Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Party time
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Aubameyang, get that hatty mon frére

      1. Party time
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Top post btw

        • Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Big feast needed today before summer hibernation

          1. Party time
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Yeah. One more feast

          2. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Imagine if he does!! I hope for Arsenal fans that he does.

        • Vazza
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Who to bring in for Veltman

          A. Charlie Taylor vs shu
          B. Lowton vs shu
          C. Alioski vs WBA
          D. Ayling vs WBA
          E. Someone else (up to 4.4m).

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            C for me

            1. BremerHB
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              C out of that lot.

          2. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            C, B, D, A

        • Abraham & Cheese
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Bottomed: Getting James Rodriguez on my wildcard 3 weeks back was an absolute FAIL! But alas, he can redeem himself by making room for a player that strives to earn more than 0 points. But who??

          1. Mount
          2. Pepe
          3. Raphinha
          4. Foden

          1. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Raphinha

          2. Boz
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            3

        • Dark Side Of The Loon!
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Expected Chelsea lineup? Do we think Havertz starts? Anyone nailed on apart from Mount?

          1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            will be a strong team, they need to win. Havertz is not guaranteed but if he does start likely to play up front. if he doesn't werner might and pulisic on the wing

            1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Need to get a Bruno replacement but only have 11.1 to spare. Have Son, Lingard already. Thinking a Chelsea mid might be good but undecided. Pep, Harrison the other options.

          2. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Too much uncertainty for me. If I knew Havertz would start he’d be my punt for this week.

            1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Yes. That injury came at the wrong time.

          3. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Chelsea fan.... I hope so but have no idea. Timo was playing well for Tuchel as the #9 last few games, but with the CL final coming up it's hard to know Tuchel's plans. For Tuchel Roulette, I think the only players that are safe are Mendy, Ruediger + Mount. Tuchel's other favourite players might be rested for the CL final instead.

            If there is a lineup leak mentioning Havertz, I'm going to jump on that too, otherwise it's Mount for me.

            1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Yes. Think Mount is more nailed on than the other mids. But the issue with him is he is the least likely to be explosive.

              1. Abraham & Cheese
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Yeah his starts are far from convincing. Pepe looks more impressive in his form, whereas Mount usually gets the assist to the assist or plays well with no points to show for it.

                The reason I may punt on Mount over Pepe is his heart/drive in games that matter. He wears his heart on his sleeve and will be giving it everything tonight to get chelsea qualified next season.

                1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Thats a good point.

        • Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Ings > Bobby -4? Start but won’t cap

          1. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Is Ings injured? If so and no decent bench option, sure. Otherwise I’d back Ings to score against West Ham.

          2. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I don't think it's worth a -4 unless you're 100% certain that Ings won't play at all.

        • BremerHB
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          A) Watkins -> Antonio
          B) Watkins -> Wood
          C) Play Watkins
          D) Greenwood -> Willock
          E) Play Greenwood

          1. corderz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            A

          2. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I'm playing him. He has been a goal deliverer for me this season and even against Chelsea I can see him scoring 1 or 2
            !

            1. BremerHB
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              He’s been super consistent. You’re not wrong. Though Chelsea is a different beast!
              I might end up not being able to make a decision and leaving him in.

        • No Kane, No Gain!
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          GTG?

          Mendy
          Alioski, Dallas TAA
          Salah (c) Lingard, Son, Torres, Mane (v)
          Kane, Iheanacho
          (Martinez, Ayling, AWB, Vydra)

          1. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Torres pick too uncertain for my liking - defending MLs. Otherwise gtg!

        • PepSala
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Any chance kepa makes an appearance over mendy?

          1. Ohh1454
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Doubt it

          2. Tonyawesome69
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Not when top 4 isn't secure and Mendy will play UCL final

          3. Grimlock
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Ha yeh there's a chance 20pc ??
            What manager even rotates the keeper!

          4. Abraham & Cheese
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            If it was up to Kepa he would.

        • Riggs
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Mendy
          TAA Dallas Coufal
          Salah Son Lingard Raphina
          Kane Bamford Antonio

          Subs - Forster Bruno Holding Mitchell
          0.1 ITB

          What transfer would you suggest me?

          1. Ohh1454
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            That team is very strong I don’t really see a move tbh maybe son to someone but he could haul

          2. corderz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            No transfer required there

          3. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I’d probably stick, as boring as it is!

            1. Riggs
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              So, to burn the last transfer of the season 🙂

          4. beric
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I would do bruno to mane and bench one of lingard, son or raphinia

            1. Riggs
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              I have thought about that, but unfortunately I don't have the money for direct swap 🙁

        • Ohh1454
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Any chance shaw starts today ?

          1. Boz
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            1%

          2. Tonyawesome69
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Highly unlikely when Telles can play

          3. waldo666
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Slim to none, imo.

          4. el polako
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Chances slimmer than Levy's transfers funds.

        • buttsy9
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Meslier,
          Coufal, Castagne, Dallas,
          Son, Salah, Lingard, Jota,
          DCL, Bamford, Kane

          50pts behind in one ML a a 40 ahead in another. Two FT’s.

          Looking for two most explosive players for this gameweek???

          1. Dog and Fox
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Pepe and pick a city player

        • Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          RP - Who would you prioritise to get in with your 1FT?

          A. Bruno to Mane
          B. Davis to Bamford

          1FT 3.2ITB
          Mendy
          TAA Dallas Rudiger
          Salah Bruno Lingard Raphinha Greenwood
          Kane Antonio
          (Forster Shaw Holding Davis)

          1. jimbobmij
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Mane, Bamford may be subbed early and Mane is looking better lately.

            1. Vertigo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Why would they sub Bamford?

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Bamford won't play full game if rodrigo is on the bench

            2. Dog and Fox
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Bam plays 60 mins and gets 2 goals... Enough for me

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Interesting. Would you bring in Mane for a hit?

                1. Dog and Fox
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Firmino more tempting

                  1. Tonyawesome69
                    • 2 Years
                    2 months, 1 day ago

                    Can't drop Antonio or Kane for hit

                    1. Dog and Fox
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 1 day ago

                      Bruno -> Mane could backfire. Ifølge Bruno plays 45 mins and does something (pen, lucky ass...) Mane has to score more than just one

        • jimbobmij
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I have quite a benching dilemma for my draft team.

          Who do you bench from the following:

          A) Rodrigo

          B) Hernandez

          C) Bale

          D) Gabriel

          1. BremerHB
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            D or B

        • Dog and Fox
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Last question of the season, may be importrant, so please help:

          Jota or Digne first on bench??

          Thanks and good luck to you all

          1. Belli2007
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Have I missed something, I thought Jota was injured and out for remainder of season?

            1. Dog and Fox
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              In training yesterday, so 50/50

          2. jimbobmij
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I don't see Digne doing much of anything, so may as well put Jota first.

        • MoSalalalalalalalalah
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Any changes I can make or should I change my GK? Trying to maximise my points in my ML chase. Already done Cavani to Nacho

          Forster
          TAA | Rudiger | Dallas
          Salah | Lingard | Foden | Greenwood
          Antonio | Kane | Nacho

          GK: Martinez | Zaha | Digne | Veltman

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Start Martinez

            1. BIG TONES
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              This.

        • corderz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Transfer suggestions? 2FT's £1m

          Mendy Forster
          TAA Reguilion Shaw Holding Phillips
          Salah Son Mahrez Greenwood Lingard
          Kane DCL Antonio

          1. Life_Ban
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Shaw is prob the main one to ditch for Dallas

          2. Party time
              2 months, 1 day ago

              For anyone with Robbo, Trent, Salah & Bruno. You could ditch Bruno for Auba, he has pens & 2-3 goals likely today, I think

              1. Grimlock
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                I trust auba. Not arteta, maybe subed or not start

            • HD7
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Why do people think that Bamford wont play a lot in the last game?

              Im between him, Antonio or Pepe for the Captaincy

              1. Grimlock
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Been super off a lot recently. Last game he did start both bam and rodrigo.... could work out but is risky.
                If going risky I'd go Antonio

            • GOTHAM City F.C.
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              What time till mass hysteria over fake leaks?

              1. The Ilfordian
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                What are we expecting? Ole plays full squad? Aguero starts? Bamford benched? Kane injured? Brewster haul expected?

                1. BremerHB
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Brewster hauling would tip so many people here over the edge!

                2. el polako
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Werner scores hattrick to mess with out heads before next season.

            • kinghenry14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              who scores more in your opinion?

              A) bamford
              B) iheanacho

              cheers!

              1. waldo666
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                A

              2. BIG TONES
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Probably Bamford, but are you chasing or blocking?

                1. kinghenry14
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  winning ML by a mile, so just going after highest possible OR, at 8k rn

            • Abaddon
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              A) Mane and Holding or
              B) Son and Robbo

              Thinking b for sure. But so many buying Mane

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                In isolation I prefer Mane over Son but in this combo then probably B

            • corderz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Who's most likely to start:

              A) Mahrez
              B) Greenwood

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                B

              2. BIG TONES
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Both 50 to 75% (uncertain) tbh

            • klopp2567
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 1 day ago

              thanks to getting willock in ML. This is last chance to reduce the gap and come on top and i am hopeful of that.
              With my team as below
              Martinez
              Digne Taa AWB Dallas Konsa
              Bruno Son Willock Lingard Green wood
              wood DCl Bamford

              and opponents team being
              Martinez
              Coufal Taa Dallas Lowton Veltman
              Bruno Son Salah Raphina Harrison
              Nacho Ings watkins

              I am thinking of -4 and getting Salah and Antonio or Salah and robertson in place of Bruno and wood or Bruno and Awb.
              Any tips plz need huge help here.

              1. Boz
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Would just get Salah if you can

              2. Grimlock
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Loads of differences. How bigs the gap?
                Prob he goes Bruno to mane. That seems to be the popular choice.

                Yeh prob get Salah c and block that , whilst hope willow comes good again

                1. klopp2567
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  it was 32 and its 12 noww and after -4 it will be 16

            • Boz
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Would you take a hit for Shaw to Coufal? Or play Ward and pray

            • BIG TONES
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Ferran Torres punters - raise your hands!!

              1. AC/DC AFC
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Good luck

                1. BIG TONES
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Thanks! I think there's a good chance he gets a run in this dead rubber and he more or less always returns when he starts!

            • SomeoneKnows
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Martinez (Forster)
              TAA, Dallas, Coufal (Shaw* Coleman*)
              Salah, Son, Lingard, Greenwood* (Jota*)
              Kane, Wood (DCL)

              Final decision that will define my cash mini league fate as I'm tied at first with 2 others

              A) Jota > Harrison
              B) Jota > Raphinha
              C) DCL > Bamford
              D) DCL > Antonio

              1. Crashjct
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                C

              2. MightyGar
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  A or B, probably B

              3. HD7
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Bamford Antonio or Pepe as C and why, mates?

              4. Fantasy123456
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Who is the better pick this week. Mane or Raph?

                  1. HD7
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 1 day ago

                    Its really 50/50 again mate

                  2. BremerHB
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 1 day ago

                    Very different price categories. I’d go Mane if I had Dallas & Bamford/Harrison.

                • Mr Ozil
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Which is better?

                  A- DCL > Antonio (play Vydra/Zaha)
                  B- Zaha > Lingard (play DCL)

                • Crashjct
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 1 day ago

                  Hello all.

                  Rank transfer options best to worst.:

                  A. Bruno to Son
                  B. Bruno to Pepe
                  C. Bruno to Willock
                  D. Shaw to Tierney