Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 38

The end of the most unusual season is upon us, and with it comes the final opportunity to climb the ranks or claim mini-league glory.

The usual mix of dead-rubbers and motivated teams is slightly diluted this season with the title and relegation places settled ahead of time, but the battle for the top four and the remaining European spots remains wide open.

And Gameweek 38 has a reputation for the unexpected. 

Take Theo Walcott’s 34-minute hat-trick against West Bromwich Albion at the end of the 2014/15 campaign, or the ten goals shared equally between the Baggies and Manchester United in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last game in charge.

This year, West Brom could be involved in another high-scoring affair when they visit a fan-filled Elland Road. The Leeds United faithful celebrating not only their first season back in the Premier League for 17 years but also their Championship victory from 10 months ago.

With the cricket season already underway, could we see a cricket score in the football?

The last round of matches all kick-off simultaneously, as is tradition on the final day of the season, handing us a Sunday deadline of 14:30 BST.

Celebration and Motivation

Just as they did in midweek, the home sides will benefit from playing in front of their supporters. Although, as Spurs discovered against Aston Villa, a poor performance can quickly change the mood. Boos ringing out at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium before half-time. 

But with Marcelo Bielsa’s side finishing the season strongly, Leeds United are not expected to suffer the same fate. 

Hotly tipped by Zophar, the Pro Pundit is backing Patrick Bamford (£6.6m) and co to push him towards his eighth top 10,000 finish. The combination of in-form striker against porous defence appeals:

Bamford tops the xG non-penalty numbers (1.73) for Leeds over the last four matches and has landed at least double the number of shots on target (six) compared to any other Leeds player. West Brom have conceded a massive 50 shots on target over the last six Gameweeks; that’s an average of over eight a game!

When selecting his shortlist of favoured armband candidates, Captain Sensible writer Jan put Bamford in third.

The Whites have only lost one of their last eight matches at Elland Road and put five goals past Sam Allardyce’s men the last time the two sides met. Since then, the Baggies’ fortunes have not changed, conceding at least two goals in six of their last eight league outings.

There was, however, a word of caution voiced for those considering Bamford.

Neale, the doyen of the team news, warned of reduced minutes for several of the Leeds contingent due to farewell appearances for long-serving players Gaetano Berardi (£4.0m) and Pablo Hernandez (£5.7m). 

I would not be shocked if [Bamford] got 60 or 70 minutes.

– Neale

Nonetheless three of Bielsa’s men are selected in the final Scout Picks of the season. 

The known absentees for the Whites are Illan Meslier (£4.8m) in goal, Mateusz Klich (£5.2m) and Diego Llorente (£4.4m). Meslier missing out has left many managers contemplating a hit for a goalkeeper, something Neale advised against, even if it meant going with ten men.

Across the Pennines, Manchester City’s line-up is, as ever, hard to predict. And this weekend they are joined in that respect by their local rivals Manchester United, who play in the Europa League final on Wednesday. 

Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer promised to “make a few changes” with Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m) among those not guaranteed a starting spot.

Going for Gold

All this means that Liverpool offer the best captain options. 

Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) and Sadio Mané (£11.8m) are not only Jan’s top picks but also those of Tom and Andy among our four Scout Picks selectors. 

Ahead of facing a side he scored 16 points against earlier in the season, Mohamed Salah is top among all midfielders for expected goal involvement (xGI) over the last four matches. Just two players have more shots in the box than him over the last six, suggesting he will be giving his all to win the Golden Boot race on Sunday.

– Scout Picks

And our Big Numbers article pointed to an encouraging statistic for Mané owners.

Seven – the number of consecutive Premier League games that Sadio Mané has scored in against Crystal Palace. In the league’s history, only Robin van Persie (against Stoke City) has scored in eight consecutive matches against an opponent.

– Big Numbers

What’s more, Liverpool need to win to ensure Champions League football for next season.

The Reds are currently level on points with Leicester City but are above them in the table thanks to their superior goal difference. However, a big win for the Foxes by five goals or more would put real pressure on on Jurgen Klopp’s side.

An unlikely scenario, perhaps, but Liverpool may want to bag a few goals against Crystal Palace just to be on the safe side.

And the Eagles have an abysmal record against their hosts, having lost their last seven matches against them by an aggregate score of 22 goals to five.

The one spanner in the works could be that this is Roy Hodgson’s final game in charge. 

Part of me thinks they are going to be right up for this and I don’t think they are going to roll over.

– David, Captaincy Video

However improbable, a repeat of the scoreline on Sir Alex Ferguson’s last day in the Old Trafford hot seat would be welcomed by Fantasy managers, with the obvious exception of Liverpool fans.

Anfield was also set to be the petri dish for David’s new ‘equal opportunities’ captain experiment.

Speaking on the Captaincy Video with Joe, David suggested the radical idea of handing the armband to the best candidate based on their qualifications alone. He highlighted a player who has scored in each of the last four Gameweeks, has had the most shots over the last six matches, and is up against the team that has conceded more big chances than anyone else.

However, that player, Christian Benteke, is now an injury doubt and has been left out of Neale’s predicted line-up. The experiment will, unfortunately, have to wait until the new season.

Must Win

The best Neto replacements and whether FPL managers should stick with Fernandes

As mentioned, Leicester City’s need not only to win but ideally by a big margin, thrusts Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.2m) into the spotlight. 

The Foxes forward has 11 goals in 11 matches and faces a Spurs side who conceded 20 shots in their home encounter with Aston Villa.

But the fact that Brendan Rodgers could instruct his team to go for it at some stage, may benefit Harry Kane (£11.9m) if it means Leicester leave themselves open at the back. The want-away Spurs forward has an impressive record against the newly-crowned FA Cup winners, scoring 14 goals in 11 Premier League meetings.

Encouragingly for those backing Kane, influential centre-half Jonny Evans (£5.6m) is set to sit out the King Power clash with injury. His presence at the back was sorely missed in the 4-2 home defeat to Newcastle United in Gameweek 35:

[The injury to Jonny Evans was] very disruptive. He’s a great talker. With Caglar and Wesley, they are both fantastic talents but Jonny is the brain in there and he organises them so for him to come out was a big blow for us.

– Brendan Rodgers, after the Gameweek 35 defeat to Newcastle

Elsewhere, Michail Antonio (£6.7m) boasts impressive underlying stats for West Ham’s clash with Southampton.

Over the last four matches, no forward has registered a higher xG non-penalty (2.52) than the Hammers forward.

– Zophar

And Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side have not done well on the road: 

Nine defeats for Southampton in their 10 away league fixtures this calendar year. The Saints, who travel to West Ham United this weekend, have conceded 30 goals in these nine defeats, scoring just seven in return. Their sole win on the road in 2021 was at relegated Sheffield United.

– Big Numbers

Don’t Look Back in Anger

Pro Pundits Simon March and Lateriser were both in reflective mood ahead of the season finale.Simon counselled on the perils of hindsight bias, while Lateriser rued his early season overconfidence.

“We are more likely to apply hindsight to negative outcomes than positive ones … The key to overcoming hindsight bias is learning to evaluate decisions based on their logic rather than their outcome. Rationally-speaking, the outcome should be irrelevant if the logic used in the decision-making process was sound.” – Simon March

And this is where Lateriser feels he let himself down at times, believing he could create whatever narrative he wanted and going against logic. He cited the example of ignoring Mohamed Salah in Gameweek 1 when Liverpool took on newly-promoted Leeds United.

All the same, the three time top 200 manager is still in love with FPL.

“I was actually very surprised by how much I enjoyed a green arrow despite the poor rank. It gave me genuine delight and that little bit of a good run I had in the past few Gameweeks.” – Lateriser

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

UEFA Champions League Fantasy Football is back - what you need to know 3

Following the quick turnaround of recent weeks, Neale recapped on the winners of our two cup competitions. Congratulations to Genovoze and Mohd Rodzi on their respective triumphs in the FFS Open Cup and FFS Members Cup.

And well done to Jambo17 who added a third-place finish in the FFS Open Cup to his 2018/19 runners-up spot in the Members Cup. Likewise Rossaldinho, who overcame SUNFLOWER to take the bronze medal in this year’s Members Cup.

RedLightning brought us his regular update on the community competitions, which included a look at the Grand Final of Last Man Standing.

The competition, run every year by TorresMagic, eliminates the lowest-scoring managers each Gameweek until just four managers remain to battle it out in the final round. 

The Hsuper One adds his name to the list of winners after overcoming Robert Tuck (aka COVID-CASUAL), Steven Schelk (aka The Suspended One), and Amit Sharma in Gameweek 37. Many congratulations to him.

And despite his cup success Callum Croal (aka Jambo17) will be one of the ten managers relegated from the top division in our Head-to-Head Leagues.

Gameweek 38 sees David Arblaster, in eleventh, take on Richard Clarke, in tenth, to decide the final relegation spot. Meanwhile Aleksander Våge Nilsen (aka AleksanderVN) will be hoping for a win or a draw to ensure he claims the ultimate prize of Head-to-Head League Champion. Ville Tuominen (aka Santigold) lies in wait should he slip up.

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 38 can be found below. 

The scores and tables update every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

For the last time this season, may your arrows be green!

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.”

2,761 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Kane Lane
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 11 days ago

    Any team leaks? Thinking bringing in Sterling over Mane.

  2. Peskey
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Shaw to either Chilwell or Cresswell worth -4?
      Otherwise have to play Digne or Targett

      1. Fodderx4
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Play Digne

      2. D1B
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Nope. Happily play Digne over taking a hit

    • Jerse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Would not touch the Chelsea attack with a barge pole. Tough fixture, Touchel is more negative than Mourinhio and they simply dont score enough.

    • WhatWouldYourZlatanSay
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      A) Holgate > James (rival has Rudi)
      B) Holgate > Mee
      C) Holgate > Tierney
      D) Kane > Kun (chasing, rival has/had Kane)
      E) A/B/C AND D (-4)

      or randomly

      F) Holgate/Son > Robertson/Pepe

      Cheers and one more time good luck!

    • Duke Silver ☑
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Why is everyone so sure Greenwood starts today?

      1. michaelington
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Because there’s a fake line up leak

      2. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Common sense + rumoured leak

      3. Obi-Wan Bissaka
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Cavani defo won't start. Greenwood prob starts final on bench.

      4. Rog.
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        There’s a ‘leak’ on Twitter

      5. Would Ed Woodward
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Unfortunately I think he's benched for the Europa final so the most likely to start.

      6. D1B
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        No other striker in a fully rotated 11 (Unless Martial is suddenly fit), and Cavani is sure to not start. Rashford could start ahead of him but Greenwood is the most likely of the United assets to start imo.

        (United fan for context)

        1. HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Would you still keep as he’d be playing with a weakened team with nothing to play for?

    • Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      To hit or not to hit?

      I'm just 9 points ahead in ML. Will probably do Bruno to Mane, but worried about only having Raphina from Leeds. Worth a hit for Bamford? Or play safe? Or get Bamford & keep Bruno & hope he plays?

      Mendy
      TAA Shaw Holding
      Lingard Bruno Mo Raphina Greenwood
      Nacho Kane
      (Forster DCL Fofana Ward)

      Rival's team
      Meslier
      Philips Shaw Dallas
      Lingard Son Mo Raphina ASM
      Nacho Kane
      (Leno DCL Holding Coady)

      1. yanky
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        id take the hit for bam and bench a utd mid

      2. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        My problem as well

        1. Crunchie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Take the hit

      3. D1B
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        No hit if your rival doesn't have Bamford. Very risky

        1. Gentle_Turks
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Yes, he can't get Bamford as he has 3 Leeds. So you reckon a hit is too risky?

      4. Gabhini Gupini
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Bamford very likely to play 60-70mins

        1. Gentle_Turks
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          So you wouldn't take the hit?

    • yanky
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      really really would love a robertson goal and cs !!!!

    • J to the T
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Start Watkins or Zaha?

      1. brixtonBob
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Watkins

    • Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      6 points above 1k. Definitely shielding.

      A. DCL to Bamford
      B. Zaha to Raphinha
      C. Both
      D. Have Stones on the bench, play him instead of Zaha ??

      1. D1B
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        As someone chasing 1k I think you should do both (for your sake, not mine)

      2. HMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        A the most reliable and template

    • Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      I've a 8 point lead, do I sacrifice my 8 points to make some final blocks?

      Davis, Bruno, Castagne -> Bamford, Raphinha (block), Dallas (block)

      1. Gooner Kebab
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        yes because of the players

    • LewanGOALski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      which one:
      A) play Digne
      or
      B) get any defender that isn’t TAA/Robbo/Dallas for a hit
      ..?

      1. Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        A

      2. Free Hat
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Im going with Digne. Hoping for a Dallaesque performance at City

      3. Deeney-is-a-god
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Play digne

    • Lord of Ings
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      What would you do guys?

      Play digne/Zaha

      Or

      bring Torres/pepe (-4)

    • Tauruspt
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      KDB worth a punt for Bruno?

    • BurnMyBread
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 11 days ago

      A) Tierney and Watkins
      B) Digne and Nacho

    • Krafty Werks
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Bench which one? Ta.

      A - Lingard
      B - Greenwood
      C - Son

    • Lethargio Alcantara
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      should I bench AWB, SHAW and BRUNO?

      1. Bonus magnet
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        sell probably

      2. Guru Mediation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        None of them playing so yes

        1. Guru Mediation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          According to leak/rumour

          1. Ruinenlust
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            Link?

      3. DA Minnion (In Bielsa we tr…
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Yes

    • FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      Do we know if forster will play or not?

      1. gart888
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Subsribed

    • Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 11 days ago

      I know Mark wants to catch Andy up but to cut off Ireland's internet is a tad extreme

      1. mynameisq
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Haha classic

      2. Weeb Kakashi
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        Sneaky Mark.

    • endrent
        2 months, 11 days ago

        I´m 3p ahead in mini league. Do i go Maguire to Walker/Tierney (already have TAA so won´t bet on Robbo) or Maguire+Rashford to Holding+Mané for a - 4?

      • PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 11 days ago

        For one last time, stay calm Dallas

      • Hitthewall
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Play Pickford or Forster?

          1. Lord of Ings
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            I'm going Forster but I'm in the same dilemma as well.

        • Whats the Mata?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Start DCL or Watkins?

          1. Toughie
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            Watkins has been consistent

        • ballsy_b
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 11 days ago

          What are Mahrez owners doing?
          If Transferring out, for who?

          1. Sun Jihai
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            Probably selling for a Chelsea mid or an Arsenal mid
            Really want Havertz but not sure on the injury

        • asdf_1
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Is the utd lineup posted by mark goldbridge reliable?

        • LǝgleSs e|even
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Need all 15 to play, chasing ML does this BB look ok?
          Alisson
          TAA Rudiger Holding Dallas
          Lingard Greenwood Salah(C) Harisson
          Bamford(VC) Wood
          Mendy Nacho Willock Godfrey

          Any changes to make? Thx

          1. WhatWouldYourZlatanSay
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            G2G

        • Weeb Kakashi
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Who to get out for Raphinha?

          Foden OR Mahrez

        • HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Start Greenwood or Willock
          Own the former and need to free up 0.8m to fund Bale to Mane

          So Greenwood to Wilock OR Shaw to 4.6m defender (starting Greenwood)
          Backline would be Trent Dallas Holding

          1. g40steve
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 11 days ago

            About two hours late

        • DycheDycheBaby
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          I'm so worried about Mane hauling and rival getting him in. But is Son --> Mane worth a hit?

        • Duke Silver ☑
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 11 days ago

          Wish we had that all out attack chip for this GW 😆