Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DoubleBeckerBus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Any thoughts on which of the below is best?

    Reguilon - Dallas
    Bruno - Mane
    DCL - Bamford

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

    2. Yozzer
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

    3. iveseenitall
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

  2. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Bench 1:

    A) Dias
    B) Stones
    C) Holding

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    2. subhojit123
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      C

    3. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    4. iveseenitall
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    5. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Cheers, benching Dias then.

    6. mynameisq
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Why would you bench Dias, high chance of CS if he starts and v unlikely to come off the bench if he doesn't

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        2 city defs hurt me last week

        1. mynameisq
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 4 days ago

          Fair

  3. Gerhardinho
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Please help!

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Question?

      1. Gerhardinho
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Something wrong with my phone..

        My Question
        Chilwell, Tierney or Cresswell for Shaw??
        And should i do -4
        Bruno->Mané?
        1sub Rowe

  4. Traction Engine Foot
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Any updates on Matheus Pereira?

  5. Aurora Borealis?
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    My rival has Charlizard and Ivysaur, should I captain Blastoise and use Hydro pump (risk of blanking) or transfer him out for Pikachu who has better typing?

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Definitely use the troll 🙂

    2. RedWolf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      If you're chasing, Squirtle (c)

    3. Weilong7
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Get mewtwo in

  6. Mr Ozil
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Repost:

    Which is better?

    A- DCL > Antonio (play Vydra/Zaha)
    B- Zaha > Lingard (play DCL)

    1. subhojit123
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    3. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

    4. Bob.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    5. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    6. PascalCygan
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

  7. subhojit123
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Repost -
    Guys who do u think starts for Chelsea today -
    1. Chilwell
    2. Alonso

    1. chelseabrad
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Chilwell

      1. subhojit123
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        thanks

      2. Skloppy Kops
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Sure?

  8. BERGKOP
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Bottomed. My apologies.

    TAA or Robbo for a hit? If I get Robbo, it covers my rival who is 18pts behind.

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      No

      1. BERGKOP
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Thanks.

  9. chelseabrad
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    11 pts ahead of my ML rival but he has bench boost

    Meslier
    TAA AWB Coufal
    Salah Son Greenwood Lingard Raph
    Kane Antonio

    (Forster Wood Holding Coleman)

    He has 2 villa def, Dallas, Gundogan, Bruno over Greenwood, Bale over Son, Bamford, DCL & Nacho all of which I don't have...

    Obviously need to take Meslier out, would you cover Dallas with Castilla or take a risk and double up on LIV def and go Alisson? Got 2.4 itb so if I go Castilla I'd be tempted to spend the extra 3m and take a hit but is that stupid when I'm just ahead?

    (4)

  10. iveseenitall
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Do we think chilwell starts?

    1. Daniel Jebbison
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      yes imo

      1. iveseenitall
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers

  11. Yozzer
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    What is Willock like ? Not seen him play much. Worth a punt or go with Harrison ( can't afford Raphinha)

    1. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Willock for me

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Personally not a fan but he keeps scoring

  12. AW127
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Start Kane or DCL?
    Or transfer one to Bamford for a -4?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Thank you

    2. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers

    3. iveseenitall
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Thanks

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane for sure

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Yes, maybe it was a stupid question!

    5. Tinkermania
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Bamford

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Interesting. Most people seem to say Kane. I suppose it depends on how much better I think Bamford will do

  13. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    One last hoorah, Aguero (C)

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      love it

    2. Daniel Jebbison
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      not for me

    3. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      No

    4. Pep bites Kun
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Good on ya! Hope he fires in plenty

    5. onceuponatyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Genuinely just did this. Fully expecting to be disspointed, but I'm 30pts behind in my league and it'd take a miracle. Maybe this it.

    6. AW127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Definitely not. He won't even start

      1. Tinkermania
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Explain AW127 please.

        1. AW127
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 4 days ago

          I don't think he's going to start. I feel as though he'll be subbed on at 60 mins. Even if he does start he'll be subbed at 60 mins. As well as this, Everton have the best defensive form in the league, are better away from home, and need a result to get Europe. The game won't be easy.

  14. Daniel Jebbison
    • 12 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    "I feel good, I was lucky it was only a small injury" - Kai Havertz

    Interesting punt

    1. Daniel Jebbison
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      I wonder why this is not in the FFS tweets

      1. Tinkermania
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Maybe because it's only Kai

  15. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Mendy
    TAA Robertson Dallas
    Salah(c) Raphinha Mahrez Greenwood Lingard
    Kane Bamford

    Forster Holding DCL Coady

    Level on points at top of ML, anything worth taking a hit for? Or gtg?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      You're gtg. No hits.

  16. Dirty_Harry
    • 12 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Who would you rather as a differential?

    1. Torres
    2. Wood
    3. Pepe
    4. Bamford (but have Raph/Dallas and seems boring pick)

    1. Hits from the Bong
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      4 but he’s surely he’s not a differential

      1. Dirty_Harry
        • 12 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        My mini league he isn't lol

    2. iveseenitall
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      4 and a decent captain option if your chasing

    3. AW127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      1. I love that Torres punt

  17. Hits from the Bong
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Is it possible to climb 15,000 places to 50k if going with the same captain (Salah) as everyone else?

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      I'm fully expecting to fall 15k places to 50k with my team today. So you could still do it.

    2. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Depends how template the rest of your team is.

    3. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      It's only 15pts, if you have 4-5 differentials, it should be possible without captaincy risk

    4. DF
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      No

    5. Hits from the Bong
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Thinking Antonio at the minute, as my team is pretty template..

      Areola
      TAA Robertson Dallas
      Salah Son Torres Lingard
      Kane Antonio Bamford

      Forster Bale Mitchell Johnson

  18. yanky
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    who scores more?
    a) Digne + 4
    b) Robertson

    1. Vazza
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A for me as I’m a dullard

    2. Dirty_Harry
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B sounds more fun

  19. Vazza
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    More points

    A) Alioski (WBA)
    B) Lowton (shu)

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    2. Skloppy Kops
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

  20. how now brown cow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Arsenal have only won 2 out of 7 PL games v Brighton. A bit surprising.

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Auba loves to score final gameweek tho

    2. Arteta
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Potter is clearly using his best spells against us.

  21. Jukes
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Whose more likely to play - Jota or Peirera?

  22. n14mul
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Morning
    So what are the chances of foden or mahrez starting?

  23. cheeky moses
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Bruno, sell or hold?
    Got 1ft.
    If sell, who to bring in of:
    A) kdb
    B) ferran
    C) foden
    D) willock

    1. iveseenitall
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Sell and A

      1. cheeky moses
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers

  24. Bavarian
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    The armband keeps rolling between:
    TAA
    Bamford
    Kane
    Antonio

    Please help, I need a differential C

    1. n14mul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Taa or bamf

      1. Bavarian
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        I believe it's better to (C) TAA because no one owns him

        1. n14mul
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 4 days ago

          Atleast 25% ownership

          1. Bavarian
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 4 days ago

            I mean in my ML

  25. RedJive79
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Bench Lingz or Greenwood?? Rival has Lingz....

    1. Skloppy Kops
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Lindz

  26. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Best captain? Chasing 14 points and my rival has Antonio and Kane.

    Alisson
    TAA | Rudiger | Dallas
    Salah | Lingard | Foden | Greenwood
    Antonio | Kane | Nacho

    GK: Martinez | Zaha | Digne | Veltman

    1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Hoping he doesn't bring in Salah, but he already has Mane

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      I'd cap Salah. 14 points can swing through your differentials alone if you have enough of them.

  27. TAT
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Bottomed. I’m really struggling with what to do about my team for GW 38. I got 3.7 in the bank, and one FT. Moves I’m considering are Pickford to another GK, Davis to Bamford (benching Lingard), and Son to Many. Thoughts?

    Pickford
    TAA - Shaw - Dallas
    Lingard - Salah - Raphinha - Greenwood - Son
    Antonio - Kane
    (Button - Dias - Holgate - Davis)

  28. Catona75
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Chelseafans, what do you think will be tidas starting backline?

    1. Catona75
      4 months, 4 days ago

      «todays»

  29. ZEZIMA
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Double up Liverpool with Robbo and TAA, or get Dallas instead of TAA?

  30. Skloppy Kops
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Any leaks yet?