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How important are penalty takers in FPL since the handball rule was softened?

The early-season spate in penalty awards didn’t just dominate discussion among spectators, pundits, players and managers but it also had a significant impact on Fantasy Premier League scores and squads.

From Gameweeks 1-3, there were a whopping 20 spot-kicks given and an unprecedented 17.5% of the goals scored in the English top flight came from 12 yards.

Packing FPL teams full of penalty-takers therefore became a short-lived, semi-popular tactic in September.

But the “softening” of the controversial handball rule ahead of Gameweek 4 has unsurprisingly led to fewer such spot-kicks: there were six penalties awarded for handball in Gameweeks 1-3, the same number that there given in Gameweeks 4-17 after the relaxation.

Penalties overall have dropped as a result:


Penalties per game
2020/21 (Gameweeks 1-3)0.71
2020/21 (Gameweeks 4-33)0.29
2019/200.24
2018/190.27
2017/180.21
2016/170.28

The rate of penalties being awarded from Gameweeks 4-33 is still up on previous campaigns but the rise is marginal at best.

VAR hasn’t quite had the seismic impact that some were expecting on the rate of spot-kicks.

In 2019/20, VAR’s first season of use in the Premier League, the rate of penalty awards actually dipped from the previous campaign.

ESPN’s Dale Johnson is a must-follow for those interested in the effect of video assistant referees on the English game.

His miscellany of data from this season shows that almost as many penalties have been overturned (21) by VAR as awarded (25):


WHO TAKES PENALTIES FOR THEIR CLUBS?

Our Set Piece Takers tab details who is on penalty-taking duties for their respective clubs, as well as the players responsible for corners and free-kicks.

Most of the listings above are fairly self-explanatory: for example, we know that Mark Noble (£4.5m) is first in line for penalties at West Ham so long as he is on the pitch.

The situation at Manchester City is a bit more clouded, however.

Sergio Aguero (£10.3m) scored from the spot in the Champions League tie against Porto in October with Riyad Mahrez (£8.0m), Raheem Sterling (£11.1m), Ilkay Gundogan (£5.7m) and Rodri (£5.3m) on the field. He also scored from 12 yards in Gameweek 28 with Rodri present.

Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) has taken all of Manchester City’s Premier League penalties when he has been fit and available but Mahrez stepped up to take one in the Champions League tie against Borussia Dortmund in April, a match that also featured De Bruyne (but not Aguero!).

It’s all a bit of a mess, then, particularly when Rodri, Sterling and Gundogan have previously taken penalties in De Bruyne and Aguero’s absences.

WHAT THREAT DO THE PENALTY TAKERS OFFER FROM ELSEWHERE?

Injury updates on Son, Saka, and Burn ahead of BGW29 and Aubameyang latest

While building a “pen-plate” FPL squad consisting purely of spot-kick takers is hardly an advisable tactic now, being first in line from 12 yards doesn’t do any harm.

Ideally, though, we’d like our penalty-takers to also offer threat from elsewhere.

The table below ranks all Premier League players by their expected goal involvement per 90 minutes but strips away penalties to level the playing field.

Anyone who has racked up fewer than 500 minutes of pitch-time has been removed.


330 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rassi
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bruno fail

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      He's been poor FPL wise recently, penalties or not.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Many reasons, also partly unlucky.

        1. No Professionals
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          had his fair share of luck too, dodgy penalties, toe end assists. just evening itself out.

        2. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          I think fatigue is a factor too. No doubting that he's a class footballer and a great leader

  2. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Get Kane(C) or not? 2FTs. 1.3 itb.

    Mendy
    TAA. Shaw. Rudiger
    Salah. Bruno. Gundog. Lingard
    Vardy. DCL. Iheanacho
    (Forster, Jota, Coady, Holding)

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      i would

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yes.

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      How if so guys? 2FTs to remove Vardy?

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        DCL.

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          and Bruno.

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 11 months ago

            Yeah exactly in needs to be a big hitter too

      2. No Professionals
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        didn't realise you'd have to use both transfers.

        but i would do vardy and jota out.

      3. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        DCL to Wood?

        The form is there and WH is actually a good fixture likely. He has the same number of returns as Nacho since 27 - both have one hat trick. Fulham and SHU on the horizon isn't bad either.

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Could work. Thanks

  3. poulteren
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hi gents.

    Please help - should i play:

    A.) Jota vs. Man United

    OR

    B.) Bamford vs. Brighton

    Thanks

    🙂

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        thanks mate, yeah, my gut is saying bamford against the gulls.

    2. sulldaddy
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        tha nks mate, much appreciated

  4. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Vardy Jota to Kane Raphina -4?
    Yes or no ?

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      raphinha has a 25% chance according to the flag. assuming you would bench him this week.

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Harrison over Raphinha if you need him to play in near future.

  5. Gizzachance
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play two with taa
    A shaw
    B rudiger
    C coady
    C holding
    Cheers

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Rudiger and Holding

      1. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers

    2. SwissWavey
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I'd say Rudiger and Shaw

    3. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      If you are my competition in ML I advise C and C.

  6. Gizzachance
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thanks

  7. Ruinenlust
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    A) Vardy to Kane (-4)

    B) Keep Vardy and go without Kane

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Same boat and I'm leaning towards B

    3. drughi
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      With A you get Sheffield(home and Leeds(away)
      With B you get Southampton(Away) Newcastle(home) and United(away) +4 points

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        This.

        I am going without Kane. I do have Son and hope that will be enough coverage!

  8. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Is anybody concerned about Shaw being rotated to preserve him for the EL (now that title race is gone and CL berth is practically sealed)?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      It's still a trophy to win. Wouldn't expect him to be dropped for Pool though.

      1. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Agree, just thinking ahead to potential DGW35

    2. built_this_city
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Shaw and Bruno will stop in my team until the end of the season - just set and forget unless injured

  9. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Who scores the LEAST over the next TWO GWs?

    A) Salah
    B) Bruno
    C) Kane(-4)
    D) Vardy

    ..

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      C

    3. OOJ
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

  10. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Earlier in the season I was building my own XG/90 stat which gave a boost to penalty takers of around 0.15 (based on penalty likelihood and conversion rate). For Bruno (rarely misses) this still feels reasonable, but it may be a bit high for other players looking at how pens have dropped off.

  11. jtreble
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Noel Whelan, ex-Leeds striker, has tipped Raphinha to return from injury this weekend:
    https://www.footballinsider247.com/whelan-makes-big-raphinha-injury-claim-ahead-of-leeds-clash/

    GL all.

    1. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Cheers. Even if he is fit, I wouldn't be rushing to get him back in. Brighton schooled Leeds in the reverse fixture and who knows whether Raph will hit the ground running.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      What rubbish. He just says he’s desperate for him to return. Total non story.

  12. Phlajo
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Sitting on 2FT and 1,5itb... Not really sure what to do here...

    Team is
    Mendy Forster
    TAA Rudiger Coady Alioski Mitchell
    Bruno Salah Son Mount Jota
    Vardy Nacho Vydra

    Insane to do Vydra + Jota to DCL + Eze? Would bench Eze this GW, but he's having a great run of fixtures and a DGW soon

    Other auggestions welcome..

  13. built_this_city
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Smith Rowe a decent 5th Mid? Seems to be back in favour?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Depends what you want him for? Fantasy Asset not too sure. Placeholder sure.

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Back in favour only because Ø was injured.

    3. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I've had him since GW26, mainly as a cheapo that gives me 2pts to cover BGWs and injuries. Not too bad if you're going the three strikers route.

    4. Limbo
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Got injured for a while. Excellent cheap bench fodder if you need the cash on a WC

  14. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Mad to go without Kane this week? I have Son and Reguilion.
    Really dont want lose Vardy this week and before possible dgw...

    1. built_this_city
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      not mad no, but he will have a high EO so you would be taking it in the bum big time if he does score.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        That all depends on who is in Kane's place.

        1. Pep bites Kun
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          It would seem to be Vardy according to the the orig poster

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 11 months ago

            Both can score. vardy has a double. Close call IMO. EO is the worst buzz word of the season.

            1. Ruinenlust
              • 6 Years
              2 years, 11 months ago

              Has it been confirmed Vardy has a double?

              1. Eze Really?
                • 9 Years
                2 years, 11 months ago

                Not yet but in all likelihood. My real issue is thinking about transfers without all the info.

            2. Pep bites Kun
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 11 months ago

              Agree.

    2. Pep bites Kun
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      You know the gamble. Many people are in the same situation.

      Would you cap Kane if you brought him in this week? What about future games?
      Will you cap Vardy this week or for future games?

    3. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Nope.

      Keep Vardy and roll with it!

  15. AJ24
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Does anyone know when the cut off is for Monthly points?
    Top of April Manager of month, but this Friday game is in April, so does this GW count as April or May?

    1. AJ24
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      In ML

    2. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      April

    3. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      All of gw34 counts as April. GL

  16. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Nice article

    Had been pondering this and good to have confirmation. Shame that Cavani is so low on minutes. I imagine he'd be near the top when looking at actual returns for XG too. Doesn't miss a lot and dirt cheap really.

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I wish he could be relied on to play.

  17. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Best way to burn a FT this week?? 2FTs, 0.5 itb...

    A. Forster -> Johnstone
    B. Coady -> Alioski
    C. Other???

    Mendy Forster
    Shaw Coady Fofana Rudiger Phillips
    Salah Bruno Son Jota Saka
    Kane Wilson Nacho

    1. SmasherLagru
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Coady to coleman

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Coleman is far from nailed unfortunately

      2. SmasherLagru
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Then watkins n holding in 35 n bb

        1. SmasherLagru
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          He'll have the dgw

    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Wilson to Wood easy for me here

      Just posted above about Wood. Don't see it as points chasing at all. You'll get the starts anyway 😉

      WH = good fixture on current defensive form
      Fulham = good fixture and Burnley good away
      Leeds = first bench anyway
      Liverpool = first bench anyway
      SHU = prime as can be

      No DGW is downside but I'd have him over any other budget forward for the run in I think given you already have Nacho.

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Absolutely pains me to get rid of Wilson when Bruce hasn’t even given him a start to prove himself... just me being stubborn

        Fixtures look good and Burnley playing a nice attacking style of football is good to see, would need to play him v Leeds in the BGW36 but the rest is spot on mate

        1. Pep bites Kun
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          I'd play him v Leeds - 9 attacking returns in the last 6.

      2. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        This^

  18. tbos83
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Would you start Mount (v Ful) or Jota (v ManU)? Bearing in mind Mount could be rested...

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Jota is just as likely as Mount to be rested mate.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Mount Pulli Gundo Saka Greenwood Jota Bale could all be rested

  19. MightyGar
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hello! I have 2FT and don't want to burn one.

    Is Coleman (Eve) playing due to someone else's injury, or is he nailed? I am considering based on the potential double / blank weeks and as a differential.

    1. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I think Godfrey often comes in at RB for Everton

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      He is well thought of but coming to the end of the road. Digne for a bit more money is reliable. Not sure I want a toffee defender though.

    3. MightyGar
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Cheers both. Digne has disappointed me enough this season, perhaps I should learn from that and steer clear of Everton players!

  20. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hi

    Is the below GTG?

    Mendy

    Shaw | TAA | Rudiger

    Son | Maddison | Jota | Salah | Lingard

    Iheanacho | Kane

    Forster | Vydra | Veltman | Holding

    Anyone you would bench? I was thinking of starting Vydra.

    Much appreciated.

    1. MightyGar
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      You could possibly bench Jota if you think Utd will play out a 0-0 again

  21. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Start Welbeck or Jota?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Danny

  22. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thanks above guys... which of these then? 2FTs. 1.3m ITB. Will Captain Harry.

    A. Vardy+Gundog >> Kane+Raphinha
    B. Vardy+DCL >> Kane+Wood
    C. DCL+Bruno >> Kane+Greenwood/JRod
    D. Vardy+Bruno >> Kane+Son

    Mendy
    TAA. Shaw. Rudiger
    Salah. Bruno. Gundog. Lingard
    Vardy. DCL. Iheanacho
    (Forster, Jota, Coady, Holding)

    1. cigan
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I like B

  23. tafrère
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bruno + 4.5/5.0 def

    or

    Mount/Hamez + TAA

  24. cigan
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hi

    I've got 1 FT & both WC & FH available for the upcoming doubles/blanks. No cash in the bank, loads of value in Bruno.

    Would you sell Bruno to get Son in for a week?
    Or go for someone like Maddison/Castagne or Moura/Reguilon?
    Maybe even a City punt (based on tonight's lineup)?

    Also, what do you think about Johnstone vs. Martinez & bench order? I think I've had enough of bench keeper outperforming the starting one

    Johnstone
    Dias James Dallas
    Salah Bruno Greenwood Lingard
    Kane Nacho Wood
    (Martinez Jota Saiss Coufal)

  25. Mweene
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Selling Jota.

    Should I get Rodriguez or Sigurdsson?

    Rodriguez is the better player but Sig is obviously on pens and set-pieces...

    Could do Cavani to Wood instead though.

    1. greghammer95
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Prefer Cavani to Wood.

      1. Mweene
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Really? I've had him for 2 weeks and he didn't start either game.

    2. cigan
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I'd deffo sell Cavani before Jota

    3. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No particular sign of Everton becoming expansive and don't think either mid is likely to be exciting to own. The two games against Villa feel like being cagey affairs to me.

      Prefer the Wood move or a punt on Bowen - WH I can see going for Europe by attempting to score more goals than the opposition rather than trying to concede one fewer.

      One less fixture of course.

      1. Mweene
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Vill (h), DGW, Sheff (h), Wolves (h) is such a tasty run though. Rodriguez seems to get decent points in home games.

        1. pingissimus
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Interesting spot about the home games

          Theoretically Everton look like a good thing with the DGW and the fixtures are tasty as you say. I'm just put off by the lack of ambition they showed against Arsenal and the really disappointing team form. Don't really see them battering anyone and it's tricky to pick where the goals will come from.

    4. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      A long drawn out answer: NO!!!

      1. Mweene
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Cavani to Richarlison?

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          A better call.

  26. Mainswitch
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Is Kane & ASM rom Vardy & Raphina worth the -4 ?

    1. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Only if Kane would be 100% out.

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      You have held on to Raphinha I presume. Just when it is about to pay you want to move him out?

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Don’t want to be getting rid of Raph I’ll tell you that much

  27. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Iheanacho is the most in-form player in the league. Do you dare not to captain him?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yes, I like to play with fire and then cry later on.

    2. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Kane against SHU says hello

    3. Sterling Archer
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      if you want to make up ground, he is a good choice! his captaincy points this week were big for me, Kane is zzzzzzzzzzz this week

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Says someone who can’t afford Kane..

  28. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bruno will punish sellers mark my words. He’s posing some of the best stats from open play all season, and goal threat is at a season high. Hugely underperforming his stats right now...

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yup

  29. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone capping son?

    1. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      If not capping Kane, Nacho probably a better bet, better form and also good fixture. But otoh a Friday night captain fail is not very fun....

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Lingz just to keep you in suspense to the end? 🙂

  30. Kodap
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Would you say I'm good to go for this week? Sitting at 13k OR and would love to hit the top 10k.

    Mendy
    Trent - Coady - Rudiger
    Son - Lingard - Bruno - Salah - Maddison
    Kane (c) - Nacho

    Bench order: Forster - Coufal - Veltman - Vydra