Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 30

FPL is back after its international hiatus with the little controversy of another Double Gameweek announcement – Tottenham Hotspur will play twice in Gameweek 32.

As well as covering the usual captain dilemmas and some tasty one-week punts, the Guide to Gameweek 30 will look at how this affects our plans: what should we do with Gareth Bale (£9.6m) and could a “popular pasta dish” be on the menu?

We have a Saturday deadline this week and you have until 11:00 BST deadline to make any last-minute changes to your side. 

Effective Kane

Harry Kane (£11.6m) is set to be the popular armband pick against relegation-battling Newcastle United. 

Kane created four chances, had four big chances, [and] get this – shots inside the box: eight, shots on target: six – these are prime Kane stats.

– Joe, Captaincy Video

His impressive form over the last four matches led Joe to describe the England captain as the sensible choice. But is he the best choice?

Son Heung-min (£9.4m) looks set to recover from a bout of “international-itis” and could exploit a known weakness in Newcastle’s right flank. Joe and Pro Pundit Tom Freeman both highlighted the opportunity for the South Korean.

Tom noted that a switch to a back four at the end of January has seen the Magpies concede more chances down their right than any other team.

A vulnerability that fits neatly with Son’s shot heatmap this season. 

Above: Son Heung-min’s 2020/21 shot heatmap

And could adventurous left-back Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) be another Spurs player to benefit from this area of susceptibility?

Penne for your thoughts

Speaking on the Scoutcast, Chris (aka el Fozzie) was not particularly impressed, pronouncing Reguilón’s name like a “popular pasta dish” (well it was dinner time), but Spurs aficionado Sam pointed to some encouraging stats for the former Real Madrid defender:

Reguilón has registered 17 attempts on goal so far this season … he is also top for successful crosses from open play among Mourinho’s squad.

– Sam

While the Spaniard might be a step too Farfalle for some, not so for Ted, who added Reguilón to his plate of Spurs players ahead of Gameweek 29. 

However, the graphic-creating manager found himself umming and ahhing about another of his new recruits, Gareth Bale.

Bale out

Following a no-show in Gameweek 29, the Welshman’s subsequent comments weren’t great news for owners and Spurs fans alike. Season ticket-holder Sam felt that “they don’t hint at a player who is here for the benefit of the club and its supporters.” 

Concerns over his game time make Bale a “wait and see” for high-flying Pro Pundit Andy. While Sam summarised the impact that Blank Gameweek 33 could have Mourinho’s team selection in her latest article:

Spurs will have both eyes firmly on the League Cup final against Man City, as it is now their only opportunity to bring silverware back to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. This could also have a big impact on the teams that Spurs set out in Double Gameweek 32, as the Southampton match falls just days before the trip to Wembley.

– Sam

For Andy, the other issue with the blank in Gameweek 33 is that managers could potentially have a lot of money sitting on their bench in the form of Kane, Son and any Manchester City players. 

I would argue that there’s a case to just stick with a couple of Spurs players for the double.

– Andy

But with Spurs facing Sheffield United and Leeds United after the blank, benching our Lilywhites and selling Man City players could be the better ploy.

Slam Dunk

Indeed, Portuguese FPL machine, no not Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) but Hall of Fame No 1, Fábio Borges, sold Cancelo (£6.1m) for a hit ahead of Gameweek 29.

When revealing his analytical decision-making process, the former poker professional explained how he set aside bias and gut feeling as he methodically worked out if Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) was worth buying for a minus four.

A six-point return would suggest that he was.

But even if [Dunk] blanked”, reasoned Fábio, “I would be happy with my decision of taking a hit, knowing that if I keep making transfers with a positive expected value in the future, it will work out more times than not.”

Echoing words from his interview last year:

Just because someone blanked twice in a row, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is suddenly a bad pick and the same applies to poker – just because you lost one hand, it doesn’t mean that you played it poorly.

I think that being able to distance myself from the short-term results is one of my biggest strengths in FPL and poker played a huge part in that.

– Fábio Borges

Lateriser, when discussing identity in Fantasy Premier League, endorsed Fábio’s approach:

I have generally found the good managers are the ones that are not affected by the results but focus on the process. Temperament is an incredibly underrated thing in FPL.

– Lateriser

Another manager who has displayed an admirable temperament this season is Fábio’s closest rival at the top of our elite ranking system, Tom Stephenson.

Late Riser

As Greyhead noted when exploding the myth that a good start is crucial, the Hall of Fame No 2 was at the three million mark in Gameweek 3 but has risen to 4,261 – on track for a fifth top six thousand finish in six years.

Tom was Joe’s latest Meet the Manager guest during the IB and, like Fábio, plans to play his Wildcard in Gameweek 31. (Note that the interview was recorded before the Double Gameweek 32 announcement, so Tom included just Kane from Spurs.)

Aside from a good temperament, a further similarity Tom shares with Fábio is placing importance on ‘expected minutes’. For this reason he was reluctant to add Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) to his Wildcard squad:

I’m a little bit resentful about having to pay [nearly] 12 million and not know whether a player who I’d probably captain as well … is going to start.

– Tom Stephenson

The possible exception to this rule are one-week punts.

For those planning to play their Wildcard in Gameweek 31, Gameweek 30 presents just such an opportunity, with Tom among those considering a potentially rewarding move for Marcos Alonso (£5.7m).

The Spaniard, who was rested over the IB, is Tom Freeman’s top differential for the upcoming round of fixtures.

…When used correctly as a wing-back he has real quality, something Tuchel has recognised. Since Gameweek 21, when Alonso made a return to Chelsea’s starting XI in a 3-4-3 system, he has taken 13 shots. No defender can match that total during that period, despite limited minutes.

– Tom Freeman

But as Chelsea embark on a lovely run, bringing in at least one of Edouard Mendy (£5.2m), César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) or Antonio Rüdiger (£4.7m) is more of a priority for those thinking long-term.

And while the two Toms and Sam are plotting moves for their first Blues defender, Andy is considering a double-up. With Rüdiger already part of his XV man squad, the popular Pro Pundit is looking to add Mendy in goal. Two could be the magic number:

I’d provide a word of caution on the triple-up, though. While it looks good for the next few weeks, and I’m sure it’s something that Gameweek 31 Wildcarders will consider, you also need to think ahead about how to get out of it when the fixtures turn in Gameweek 35.

– Andy

In addition to Alonso, who Jan considers Chelsea’s best captain option in Gameweek 30, Joe threw Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s (£7.6m) name into the hat for one-week punts. The Everton forward has scored the most headed goals this season, while Crystal Palace have conceded the most headed chances.

Playing with FPL Fire

Jan went against the grain in the latest edition of Captain Sensible. The double-points maestro did acknowledge, however, that Kane is a reliable pick:

While this might not be a truly high-scoring and convincing win by Mourinho’s men given Newcastle’s defence-first approach, it is difficult to suggest Kane is unlikely to get an attacking return.

– Jan

But he feels that Leeds United have a better opportunity.

Over the last six matches, no team has conceded more shots on target than Sheffield United.

– Jan

Raphinha (£5.7m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) are therefore Jan’s first and second choices for the armband:

It is Leeds midfielder Raphinha who emerges as my top captaincy pick for Gameweek 30. The tricky winger tops the creativity charts for midfielders and is a constant goal threat too.

– Jan

An opinion backed up by Ted on the Scoutcast, who confessed he would probably captain Raphinha if he had the guts.

But bravery might not be the only factor at play when deciding who to trust with the armband – effective ownership (EO) could play a part too.

There is no doubt in order to make serious ground, you need to bet against the template.

– Zophar

Zophar succinctly encapsulated the predicament facing many managers. 

And there could be real rewards for being different and going against the crowd. When charting the finer points of EO, Az cited a thread by FPL Swede, who revealed that only five times in 29 Gameweeks had the most captained option been the highest-scoring player among the main runners and riders for the armband.

But knowing when to stick and when to twist is undoubtedly the key.

To illustrate his point, Az used two examples of his FPL Black Box co-host, Mark, paying attention to EO. The first was owning Timo Werner (£9.2m) in Gameweek 1, when Mark was protecting himself against the sizable ownership and unknown quantity the German presented. 

The other was when he captained Raphinha over Bamford in Gameweek 25 and exploited the Brazilian’s status as a differential against Bamford’s big EO.

Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water

But don’t sell good assets just for the sake of differentiating, cautioned Zophar, “calculated risks are the key to ‘upside chasing’”. 

The seven-time top eight thousand finisher looked ahead to the fixture swing in Gameweek 31, identifying the teams and players to target.

As former FPL winner Simon March counselled, fixtures, and their difficulty, are likely to have a significant influence on how players perform in the future. They can help us avoid the feeling that our new transfer has waited for us to fully buy into them before suddenly becoming useless.

So it was perhaps slightly surprising to find that Leeds pair Raphinha and Bamford were both included in Zophar’s selection, despite facing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Man United before Gameweek 34. 

But Tom Stephenson agreed, including Raphinha in his Wildcard draft. Planning ahead, Tom noted that Leeds finish the season very well. 

Also featuring in Zophar’s shortlist were Liverpool trio Mohamed Salah (£12.4m), Diogo Jota (£6.7m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m). The FPL Wire co-host reasoned that the return of Fabinho (£5.4m) to midfield boosts the prospects for the attacking full-back.

And Wolves offered a few names for consideration.

All four of Zophar, Neale, Andy, and Tom Freeman picked out Conor Coady (£4.8m).

No defender has been afforded more big chances (three) than the Liverpool Academy product over the last six matches. And the return of Willy Boly (£5.4m) could help remedy Wolves’ vulnerability in the air.

During his in-depth look at Nuno Espírito Santo’s team, Neale highlighted that “goalscoring remains an ongoing issue: seven goals in their last 10 top-flight matches is this shot-shy season in microcosm.

But Pedro Neto (£5.7m) presents the best attacking option for those tempted:

The Portuguese winger is top or joint-top among his teammates for the following metrics: shots on goal, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances, penalty box touches, successful crosses, chances created and big chances created.

– Neale

Neto is included in Tom’s Gameweek 31 Wildcard draft.

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

Neale reviewed the latest results in the FFS Open Cup and Members Cup.

There will be a new name on both trophies this season as the two remaining former winners, Lokomotiv and Pep Pig, were eliminated in Gameweek 29.

While the David vs Goliath clash of the lowest-ranked manager against the highest, came down to ‘rank difference’ as 415th-placed The Fighting Cock benefited from his lofty perch to overcome Jonathan Ojao following a 45-all tie.

The battling rooster takes on stonerrocks in round five of the Open Cup.

There are six rounds to go in both cups and the finals are set to take place in Gameweek 35.

Elsewhere, RedLightning brought us his usual round-up of the latest Community mini-leagues and competitions.

Phil Olorenshaw is enjoying an excellent campaign, leading four of our featured mini-leagues, while in Head-to-Head League 1 last season’s sixth-placed finisher Aleksander Våge Nilsen has a narrow three-points advantage over Ville Tuominen

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 30 can be found below. 

The scores and tables are now updating every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

May your arrows be green!

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99. A FREE trial is now available during December.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.”

1,781 Comments Post a Comment
  1. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Order right here (team and bench)?

    Martinez
    Alonso Reguilon Dallas
    Bruno (c) Son Gundogan Raphinha
    Kane (vc) Bamford Watkins

    Forster Trossard Cancelo Coufal

    Thanks!

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      G2G

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Thanks!

  2. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Sell DCL or Antonio for Kane? Thx

    1. King Kun Ta
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Antonio

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Agree

    2. KAALI_DAAL
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Keep

        1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Keep who? Don't have Spurs

    3. bruuuno
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Start Bale or Coufal?

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Bale

    4. Lignja
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Would you BB this team

      Martinez
      Stones, Konsa, Rudiger
      Salah, Son, Gundogan, Bruno
      Kane, Antonio, Bamford

      Mendy, Saka, Stujik, Weltman

      Have bb and wc left

      1. Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Probably not. I'd play Mendy ahead of Martinez.

    5. Weeb Kakashi
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      BBing for the week.

      Areola
      Cresswell AWB Dallas
      Salah Auba Lookman Raphinha
      Kane(C) Bam Antonio

      Forster Cancelo Toby Mount..

      Cancelo Toby> Alonso Reece(-4)??

    6. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      repost - G2G?

      Martinez
      Stones, Struijk, Shaw
      Salah, Son, Bruno, Raph
      Bamford, Kane, DCL

      Sanchez, Gundo, Konsa, Dunk

      0FT, 1.2ITB

      Any changes needed, Bench order correct?

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        G2g!

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Cheers lad - GL

          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Nice one, you too!

    7. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      chances of alonso starting today?

      worth bringing him for -4? Y/N

      1. KAALI_DAAL
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Not for -4

          1. the dom 1
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            agreed

      2. DropkickMurphys
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Start

          Meslier v SHU (h)
          Martinez v AVL (h)

          ?

        • HD7
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          If you have both,
          Bruno or Kane as C and why?

          1. SerieD
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Kane. Better play(?)

            1. HD7
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              better play?

        • Nightf0x
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          which?
          .
          a) forster play, roll ft, WC gw32
          b) pickford to 4.8 gk, WC gw31
          c) pickford stones -4 to mendy 4.7 def., WC gw31

        • CAP
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          G2g? 1FT and BB activated?

          Martinez
          Cresswell, Rudi, Dias, Shaw
          Gundo, Mount, Salah, Bruno
          Kane, Watkins

          Sanchez, Dallas, Raph, Bamford

          1. the dom 1
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            benching all Leeds?

            1. sunzip14
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              BB

            2. the dom 1
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              sorry didnt see the BB activated lol. G2G

          2. sunzip14
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            You tell us if it's activated or not 😉

            1. CAP
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              Haha didn't mean to end that sentence with a question mark 😀

              1. the dom 1
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 12 days ago

                haha all good lol

        • leo_messi
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Hi eveyone,would you BB this?

          Forster( BUR) Cresswell ( wol) Gundogan (lei) Targett (FUL)

        • 03farmboy
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Would you Bench boost this team? Could use -4 to get Dawson in for alioski

          Mendy, meslier
          Stones, rudiger, shaw, Digne, alioski
          Bruno, Gundogan, De Bruyne, jota, lingard
          Kane, Bamford, Calvert lewin

        • RAFA THE GAFFA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Yay or nay?... McCarthy >> Mendy & BB?

          Martinez
          Alonso. Digne. Dallas
          Bruno. Son. Lingard. Raphina(v)
          Kane(C). DCL. Bamford
          (McCarthy. Dias. Soucek. Coufal)

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Sorry I meant to cancel this. Should say for a -4.

        • King Kun Ta
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          WC this GW, thoughts?

          Martinez Areola
          Shaw Azpi Tierney Coady ????
          Bruno Jota Son Mahrez Raph
          DCL Kane Bamford

          5.9 ITB

          Last defender???

          Ta lads!

        • Muscout
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          A) Maupay to Bamford
          B) Bale to Son
          C) Save

          Captain:
          1) Kane
          2) Bam
          3) Raph

        • Weeb Kakashi
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Alderweireld Cancelo> Alonso Reece(-4)??

          BBing for the week. WC intact.

          1. Weilong7
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            change 1 to azpi from alonso / reece?

        • RAFA THE GAFFA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Yay or nay?... McCarthy >> Mendy (-4) & BB?

          Martinez
          Alonso. Digne. Dallas
          Bruno. Son. Lingard. Raphina(v)
          Kane(C). DCL. Bamford
          (McCarthy. Dias. Soucek. Coufal)

        • HD7
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Have a free transfer.
          Is Bale to Son worth it? Or keep and do Strujik to Dallas/Shaw?

          (Stones first on bench)

          1. the dom 1
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            bale > Son imo

        • arkom
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Play one of these:

          A) Reguilōn (NEW a)
          B) Gündo (LEI a)
          C) Watkins (FUL h)

        • Ribus
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Salah -> Bruno?

        • CarelessGenius©
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Any reason at all to keep Salah, other than a very £££££ differential?

          1. Holmes
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            no reason

        • tabby98
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Somebody help me pls

          Martinez
          Cancelo, Azpi, Digne, Dallas
          Bruno, Son, Raphinha
          Kane, Bamford, Antonio

          Johnstone | Lingard, Stones, Gundo

          What is the right starting 11? I don’t have the BB chip :/

        • Original - Wolves Ay We
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Own only one player from Liverpool and Man City, and he's on the bench. 😀

        • Weilong7
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          bench 1 of the below:

          azpi coufal targett dias

          thanks

        • Bruno Commando
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Raphinha or Kane for captain?

        • Disturbed
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Which Chelsea defender to get in for the next couple of gws? Azpi?

          1. KAALI_DAAL
              1 month, 12 days ago

              Azpi

              1. Disturbed
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 12 days ago

                Cheers

            • Weilong7
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              azpi or mendy the safer ones

          2. G Banger
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Argh, cant decide to BB or not:

            Pope, Dunk, Stones, Trossard

            1. sunzip14
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              No

          3. Plagued by indecision
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Martinez
            Targett / Dallas / Shaw
            Bruno / Odegaard / Son / Raphinha
            Kane(c) / Bamford / Antonio

            Subs: Pope / Stones / Lookman / Dunk

            Bench Odegaard or Stones?

            1. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              I’d start Stones I think

            2. Calculated Risks
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              Bench stones

          4. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Only have 3 playing defenders, one of which is Cancelo.

            Is it worth Elmo to Rudiger for a hit and start over Lowton?
            Gives me 4 playing defenders then

            1. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 12 days ago

              Then get Lowton off the bench if Cancelo is rested/rotated