Spot the Differential

Firmino has timed resurgent FPL form to be useful Gameweek 38 differential

Gameweek 38 offers FPL managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Roberto Firmino

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £9.1m
  • GW38 fixture: CRY

With three goals and an assist in his last four appearances, Roberto Firmino (£9.1m) is an intriguing final day differential.

The Brazilian has had a disappointing campaign by his standards, with his place in Jürgen Klopp’s starting XI threatened by the impact of Diogo Jota (£6.9m). However, he has finally found some form at the business end of the season.

Firmino fed Thiago (£5.5m) to seal Liverpool’s 2-0 victory against Southampton back in Gameweek 34, and has since followed that up with a brace of goals at Manchester United, a part in the equaliser at West Bromwich Albion, plus Wednesday’s opener at Burnley. During that time, he has acquired 27 FPL points, and now sits level alongside Sadio Mané (£11.8m) and Jota on nine Premier League goals, with only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) scoring more for the Reds.

For a player who contributes so much to Liverpool’s all-round game, it does perhaps seem unfair to criticise him, but purely in FPL terms, he has struggled. In fact, prior to Gameweek 35, he had scored just one goal since Gameweek 14. Despite that, his numbers throughout the season have generally remained good, only his finishing has let him down, which is backed up by his negative 2.62 expected goals (xG) delta. However, such is the impact of confidence and goals on centre-forwards, that total has jumped to +1.77 over the last four Gameweeks.

Barring a huge Leicester City win over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, victory at home against Crystal Palace will be enough for Liverpool to secure a top-four finish, and as a result, qualify for next seasons Champions League. With a run of seven wins and two draws in their last nine Premier League matches, it looks like they have got their act together at exactly the right moment, and with Firmino full of confidence, could be set for a big finish.

Nicolas Pépé

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW38 fixture: BHA

Nicolas Pépé (£7.7m) has been in fine form of late, and is starting to show his quality following his £72m transfer from Lille back in 2019.

It would be fair to say it has taken the 25-year-old a fair bit of time to get going, but with 13 goal involvements in all competitions in 2021, which included a brace against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37, he is now starting to produce more consistently.

The Ivorian winger’s first on Wednesday night, a lovely cushioned volley after great link-up play between Kieran Tierney (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£5.1m), set Arsenal on their way, while his second late on was a fine solo effort. He ended the match with 55 final-third touches, more than any other player, and was comfortably the best performer on the pitch.  

Those who have been paying attention will know his numbers have been good for a while, though. 

Since the turn of the year, amongst team-mates, he ranks top for penalty area touches and goal attempts in the box, second for shots on target and third for xG. In fact, amongst all midfielders who have played a substantial number of minutes, only Liverpool trio Jota, Salah and Mané, plus Mason Greenwood (£7.3m) and Kai Havertz (£8.3m), can better his 2.29 shots in the box per 90 minutes total. 

The Gunners’ square off against Brighton and Hove Albion in their last Premier League game of the season on Sunday, knowing victory, coupled with rivals Spurs’ and Everton dropping points, would see them finish seventh, and as a result secure a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League competition.

Pepe has impressed for Arsenal in 2021, and now showing increased consistency and more end-product, could be an effective midfield differential for the final-day.

Saïd Benrahma

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW38 fixture: SOU

Saïd Benrahma (£5.9m) has been something of a bit-part player at West Ham United this season, but has now produced attacking returns in three of his last four appearances.

The unpredictable Algerian has supplied assists against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and also found the back of the net at Brighton with a superb curling finish from the edge of the area.

His attacking numbers during that time have caught the eye, too.

Over the last four Gameweeks, he ranks top amongst team-mates for expected assists (xA), second for chances created and joint-third for shots on target. Meanwhile, amongst all Premier League players who have featured for over 100 minutes during that period, only Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) can trump his 0.45 xA per 90 minutes.

However, the real appeal lies in this weekend’s opponents, Southampton. 

As noted by Neale earlier this week, Benrahma has spent a lot of time on the right-flank over the last two matches, and it was from this position that he assisted against West Brom. And if stationed on that side on Sunday, he’ll be up against a Saints team who have conceded the second-highest number of chances from their left over the last six games – a period that has coincided with Ryan Bertrand’s (£5.0m) unavailability and the deployment of centre-halves Mohammed Salisu (£4.3m) and Jack Stephens (£4.6m) as make-shift left-backs.

Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the Hammers, either, as a single point in Gameweek 38 will be enough for them to seal a place in next seasons Europa League.

Benrahma is a real difference-maker, and could be an explosive mid-price punt for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

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1,336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bart82
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Lead 25 in my ML. Opponent have Kane and Greenwood.

    DCL-Watkins-Bruno to Kane-Bamford-Raph for -4 worth it?

    Alisson
    TAA-Dallas-Digne (Shaw-Veltman)
    Salah-Bruno-Son-Lingard (JWP)
    Antonio-DCL-Watkins

    1. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes to Kane. It is hard to get 20 + points, but Kane could hurt you like that

      1. Bart82
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 4 days ago

        thnx!!

    2. Weeb Kakashi
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes worth it. Very much. If he doesn't have Bam and Raph then i see the lead going beyond 21.

      1. Bart82
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 4 days ago

        thanks

    3. Bedok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Not a bad -4. If you have 2 FTs, and you just want to maintain the lead, why not Bruno to Greenwood and DCL to Kane? Money issue? Surely just Bruno to Greenwood and no hit would do the job assuming Kane & Greenwood are the only differences. I don't see Kane scoring five goals.

  2. RamboRN
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Start coufal or rudiger

    1. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Coufal

      1. The Big Fella
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        How come? Chelsea & Liverpool best bookie odds for a CS

    2. artvandelay316
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Rudiger

    3. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Coufal

      1. The Big Fella
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Why not Rudiger? Chelsea & Liverpool best bookie odds for a CS

    4. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Rudiger

    5. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Coufal

  3. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Mendy
    TAA, Shaw, Holding
    Salah(c), greenwood, Bruno, lingard, Raphina
    Kane, Iheanacho

    Forster, Rudiger, Coady, Davis

    1ft £2.4m itb

    Davis > Bamford

    Then bench who?

    Anything worth a -4 here?

    1. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      3 united players may all not start - may set who is on your bench automatically so may want to transfer one out?

  4. Shark Team
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Harry Kane or Chris Wood?

    1. aborg
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane. He will be trying to get as much goals as he can for Golden Boot

    2. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Harry

    4. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Kane

  5. aborg
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Anyone thinks that Stones will play? If yes should I play him ahead of Watkins?

    1. Shark Team
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      I think Villa will score and the fact that Everton always scores 1 goal at the Etihad i would suggest you to start Watkins

      1. aborg
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers.

  6. Bonus magnet
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    team not too bad
    should I
    a. do 3 transfers (-4) and bench boost
    b. wildcard

    1. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Depends on your team. Wildcard > Bench boost and -4 in my opinion as no need to spread funds around.

  7. ptr88
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Play Areola or Martinez?

  8. Espanyolie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Wood or Antonio for DCL? Already have Lingard. Chasing 13 pts in ML if relevant

    1. Tomsk
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Antonio if your opponent doesn’t have him(assuming it’s a free transfer).

  9. Vovhund
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Any chances of leaked lineups before deadline?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      44.89%

  10. PepSala
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Leading my mini league by 5 pts, would you change anything here? 1M itb

    Martínez
    TAA Dallas Coufal
    Son Salah Lingard Raph
    Antonio Kane Bamford

    Button Greenwood Digne Mitchell

    1. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      G2G
      You might consider playing Greenwood over Lingard - I'll be playing Lingard

    2. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Good outfield lineup - use money and final transfer to upgrade goalkeeper? Mendy perhaps?

  11. artvandelay316
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Current midfield:
    Salah, Lingard, Torres, Greenwood (Bruno on bench)

    Worth taking a -4 to replace Bruno with Pepe or Mount, then playing in place of Greenwood?

    I'm 100 points clear in ML so just playing around to see if I can raise my national rank.

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yeah you're in a great position to play as you feel.

      Take the hit on Pepe if you feel he will return

      1. artvandelay316
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers, I've done it.

    2. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      An architect like you should know better, Mr. Vandelay

      1. artvandelay316
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Haha, I may have to return to importing/exporting of latex at this rate!

  12. House Frey Wedding Planner
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Final check to ensure team and bench order is good to go?

    Martinez
    Phillips, Dias, Dallas
    Salah(c), Son, Mane, Lingard
    Kane, Bamford, Antonio

    ESR, Rudiger, Shaw

    1. artvandelay316
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Looks good!

  13. sergioaguero67
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Aguero injured?

    Thinking of giving him the armband just because I have no hopes of winning my mini league
    And well, this is the last time he would be in my FPL team EVER! :'(

  14. Bavarian
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Who to captain, if chasing?
    A-Salah
    B-Bamford
    C-Antonio
    D-TAA
    E-Kane
    F-Son

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      C or D

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A if Holding, B if chasing

    3. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

    4. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      One that your rival does not have

      1. Bavarian
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        I'm pretty sure, all will C Salah

        1. bjarnia87
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 4 days ago

          Then i would do Kane. He can easily provide 20 points.
          Antonio if u need more differential

          1. Bavarian
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 4 days ago

            Thanks mate and All

  15. Bubz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    What is the likelihood of early lineup news for teams like City? Do we have a good source?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Aguero is in matchday squad, that's all i know atm.
      Monitor around deadline and hope for the best.

  16. Traction Engine Foot
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Should I play Digne or take a -4 to get Robertson?

    1. Ch0udini
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Digne. Chance of an attacking return to high to justify a hit.

    2. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      tough one - where is the fun in dullard. take a hit!

    3. chrislt4
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Same dilemma here. I’m leading mini league by 4 points so it’s a very tough decision

  17. Ch0udini
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Forster (Meslier)
    TAA Holding Coady Reguillon (Fofana)
    Salah (C) Bruno Son ASM (Zaha)
    Antonio DCL (Welbeck)

    1FT, 2,6 ITB

    Bruno, Welbeck ->Mane, Bamford worth -4?
    Or any other thoughts?

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes, worth the hit

  18. Muscout
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    25 points ahead in ML

    A) DCL to Bamf
    B) DCL to Nacho (rival has him)

    1. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      a

    2. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

    3. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      A

  19. Fernando Torres
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Digne or Konsa?

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Digne

    2. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      K

  20. chrislt4
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    4 points ahead in ML.

    Should I Shaw > Robertson -4 ?

    Rival has Shaw also

    1. chrislt4
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      *have digne as first sub

  21. AzzaroMax99
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Already on -8. Got Mane, Bamford and Holding.
    Should I do also Son to Pepe for -12 or keep mu hands down xD
    Leading ML but with only 1 point over my rival.

    Martinez
    Taa Holding Dallas
    SalahC Mane Son Harrison
    Kane Bamford Antonio

    Steer Pereira* Aina Saiss

    1. AzzaroMax99
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      He is probably on -12 or even -16 for now xD

    2. RamboRN
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Lots of hits, why you both make lots of hits?

      1. AzzaroMax99
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Not happy with my squad is the main reason. Also end of the season. When is the time for experiments if not now xD

  22. Chandler Bing
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Thoughts on Rodrigo?

    1. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Good name for a boy, less so for a girl.

    2. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      I'd definitely get him but he got no love here over fplscout

    3. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      2pts

  23. JollyGoodYellows
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Morning all. 3 points ahead in my ML. How does this look? Is it worth a hit to do DCL > Antonio?

    Mendy
    TAA Holding Dallas
    Salah Mane Lingard Raphinha
    Bamford Kane DCL

    Forster Lowton Ward-Prowse Shaw

    1. RamboRN
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Has he got Antonio?

      1. JollyGoodYellows
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Not unless he brings him in today.

    2. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Not for a hit. DCL can score against anyone

    3. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Nah. Just the hit will send u to 2nd place. I would stay cool

  24. ZAMUNDA
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Pépé or Mount instead of Bruno

    1. Emah3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Mount, will definitely play and higher chance of involvement and staying on pitch I think.

    2. AzzaroMax99
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Get Pepe

  25. Salan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Is it mad to play Auba? Will he start? Any Arsenal fans can help? Thanks.

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      If i had him i would start.

  26. RamboRN
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Mendy
    TAA Phillips coufal
    Salah raphina lingard son
    Kane Antonio bamford

    Subs forster, regulion, rudiger, greenwood.
    If we hear that greenwood is starting would you play him over anyone?

  27. MrJobby
    4 months, 4 days ago

    I’m 36 points ahead of ML rival .
    Martinez, Sanchez, Dallas , Phillips ,Digne shaw ,amartey
    Bruno, son , greenwood , gundogen , salah
    Bamford , kane , Keinan Davies

    I have a big concern a few of those players won’t start but I know he has a similar issue . Is it worth a 8 point hit as I’m sure he will need to take at least a 4 point hit also .

    My thoughts are Bruno > lingard
    amartey > Taa

    Then maybe Gund for Harrison raph

    1. The Point About It Is
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      36 points is big - have some fun

      1. MrJobby
        4 months, 4 days ago

        Yeah I think your right , I’m pretty sure if choose salah as captain and stick Trent in there along with a lingaard or Harrison and the rest of team is quite similar to his I think it’ll be ok .

  28. Mr. Mystic
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Who to bring in?
    A) Coufal
    B) Cresswell
    C) Tark

    1. beetlejuice
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      B

    2. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Dallas?

  29. beetlejuice
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    How many minutes do you expect from Mahrez and Vydra?

  30. rdpx
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 4 days ago

    Is it worth -4 to get:

    Salah, Wood, Willock

    Replacing: Son, Jota, DCL ?

    & benching Greenwood

    1. artvandelay316
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes

    2. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes

    3. ZAMUNDA
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 4 days ago

      Yes