Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 30

FPL is back after its international hiatus with the little controversy of another Double Gameweek announcement – Tottenham Hotspur will play twice in Gameweek 32.

As well as covering the usual captain dilemmas and some tasty one-week punts, the Guide to Gameweek 30 will look at how this affects our plans: what should we do with Gareth Bale (£9.6m) and could a “popular pasta dish” be on the menu?

We have a Saturday deadline this week and you have until 11:00 BST deadline to make any last-minute changes to your side. 

Effective Kane

Harry Kane (£11.6m) is set to be the popular armband pick against relegation-battling Newcastle United. 

Kane created four chances, had four big chances, [and] get this – shots inside the box: eight, shots on target: six – these are prime Kane stats.

– Joe, Captaincy Video

His impressive form over the last four matches led Joe to describe the England captain as the sensible choice. But is he the best choice?

Son Heung-min (£9.4m) looks set to recover from a bout of “international-itis” and could exploit a known weakness in Newcastle’s right flank. Joe and Pro Pundit Tom Freeman both highlighted the opportunity for the South Korean.

Tom noted that a switch to a back four at the end of January has seen the Magpies concede more chances down their right than any other team.

A vulnerability that fits neatly with Son’s shot heatmap this season. 

Above: Son Heung-min’s 2020/21 shot heatmap

And could adventurous left-back Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) be another Spurs player to benefit from this area of susceptibility?

Penne for your thoughts

Speaking on the Scoutcast, Chris (aka el Fozzie) was not particularly impressed, pronouncing Reguilón’s name like a “popular pasta dish” (well it was dinner time), but Spurs aficionado Sam pointed to some encouraging stats for the former Real Madrid defender:

Reguilón has registered 17 attempts on goal so far this season … he is also top for successful crosses from open play among Mourinho’s squad.

– Sam

While the Spaniard might be a step too Farfalle for some, not so for Ted, who added Reguilón to his plate of Spurs players ahead of Gameweek 29. 

However, the graphic-creating manager found himself umming and ahhing about another of his new recruits, Gareth Bale.

Bale out

Following a no-show in Gameweek 29, the Welshman’s subsequent comments weren’t great news for owners and Spurs fans alike. Season ticket-holder Sam felt that “they don’t hint at a player who is here for the benefit of the club and its supporters.” 

Concerns over his game time make Bale a “wait and see” for high-flying Pro Pundit Andy. While Sam summarised the impact that Blank Gameweek 33 could have Mourinho’s team selection in her latest article:

Spurs will have both eyes firmly on the League Cup final against Man City, as it is now their only opportunity to bring silverware back to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. This could also have a big impact on the teams that Spurs set out in Double Gameweek 32, as the Southampton match falls just days before the trip to Wembley.

– Sam

For Andy, the other issue with the blank in Gameweek 33 is that managers could potentially have a lot of money sitting on their bench in the form of Kane, Son and any Manchester City players. 

I would argue that there’s a case to just stick with a couple of Spurs players for the double.

– Andy

But with Spurs facing Sheffield United and Leeds United after the blank, benching our Lilywhites and selling Man City players could be the better ploy.

Slam Dunk

Indeed, Portuguese FPL machine, no not Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) but Hall of Fame No 1, Fábio Borges, sold Cancelo (£6.1m) for a hit ahead of Gameweek 29.

When revealing his analytical decision-making process, the former poker professional explained how he set aside bias and gut feeling as he methodically worked out if Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) was worth buying for a minus four.

A six-point return would suggest that he was.

But even if [Dunk] blanked”, reasoned Fábio, “I would be happy with my decision of taking a hit, knowing that if I keep making transfers with a positive expected value in the future, it will work out more times than not.”

Echoing words from his interview last year:

Just because someone blanked twice in a row, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is suddenly a bad pick and the same applies to poker – just because you lost one hand, it doesn’t mean that you played it poorly.

I think that being able to distance myself from the short-term results is one of my biggest strengths in FPL and poker played a huge part in that.

– Fábio Borges

Lateriser, when discussing identity in Fantasy Premier League, endorsed Fábio’s approach:

I have generally found the good managers are the ones that are not affected by the results but focus on the process. Temperament is an incredibly underrated thing in FPL.

– Lateriser

Another manager who has displayed an admirable temperament this season is Fábio’s closest rival at the top of our elite ranking system, Tom Stephenson.

Late Riser

As Greyhead noted when exploding the myth that a good start is crucial, the Hall of Fame No 2 was at the three million mark in Gameweek 3 but has risen to 4,261 – on track for a fifth top six thousand finish in six years.

Tom was Joe’s latest Meet the Manager guest during the IB and, like Fábio, plans to play his Wildcard in Gameweek 31. (Note that the interview was recorded before the Double Gameweek 32 announcement, so Tom included just Kane from Spurs.)

Aside from a good temperament, a further similarity Tom shares with Fábio is placing importance on ‘expected minutes’. For this reason he was reluctant to add Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) to his Wildcard squad:

I’m a little bit resentful about having to pay [nearly] 12 million and not know whether a player who I’d probably captain as well … is going to start.

– Tom Stephenson

The possible exception to this rule are one-week punts.

For those planning to play their Wildcard in Gameweek 31, Gameweek 30 presents just such an opportunity, with Tom among those considering a potentially rewarding move for Marcos Alonso (£5.7m).

The Spaniard, who was rested over the IB, is Tom Freeman’s top differential for the upcoming round of fixtures.

…When used correctly as a wing-back he has real quality, something Tuchel has recognised. Since Gameweek 21, when Alonso made a return to Chelsea’s starting XI in a 3-4-3 system, he has taken 13 shots. No defender can match that total during that period, despite limited minutes.

– Tom Freeman

But as Chelsea embark on a lovely run, bringing in at least one of Edouard Mendy (£5.2m), César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) or Antonio Rüdiger (£4.7m) is more of a priority for those thinking long-term.

And while the two Toms and Sam are plotting moves for their first Blues defender, Andy is considering a double-up. With Rüdiger already part of his XV man squad, the popular Pro Pundit is looking to add Mendy in goal. Two could be the magic number:

I’d provide a word of caution on the triple-up, though. While it looks good for the next few weeks, and I’m sure it’s something that Gameweek 31 Wildcarders will consider, you also need to think ahead about how to get out of it when the fixtures turn in Gameweek 35.

– Andy

In addition to Alonso, who Jan considers Chelsea’s best captain option in Gameweek 30, Joe threw Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s (£7.6m) name into the hat for one-week punts. The Everton forward has scored the most headed goals this season, while Crystal Palace have conceded the most headed chances.

Playing with FPL Fire

Jan went against the grain in the latest edition of Captain Sensible. The double-points maestro did acknowledge, however, that Kane is a reliable pick:

While this might not be a truly high-scoring and convincing win by Mourinho’s men given Newcastle’s defence-first approach, it is difficult to suggest Kane is unlikely to get an attacking return.

– Jan

But he feels that Leeds United have a better opportunity.

Over the last six matches, no team has conceded more shots on target than Sheffield United.

– Jan

Raphinha (£5.7m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) are therefore Jan’s first and second choices for the armband:

It is Leeds midfielder Raphinha who emerges as my top captaincy pick for Gameweek 30. The tricky winger tops the creativity charts for midfielders and is a constant goal threat too.

– Jan

An opinion backed up by Ted on the Scoutcast, who confessed he would probably captain Raphinha if he had the guts.

But bravery might not be the only factor at play when deciding who to trust with the armband – effective ownership (EO) could play a part too.

There is no doubt in order to make serious ground, you need to bet against the template.

– Zophar

Zophar succinctly encapsulated the predicament facing many managers. 

And there could be real rewards for being different and going against the crowd. When charting the finer points of EO, Az cited a thread by FPL Swede, who revealed that only five times in 29 Gameweeks had the most captained option been the highest-scoring player among the main runners and riders for the armband.

But knowing when to stick and when to twist is undoubtedly the key.

To illustrate his point, Az used two examples of his FPL Black Box co-host, Mark, paying attention to EO. The first was owning Timo Werner (£9.2m) in Gameweek 1, when Mark was protecting himself against the sizable ownership and unknown quantity the German presented. 

The other was when he captained Raphinha over Bamford in Gameweek 25 and exploited the Brazilian’s status as a differential against Bamford’s big EO.

Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water

But don’t sell good assets just for the sake of differentiating, cautioned Zophar, “calculated risks are the key to ‘upside chasing’”. 

The seven-time top eight thousand finisher looked ahead to the fixture swing in Gameweek 31, identifying the teams and players to target.

As former FPL winner Simon March counselled, fixtures, and their difficulty, are likely to have a significant influence on how players perform in the future. They can help us avoid the feeling that our new transfer has waited for us to fully buy into them before suddenly becoming useless.

So it was perhaps slightly surprising to find that Leeds pair Raphinha and Bamford were both included in Zophar’s selection, despite facing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Man United before Gameweek 34. 

But Tom Stephenson agreed, including Raphinha in his Wildcard draft. Planning ahead, Tom noted that Leeds finish the season very well. 

Also featuring in Zophar’s shortlist were Liverpool trio Mohamed Salah (£12.4m), Diogo Jota (£6.7m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m). The FPL Wire co-host reasoned that the return of Fabinho (£5.4m) to midfield boosts the prospects for the attacking full-back.

And Wolves offered a few names for consideration.

All four of Zophar, Neale, Andy, and Tom Freeman picked out Conor Coady (£4.8m).

No defender has been afforded more big chances (three) than the Liverpool Academy product over the last six matches. And the return of Willy Boly (£5.4m) could help remedy Wolves’ vulnerability in the air.

During his in-depth look at Nuno Espírito Santo’s team, Neale highlighted that “goalscoring remains an ongoing issue: seven goals in their last 10 top-flight matches is this shot-shy season in microcosm.

But Pedro Neto (£5.7m) presents the best attacking option for those tempted:

The Portuguese winger is top or joint-top among his teammates for the following metrics: shots on goal, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances, penalty box touches, successful crosses, chances created and big chances created.

– Neale

Neto is included in Tom’s Gameweek 31 Wildcard draft.

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

Neale reviewed the latest results in the FFS Open Cup and Members Cup.

There will be a new name on both trophies this season as the two remaining former winners, Lokomotiv and Pep Pig, were eliminated in Gameweek 29.

While the David vs Goliath clash of the lowest-ranked manager against the highest, came down to ‘rank difference’ as 415th-placed The Fighting Cock benefited from his lofty perch to overcome Jonathan Ojao following a 45-all tie.

The battling rooster takes on stonerrocks in round five of the Open Cup.

There are six rounds to go in both cups and the finals are set to take place in Gameweek 35.

Elsewhere, RedLightning brought us his usual round-up of the latest Community mini-leagues and competitions.

Phil Olorenshaw is enjoying an excellent campaign, leading four of our featured mini-leagues, while in Head-to-Head League 1 last season’s sixth-placed finisher Aleksander Våge Nilsen has a narrow three-points advantage over Ville Tuominen

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 30 can be found below. 

The scores and tables are now updating every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

May your arrows be green!

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1,781 Comments Post a Comment
  1. AC Yew
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    Start double Man City defenders or 1of Konsa or Coufal?

    1. corderz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      I'd start Coufal

    2. Deulofail
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Depends which City defenders

      1. AC Yew
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Cancelo & Stones

    3. AC Yew
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Cancelo & Stones

  2. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    Best 1 week punt?

    A) Salah
    B) Mane
    C) Bruno
    D) Rodriguez

    1. Deulofail
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      D

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      None, if must C

      1. corderz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Keep Auba then?

  3. burkeyoa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    Can bring in one of Alonso or Bruno this week ahead of WC next week.

    A) Alonso
    B) Bruno

    1. waldo666
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      B

    2. Deulofail
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      A

  4. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    which ?

    a) forster play, roll ft, WC gw32
    b) pickford to 4.8 gk, WC gw31
    c) pickford stones -4 to mendy 4.7 def., WC gw31

  5. Deulofail
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 14 days ago

    Starting to get cold feet on Bruno captain, Cancelo first sub and Gundo second sub! Ahhhhhhh

    In fact, I'm starting to want to play my third sub, ESR, even if he's unlikely to feature.

    Ahhhhhhhh

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      HOOOOOOOOOOLD

      1. Deulofail
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        COOOOOOOOOOOOLD

  6. McPollolocco
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Who should i bench, will play with 3 defenders.

      a) Rüdiger
      b) Targett
      c) Digne
      d) Tierney
      e) Cancelo

      1. Deulofail
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Coin toss for D. If not E. Cancelo cameo is possible, but not very likely. Tierney more likely to cameo perhaps, which is a bad thing. But more importantly, has a worse fixture. Both played the same minutes over the international break, basically

    • De Gea is GOAT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Who to Cap? Most ML rivals will go Kane. Is it the week to go a bit different?

      A) Kane
      B) Bamford
      C) Raphinha

      1. HD7
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Do you have Bruno?

        1. De Gea is GOAT
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          I do.

    • Weeb Kakashi
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Alderweireld> Alonso (-4) worth it??

      WC Intact.

      1. HD7
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Alonso isnt a sure starter but its a risk with a big haul maybe

    • Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      A Keep Gundogan
      B Gundogan to Lingard -4?

      1. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        A

    • FPL flop
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 14 days ago

      People wondering if it's Chillwell or Alonso but it could be Emerson!

    • RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Points predictions for these?

      Mendy
      Soucek
      Coufal
      Dias

      1. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        6
        3
        6
        7

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Worth a -4 to bench boost it?

    • KAPTAIN KANE
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Only have 3 playing defenders, one of which is Cancelo.

      Elmo to Rudiger -4?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Good long term hit

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Cheers Rafa, just worried about a Cancelo no show and only 2 defenders in the XI.

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 14 days ago

            Do it. What you think of this mate? Or is it worth saving the BB? Got WC too.

            McCarthy >> Mendy (-4) & BB?

            Martinez
            Alonso. Digne. Dallas
            Bruno. Son. Lingard. Raphina(v)
            Kane(C). DCL. Bamford
            (McCarthy. Dias. Soucek. Coufal)

            1. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 14 days ago

              Save BB - think West Ham could struggle at Wolves and Soucek returns are so random

            2. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 14 days ago

              The XI looking great for this week though on paper!

              1. RAFA THE GAFFA
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 13 days ago

                Thanks boss! Kane(c) too? 🙂

                1. KAPTAIN KANE
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 13 days ago

                  Yes 🙂

    • Dirty Harry
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Quick vote (WC'ing GW31):

      1. Bale > Son
      2. Trossard > Son (bench Bale)

      1. Inter Me Gran
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        1

        1. Sid07
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          2

    • AzzaroMax99
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Bench:

      A) Bale
      B) Antonio

      1. Inter Me Gran
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        A

      2. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        B

        1. Sid07
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          A

    • Inter Me Gran
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Raphinha or Kane for cappo this week??

      1. AllGonePozzo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Raphinha

      2. AgentRed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Kane

    • HD7
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      A or B, mates?

      Martinez
      Cancelo Strujik* Reguilon
      Raphinha Bruno Lingard Bale*
      DCL Kane Bamford

      Fraser Stones Bissouma Mitchell

      A) Bale to Son
      B) Strujik to Dallas/Shaw

      1. Sid07
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        B

        1. HD7
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Dallas or Shaw?

    • Tmel
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Who scores more over the next two weeks?

      a) Son (new, MUN)
      b) Salah (ars, AVL)

      1. Sid07
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        A

      2. AgentRed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        A

    • Sid07
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      1) play gundo
      2) play coufal
      3) gundo to Raphina (-4)

    • AgentRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Dias to Azpi? Still have Stones

      1. Sid07
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        You have money for stones to azpi?

        1. AgentRed
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Sadly not

    • cruzex
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 14 days ago

      Kane or Bruno for captain?

      1. AgentRed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        I’ve gone Kane and Bruno VC

      2. AllGonePozzo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Kane of those

      3. waldo666
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Bruno

      4. Debauchy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Kane

    • McPollolocco
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Bench maddison or starting?

      • JollyGoodYellows
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Start 2:

        A) Dias
        B) Gundo
        C) Lingard
        D) Watkins

        1. Sid07
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          CD

      • tiger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Raphinha...this is your moment to convert all the potential to points....

        Go forth my captain and bring home the gold!

        1. Inter Me Gran
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Yes! This!

      • Dr. Jepsen
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Will Mount start?

      • Miniboss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Which one to bench?

        A) Lingard
        B) Gundogan

      • corderz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 14 days ago

        Aubameyang >

        A) Bruno
        B) Salah
        C) Mane
        D) Rodriguez (punt)

      • GCM0803
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Bench 3:
          Cresswell
          Cancelo
          Konsa
          Mount
          Lingard
          Gundogan
          Watkins

          1. Mufc202020
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 14 days ago

            Cres
            Gunda
            Then either can of ling

        • Mufc202020
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Ederson to Mendy worth the FT for the reason of the season?

        • Better luck next year
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Pick one to start?

          A) Antonio
          B) Gundo
          C) Dias
          D) Bale

        • Corgzzzz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 14 days ago

          Would you do Watkins > DCL for -4 for just one week..........??

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 14 days ago

            I like it mate. Not a fan of Watkins. What you think here...

            McCarthy >> Mendy (-4) & BB?

            Martinez
            Alonso. Digne. Dallas
            Bruno. Son. Lingard. Raphina(v)
            Kane(C). DCL. Bamford
            (McCarthy. Dias. Soucek. Coufal)

            1. Corgzzzz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 14 days ago

              Hi Mate, I really dont see WHU keeping a clean sheet. I wouldnt play BB as Dias got a tough game. did you get my message about possible DGW in 36/37

              1. RAFA THE GAFFA
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 14 days ago

                Just seen it. Thank you. Would all depend on the hammers as you say. If your not confident then I’ll hang fire. Thanks for the input! Who first sub then? Soucek? Coufal? Dias?

                1. Corgzzzz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 14 days ago

                  Soucek.