Line-up Lessons

Which Arsenal players are most likely to avoid rotation during season run-in?

Ahead of an expected rush of Wildcards in Gameweek 31, Anna Woodberry analyses which players stand the best chance of beating Mikel Arteta’s rotation policy at Arsenal.


Arsenal sit second of our Season Ticker over the next five Gameweeks when clubs are sorted by ease of fixture. Mikel Arteta’s side face the four bottom Premier League clubs over this period, with a tough home match against Everton sandwiched in the middle.

For Fantasy Premier League managers on their Wildcard, or those looking to maximise their transfer(s) this Gameweek, these fixtures could yield good returns.

That said, Arsenal’s form this season and their quarter-final matches against Slavia Prague must be considered when choosing which assets to go for. 

We have weighed up their credentials in this latest article by considering recent performances as well as investigating which players are the most likely to play consistent minutes in the Premier League between now and Gameweek 38.

Arsenal have not impressed as many would have expected during Arteta’s reign. The Gunners had a particularly poor start to the league and found themselves languishing in fifteenth place after eleven Premier League matches. However, Arteta has managed to pull them back up during the second half of the season, where they are now flittering between ninth and eleventh position.

Source: Wikipedia

This is in spite of a tough run of fixtures in their last ten games, which saw them play both Manchester clubs, Leicester City, Tottenham, West Ham and Liverpool. They picked up 12 points from a possible 30 from these matches: winning three, drawing three and losing four. 

Yet they only managed one clean sheet during this period (and have zero in their last six) while conceding 15 goals in total, six of which came in their last two matches against West Ham and Liverpool. 

On the flip side, though they only netted 14 goals during the same period, the team scored two or more goals in four of the ten games and are in the top five for goals scored over the past six matches. Given that their upcoming fixtures are against bottom-half clubs with poorer defensive records, this is something FPL managers will be hoping Arsenal could replicate over the next few Gameweeks.

EUROPEAN DISTRACTION

Who has the best and worst upcoming FPL fixtures? 14

The biggest headache for FPL managers, however, will be factoring in Arsenal’s Europa League campaign. Their quarter-final first leg against Slavia Prague takes place on Thursday evening, three days before their Gameweek 31 match against Sheffield United. Meanwhile, the second leg is scheduled for the following week, in between Gameweek 31 and Gameweek 32 (Fulham). 

If they get through this quarter-final, the semi-final fixtures are pencilled to take place in and around their Gameweek 34 and 35 matches against Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion, meaning the Gunners are facing the prospect of nine games in 30 days. So, while Arsenal are playing the four bottom Premier League teams, this is happening in amongst their European campaign, raising concerns over how much Arteta might rotate his squad to cope with this demand.

This concern is increased when considering which competition the Spaniard might favour going into the final part of the season as the Europa League arguably represents the best chance for the club to make it into the Champions League next season.

The Gunners are ten points off fourth place with eight Premier League matches to go but are battling a host of rivals to get there. Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea are all above Arteta’s team, so the odds are stacked against them to win a European qualifying spot through domestic channels.

This could have ramifications for Arteta’s team selection in the Premier League over the next few Gameweeks. He utilised fringe players in the group stages of the Europa League, keeping his main stars – Kieran Tierney (£5.3m), Alexandre Lacazette (£8.2m) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.4m) – for the league. This may change now we are reaching the latter stages of the competition, especially if this is Arsenal’s best chance of playing in Europe next year. 

TIME FOR THE ‘BIG GUNS’

If we compare the Arsenal players’ minutes for the group-stage and knock-out matches of the Europa League this season, we can already see a shift towards the more experienced group. 14 players – Bernd Leno (£5.0m), Tierney, Hector Bellerin (£5.0m), Gabriel (£4.9m), David Luiz (£5.4m), Thomas Partey (£4.9m), Martin Odegaard (£6.0m), Dani Ceballos (£4.7m), Granit Xhaka (£5.2m), Emile Smith Rowe (£4.2m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m), Aubameyang, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) and Willian (£7.5m) – have all featured more in the knock-out stages than they did during the group matches.

This is also reflected when looking at the starting line-ups. Leno, Bellerin, David Luiz, Gabriel, Xhaka and Aubameyang have started all four knock-out games so far, with Tierney, Ceballos, Saka, Odegaard and Smith Rowe starting three. Therefore, we would expect Arteta to turn to these players again for the two legs against Slavia Prague. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PREMIER LEAGUE

The issue this poses for FPL managers is whether these players will feature in the Premier League games either side of those quarter-final matches. Though hard to predict, we can see which players started a high number of league games in and around the Round of 32 and Round of 16 matches against Benfica and Olympiacos in February and March. 

Leno, David Luiz, Tierney, Xhaka, Saka, Odegaard and Aubameyang were the only players to start four or more games in the league, suggesting they would be the best bets to play against Sheffield United and Fulham. In contrast, stalwarts Bellerin and Gabriel only started two games each, so might see their league minutes similarly restricted if they play on Thursday.

However, injuries could change this completely. David Luiz looks set to miss the next couple weeks after undergoing knee surgery, leaving Gabriel (£4.9m) to shoulder the principal centre-back burden. In his absence, Arteta could turn to either Rob Holding (£4.2m) and/or Pablo Marí (£4.4m) to partner Gabriel in the Europa League and Premier League games. Both are budget-value defenders who could easily fill the fourth or fifth spots in any FPL team.

In addition, Arsenal fear that Tierney could be ruled out for a similar period to Luiz after limping off in the first half against Liverpool in Gameweek 30. If true, this leaves Cedric Soares (£4.6m) and Saka as the Gunners’ left-back options since Sead Kolasinac went on loan to Schalke in January. With this uncertainty, it means Leno is probably the most reliable way into Arsenal’s defence.   

In terms of midfield and attack though, Odegaard and Aubameyang are the safest picks, but whether they represent the best value for money compared to other players in those price brackets remains to be seen. They could be good differential picks if they start though.

For FPL managers feeling a bit risky, Nicolas Pépé (£7.6m) and Eddie Nketiah (£5.4m) were frequently used in the group stages of the Europa League to give the more established players rest. Arteta could utilise the two again but in the league this time, especially if the tie against Slavia Prague is still close after the first leg.

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941 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Vazza
      29 days, 11 mins ago

      Extra option added

      Thoughts please gents

      A. Ayling >> Robbo (free)
      B. Veltman, Gundo >> TAA, Neto (4pt hit)
      C. Veltman, Watkins/Antonio >> TAA, Nacho (4pt hit)
      D. Stones, Ayling >> TAA, Saiss
      E. Something else

      Current team

      ——————Areola——————
      ———Veltman Dias Stones———
      —Bruno Salah Gundo Son Jota—
      ————-Antonio* Kane————-

      Bench: Forster, Watkins, Ayling, Struijk

      FH available for GW33

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 10 mins ago

        A for me

      2. Hits from the Bong
        • 2 Years
        29 days, 6 mins ago

        Think this team needs a bit more Lindgard

        1. Nice name 😆

          1. The Suspended One
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            Cypress Hill is the mad notes

            1. Hits from the Bong
              • 2 Years
              28 days, 23 hours ago

              Snootch to the nootch

      3. Probably A

      4. The Knights Template
        • 7 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Now with EEEEEEEE!

      5. Vazza
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Anyone else with thoughts on the above?

      6. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 2 mins ago

        Thoughts on the current WC draft? 1.9m ITB.

        Martinez (3.9)
        Azpi TAA Stones (Cresswell Johnson)
        Bruno Son Jota(c) JLingz Gundogan
        Kane Vardy (Vydra)

        1. Lav
          • 4 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          How do you feel about going without Salah? It is the one thing holding me back on my WC. With TAA + Jota over Salah + Jota I can make a great side.

          I like your side. Might as well get Forster for the 3.9. I think you should take a 1 week punt on someone and then shift to Son for 32. No need for him + Kane in 31.

        2. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          My thought is why is everyone WCing this week?

        3. Ibralicious
          • 6 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Vardy to ihenacho to fund Salah in? Like the creativity otherwise, just don’t know if Azpi and Creswell are worth the premium

          1. Hits from the Bong
            • 2 Years
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            Yeah, Vardy out and Salah in sounds good

        4. Hits from the Bong
          • 2 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          For me I’d “downgrade” Vardy and swap Stones to Dias/Shaw, you’ve got 4 out for 33. Martinez fixtures aren’t great either

        5. Hotdogs for Tea
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 19 hours ago

          just feel that losing Salah will open so much up for you and allow proper cover for rotation

      7. Ibralicious
        • 6 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Pick one of these defensive combinations on WC:

        A) Trent - Stones - Rudiger - Holding - Amartey
        B) Dias - Shaw - Coady - Rudiger - Phillips

        Cheers!

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          B easy

        2. FantasyHero
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          28 days, 21 hours ago

          a

      8. Gun gun
        • 4 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Will u sell trossard for jota this week? Nt sure if jota gonna start vs aston though

      9. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Think I'm going to save WC and just bring in Jota for Raph?

        Martinez Forster
        Stones Cancelo Azpi Coufal Veltman
        Bruno Son Gundo Lingard Raph
        Kane Bam Watkins

        1. waldo666
          • 10 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Could work out, I'm in two minds about using mine, sort of thinking if not now, when?

          1. Major League Shocker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            GW34 after you know what's going on with the likely DGW35.

            1. waldo666
              • 10 Years
              28 days, 23 hours ago

              Yeah, I suppose, just seems so late only utilising it for 4 matches.

      10. fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Sterling and mendy on WC? Worth a risk against leaky Leeds?

      11. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Jeez Liverpool haven't won at home since December (gw13)

      12. barton fc
        • 3 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Sanchez to leno for a hit? (for the rotation with martinez)

        1. waldo666
          • 10 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Don't like hits for keepers.

          1. barton fc
            • 3 Years
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            Me neither but when you look at how martinez and leno rotate till the end of the seaosn i can't n see how that hit doesn't pay off, don't rate the arsnal defence but the fixture i would play him are so easy

            could also do patricio instead

            1. waldo666
              • 10 Years
              28 days, 23 hours ago

              Can't say I have looked at the rotation but Martinez has pretty horrible fixtures right until the end. Maybe just roll with what you have this week and do something for free next?

              1. barton fc
                • 3 Years
                28 days, 23 hours ago

                Yeah think ill do that, would probably be for a hit next week to big sanchez has a decent enough fixture to postpone a week

      13. waldo666
        • 10 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        If not for the fixtures would everybody been rushing to get Salah back?

        Every time I ditch him he seems to punish me, hasn't really yet and feel it's a risk worth taking, thoughts?

        1. barton fc
          • 3 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Im in no rush, Watkins and gundo will be come a fodder striker and son next week, then Kevin will be come Salah for the blank

          1. waldo666
            • 10 Years
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            Sounds a decent plan.

        2. The Units
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Jota for me for now. If Salah gets some form he is only a couple of transfers away.

          1. waldo666
            • 10 Years
            28 days, 23 hours ago

            I think that might be the play, working on a WC and can do so much better without Salah.

      14. boroie
        • 2 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Okay so I’m chasing down a 60 point gap. Therefore I need to take risks. Opponent has Salah, Bruno, Digne, Lingard, Raphinha, Cancelo, Stones, Watkins, Martinez, Kane and Son. Don’t think I can avoid Kane and Son with DGW coming up but I want to try to avoid the rest. Given all of that, how does this look?

        Leno
        TAA(VC) Phillips Coady
        Sterling(C) Jota Son Neto
        Kane Vardy DCL

        Forster; Maddison, Holding, Targett

        1. Major League Shocker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Looks reasonable. Although I owned Targett early in the season and every time he got 6 points, Martinez would get 10. Consider steering clear of Villa altogether with someone like Rudiger instead.

        2. Alisson WondHaaland
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Yeah looks good. If I were you Id double up on the Chelsea defence which your opponent doesnt have. Also Sterling may play this week but I highly doubt he'll keep starting

      15. barton fc
        • 3 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Is caption Kevin worth the rotation risk? (don't own Salah vice would probably be either jota or lingard)

        1. Alisson WondHaaland
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          No

      16. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Help please.
        Got exact funds and Watkins might fall tonight

        A) Watkins+Raphinha -> Salah+Davis(random 4.2 attacker) -4p
        B) Save. Look what happens until friday and you might take a -8p with full info instead.

        Appreciated!

        1. The Units
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          I would just go Jota and see how Salah goes.

      17. Alisson WondHaaland
        • 5 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        On WC:

        A) Sanchez, Phillips, KDB -> Bruno in GW 33

        B) Mendy, TAA, Maddison

        1. Steiger
          • 2 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          B

      18. FPL Egregious
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        On wc currently:
        Leno/Foster
        Taa/Dias/Shaw/Rudiger/Holding
        Salah/Bruno/Jota/Lingard/Gundo
        Kane/Iheanacho/Vydra

        Any suggestions? Players im debating to change are Leno, Dias, Lingard, iheanacho and maybe Gundo. Thank you in advance!

      19. waldo666
        • 10 Years
        28 days, 23 hours ago

        Another quiet day for prices changes would be nice.

      20. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        On a WC would you take Rudiger over Azpi if it made it easier to get Salah in by BGW33

        1. waldo666
          • 10 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          I think I would, it's good to have flexibility.

          1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Can still get Salah fairly easily while having Azpi (Son out), just makes it easier.

            Could alternatively ditch Cresswell to a cheaper defender

        2. I Member
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          Yes. I'd go Rudiger regardless. Better value.

          1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            But only if he plays! Will he, like Azpi will?

        3. Alisson WondHaaland
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          Rudiger for sure. I can see why some people would go for Alonso with a strong bench to cover him when he misses games but I dont really see the benefit of paying extra for Azpi

          1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Azpi is nailed - Rudiger seems far from it?

            1. Alisson WondHaaland
              • 5 Years
              28 days, 22 hours ago

              I think Rudiger is still fairly nailed, just got a few rests because of his heavy game time in the league and during the IB.

              Id prefer Rudiger and spending extra on another defender

      21. I Member
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Thoughts on Mount as an option? Need some differentials on WC and Chelsea have good fixtures. I know he'll probably be rotated for a game but they're in a battle for top 4. Think he plays at least 3 out of the next 4. On pens if Jorginho isn't on the pitch.

        1. Alisson WondHaaland
          • 5 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          Solid pick, though I personally prefer Maddison at that price

          1. I Member
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Even if I have Vardy and Castagne?

            1. Alisson WondHaaland
              • 5 Years
              28 days, 22 hours ago

              Yeah think so. Prefer the fixtures + I think Maddison has higher potential for returns

      22. Disturbed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Best option for this team?

        a. raphina > jota
        b. coufal raphina > taa jota -4
        c. digne raphina > salah Phillips -4
        d. raphina antonio > salah vydra -4

        Martinez
        Azpi Digne stones
        Bruno son gundo lingard
        Kane bamford Antonio

        Forster raphina coufal Dallas

        1ft, 6m itb

      23. I Member
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Best keeper to own on WC? Feels like a good time to switch from Martinez.

        1. Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          I’m in a similar conundrum - WC obviously better time than any other, but at the same time Martinez is a saves machine and also has a DGW still....

          1. I Member
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Yeah I haven't removed Martinez from my team yet. Thinking Mendy could be good.

      24. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Just got Salah in. Afraid of the price drop on Watkins since I had exact funds.
        He needs to get into my team anyway when they have Leeds-Newcastle next.
        LFC needs to WIN every game.
        Also Sunday-Wednesday good rest imo.
        City players to risky to captain and without WC, not tempted when they have a blank on gmw 33. If I punt on Sterling(C) I need Salah the game after anyway.

        Thoughts?

      25. Gun gun
        • 4 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Capt kdb or too risky?
        Sell kdb for sterling?

      26. Ragabolly
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        28 days, 22 hours ago

        Risers: Jota (6.9)

        Fallers: Richarlison (7.9) Balbuena (4.1) Davis (3.8)

        1. Lav
          • 4 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          More time to think, brilliant. Cheers.

        2. waldo666
          • 10 Years
          28 days, 22 hours ago

          Cheers Ragabolly.

        3. Vazza
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Thanks mate. Are you going to make an appearance on FPL Wire some point soon? Your FPL wisdom is needed. 🙂

            1. Ragabolly
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              28 days, 22 hours ago

              Thanks mate! No appearances are scheduled in the near future

          • Top Lad Dakes. - all chips …
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Which Davis is this?

            1. SmasherLagru
              • 1 Year
              28 days, 22 hours ago

              Leeds

            2. Ragabolly
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              28 days, 22 hours ago

              Leeds defender

          • ZimZalabim
            • 4 Years
            28 days, 22 hours ago

            Jota rising everyday and unlikely to even start hmmmm

            1. COVID-CASUAL
                28 days, 22 hours ago

                It was the most essential subs appearance in FPL history!

            2. COVID-CASUAL
                28 days, 22 hours ago

                Sweet, 2nd rise for Jota on WC so I can stake him out before the deadline with 0.1 profit

              • El Fenomeno R9
                • 5 Years
                28 days, 21 hours ago

                Cheers,sweet Richa drop just in time

            3. Vazza
                28 days, 22 hours ago

                Thoughts please gents

                A. Ayling >> Robbo (free)
                B. Ayling, Gundo >> TAA, Neto (4pt hit)
                C. Veltman, Watkins/Antonio >> TAA, Nacho (4pt hit)
                D. Stones, Ayling >> TAA, Saiss
                E. Something else

                Current team

                ——————Areola——————
                ———Veltman Dias Stones———
                —Bruno Salah Gundo Son Jota—
                ————-Antonio* Kane————-

                Bench: Forster, Watkins, Ayling, Struijk

                FH available for GW33

              • Vazza
                  28 days, 22 hours ago

                  Anyone watch the Real Madrid vs Liverpool game? TAA had a shocker..

                  1. waldo666
                    • 10 Years
                    28 days, 22 hours ago

                    Watched the extended highlights, has made me think twice about brining him in on my WC.

                    1. Vazza
                        28 days, 22 hours ago

                        Read the comments posted by people on YouTube re TAA’s performance. It’s hilarious

                        1. waldo666
                          • 10 Years
                          28 days, 22 hours ago

                          Hahaha, may just do that, could do with a laugh today.

                    2. COVID-CASUAL
                        28 days, 22 hours ago

                        Reverse wildcards?

                    3. bso
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 6 Years
                      28 days, 22 hours ago

                      Son or Maddison?

                      1. waldo666
                        • 10 Years
                        28 days, 22 hours ago

                        Son

                    4. bso
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 6 Years
                      28 days, 22 hours ago

                      I have him as of now. He has not been at his best for a while. Is this why he is dropping in price tonight?

                    5. I Member
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      28 days, 22 hours ago

                      Is Castagne nailed for Leicester?

                    6. I Member
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      28 days, 22 hours ago

                      On WC. Am I crazy for thinking of going Aguero (c) for this week and then swapping to Vardy? Uses up an extra transfer but I don't really like my captaincy options this week. On Gundo currently.

                      1. COVID-CASUAL
                          28 days, 22 hours ago

                          I've been playing with two wildcard options, and one has Aguero. My main worry is that it might take 2 trades to back it out in a couple of weeks. Even above the rotation risk.

                          1. I Member
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 5 Years
                            28 days, 22 hours ago

                            Why would it take two trades? Vardy is cheaper than Aguero.

                            1. COVID-CASUAL
                                28 days, 22 hours ago

                                True if going straight to Vardy.

                                For me, was considering downgrade FWD (in terms of cost) and upgrade elsewhere i.e. 2 trades.

                        • Machine_Gunnerz
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          28 days, 22 hours ago

                          Just made the transfer of Gundo+Bamford to Nacho and Jota with exact money 30mins ago before the price rise. Woah...

                          Now, hoping for them to score 🙂

                        • Sloane426
                          • 1 Year
                          28 days, 22 hours ago

                          Already have Salah and going triple Liverpool with Phillips +
                          (A) Trent
                          (B) Jota

                          1. waldo666
                            • 10 Years
                            28 days, 22 hours ago

                            B