Newly Promoted Teams 2010-21

Newly Promoted Teams 2010-21

This article examines the records of teams that have been promoted from the Championship to the Premier League since 2010. This reveals how many of them struggled to make a successful transition from the second tier to the top flight, with clean sheets and goals far tougher to come by. I will also look at some of the players and teams who bucked the trend to become great sources of Fantasy points.

A Difficult Transition

To put that rough ride into perspective here’s a summary of some analysis I carried out looking at the averages for goals scored, goals conceded and clean sheets for the 33 teams promoted in 2010-2020. While they scored 76 goals on average as Championship teams, that figure dropped to just 40 in the Premier League.

For goals conceded their defences also struggled in the top flight. While they let in 44 goals on average in the Championship, that tally rose to 61 among England’s elite. This made clean sheets harder to come by with their average dropping from 18 to 8 post-promotion.

This means that anyone expecting the three sides promoted in 2021 (Norwich, Watford and Brentford) to get as many goals and clean sheets in the Premier League as they did in the Championship could be in for a shock.

PROMOTION SUCCESSES

Players

But it’s not all bad news. There have been some notable high performers from the promoted sides, particularly among the budget picks, so it may pay to invest in a few of the players coming up to the Premier League.

The following 29 players from the 33 newly promoted teams all scored at least 100 FPL points at 4.0 points per game (ppg) or better in the season after securing promotion:

2010-11: Charlie Adam (Blackpool) 192 at 5.5ppg; Andy Carroll (Newcastle -> Liverpool) 135 at 5.2ppg; Kevin Nolan (Newcastle) 140 at 4.7ppg; Joey Barton (Newcastle) 131 at 4.1ppg; DJ Campbell (Blackpool) 138 at 4.1ppg.

2011-12: Michel Vorm (Swansea) 158 at 4.3ppg; Bobby Zamora (QPR) 119 at 4.1ppg; Scott Sinclair (Swansea) 151 at 4.0ppg.

2012-13: Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 187 at 4.9ppg; Kevin Nolan (West Ham) 149 at 4.3ppg.

2013-14: None.

2014-15: Charlie Austin (QPR) 176 at 5.0ppg; Danny Ings (Burnley) 139 at 4.0ppg.

2015-16: Odion Ighalo (Watford) 175 at 4.7ppg; Troy Deeney (Watford) 166 at 4.4ppg; Heurelho Gomes (Watford) 157 at 4.1ppg.

2016-17: Tom Heaton (Burnley) 149 at 4.3ppg.

2017-18: Pascal Gross (Brighton) 164 at 4.3ppg.

2018-19: Raul Jimenez (Wolves) 181 at 4.8ppg; Diogo Jota (Wolves) 139 at 4.2ppg; Neil Etheridge (Cardiff) 154 at 4.1ppg.

2019-20: Dean Henderson (Sheffield United) 160 at 4.4ppg; John Lundstram (Sheffield United) 144 at 4.2ppg; Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) 149 at 4.1ppg.

2020-21: Patrick Bamford (Leeds) 194 at 5.1ppg; Matheus Pereira (West Brom) 153 at 4.6ppg; Stuart Dallas (Leeds) 171 at 4.5ppg; Jack Harrison (Leeds) 160 at 4.4ppg; Illan Meslier (Leeds) 154 at 4.4ppg; Raphinha (Leeds) 133 at 4.4ppg.

Securing 5.0 ppg or more is rare though, with only Adam and Carroll in 2010/11, Austin in 2014/15 and Bamford in 2020/21 achieving this.

John Lundstram and Stuart Dallas are the only ‘defenders’ in this list. Few defenders from newly promoted teams score enough points to be played every week, but they can still be useful as enablers or in cheap rotations.

Charlie Austin in 2014 and Patrick Bamford in 2020 were very rare examples of players who scored more goals in their first season back in the Premier League than they had the previous season in the Championship.

Teams

Previous articles in 2015-2020 took a detailed look at the most successful promotion teams for Fantasy managers since 2010. Here I’ll highlight some key success stories.

The 2010/11 season proved an excellent time for promoted sides in terms of goals. Newcastle and West Brom both scored an impressive 56 goals in their first season back in the top flight. Blackpool too did well, scoring in all but one of their home matches.

Swansea proved the stars of the new Premier League class of 2011/12. They were promoted with an impressive defensive record at home, keeping 14 home clean sheets and only conceding 11 home goals. They also maintained their defensive form in the Premier League, keeping 14 clean sheets (nine of which were at home) and only conceding 18 home goals. Michel Vorm proved a shrewd purchase that year.

Southampton‘s strong attack on the road in the Championship was also maintained in the Premier League, where they scored in all but five of their away matches in 2012/13.

A change of manager proved pivotal to Crystal Palace who were back in the Premier League in 2013/14. After switching from Ian Holloway to Tony Pulis they ended the season conceding fewer goals in the Premier League (47) than in the Championship (62). Only two newly promoted sides have achieved this feat since 2010.

Huddersfield had been promoted in 2017 with a negative goal difference (-2) as a result of their policy of throwing caution to the winds whenever they went behind but being satisfied with narrow victories when ahead. Miraculously, they managed to avoid immediate relegation. Like Crystal Palace, they achieved this by tightening their defence, only conceding the same number of goals in the Premier League as they had done in the Championship (58).

In 2020, Sheffield United became the second newly-promoted side to concede fewer goals in the Premier League (39) than they had done in the Championship (42).

And in 2021, Leeds United scored an amazing 62 goals, six more than the heroes of 2010/11.

PROMOTION FAILURES

Players

While Adam, Carroll, Austin and Bamford all succeeded in both the Championship and Premier League, the road to promotion is littered with poorly performing casualties. Here are some of the biggest flops.

Adel Taarabt (QPR 2011): 19 goals in Championship, just 2 in Premier League.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace 2013): 30 goals in Championship, only 1 in Premier League.

Sam Vokes (Burnley 2014): 20 goals in Championship, none in the Premier League.

Jordan Rhodes (Middlesbrough 2016): 16 goals in Championship, none in Premier League.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham 2020): 26 goals in Championship, only 3 in Premier League.

The failure by Adel Taarabt was not entirely unexpected, since his previous record in the Premier League was not great. He had played 6 matches but failed to score for Spurs in 2007/8 and only played one match for them in 2008/9 before being loaned out to Championship side QPR in March 2009.
The reason for Glenn Murray’s lack of goals in 2013/14 was quite different though. He had been out injured since the end of the 2012/13 season and was not fit to play till February 2014, after which he scored 1 goal in 14 matches. He was then sent on loan to Reading for the first half of the 2014/15 season, after which he returned to Palace and scored 7 goals in 17 matches in the remainder of the season. He returned to the Premier League with Brighton in 2017/18, this time scoring 12 Premier League goals.

Sam Vokes scored no goals in 26 matches in his first 4 Premier League seasons, but then redeemed himself by scoring 10 for Burnley in 2016/17.

Jordan Rhodes had been a prolific goal-scorer in the Championship, but failed to score in 6 Premier League games and was then sent out on loan to Sheffield Wednesday.

Aleksandar Mitrovic had scored 20 goals in two earlier seasons in the Premier League, but was surprisingly ineffective in his third Premier League season.

14 of the 31 players who had been among the ten highest scorers of the season in the Championship in 2010-20 did however manage to score 10 or more goals for the same team in the Premier League the following season.

The 31 averaged 19.7 goals in gaining promotion from the Championship, but only 8.1 in the next season’s Premier League.

15 of the 31 were new to the Premier League, averaging 9.1 goals each in their first Premier League season.

The other 16 (most of whom had not been that successful when previously playing in the Premier League) only averaged 7.25, so on average the Premier League newcomers performed about 26% better than the rest.

Charlie Austin in 2014 and Patrick Bamford in 2020 were the only players in the 31 to score more in their first season back in the Premier League than they had in the Championship during their promotion season.

Teams

The list of failures is far longer as my earlier articles showed. Here are some of the poorest performers since 2010:

The slide in defensive statistics was particularly potent for QPR in 2010/11, as their goals conceded tally more than doubled after promotion and the number of clean sheets fell from 22 in the Championship to just 7. In the same season, Norwich failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road, as did Reading in 2012/13.

Scoring on the road also proved tricky for West Ham, who saw their away goal tally drop from 40 to just 11 after securing promotion in 2011/12. Whether home or away Cardiff still struggled to score in the 2013/14 season, where they failed to find the net on a staggering 19 occasions.

All three promoted teams in 2016/17 struggled in their away matches, winning only one away match each. Burnley’s strong home form enabled them to avoid relegation, but Middlesbrough could only score a pathetic 27 goals and only won 5 matches, whilst Hull’s defence, which had only conceded 35 goals and kept 20 clean sheets in the Championship, was completely outclassed in the Premier League, conceding 80 goals.

Fulham in 2018/19 were also outclassed, scoring only 32 goals compared to 79 in the Championship and conceding a whopping 81.

Norwich had scored 93 goals and only failed to score in 3 matches in the 2018/19 Championship, but in the 2019/20 Premier League they scored only 26 goals, failing to score in 20 matches, and didn’t win a single away game.

Fulham in 2020/21 were very poor in attack, but especially so at home (mostly with no fans), where they only managed 9 goals and failed to score at all on 12 occasions.

CLUBS PROMOTED IN 2020

Leeds United won the 2019-20 Championship with a strong defence that kept 22 clean sheets but only an average attack; they scored more goals in away matches (40) than they did at home (39). Star player: Luke Ayling. In the 2020/21 Premier League their attack was outstanding, scoring 62 goals and eclipsing the 56 scored by Newcastle and West Brom in 2010/11. Having scored only 79 in the Championship, this was also the biggest relative improvement by a newly promoted team since Blackpool in 2010/11. Their form was particularly impressive away from home, where they kept six clean sheets and only failed to score on four occasions.

West Brom were runners-up. Their attack was also only average, while their defence was weak at home, where they conceded 27 goals and only kept 5 clean sheets, but stronger in away matches, where they only conceded 19 goals and kept 9 clean sheets. Star player: Matheus Pereira. In the 2020/21 Premier League their defence was almost as weak in away matches as it was at home, conceding 39 goals at home and 37 away, and even Big Sam couldn’t save them from relegation.

Fulham were below average for a newly promoted team and would need to strengthen if they were not to go straight back down. Star player: Aleksandar Mitrovic. Their main problem in the 2020/21 Premier League was their lack of goals, especially at home, where they scored only 9 and failed to score 12 times, and they were also relegated.

Luke Ayling, Ben White, Liam Cooper and Kalvin Phillips of Leeds, Romaine Sawyers of West Brom and Joe Bryan and Aleksandar Mitrovic of Fulham had all been in the 2019/20 PFA Championship Team of the Season.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham) with 26 goals and Patrick Bamford (Leeds United) with 16 had both been among the top ten scorers in the Championship.

This was Mitrovic’s third Premier League season. He had scored 9 goals in 34 matches for Newcastle in 2015/16 and 11 in 37 for Fulham in 2018/19, but could only manage 3 in 27 for Fulham in 2020/21.

It was also Bamford’s third season in the Premier League. He had only scored 1 goal in 27 Premier League appearances for Crystal Palace, Burnley and Middlesbrough in his two earlier Premier League seasons, but in 2020/21 he became only the second player in this survey (after Charlie Austin in 2014/15) to score more in the Premier League than he had the previous season in the Championship.

CLUBS PROMOTED IN 2021

Here I’ll take a look at the three teams promoted in 2021. As we have seen, Championship statistics can often be a poor indicator of Premier League success. Nevertheless, let’s have a look at how they fared on their road to promotion.

Norwich won the 2020/21 Championship with an average attack but a strong defence. Their away form was slightly better than their home form, but that applied to many teams in this unusual season. Star player: Tim Krul.

Watford were runners-up, thanks mainly to their defence, which kept 23 clean sheets and only conceded 30 goals. The difference between their home and away results was remarkable – at home they scored 44 goals and conceded 12, keeping 14 clean sheets and failing to score only once, but in away matches they only scored 19, conceded 18 and failed to score 11 times, with five of their away matches resulting in goalless draws. Star Player: Ismaila Sarr.

Brentford were promoted via the play-offs, with strong away form and an outstanding goal-scorer in Ivan Toney, who was equally prolific in both home and away matches. Star player: Ivan Toney.

Tim Krul, Grant Hanley, Emiliano Buendia, Max Aarons, Oliver Skipp and Teemu Pukki of Norwich and Ivan Toney, Ethan Pinnock and Rico Henry of Brentford were all in the 2020/21 PFA Championship Team of the Season.

Ivan Toney (Brentford) with 31 goals, Teemu Pukki (Norwich) with 26 and Emiliano Buendia (also Norwich) with 15 were all among the top ten scorers in the Championship.

Ivan Toney will be a newcomer to the Premier League, but Teemu Pukki and Emiliano Buendia have both been there once before, scoring eleven and one goal respectively in 36 appearances each.

Note that Oliver Skipp (one of the Norwich players in the PFA Championship Team of the Season) was a loanee from Spurs, and they appear to want him back. Additionally Emiliano Buendia, who also made the Team of the Season, has now left Norwich for Aston Villa in a £33m transfer.

CONCLUSION

A comparison of the average promoted team’s performances in the Championship and Premier League should act as a wake-up call for anyone expecting players to be as successful in the Premier League as they were in the Championship.

Investment in successful Championship strikers should be treated with caution. Fewer than half of the players who had been among the ten leading scorers in the Championship reached double figures in the Premier League the next season, and the deterioration in their individual performance can often be greater than that of their team. In most cases, however, successful Championship strikers who are new to the Premier League tend to do a little better than those who have been there before without great success.

Clean sheets are also harder to come by, but good goalkeepers from promoted sides can expect to see a significant increase in save points.

tl;dr: Most newly promoted teams and individual players will find life far more difficult in the Premier League than it was in the Championship, so don’t set your expectations too high!

For the earlier versions of this article from previous seasons see 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015.