Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Pro Pundits 7

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ste7ieBoy
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Which sounds the best option?

    A) Wood/DCL -> Bamford/Antonio
    B) Bruno/DCL -> Mane/Bamford or Antonio

    1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Got Wood? Keep.
      B with Bamf

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    3. popcoin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Are you selling Wood because a rival has him? Otherwise definitely keep.

      I’d suggest B out of those. But probably just DCL to Antonio

      1. Ste7ieBoy
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Rival has DCL but not Wood
        Need a differential to overcome 8 pt deficit

    4. ameisin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

      1. ameisin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        With Bamford. Leeds will go nuts today.

  2. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start Jota or Zaha?

    1. popcoin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Jota

      1. Booked4Dissent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 1 day ago

        That’s terrible advice! Jota has a “tiny chance” of playing. Zaha can score against anyone and has got braces at the Emirates before

        1. mynameisq
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          What's he doing at the Emirates though

          1. Booked4Dissent
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Haha damn morning drinking

            1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              I'll take a brace from him at wherever 🙂

        2. popcoin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Sorry, I just back Jota to score if he comes on and plays 25 mins over Zaha against this in-form Liverpool team. If Jota doesn’t play, no problem

  3. popcoin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Who to start and order of bench?

    Christensen
    Holding
    Vydra
    Smith-Rowe
    DCL
    Stones

    1. theroadrunner
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Start: Chritensen Holding Stones
      Bench: Smith Rowe Vydra DCL

    2. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Start Smith-Rowe, Vy and Holding
      Bennch order: DSC

    3. Bedok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Start: Christensen, Holding, Smith-Rowe
      Subs: Vydra, DCL, Stones

    4. popcoin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Thanks all

  4. theroadrunner
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Long post please bear with me. 1 point behind my ML leader. Covered 65 points past 4 GWs and it boils down to this:

    MY TEAM

    Guaita
    Robbo TAA Dallas Lindelof
    Bruno Salah Lingard ASM
    Antonio DCL

    Bench: Meslier Zaha Adams Digne

    HIS TEAM (I assume he'll lineup like this as it stands):

    Forster
    TAA Holding Rudiger
    Bruno Salah Son Lingard Greenwood
    Bamford Kane

    Bench: Meslier Strujk Digne Brewster

    Which should I go for:

    1. Bamford in for DCL and no -4
    2. Bamford and Wood in for Adams and DCL -4
    3. Bamford and Greenwood/Raphina in for DCL and Bruno -4
    4. Bamford and Chilwell in for DCL and Digne -4

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      2. If playing Woods over Bruno.

      1. theroadrunner
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Playing him over Lindelof maybe

    2. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      That's tricky. I feel he trumps you as it stands. I think he will outsmart you and get Mane for Bruno. Why the need for Bruno this week? Can you afford Bruno and DCL out for Mane and Bamford?

      1. Dichio24
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        He already have 3 Liverpool

        1. Tinkermania
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Oops! He is in trouble!

    3. ILOVEBAPS
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      3 with Raphinha

    4. jonnybhoy
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      1

  5. Little Red Lacazette
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    GTG? Wish you all good luck, except my ML rivals 😀

    Martinez
    TAA Phillips Rudiger
    Salah(C) Son Raphinha Lingard
    Bamford Kane Watkins

    Sanchez Greenwood Digne Coady

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      And OR rivals as well 😉

      1. Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Yeah, the OR 1 in my country. Has a 19 point lead!

    2. PascalCygan
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Yes, G2G, GL!

  6. Daniel Jebbison
    • 12 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    is Jota first sub good enough?

    1. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Yup

    2. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I've already sold him

  7. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Digne to Robbo worth a hit?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Considering this too... Leaning yes.

  8. Mr. O'Connell
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Aubameyang is calling to me....

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Remember the story of the Sirens?

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I don't think I can help myself

  9. Original - Wolves Ay We
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Done my transfers, ain't taking no risks after missing the deadline last week. 😀

  10. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start one:

    A) DCL
    B) Greenwood
    C) Digne

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      DCL

    2. BERGKOP
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    3. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Ouch...
      Greenwood edges DCL for me... just

    4. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B just

    5. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Cheers all, Greenwood is edging it then

    6. jonnybhoy
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  11. Ohh1454
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Doubt it’ll matter but start konsa or Targett ?

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Targett

  12. Lionac
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Which two to bring in for a hit?

    A) Mane
    B) Bamford
    C) Antonio

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      BC

  13. Holmes
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Only 3 hours left...

  14. chelseabrad
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    11 pts ahead of my ML rival but he has bench boost

    Meslier
    TAA AWB Coufal
    Salah Son Greenwood Lingard Raph
    Kane Antonio

    (Forster Wood Holding Coleman)

    He has 2 villa def, Dallas, Gundogan, Bruno over Greenwood, Bale over Son, Bamford, DCL & Nacho all of which I don't have...

    A) Meslier > Alisson? Or Castilla?
    B) Meslier & Wood > Alisson/Castilla & Bamford for a -4
    C) Other?

  15. 12steps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Is the ownership page on Livefpl.net live, or based on ownership at the last deadline?

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Last deadline

      1. 12steps
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Thanks

  16. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start

    A Rudi
    B Dallas

    1. Jon Snow
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Tough, Dallas for me

    2. BERGKOP
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    3. Pep bites Kun
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  17. Jon Snow
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Pick one:

    A) ASM
    B) Greenwood

    1. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  18. Pickle juice
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    A. Firminio and torres
    Or
    B. Mane and Nacho

    Thanks

    1. BERGKOP
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B easy

    2. Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    3. JabbaWookiee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    4. Pickle juice
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Cheers guys ..

    5. Pep bites Kun
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  19. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    General consensus on Dias starting? Playing BB and want a full 15. Swap for Azpi/Chilwell/United def?

    A) Keep and hope
    B) Sawp for Azpi
    C) Swap for Chilwell
    D) Swap for someone else

  20. southcoastbeast
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Will bruno start today ?

    If not bruno to mane for a hit ?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Ain't taking the risk, Mane is a good move.

      1. southcoastbeast
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers good luck.

  21. Lucky Z
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Is it worth to wait with my 2FTs until deadline with the hope of leaks?

    1. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I gave in, can concentrate on my captain choice now.

  22. Gizzachance
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Morning all, Thoughts? 1ft, 1.5 itb, good lead in ml leagues just outside 3k

    Mendy
    Taa dallas holding
    Salah c ling son mahrez
    Kane nacho Antonio

    Forster jota• shaw holgate

    Thanks
    Good luck all

  23. Fantasy123456
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I’m 46 points ahead in my ML and just need some advice. My team is…
      Forster
      TAA AWB Holding
      Salah Son JWP Raph Greenwood
      Kane Antonio

      Meslier, Strujik, Burn, Davis

      For a -4 should I
      A) Greenwood to Mane
      B) Davis to Firmino (bench Greenwood)
      C) Davis to Wood (bench Greenwood)
      D) nothing

      1. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        A

      2. Werner Bros
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        A

    • PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      On behalf of my wife..
      Antonio in for free for..

      A. Nacho
      B. Watkins

      Cheers!

      1. Traction Engine Foot
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

      2. BERGKOP
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

      3. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

      4. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

        1. PompeyUpNorth!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Wow! Overwhelming thank you folks...

      5. Werner Bros
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

    • Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Start
      a) Reguilón (lei)
      b) Samedo (MUN)

      1. Traction Engine Foot
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        A

      2. Werner Bros
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        A

    • Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Good to go?

      Henderson
      TAA Digne Dallas
      Salah Lingard Greenwood Raphinha
      Kane Iheanacho Bamford

      Sanchez Pereira Targett Castagne

    • Werner Bros
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Would really appreciate some advice on the following.

      Currently on same points as ML rival and stuck between the following transfer options. Both teams posted below.

      A: Watkins > Bamford
      B: Bruno > Mane
      C: Both for a -4

      My team:
      Mendy
      TAA Dallas Holding
      Salah Bruno Lingard Raph
      Kane Antonio Watkins

      Forster Siggy Coady Veltman

      1FT 1.5ITB

      His team:
      Meslier Forster
      Dallas Digne Robbo Castagne Adarabioyo
      Bruno Greenwood Lingard Son Zaha
      Kane Antonio Bamford

      1. Dichio24
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        You have the strongest team. No hits! Just do B

      2. PascalCygan
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        B

      3. BigAsGiroud_
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I’m thinking exactly the same move. Tempting to do Bruno to Mane, and a little bit worried about Bamford’s time, So just maybe just do B and I will do it as well.

      4. Werner Bros
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Is B so popular because people expect Bruno not to play?

    • StellaMan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Punt on Augy or KDB?

    • Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Can we expect much from Zaha today?

      1. Original - Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Numerous expressions of disbelief and disgust.

      2. mynameisq
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Couple of dives, shouting at the ref, being moody, walking around, and then a yellow card around 85 min mark

        1. mynameisq
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          If we're lucky

      3. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Standard Zaha then. Think you're both right. He can stay on the bench then

    • Gizzachance
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      A Mahrez to Pepe bench jota
      B Jota to raph bench mahrez
      Cheers