Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Assuming shaw/greenwood dont start, which hits makes most sense?

    Mendy
    Taa Holding Rudiger --- Shaw Digne
    Salah Mane Raphinha Lingard Greenwood
    Kane Antonio

    A: Shaw >> Dallas (-4)
    B: Greenwood >> Mount (-4)...or torres/raphinha/saka?
    C: Ignore hit and get whatever points from greenwood/digne

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Greenwood -> Willock maybe, depends if you are worried about a -4 hurting your rank

    2. waldo666
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      A looks good, Greenwood more likely to get minutes than Shaw, imo.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        yeah..if i get a leak that he is playing, then i wont take the hit

    3. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Assume your third striker is non playing? You already have Raph, so probably A

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Yes Davis is 3rd sub.

        Yeah A is the most tempting option bit seems weird taking a hit for defender for 1 week

    4. Abraham & Cheese
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      I'd be trying to avoid any hits in the final week, since it's always so unpredictable.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        thats usually a good strategy

  2. HD7
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    G2G? *Playing it all or nothing*

    Best captain from Antonio, Bamford, Torres?

    Mendy
    Philips, Rudiger, Dallas
    Salah, Son, Torres, Pepe
    Kane, Antonio, Bamford

    Pickford, Greenwood, Holding, Keane

    1. waldo666
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Bam

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Don't do Torres, you want a differential captain that still has an element of safety, Bamford probably has a higher ceiling but Antonio should be safer for minutes on the pitch

    3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      pepe c

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 11 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        bamford isn't guaranteed even 60 mins
        torres may start, may not but a good pick if you want a big risk
        antonio is ok but west ham are struggling to create many chances
        arsenal have been poor but playing better and pepe in form

        it would be between torres and pepe for me and i'd go pepe but that's just me. Any one of those could easily go either way

    4. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Antman

    5. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Ant

    6. Abraham & Cheese
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      As a differential, I prefer Bamford but I think Toni will get more time.

  3. waldo666
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    2 FTs, 1.4 ITB and no idea.

    Any thoughts on what best to do here? I quite like my team apart from the obvious worry with United players, have this nagging feeling Bruno will play some part.

    Martinez
    TAA Dallas Coufal
    Salah Son Bruno Lingard Raphinha
    Bamford Antonio

    (Johnstone Watkins Holding Shaw)

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      If you don't want to get rid of Bruno then make the transfer so your first bench option is a good player.
      I'd try to swap Watkins for Iheanacho with the 2FT

      1. waldo666
        • 11 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers, Nacho cheaper than Watkins so straight swap is easy done there. Would consider a GK move with second FT.

    2. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Bruno and Son to Mane and Mount if FT

  4. Ohh1454
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Which ?
    A. Targett and Raphina
    B. Chilwell and ASM
    Only 1ft so it comes down to this

    1. waldo666
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      A

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      The order of their FPL talent is probably
      Raph, Chill, Targett, ASM.


      A probably makes more sense

      1. Ohh1454
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Could it be worth a hit to go Targett > Chilwell ?

    3. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      A

  5. baggs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Forster playing for the saints?

    1. Saosin
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Looks like it but not 100% i guess

    2. HD7
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      50/50

  6. HD7
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Mates,
    Pick the best duo of differentials from:
    Harrison, Raphinha, Pepe, Torres, ESR?

    1. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Think I'd most want raph and Tories from them

      1. beric
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Oh dear I def dont want tories

        1. The Ilfordian
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 1 day ago

          Priti Patel or Jacob Rees Mogg at right back?

          1. beric
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 months, 1 day ago

            Oop as they're both right wingers

            1. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              4 months, 1 day ago

            2. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              4 months, 1 day ago

              Lol

    2. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Raph and Pep

  7. Saosin
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Chasing 30p. Anything worth a hit? 1.1 ITB

    Meslier
    Digne - Holding* - Phillips*
    Mané (C) - Salah* - Raph - Bale - Lingard
    Bamford* (VC) - Kane*

    Forster - Shaw* - Godfrey - Watkins

    * = same as rival

    1. baggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Nah

    2. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Nah, you've got a chance, albeit a slim one. Dont think a hit will help you

    3. Il Capitano
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Don't think so

    4. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      No

    5. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      No but put Watkins as first on your bench

    6. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      May be watkins over bale

  8. Lacikasz01
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Pick one to bring in on a free transfer:

    a) Antonio
    b) Wood
    c) Bamford

    1. FPLGeezer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

    2. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

    3. Super Saints
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

    4. Il Capitano
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

    5. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      I'd say it depends on what your aim is. Bamford is the safety pick then Antonio then Wood

      Personally I'm going with Wood though

    6. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      A

    7. waldo666
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

  9. beric
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Bale and Foden. Reckon they start?

    1. ClassiX
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Bale 85%
      Foden 60%

    2. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Yes I think so

  10. Il Capitano
    4 months, 1 day ago

    1FT 1.4m ITB

    Martinez
    TAA Digne Shaw
    Son Lingard Salah Raphinha
    DCL Bamford Kane

    Fabri - ESR Targett Mitchell

    A) Targett/Shaw > Dallas (play Digne)
    B) Digne > Robertson (Targett autosub for Shaw)
    C) Shaw + Digne > Robertson + Dallas (-4)

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

  11. Super Saints
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Is this team ok?

    Henderson
    TAA Dallas Coufal
    Salah Son Greenwood Lingard
    Kane Bamford Iheanacho
    Lloris Pereira Shaw Ward

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      if Pereira is fit he starts over most of that midfield

      1. Super Saints
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Agree but I'm blocking rival with Greenwood Lingard and Son has punished me so many times this season when I've sold etc so I'm learning from my mistakes.

      2. Super Saints
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Leeds defence has also been good of late

      3. FAITHNOMORENO
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        is he?

  12. FPLGeezer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Which would you do? Ahead by 2 points in a money league. Rival wont have either player coming in potentially. Have Salah and TAA already.

    A) Digne > Robertson

    B) DCL > Firmino

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      b

  13. Mr Ozil
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Good Morning All,

    Current team: 1FT, 0.4 itb

    Mendy
    Holding Dallas Robertson
    Salah Bruno Greenwood Raphinha
    Vydra DCL Kane

    Subs: Forster Zaha Rudiger Coady

    Which is better?

    A- Zaha + Vydra > ESR + Antonio (-4)
    B- Bruno + Zaha > Mane + Lingard (-4)
    C- Bruno + DCL > Mane + Antonio (-4)
    D- Something else

    Leaning towards B atm

    1. Davros
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C over B

  14. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Wood or Nacho?

    1. ClassiX
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Wood if you're defending your OR/ML place (shield)
      Nacho if you're chasing

      1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Nacho I guess then. Chasing 14 points in my ML

    2. Ohh1454
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      I really feel nacho could go big this week spurs are so poor I’m going nacho captain anyways

      1. Bobby's Teeth
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        I am mulling over the same. Confused b/w Nacho and Antonio

  15. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Have a Forster and Martinez in goal, and still 1 FT. Chasing points. A change worth it or not?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      nope, goalkeeper ceiling is too low. Make a change elsewhere for a more explosive pick

      1. PepSala
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        I'm in a similar boat and don't want to change a single player except for martinez? Who would switch to? Can't do Allison

      2. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Perhaps, but unsure what to change here. Already doing Cavani to Nacho/Wood

        Forster
        TAA | Rudiger | Dallas
        Salah | Lingard | Foden | Greenwood
        Antonio | Kane | Cavani

        GK: Martinez | Zaha | Digne | Veltman

        1. PepSala
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 1 day ago

          Cavani most likely rested mate. I'd get bamford or Raphina.

          1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 1 day ago

            Yeah getting in Nacho because my rival has Bamford

  16. HD7
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Do you think Torres starts?
    I know Pep suprises often. But it should be him starting and being a sub in the final?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      possibly but really don't know with pep

  17. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    A) Antonio or Bamford?
    B) Coufal or Castagne?

    1. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Safety is
      Bamford and Coufal

      A more differential would be Antonio and Castagne

    2. Il Capitano
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Bam and Couf

  18. PepSala
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Best keeper for GW38 that's not Allison?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      gk choice this week are poor

      maybe ederson and maybe pope if fit

      1. PepSala
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        Not mendy? Bookies have Chelsea with best odds to keep CS after Liverpool

        1. Hy liverpool
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 1 day ago

          Mendy is good option imo too

        2. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
          • 11 Years
          4 months, 1 day ago

          mendy is good but grealish and villa do look threatening. I don't think there are many cs around personally

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Ederson or dubravka

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        is he fit?

  19. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Ings > Bobby for a -4?

  20. Daniel Jebbison
    • 12 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Antonio or Nacho who will score more in this GW?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      nacho but just my opinion

    2. waldo666
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Antonio

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Antonio

  21. Abraham & Cheese
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Getting James Rodriguez on my wildcard 3 weeks back was an absolute FAIL! But alas, he can redeem himself by making room for a player that strives to earn more than 0 points. But who??

    1. Mount
    2. Pepe
    3. Raphinha
    4. Foden

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Foden if he starts

    2. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      C

  22. Tonyawesome69
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Who would you prioritise to get in with your 1FT?

    A. Bruno to Mane
    B. Davis to Bamford

    1FT 3.2ITB
    Mendy
    TAA Dallas Rudiger
    Salah Bruno Lingard Raphinha Greenwood
    Kane Antonio
    (Forster Shaw Holding Davis)

  23. Dog and Fox
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Play Bamford and Greenwood

    Or Firmino and Harrison for -4?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Bobby and harrison

    2. matiakez
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Wait what's up with Bamford

      1. Dog and Fox
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 1 day ago

        DCL -> bam for free

        Or DCL, Jota -> Firmino, Harrison -4

        Bam is fine 🙂

  24. Oggle22
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Forster
    TAA Coady Holding
    Salah Bruno Jlingz Mahrez
    DCL Antonio Ings

    Guaita Greenwood Ward Amartey

    Bruno Mahrez and DCL to Mane Raphina and Bamford -8?

    Or

    Bruno and DCL to Mane and Bamford -4 and hope Mahrez or Greenwood play

    Cheers

    1. beric
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Dont think I'd sell dcl for a hit

  25. Dark Side Of The Loon!
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    What is the expected Chelsea lineup? Do we think Havertz will feature?

  26. Gizzachance
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Morning all, Thoughts? 1ft, 1.5 itb, good lead in ml leagues just outside 3k

    Mendy
    Taa dallas holding
    Salah c ling son mahrez
    Kane nacho Antonio

    Forster jota• shaw holgate

    Thanks

  27. Sharkytect
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Ooh, Nicolas pepe...I could get him and aguero in place of Bruno and Watkins for a -4 hit. Super differentials....but have a 7 point gap to make up

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      7 points isn't big. although bruno to someone is a good move, not sure he starts. Bruno to pepe could be the one but plenty more interesting picks. I was considering auba

    2. PepSala
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Pepe is a solid choice. Aguero won't get more than 20 mins imo

    3. fusen
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Do not get aguero is you're just trying to make up 7 points. There are better options.

      Also don't take a hit if you don't need to, 7 points is absolutely nothing

  28. TSILIKAFENEIAKOS
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Do you think Mahrez will feature? Or should i do a -4 to get Mane. lingard first on bench.

  29. HD7
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    Okay if Pepe is the first differential...
    second is between Torres and Raphinha

    Thing is Raph aint the best differential, right?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      I'm on Torres and may well bring in another Man City player

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Harrison may be

  30. matiakez
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 1 day ago

    What are Greenwood owners doing? I'm currently starting him but not sure of it at all

    1. Super Saints
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Currently starting, what else can we do!

    2. Grimlock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 1 day ago

      Yeh same. On form and score from bench... reckon he may start as isn't first choice for the final