bruno this week

            • Deulofail
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              FH29. WC31. What you thinking for this team?

              Was considering selling Mee for Reguilon/Rudiger/Pereira/Cresswell or ESR for Soucek. (Wish I sold ESR instead of Saka a couple of GWs ago).

              On reflection, I think saving the transfer would be wiser. Then I'd have 2FTs the following week to pick players for GW28 & 30 (possible DGWers too).

              Martinez
              TAA Cancelo! Stones! Targett
              Son Minamino!* Gundo! ESR*
              Kane Ings!

              McCarthy! | Bruno (mci), DCL (che), Mee (ARS)

              1 FT. 1.0 ITB.
              ! = DGW

              1. Ain't No Holebas Girl
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Saving looks a good option if you can, don't think any of the current considerations need bringing in urgently and you'll have much more info next week (and maybe decide you don't want any of them!). Capping Gundo?

                1. Deulofail
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Thanks. I expect to be capping Gundo yeah. Not really thought about it

            • HD7
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              1FT

              Martinez
              Cancelo Stones Mee
              Salah Bruno Gundo Son
              DCL Kane Bamford

              Fraser Strujik Bissouma Mitchell

              Mee to: Regulion, Targett or Dunk?

            • pingissimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Looking at this currently - pending pressers

              Ederson
              Stones Konsa Lowton
              Lingard Bruno Gundo Son Raph
              Antonio Watkins

              Martinez Shaw Bamford Dallas

              10.4 itb

              It involves a couple of early -2s so I’m not counting the -4. Should I do either of these as a genuine -4. I’m looking at the stretch of games up to 31/32 here and see this week as moving week.

              A Watkins to Kane
              B Lowton to Rudiger
              C Lowton to Digne
              D other

            • Espanyolie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 18 days ago

              McCarthy definitely dropped then? Swop to Forster a no brainer (also to free up some funds) ?

              1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                I would swap to a Martinez etc

              2. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Not a no-brainer. If you have no second GK, then Forster seems a silly pick tbh. If you do have a second GK, then it's still far from clear if it would be your best move. Need more context.

                1. Espanyolie
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Ok, fair enough. My other keeper is Areola. Don’t fancy martinez as I already have a Villa defender and not keen on a double up. I guess I formulated my question wrongly. I’m willing to punt on Forster for the double if it’s pretty much sure he has bypassed McCarthy, could also really used the funds. But has he?

            • KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Worth a hit?
              Cancelo, Salah > Tierney/Rudiger, KDB

              Currently have Stones, Cancelo and Gundo so need to move one on if I want to get KDB in

              1. Bleh
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Not for me

              2. Bubbles1985
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Yes with Rudiger

              3. Espanyolie
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Bringing KDB makes sense. I would expect him to play both and Gundo too after his rest. It’s Pep though... I’d move either Cancelo or Stones I guess. Both will probably play 1 out of the 2 games..

              4. pingissimus
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                I’d lose Stones before Cancelo - especially if you’re looking for instant gratification. But he’s now only semi-nailed you’d say.

            • Max City
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Martinez
              Dias Cancelo (c) Cresswell Dallas
              Salah Son Gundo Raphinha Trossard
              Kane

              Sub:
              Areola Watkins Bamford Tarkowski

              gtg?

            • Rupert The Horse
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Thank God for cricket after that terrible game week. Absolutely love it.

              1. Vertigo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Never understood why it isn't more popular.

                Favourite game at school.

                1. Rupert The Horse
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Some consider it slow.

            • Bubbles1985
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Cancelo captain this week...

              Madness or genius

              1. Soto Ayam
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 18 days ago

                It's a thin line between either. But I'd go madness

              2. Hotdogs for Tea
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                genius if it works, madness if it fails

              3. Rupert The Horse
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Why him?

            • jb1985
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Pulled the trigger to WC, 1st draft. also gives me 9 for DGW. 0.2M left itb. any other places to upgrade, was thinking of going without Gundo so can bring Cancelo in defence.

              A) Cresswell, Gundo, Burn, Sanchez - 0.2M itb
              B) Cancelo, Raphinha, Coufal, Button - 0.3M itb

              Martinez,
              Dias, Rudiger, Cresswell,
              KDB(c), Salah, Gundo, Son, Lingard,
              Antonio, Kane

              Sanchez, Watkins, Dallas, Burn

              1. TheBiffas
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  thoughts behind wc now? do u have fh?

              2. Mr. O'Connell
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Wonder how many more weeks of "Grealish not quite ready to feature yet" there will be from DS press conferences?

                1. fr3d
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Smith is a fraud, Grealish back for Spurs is my guess

                2. Flynny
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  I don't trust him

                3. Mr. O'Connell
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Back running on an anti gravity treadmill apparently. Do they have anti gravity football pitches? I need him to play.

              3. Flynny
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Morning all....200k. Losing patience. Transfers to 29 and wildcard in 31. What is best option here please?

                A......Barnes to lingard (bench dcl at chelsea)

                B....Bruno to son (leave Barnes to languish)

                Thanks

                Martinez
                Cancelo dias pereira (coufal dallas)
                Salah Bruno gundog raphinha (Barnes)
                Kane dcl watkins

                1. Tshelby
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  A

                2. G00LI0
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  This is the big decision. In exactly the same dilemma.

                  Brunos form against top 6 has been so poor I am considering doing the Son transfer now. Then again looking at that Barnes red is miserable too!

                3. Bucket Man
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  With WC I’d be tempted by A. I’m keeping Bruno as I don’t have WC.

                  1. Flynny
                    • 6 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    I do have wildcard to play. I asse you mean you'd be tempted to sell him Bruno if you had wildcard?

              4. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Will almost certainly get Tierney on FH in GW29, but with those fixtures and EL on top of his injury-proneness, I don't think he's worth considering right now for more than 30 seconds. I may be jaded from a horrendous experience with Arsenal defenders all season, including Tiernier, through injuries, corona and suspensions. You could bench him for the poor fixtures since he's not at a premium price, but then you have to hope he turns up in GW29 after 5 Arsenal games have been played (incl EL) in a game he may well be rested. Unnecessary risk imo.

              5. Bucket Man
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Can’t decide on Saka or Lingard for Barnes. Planning to save FH for GW33. Have TC and no WC left

                2FT 0.9ITB

                Martinez
                Cancelo, Dias, Dallas
                Salah, Fernandes, Gundogan, Barnes*
                Kane, Bamford, Watkins
                Areola, Rapha, Konsa, Shaw

                1. golfboy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  I went for Lingard, form team and form player

                  1. Bucket Man
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Edging that way. Should be able to cover next week and can save the other transfer for possible DGW. Would go Saka but possible rotation in GW29 which is when most needed a worry. Thanks

              6. Bezdon
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Hey all. Bit of help...

                Martinez
                Cancelo, Digne, Dias
                Bruno, Salah, Gundo, Raphinha, Barnes
                Bamford, Kane

                Bench: Sanchez, DCL, White, Ayling

                Thinking of a -8
                Salah > KDB
                Barnes > Son
                Cancelo > Lascelles (playing fodder) for budget

                Or no hot and just do Salah > Son...shift Barnes later

                Thanks!

                1. Bucket Man
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Would save and play DCL if you want to shift Barnes later

                  1. Bezdon
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Thanks mate. After being disappointed by DCL in the double he’s bound to score at Chelsea haha

              7. Zlatan F.C
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  When is the DGW for Villa?

                  1. mcsteely
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    We don't know yet. Possibly 28. Could hear today or on Monday

                • Pukki Blinders
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Triple Spurs attack too much? Only for two weeks from gw29 to 30...

                  1. Deulofail
                    • 5 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    You're allowed up to 3 players per team

                    1. Pukki Blinders
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      Oh thanks, thought it was 1 max per team

                  2. Vertigo
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Tempted myself.

                  3. mcsteely
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    I wouldn't. Last night their strongest attack only scored one v Fulham.

                    Bale's minutes not certain.

                    Double is enough

                    1. Pukki Blinders
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      The lack of options for gw29 is a real annoyance ... may just get Traore of Villa instead of Bale then

                • CarsonYeung
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  How slow do you think Klopp will take things with Jota? On paper he's the perfect Barnes replacement, Liverpool's front 3 need a kick up the backside and Jota has shown he can come in and show them all up.

                  1. Pukki Blinders
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Wouldnt rush to bring him in. Rather be a week late than early with Jota

                • Steiger
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Need some advice guys please.

                  Was just gonna do Fernandes > Son for free but with no FH for 29 I'm seriously considering doing Barnes/DCL/Pope > Son/Antonio/Sanchez for a -8.

                  By doing this I get to keep Bruno and his value. I was going to take a -4 hit anyway for GW29.

                  Should I pull the trigger for a -8 with this in mind..?

                  Rest of team.

                  Mendy
                  Cancelo/Stones/Targett
                  Salah/Bruno/Gundo/Raphinha
                  Kane/DCL/Watkins

                  Pope/Dallas/Lowton/Barnes

                  TIA

                • mcsteely
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Only got two City players and would like another one for this week:

                  A: Salah to KDB
                  B: Rudiger & Barnes to Dias and Soucek (-4)
                  C: Digne to Dias

                  1. aapoman
                    • 7 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Keep Digne. Everton might get dgw in 28. I did A for gw26 so I'd suggest it.

                  2. Deulofail
                    • 5 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    That's a tough one. I don't think any of them are quite good enough to pull the trigger tbh. Maybe C and hope Everton don't have a double the following GW, otherwise A. B would probably be the best if you're sure Dias is nailed for both games.

                • aapoman
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Barnes -> Mount?

                • Khalico
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Start:
                  Dallas (whu) or Targett (wolves)?

                  1. Vertigo
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    I'm starting Konsa over Dallas, fwiw.