Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pidogr30
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Hello guys. Good luck to everyone for the last GW. Can i have some help please? I am 30 points ahead in before the last GW.
    What should i do?
    A) Meslier > Mendy and Bruno > Pepe
    B) Meslier > Mendy and Bruno > Lingard ( cover as the opponent has lingard)

    Thank you

    1. Mouldmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Who is your 2nd keeper?

      As dull as it is, Lingard a better option IMO

      1. Pidogr30
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Unfortunately is is Carson as i maxed out funds in mid.

    2. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      B if for free

  2. sarnshawn
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Thoughts on whether I’ve benched the right people?

    Areola (Martinez)
    Digne Dallas Phillips
    Son Fernandes Mount Raph
    Bamford(c) Kane Iheanacho
    Bench - Godfrey Mings Pereira

    1. RVP 20
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 8 days ago

      you are good to go!

    2. Bedok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Looks fine to me.

    3. Mouldmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Looks the right order. Guess you are hoping for a Pool blank? No chance of shifting Bruno?

      How you feeling about Digne?

      I have him and looking at Dallas (-4) thoughts?

      1. sarnshawn
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Thanks everyone!

        I can’t afford any decent pool players so hoping for a blank haha

        Hmm hoping city blank too. Yeah go for Dallas

  3. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Play Jota or Nacho?

    1. Mouldmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Nacho

    2. Jon Snow
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Nachooooo

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Nacho

    4. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Thanks. What about Jota or Zaha?

      1. Bedok
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        You know, you could have asked that in the original post (Jota over Nacho and/or Zaha?). It's more likely Zaha gets a full game and I thought Jota was out for the year. The 'tiny' probability that he plays may be good enough to play him and have Zaha come off the bench if he doesn't make it. Surely if he is at all injured, Jota would not come in for a cameo.

  4. Jon Snow
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Morning all, Still trying to get this right! 1ft, $$$ itb

    TAA, Dallas, Shaw, Holding, Mitchell
    Salah, ASM, Greenwood, Lingard, Raphinha
    Kane, DCL, Davis

    10pts behind in my ML. Rival has Bamford/Antonio/Son over DCL/Davis/ASM but no money itb to block me easily. But worried as with a -4 to being in extra LIV he can match my team + Bamf/Antonio which isn't good for me.

    A) Shaw >>> Robertson
    B) ASM/Greenwood >>> Mane
    C) Davis >>> Firmino
    D) Other

  5. winchester
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Anyone know if Bruno will rest today? Any pressers out?

    • TopCorner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 8 days ago

      TAA/Dallas/Holding (Shaw/Digne)
      Ling/Salah/Raph/Bale (Greenwood)
      Kane/Nacho/DCL

      Options
      A. DCL to Bamford, Antonio or Wood
      B. DCL to Antonio/Wood + Greenwood to Harrison (-4)
      C. A + Digne to Robbo (-4)

    • RVP 20
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Hello everyone, wish you all the best for the last gameweek!

      Any advices for me maybe, 1 FT, 2.3 ITB Currently on:

      Martinez
      TAA Dallas Stones
      Salah (c) Lingard Saka Greenwood
      Kane Bamford DCL

      Forster Shaw Gundogan Targett

      Holding 30 lead in ML, was thinking DCL -> Firmino perhaps?

      1. ameisin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Could be a good move - although you never know with Firmino!

        Not certain that Stones will start, so maybe upgrade him instead. Robertson?

    • Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Final sense check:

      A. Bring in Raph and play DCL, benching Holding
      B. DCL > Bamford and play Holding
      C. Both for -4

      1. RVP 20
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Both

      2. teknicolourfox
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Both

    • SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Guys who is more likely to play more minutes? Harrison or bamford?? My transfer come down to these two options

      A) dcl to bam
      B) elghazi to Harrison and bench dcl (have raph though)

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        A

    • DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Is Ferran Torres too risky to bring in?

      1. mcsteely
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Not if you’ve a bit gap to catch up, it there are more likely picks ahead of him

    • chelseabrad
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Will Meslier play?

      1. dansully3
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        No

      2. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Nope

      3. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Bielsa already said Casilla was getting these last two matches.

      4. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Unlikely

      5. FPL Pillars
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Confirmed no he will not play

    • lordkippe
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Ricky P, Foden & Kane > Alioski, Mane & Werner(C) for -8 a decent gamble ?

      1. teknicolourfox
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Alioski unpredictable
        Werner the same.

        Not transfers I'd make

        1. Tinkermania
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 8 days ago

          If anyone was predictable, we would all be on 2700 points for the season.

          1. teknicolourfox
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            It's an opinion, that's what he wants no?

            What's your valuable input?

    • FPL Pillars
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Start one:

      A Areola (NEW)
      B Mendy (avl)

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Mendy

      2. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        B

      3. theroadrunner
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Mendy

      4. mcsteely
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Mendy

    • theroadrunner
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Long post please bear with me. 1 point behind my ML leader. Covered 65 points past 4 GWs and it boils down to this:

      MY TEAM

      Guaita
      Robbo TAA Dallas Lindelof
      Bruno Salah Lingard ASM
      Antonio DCL

      Bench: Meslier Zaha Adams Digne

      HIS TEAM (I assume he'll lineup like this as it stands):

      Forster
      TAA Holding Rudiger
      Bruno Salah Son Lingard Greenwood
      Bamford Kane

      Bench: Meslier Strujk Digne Brewster

      Which should I go for:

      1. Bamford in for DCL and no -4
      2. Bamford and Wood in for Adams and DCL -4
      3. Bamford and Greenwood/Raphina in for DCL and Bruno -4
      4. Bamford and Chilwell in for DCL and Digne -4

      Eternally grateful for your responses.

      1. teknicolourfox
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        2 or 3

        1. teknicolourfox
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          If 3, Raph or Harrison, not greenwood

      2. Efan Ekoku Pops
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        2 or 3. I've done similar to 3

      3. Dichio24
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        I would sell DCL for Bamford, and Bruno for a differential. Good luck!

      4. theroadrunner
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Cheers all!

    • RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Kane+Greenwood+Jota >> Bamford+Mané(C)+Raphinha (-4)? Or just DCL+Jota >> Bamford+Raphinha and Captain one of those?

      Chasing a 12pt lead. He has TC.

      Mendy
      TAA. Holding. Rudiger
      Salah. Son. Greenwood. Jota. ASM
      Kane. Antonio
      (Forster. DCL. Digne. Ward)

      1. FPL Pillars
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        The move without the hit mate, cap Salah

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Even if my rival will TC him?

          1. FPL Pillars
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            He’s the best choice, but if you want a chance to win ML makes sense to gamble elsewhere but I wouldn’t take the hit for Kane out Spurs on counter could be good and Kane golden boot still to play for

      2. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        The second one makes more sense.

      3. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        2nd option

      4. teknicolourfox
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        If you're chasing I'd go Harrison over Raph, Raph the popular option but Harrison on his day is better (for me).

    • Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Chances of Patricio starting?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Good chance

    • mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Lost on last page, start Greenwood or ESR?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Greenwood

    • Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Best moves here guys?

      A) Son & DCL -> Mane & Nacho (6.3)
      B) Son & DCL -> Auba & Wood (6.8)
      C) Bale & DCL -> Mount/Lingard/Pepe (7.9) & Vardy

      Meslier
      Trent, Dallas, Coufal
      Salah, Bale, Mahrez, Son
      Bamford, Antonio, DCL

      Pickford, ESR, Digne, Mitchell
      Bank 1.1m, 2FT

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        A

    • tinear
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 8 days ago

      1. Greenwood/Zaha to Raph
      2. 1 + Digne to TAA for -4

      Which one do you think?

    • woodboy76
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Lloris or Forster

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Hugo

    • Egg noodle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      I dreamt that Mendy took a penalty and missed 😮

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Lol

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 8 days ago

        That means you think about fantasy footy or footy too much!

      3. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Hope your dream comes true

    • Gearoid
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      2FT and 0.3 ITB

      Forster
      TAA Stones Dallas
      Salah(c) Lingard Son Mahrez
      Kane DCL Bamford

      Pickford ESR Philips Mitchell

      1. Mahrez and DCL to Raphinha and Antonio
      2. Above plus Philips to Robertson and bench Stones for -4

    • Salarrivederci
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      What would you do here?
      2 FT's and 0.0 ITB

      Areola - Martínez
      TAA - Dallas - Reguilón - Digne - Targett
      Salah - Bruno - Son - Foden - Gundögan
      Richarlison - Iheanacho - Watkins

      A: Bruno + Digne -> Mané & Cresswell for free
      B: Bruno + Reguilón/Digne -> Mané & Rüdiger for free
      C: Bruno + Gündo + DIgne/Reguilón -> Mané + Raphinha + Rüdiger (-4)
      D: Other?

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Bruno Gundogan and richarlison to Mane raphina and bamford/Antonio

        1. Salarrivederci
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          That would result in my having to play Reguilón, Digne OR Target... :/

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Digne, everton are good away and city may play with a weakend team.

            1. Salarrivederci
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 8 days ago

              But I would not bet against City scoring 😉
              Rather avoid the -4 and play Richarlison against a weakened team then.
              Obviously not great owning 2 City players this GW though.

      2. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        A

        1. Salarrivederci
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Aight. You think Cresswell outscores Rüdiger?

          1. PompeyUpNorth!
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Hard to tell obviously but yes as he’s very attacking and they play a much worse team than Villa imo plus are at home which I guess doesn’t make that much difference but is nailed as well

    • PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      So, who to Captain. I’m third in ML, top 2 are over 40 in front and 3rd is 15 in front, 5th only 6 behind. First to 3 votes wins. Team linked.
      A. Salah. Safe pick n should secure 3,4, or 5. Everyone has him.
      B. Raphina 3 and 5 don’t have him
      C. Bamford 3 and 5 don’t have him
      D. Antonio 3 n 5 have him, top 2 don’t
      E. Son only 5th has him
      F. Kane. All have him
      G. Lingard only 3rd has him.

      I’m on A as dont think I’ll get top 2,so May as well try n grab third? Agreed?
      Cheers!

      1. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Probably too long winded to get replies so I’ll stick with Salah I think..

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Wt. .? Too long.

        1. PompeyUpNorth!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Yep I mean what I’ve written prob puts people off as there’s quite a bit to digest. Who knows? I’ll play safe n try to grab third I think unless I get the urge late on and just do Son cause no one above me has him..

    • FPL Pillars
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Are both these upgrades right?
      2FT

      Wood to Bamford
      Areola to Mendy

      Current squad:
      Areola
      TAA Coufal Dallas
      Son Salah Ling Ralph
      Wood Nacho Kane

      Marty Bruno Shaw Mitchell

      Defending lead and he’s got Son Salah Nacho Bamford TAA Dallas Cresswell

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Wood to Bamford is a no for me but makes sense if you covering the lead is your only target.

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          I may have done it last turn but I missed the deadline, annoying as that was ten points swing

    • revelc
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Pogba
      Mount
      Zaha
      Maddy
      Torres

      Which one should I get instead of jota?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Mount

      2. Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        GTG? Wish you all luck, except my ML rivals 😀

        Martinez
        TAA Phillips Rudiger
        Salah Son Raphinha Lingard
        Bamford Kane Watkins

        Sanchez Greenwood Digne Coady

    • Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Best striker to bring in for 6.3m max?

      A) Watkins (CHE)
      B) Nacho (TOT)

      1. Croaker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        B

    • grumpyman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Help! Mahrez, Greenwood, Gundog.

      Start one, bench one, sell one (for Raph).

    • Tinmen
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Lads, need advice on this one please.

      I’m 38 ahead and the guy below me is captaining Bamford.
      I don’t have Bamford tho. Should I get him?

      1. grumpyman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Definitely!

    • popcoin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Who to start and who to bench in what order?

      Christensen
      Holding
      Vydra
      Smith-Rowe
      DCL
      Stones