942
Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships and monthly subscriptions are now available.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jai1212
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    A. Lingard or Raphinha?
    B. If I have 9 starters, does it make sense to take a hit for 10?
    C. If yes, then do I take out DCL or Stones? (Antonio / Tierney)

    1. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Raphina
      Depend of the move but a hit for a nonplaying player costs you -2

      1. linkafu
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        C Maybe DCL for Anto

    2. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Raph
      Depends who you are taking a hit to get, but 9 is enough I think

  2. chelseabrad
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Gundogan > Raphinha/Lingard for a -4? Currently only 9 starters including Bamford...

    1. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      yeah, go Raphina I would say, as Leeds look good for GW30 too.

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Can work

    3. fpork
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I have the same dilemma. Leaning towards yes since both Raphinha and Lingard have good fixutres in 30.

    4. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Nope

  3. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Which one to bring in (for the next two weeks)?

    a) Bale
    b) Trossard
    c) Odegaard

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      AB

  4. Nay08
    6 months, 9 days ago

    bottomed
    Please help me with a better combination for gw29 and gw30? because I probably will WC on 31

    A) 2 Defender, from Dallas, Dawson, Targett, Dunk
    B) 1 Midfielder, from Lingard, Trossard, Bale, Lookman

    it can be any other options, the options above are just my thinking.
    have 2 FT, but I don't mind taking the -4.

    Team Right now
    Martinez/Button
    Creswell/Cancelo/Dias/Pereira/Mitchell
    Salah/Son/Gundogan/Raphinha/B.Traore
    Kane/DCL/Bamford

    cheers

  5. Sho-kun
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    On FH. GTG?

    Sanchez
    Dunk/Tierney/Dallas
    Auba/Bale/Raph/Gross/Jlingz
    Bam/Kane

    If Bam out then either Antonio or Watkins

    1. Sho-kun
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Bench

      Martinez/Watkins/Aina/Coufal

  6. linkafu
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    A Antonio + Bale
    B Antonio + Lingard

    1. Sho-kun
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      A

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Why not ask Bale or Lingard? Lingard for me

      1. linkafu
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        Just because it's a double on West Ham

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 9 days ago

          Surely just look at each position in isolation rather than a double-up

    3. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I really can't decide on Lingard vs Bale, Lingard nailed but Bale probably more explosive, albeit only gets 60-70 minutes. Also, will Bale make it through the Internationals unscathed?

  7. Tonyawesome69
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Holding and Salah to Dallas and Lingard (-4) leaves me with the team below.

    GTG?

    WC31 FH33
    1FT 0itb
    Martinez
    Cresswell Dallas
    Raphinha Son Bale Lingard
    Kane Bamford
    (Fabri Stones Cancelo Digne Gundo DCL)

  8. JBG
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Areola or Martinez?

    I'm on Areola atm.

    1. Bavarian
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      me too

    2. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Aerola. No CS for both but Areola will face more shots imo

  9. linkafu
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Why no one looks at Maupay? He faces Newcastle at home and scored twice in the reverse fixture

    1. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      plenty of well owned striker options already in play - Kane, Bamford, Watkins, Antonio

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      No Goal scored since gw19 and just 1 assist.

  10. OldSchool
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Son confirmed out yet?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Won't until they name the team line-up before the match.

  11. Hryszko
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    So, people think these moves are worth it? got 2FT so this would be for a -4.

    Salah > Trossard
    Gundo > Odegaard
    Dier/Dias > Dunk

    1. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I'm keeping hold of Salah, Pool have a great run in. Issue is being stuck with 2 Brighton after this week, who you are unlikely going to want to play for a while.

  12. antis0cial
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    A) Lowton Sterling to Dallas Lingard
    B) Gundo Sterling to Lingard Bale
    C) Lowton Sterling to Dallas Bale

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      B

    2. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Don't know your team but we have the same kind of problems...

      1. antis0cial
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        Not much of a team this week!

        Areola
        Veltman Coufal
        Raph
        Kane Antonio

        Meslier Digne Dias Bruno Salah Sterling Gundo Brewster

  13. Help Me!
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    For coming 2 weeks...
    Is it worth a hit to get Lookman/Trossard/Groß for Gündogan?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Wouldn't get any of those personally.

  14. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Free Hit this week. Thoughts?

    Sanchez (Aerola)
    Creswell, Dunk, Aina, (Targett, Tierney)
    Bale, Auba, Raphinha, Lingard, (Lookman)
    Kane, Lacazette, Antonio

    Should i be looking at bamford?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Nice.

      I fancy Fulham home to Leeds but it could explode either way.

  15. youzef
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Sanchez
    Burn Strujik Dallas Konsa
    Raphinha Lingard
    Kane(C) Watkins

    Good to go (no points hit) and use ft to get in Lingard and Dallas.
    Any players worth taking a hit for in the mid or fwd role?

  16. HMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    stones to dallas
    salah to auba
    gundo to lingard

    is this worth -4
    if not what are the priority moves? team is linked
    basically moves for the next 2gw as i wc in 31

    1. Prison Mike
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Not sure on Auba

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 6 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        If Aubameyang is dropped again does Lacazette step up?

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I'd priorities Lingard there.

  17. Prison Mike
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Dunk or Veltman?

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Dunk

  18. markus808
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Kane or Lingard captain? What do the stats say?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Stats say never look past Kane.

  19. tissae
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Son + Gundo -> Bale + Lingrad for free? Yey or nay?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Yay

    2. Zen Arcade
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I think Rotor Lingrad were the team who knocked Spurs out of Europe.

    3. Help Me!
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I would do it for -8

  20. AC/DC AFC
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    How would you improve this squad?

    Areloa
    Cresswell, Dunk, Lascelles
    Lingard, Auba., Bale, Lallana
    Antonio, Lacazette, Kane.

    Sanchez. Moura, Dallas, Aina.

    Appreciate any tips to improve my free hit.

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      BB or FH?

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 6 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        FH

    2. antis0cial
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I would start Dallas over Lascelles. Don't like the Lallana punt, rest looks good.

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • 6 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        Thinking that Welbeck may be a good punt too.

  21. waltzingmatildas
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Think I'm just going to do Stones to Dunk which gives me:
    Martinez
    Coufal Dunk Dallas
    Son Raphinha
    Kane Antonio Bamford

    Would you do Salah to Lingard for a hit?

    1. sirmorbach
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Like it, similar situation myself. Think I won't take the hit though.

  22. sirmorbach
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Martínez / Forster
    Dias / Stones / Cresswell / Dunk /  Dallas
    Salah / Bruno / Gündogan / Raphinha / Soucek
    Kane / Antonio / Watkins

    Any hit needed/worth it here, friends? WC available

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Hmm, yeah similar. Guess it depends on how aggressive you want to go.

  23. HD7
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    2FT

    Mates, which two players would you add to this bunch for GW29 ...

    Martinez, Regulion, Son*, Kane, Bamford* + Bissouma, Strujik

    I think to get Lingard and one of Auba/Laca/Rafinha/Dallas/Dunk/
    Trossard?

  24. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Hi all, I've been avoiding FPL for a while due to dismal results. I've seen a lot of people advising against free hit this week, is there going to be another big double soon?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Mainly because most can get a decent number of players without using the FH.

      1. Hybrid.power
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        Fair enough

    2. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      No they're done

      1. Stupendous
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        One or two teams have doubles to go i mean

  25. Netters2018
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Bale or Laca on a FH?

  26. fpork
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    DCL->Kane for a FT?

    1. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Definitely

  27. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    GTG?

    Sanchez (Aerola)
    Creswell, Dunk, Aina, (Targett, Tierney)
    Bale, Auba, Lookman, Lingard, (Raphinha)
    Kane, Lacazette, Antonio

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Nice

    2. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      You could have more points on your bench than in your 11

      1. damiang2233
        • 11 Years
        6 months, 9 days ago

        Who you think I should bench?

  28. Stupendous
    • 9 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Son to Bale for a hit?

    Would likely mean 11 definite starters (well, 10, Auba).

    1. Super Saints
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I'm doing it, not convinced Son will be back for Newcastle either.

    2. TimoTime
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      Wondering the same with Salah to give me 9

      Honestly 10 sounds like enough although I see you may be nervous about Auba (however I am sure they will have been working hard to fix whatever issue there was there).

      As it stands it looks like Son is still out... however I would wait until the very last minute to do the switch to see if any news comes, otherwise it could be a good shout

  29. TimoTime
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    Salah > Bale for a -4?

    Would mean I can field 9 (if Bamford plays..)

    1. Prison Mike
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I’d say yes

  30. Pops15
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 9 days ago

    I have 9+ Son this week without a hit. Already used my free transfer on Dunk. I'm contemplating bringing in Lingard or Auba for a hit. Is it worth the move or just stick with what I got?

    Cheers!

    1. Super Saints
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 9 days ago

      I would say so, i'd go for Lindgard