Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Pro Pundits 7

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Assuming shaw/greenwood dont start, which hits makes most sense?

    Mendy
    Taa Holding Rudiger --- Shaw Digne
    Salah Mane Raphinha Lingard Greenwood
    Kane Antonio

    A: Shaw >> Dallas (-4)
    B: Greenwood >> Mount (-4)...or torres/raphinha/saka?
    C: Ignore hit and get whatever points from greenwood/digne

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Greenwood -> Willock maybe, depends if you are worried about a -4 hurting your rank

    2. waldo666
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      A looks good, Greenwood more likely to get minutes than Shaw, imo.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        yeah..if i get a leak that he is playing, then i wont take the hit

    3. Davros
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Assume your third striker is non playing? You already have Raph, so probably A

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Yes Davis is 3rd sub.

        Yeah A is the most tempting option bit seems weird taking a hit for defender for 1 week

    4. Abraham & Cheese
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      I'd be trying to avoid any hits in the final week, since it's always so unpredictable.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        thats usually a good strategy

  2. HD7
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    G2G? *Playing it all or nothing*

    Best captain from Antonio, Bamford, Torres?

    Mendy
    Philips, Rudiger, Dallas
    Salah, Son, Torres, Pepe
    Kane, Antonio, Bamford

    Pickford, Greenwood, Holding, Keane

    1. waldo666
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Bam

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Don't do Torres, you want a differential captain that still has an element of safety, Bamford probably has a higher ceiling but Antonio should be safer for minutes on the pitch

    3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      pepe c

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        bamford isn't guaranteed even 60 mins
        torres may start, may not but a good pick if you want a big risk
        antonio is ok but west ham are struggling to create many chances
        arsenal have been poor but playing better and pepe in form

        it would be between torres and pepe for me and i'd go pepe but that's just me. Any one of those could easily go either way

    4. Davros
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Antman

    5. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Ant

    6. Abraham & Cheese
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      As a differential, I prefer Bamford but I think Toni will get more time.

  3. waldo666
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    2 FTs, 1.4 ITB and no idea.

    Any thoughts on what best to do here? I quite like my team apart from the obvious worry with United players, have this nagging feeling Bruno will play some part.

    Martinez
    TAA Dallas Coufal
    Salah Son Bruno Lingard Raphinha
    Bamford Antonio

    (Johnstone Watkins Holding Shaw)

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      If you don't want to get rid of Bruno then make the transfer so your first bench option is a good player.
      I'd try to swap Watkins for Iheanacho with the 2FT

      1. waldo666
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers, Nacho cheaper than Watkins so straight swap is easy done there. Would consider a GK move with second FT.

    2. Davros
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Bruno and Son to Mane and Mount if FT

  4. Ohh1454
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Which ?
    A. Targett and Raphina
    B. Chilwell and ASM
    Only 1ft so it comes down to this

    1. waldo666
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      A

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      The order of their FPL talent is probably
      Raph, Chill, Targett, ASM.


      A probably makes more sense

      1. Ohh1454
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Could it be worth a hit to go Targett > Chilwell ?

    3. Davros
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      A

  5. baggs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Forster playing for the saints?

    1. Saosin
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Looks like it but not 100% i guess

    2. HD7
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      50/50

  6. HD7
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Mates,
    Pick the best duo of differentials from:
    Harrison, Raphinha, Pepe, Torres, ESR?

    1. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Think I'd most want raph and Tories from them

      1. beric
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Oh dear I def dont want tories

        1. The Ilfordian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Priti Patel or Jacob Rees Mogg at right back?

          1. beric
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Oop as they're both right wingers

            1. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

            2. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Lol

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Raph and Pep

  7. Saosin
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Chasing 30p. Anything worth a hit? 1.1 ITB

    Meslier
    Digne - Holding* - Phillips*
    Mané (C) - Salah* - Raph - Bale - Lingard
    Bamford* (VC) - Kane*

    Forster - Shaw* - Godfrey - Watkins

    * = same as rival

    1. baggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Nah

    2. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Nah, you've got a chance, albeit a slim one. Dont think a hit will help you

    3. Il Capitano
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Don't think so

      • Davros
        • 12 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        No

      • fusen
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        No but put Watkins as first on your bench

      • Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        May be watkins over bale

    4. Lacikasz01
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Pick one to bring in on a free transfer:

        a) Antonio
        b) Wood
        c) Bamford

        1. FPLGeezer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          C

        2. Davros
          • 12 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          C

        3. Super Saints
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          C

        4. Il Capitano
            2 months, 4 days ago

            C

          • fusen
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            I'd say it depends on what your aim is. Bamford is the safety pick then Antonio then Wood

            Personally I'm going with Wood though

          • Hy liverpool
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            A

          • waldo666
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            C

        5. beric
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Bale and Foden. Reckon they start?

          1. ClassiX
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Bale 85%
            Foden 60%

          2. Steve The Spud
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Yes I think so

        6. Il Capitano
            2 months, 4 days ago

            1FT 1.4m ITB

            Martinez
            TAA Digne Shaw
            Son Lingard Salah Raphinha
            DCL Bamford Kane

            Fabri - ESR Targett Mitchell

            A) Targett/Shaw > Dallas (play Digne)
            B) Digne > Robertson (Targett autosub for Shaw)
            C) Shaw + Digne > Robertson + Dallas (-4)

            1. fusen
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              C

          • Super Saints
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Is this team ok?

            Henderson
            TAA Dallas Coufal
            Salah Son Greenwood Lingard
            Kane Bamford Iheanacho
            Lloris Pereira Shaw Ward

            1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              if Pereira is fit he starts over most of that midfield

              1. Super Saints
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Agree but I'm blocking rival with Greenwood Lingard and Son has punished me so many times this season when I've sold etc so I'm learning from my mistakes.

              2. Super Saints
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Leeds defence has also been good of late

              3. FAITHNOMORENO
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                is he?

          • FPLGeezer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Which would you do? Ahead by 2 points in a money league. Rival wont have either player coming in potentially. Have Salah and TAA already.

            A) Digne > Robertson

            B) DCL > Firmino

            1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              b

          • Mr Ozil
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Good Morning All,

            Current team: 1FT, 0.4 itb

            Mendy
            Holding Dallas Robertson
            Salah Bruno Greenwood Raphinha
            Vydra DCL Kane

            Subs: Forster Zaha Rudiger Coady

            Which is better?

            A- Zaha + Vydra > ESR + Antonio (-4)
            B- Bruno + Zaha > Mane + Lingard (-4)
            C- Bruno + DCL > Mane + Antonio (-4)
            D- Something else

            Leaning towards B atm

            1. Davros
              • 12 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              C over B

          • MoSalalalalalalalalah
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Wood or Nacho?

            1. ClassiX
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Wood if you're defending your OR/ML place (shield)
              Nacho if you're chasing

              1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Nacho I guess then. Chasing 14 points in my ML

            2. Ohh1454
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              I really feel nacho could go big this week spurs are so poor I’m going nacho captain anyways

              1. Bobby's Teeth
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                I am mulling over the same. Confused b/w Nacho and Antonio

          • MoSalalalalalalalalah
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Have a Forster and Martinez in goal, and still 1 FT. Chasing points. A change worth it or not?

            1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              nope, goalkeeper ceiling is too low. Make a change elsewhere for a more explosive pick

              1. PepSala
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                I'm in a similar boat and don't want to change a single player except for martinez? Who would switch to? Can't do Allison

              2. MoSalalalalalalalalah
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Perhaps, but unsure what to change here. Already doing Cavani to Nacho/Wood

                Forster
                TAA | Rudiger | Dallas
                Salah | Lingard | Foden | Greenwood
                Antonio | Kane | Cavani

                GK: Martinez | Zaha | Digne | Veltman

                1. PepSala
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Cavani most likely rested mate. I'd get bamford or Raphina.

                  1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
                    • 3 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Yeah getting in Nacho because my rival has Bamford

          • HD7
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Do you think Torres starts?
            I know Pep suprises often. But it should be him starting and being a sub in the final?

            1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              possibly but really don't know with pep

          • JabbaWookiee
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            A) Antonio or Bamford?
            B) Coufal or Castagne?

            1. fusen
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Safety is
              Bamford and Coufal

              A more differential would be Antonio and Castagne

            2. Il Capitano
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Bam and Couf

            3. PepSala
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Best keeper for GW38 that's not Allison?

              1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                • 11 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                gk choice this week are poor

                maybe ederson and maybe pope if fit

                1. PepSala
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Not mendy? Bookies have Chelsea with best odds to keep CS after Liverpool

                  1. Hy liverpool
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Mendy is good option imo too

                  2. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                    • 11 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    mendy is good but grealish and villa do look threatening. I don't think there are many cs around personally

              2. Hy liverpool
                • 7 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Ederson or dubravka

                1. unitednations
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  is he fit?

            4. Steve The Spud
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Ings > Bobby for a -4?

            5. Daniel Jebbison
              • 12 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Antonio or Nacho who will score more in this GW?

              1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                • 11 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                nacho but just my opinion

              2. waldo666
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Antonio

              3. Hy liverpool
                • 7 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Antonio

            6. Abraham & Cheese
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Getting James Rodriguez on my wildcard 3 weeks back was an absolute FAIL! But alas, he can redeem himself by making room for a player that strives to earn more than 0 points. But who??

              1. Mount
              2. Pepe
              3. Raphinha
              4. Foden

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Foden if he starts

              2. Gizzachance
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                C

            7. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Who would you prioritise to get in with your 1FT?

              A. Bruno to Mane
              B. Davis to Bamford

              1FT 3.2ITB
              Mendy
              TAA Dallas Rudiger
              Salah Bruno Lingard Raphinha Greenwood
              Kane Antonio
              (Forster Shaw Holding Davis)

            8. Dog and Fox
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Play Bamford and Greenwood

              Or Firmino and Harrison for -4?

              1. Hy liverpool
                • 7 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Bobby and harrison

              2. matiakez
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Wait what's up with Bamford

                1. Dog and Fox
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  DCL -> bam for free

                  Or DCL, Jota -> Firmino, Harrison -4

                  Bam is fine 🙂

            9. Oggle22
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Forster
              TAA Coady Holding
              Salah Bruno Jlingz Mahrez
              DCL Antonio Ings

              Guaita Greenwood Ward Amartey

              Bruno Mahrez and DCL to Mane Raphina and Bamford -8?

              Or

              Bruno and DCL to Mane and Bamford -4 and hope Mahrez or Greenwood play

              Cheers

              1. beric
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Dont think I'd sell dcl for a hit

            10. Dark Side Of The Loon!
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              What is the expected Chelsea lineup? Do we think Havertz will feature?

            11. Gizzachance
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Morning all, Thoughts? 1ft, 1.5 itb, good lead in ml leagues just outside 3k

              Mendy
              Taa dallas holding
              Salah c ling son mahrez
              Kane nacho Antonio

              Forster jota• shaw holgate

              Thanks

            12. Sharkytect
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Ooh, Nicolas pepe...I could get him and aguero in place of Bruno and Watkins for a -4 hit. Super differentials....but have a 7 point gap to make up

              1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                • 11 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                7 points isn't big. although bruno to someone is a good move, not sure he starts. Bruno to pepe could be the one but plenty more interesting picks. I was considering auba

              2. PepSala
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Pepe is a solid choice. Aguero won't get more than 20 mins imo

              3. fusen
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Do not get aguero is you're just trying to make up 7 points. There are better options.

                Also don't take a hit if you don't need to, 7 points is absolutely nothing

            13. TSILIKAFENEIAKOS
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Do you think Mahrez will feature? Or should i do a -4 to get Mane. lingard first on bench.

            14. HD7
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Okay if Pepe is the first differential...
              second is between Torres and Raphinha

              Thing is Raph aint the best differential, right?

              1. AC/DC AFC
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                I'm on Torres and may well bring in another Man City player

              2. Hy liverpool
                • 7 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Harrison may be

            15. matiakez
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              What are Greenwood owners doing? I'm currently starting him but not sure of it at all

              1. Super Saints
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Currently starting, what else can we do!

              2. Grimlock
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Yeh same. On form and score from bench... reckon he may start as isn't first choice for the final