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Great Expectations

Will this be Kai Havertz’s breakout season in FPL?

We assess the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) appeal of Kai Havertz (£8.5m) in this first pre-season instalment of Great Expectations, a series of articles on players who have shown glimpses of promise and who are potentially on the cusp of a breakout FPL campaign.

All stats, heatmaps and xG charts used in this piece are taken from our Premium Members Area.

You can get access to all these figures and more with a full-year subscription, which are now available for the equivalent of just £1.67 a month.

FPL price reveal and launch reaction from three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser 1

INITIAL STRUGGLES

The Germany international mostly struggled to live up to his FPL price tag in 2020/21 but belatedly showed promise at the tail-end of the season.

The 22-year-old didn’t look comfortable in Frank Lampard’s 4-3-3 formation and then missed several weeks of the campaign after testing positive for COVID-19 in November.

The condition had long-term effects, something he touched on earlier this year:

The illness hit me hard. It lasted some four to five weeks before I could even think of getting back on to a football pitch. During the time I was ill. I was quite ill, to be honest. And I wish it upon absolutely no one. Then the aftermath was difficult too – I really had to work hard to get back to the pre-COVID fitness levels. You have to live with it.

Following the appointment of Thomas Tuchel in January, Havertz picked up an injury which ruled him out for a month but he has since shone in the German tactician’s 3-4-2-1 setup.

Benefiting from a move to a more advanced, central position, he thrived either as a no. 10 or as a false nine.

Above: Kai Havertz’s 2020/21 average position map under Frank Lampard (yellow) and Thomas Tuchel (green)

Havertz produced several decisive moments during the run-in, with the biggest, of course, arriving against Manchester City in the Champions League final, when he slotted in the winning goal.

“In my opinion right now, between a nine and a ten is pretty much his best position. He has the freedom to drop, to move between the two positions, and to shift positions between a ten and nine. Between a nine, a ten and a winger: that is the space where can be decisive for us.” – Thomas Tuchel

As a result of being positioned higher up the pitch, Havertz is shooting in better, more central areas, which is highlighted in these shot maps:

Above: Kai Havertz’s shot heatmap (left), goal attempts with shots on target in green (centre) and xG shot map (right) under Thomas Tuchel.

2020/21 STATISTICS:

Premier LeagueAll competitions
Appearances2745
Starts1829
Goals49
Assists611

PROTECTING HAVERTZ?

The main issue with Havertz in 2020/21 was the fact that his minutes were managed.

Tuchel started him in just seven of his 19 Premier League games, which made it increasingly difficult for FPL managers to invest.

However, the table below from Gameweek 27 onwards does suggest that a lot of that rotation was based around keeping him fresh for the Champions League.

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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

611 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Sleepless in Settle FPL
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Lingod score again

    1. Amartey Partey
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Going to be impossible to leave him out if he joins West Ham or Everton.

      1. Thomas Magnum
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I doubt West Ham sign him or anyone else at this point

        1. Amartey Partey
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Why not though? Everton need someone like him after losing Gylfi.

  2. Z
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    What do you think?

    Sancez/ Foster
    Shaw, Digne, Konate, Targett/ Manquilo
    Salah, Bruno, Buendia, ESR/ Winks
    Kane, DCL /4.5

    1. Keith Kiely
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I think having Bruno, Salah and Kane in the one team takes so much from the rest of the team. I’d have 2 at the most. It’s important to have balance in the team and have at least 2 starting players on your bench for rotation

    2. TheBiffas
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Personally like it, and don't think the team is too unbalanced even with 3 premiums. I'll being going with a similar setup

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Looks good. Not sure about Konate though and Watkins might be a better option to start with than DCL.

  3. Nomar
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Charlie Austin scoring against United again.

    QPR 1 - 1 Man Utd

    1. Keith Kiely
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Not taking too much in pre-season games since the teams are more or less second, third and fourth and beyond choice players. Looks like an exciting game so far though

      1. Nomar
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Obviously I have a vested interest in this game.

        1. Keith Kiely
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Naturally! I’m a Utd fan but in work right now (on lunch break) so no way to watch the game!

          1. Nomar
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Still 1-1

  4. DIMITRIS
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Who is the best option out of 6.0 priced midfielders:
    Harrison, Sarr, Mwepu, Trincao, Soucek, Traore, Fornals, Amrstrong, Jorginho, Traore, McNei, Willock or someone else?

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Sou

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers

    2. Keith Kiely
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Personally I like Soucek he’s a reliable nailed on player.

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Sou and Harrison for me, but wanted to see what others think 🙂

    3. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Gross

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers

    4. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Harrison

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers

    5. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Most points on this list will likely be Harrison again

      Maybe Sarr during fixture runs, but Harrison long-term

    6. Amartey Partey
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Harrison or ESR & 0.5M

    7. Bobby Digital
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I like ESR

    8. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Sarr

    9. TheBiffas
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Sarr or ESR

    10. Lovren an elevator
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Sou and Harrison. Maybe Groß. Trincao a decent punt option.

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers to all!

  5. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Would recommend the fpl ‘net the haul’ videos if you like your stats

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Tl;dr

      1. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Ok if you’re doing housework

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I thought he meant this short article on Havertz. Does he think you 'read' videos??

  6. Sleepless in Settle FPL
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Antonio goal

  7. Mikel Arteta
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Season 20/21
    The second day of the first gameweek

    https://twitter.com/GeorgePircalabu/status/1418940443505610760

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Andy let's talk flp team is mine, your welcome Andy lol

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/23895117

    2. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Excellent stuff! Loved it! Wasn't aware I'd been advising Hitler though.

    3. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Laughing my head off, so funny

  8. Andy_Social
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    I expect to own Havertz, but not from the off. Maybe from GW7 if I play my WC then. It depends on whether Blues get a new striker in though. If not, Havertz should play much more frequently and be a beast.

    1. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      changing your tune 😉

      1. jia you (The No BS League -…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I had him in all my drafts up until my Sancho draft today...but yeah agree can wait and get him in later

  9. Irish Villan 1985
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Lads....

    Sancho & TAA

    Or

    Bruno & Doherty

    Thanks.

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      probably A just but I've gone with Sancho, Bruno and TAA

  10. King Kohli
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Which is better?

    A. TAA + 4x4.5 def + Buendia (3-5-2)
    B. TAA + 5.5 def + 3x4.5 def + ESR (Hybrid 4-4-2/3-5-2)

    1. FFSbet.com
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      A

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  11. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Antonio brace

    Counter

  12. Sleepless in Settle FPL
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Antonio brace

  13. Little Red Lacazette
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Sancho @ 6% ownership already. Interesting.

  14. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Noble scores Antonio's won penalty

  15. FFSbet.com
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Stuck on Mahrez or Sancho 9.5M ITB.

    No Bruno so Sancho?

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Even if you had Bruno I'd say Sancho

    2. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I've gone with Sancho + Cancelo

      1. KGFC
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Will Cancelo be nailed or Zinchenko eat into his minutes?? That's my main concern with him

        1. Ze_Austin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          It seems he's first choice on both flanks, but nowhere as nailed as many other FPL options. It's a valid concern, so I have him paired with a nailed 4.5m mid. Counting his inevitable rests as 2 points of the bench

          I'm basically treating Cancelo like Jota

          1. Ze_Austin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            *2 points off the bench

      2. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I've done the same

  16. Dynamic Duos
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    2 goals and an assist for Antonio @bandwagon

    1. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      so funny, will see loads scrambling to upgrade Toney to Antonio now for a day or two until the next hot thing lol

      1. Alex_thekid
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Already done it Robbo to Cancelo and Toney to Antonio

        1. jia you (The No BS League -…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          haha...FFS nature at it's best

  17. KGFC
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Guys best third premium along with Salah and Bruno?

    1. Mahrez
    2. Son
    3. Sancho

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Son, but it is a tough choice, I've gone all 3 and Salah

      1. KGFC
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Wow... So no Bruno??

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          No Bruno

    2. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Sancho is who I'm on at the moment

    3. Gunneryank
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Son is too good for me to resist, but i can't have Trent if I commit to him.

  18. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Antonio nailed in my draft until he gets injured

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Lamptey too. There was a time Martial and Ings counted here, but maybe those days are gone

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Long gone

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Thinking about upgrading Toney to Antonio. Have the extra 1m...

      1. Make United Great Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I’d definitely do this

        1. Bobby Digital
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Think I will, cheers.

    3. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I'm avoiding West Ham players until I see some new quality players being brought in.
      So far Lingard is gone, there is lack in depth of the squad and Europa League to play in, as a Hammers fan hurts me to say it but unless some investment is made we will really struggle to replicate last year's form.

      1. Gunneryank
        2 months, 1 day ago

        You don't see them having near the same defensive form? I'm interested in Cresswell and/or Coufal. And would there be any reason why Cresswell wouldn't continue to have the same role and influence in attack?

  19. Sleepless in Settle FPL
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    LIVE | Burton Albion vs. Leicester City (Official Channel)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5krpyrOHAs

    1. Ooh Ah Cantona
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Daka looked a little like a deer in headlights in the first half.
      Soumare looked assured.
      Now I'm excited to see Dewsbury-Hall this second half.

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Still no sight of Barnes 🙁

    2. gogs67
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Thomas on for the second half, he's in my draft ahead of Fofana, keeping an eye on him here

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Yes good decision. Thomas became a regular at the end of last season, and I'm sure he'll start left back or left wing back. Fofana will probably be a CB, but he doesn't get g/a or baps really. Great player however. Thomas the much better FPL option out of them I think.

        1. gogs67
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Fofana ownership at 25%, Thomas at 0.3% at the moment.
          Really liked the look of him toward the end of last season and he seemed to end up first choice. Definitely got the higher point ceiling than Fofana for the same price
          He's looked decent already since he came on, I'll be quite happy if he stays well under the radar in FF team picks!
          Price will shoot up if he starts season well

          1. Ze_Austin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Nice Thomas cross there

          2. gogs67
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Missed a penalty there lol, interesting he was second up though

  20. Make United Great Again
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Is Cavani worth 1m more than the 7.5 strikers in your opinion?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      No

      1. Make United Great Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers. It’s come down to this for me

        A. Cavani & Toney
        B. Antonio & Kelechi

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          You got DCL?

          1. Make United Great Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Not convinced. Good fixtures mind you

        2. Dynamic Duos
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          B

    2. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Just about for me until European football kicks in...then nah

  21. Nomar
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Lyndon Dykes double!

    QPR 4 - 1 Man Utd

  22. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Nacho playing the Kane CDM role?

    1. Sleepless in Settle FPL
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Soumare

    2. Ooh Ah Cantona
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Switch to 442 second half with Vardy and Nacho top two. Dewsbury-Hall and Ndidi in the middle. Luke Thomas looks confident at left back.

      1. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Tongue in cheek

        He was dropping very deep

  23. Bank$y
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Dykes is putting himself back in the shop widow against Man United. He was strong in the Euros against England and the Czechs. Could be an asset for Villa of Newcastle as a holding CF. I'd give him a punt at 6.5-7 in FPL.

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Nah, not for me.
      Rather see Tammy Abraham or Divock Origi joining smaller clubs on loan.

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        To be honest I'd rather Dykes got his chance, they've had theirs. I feel Dykes has more ambition than Abraham and Origi.

    2. Nomar
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Nooooo, Leave him alone. We need him up front with Austin next season.

      It’s 4-2 now. Elanga just scored for United.

      1. AW127
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I support Queen of the South, his first professional club. You're lucky to have him.

        1. Nomar
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Agree. Absolute bargain at £2M too.

          Here’s his second goal today.
          https://mobile.twitter.com/JaviiAG1/status/1418961486018404360

          1. AW127
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Wow, what a goal! He'll get the golden boot if he continues his form from the end of last season.

    3. AW127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      He was linked to Burnley a while ago and now I can't see him playing for any other PL team.

  24. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Ole out

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Just signed new contract.

  25. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    A) Iheanacho and ESR(first on bench)
    B) Havertz and 4.5 fodder FWD

    1. Dr. Rog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      2 is better than 1

      1. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        cheers, ESR is likely to come on as I have the likes of Shaw, Sancho and Cancelo

  26. Thinkering like a Boss
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    A) Sancho Kane
    B) Bruno Son

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      How can you directly compare forward & mid vs 2 x mids ?

      1. Thinkering like a Boss
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        4.5 mid vs 4.5 fwd

        1. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          You might find playing 4.5m find, forward not so much so.

          Anyway should Kane join City then he is a must have.

  27. beans and sausages
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Downgraded Raphina to ESR to upgrade the defence. Team now reads…

    Henderson 4.0
    TAA Digne Lamptey 4.0 4.0
    Salah Bruno Mahrez ESR 4.5
    DCL Watkins Toney

    Digne to. 5.0 and upgrade a 4.0 defender?

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      At the moment ther is no confirmed playing 4.0m defenders so you at risk of fielding incomplete XI some weeks.

    2. Moxon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Henderson to 4.5
      Digne to Shaw
      4.0 to Ayling?

      1. beans and sausages
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        It’s basically Henderson Digne and Lamptey for 15m.

        Sanchez Shaw/Maguire depending on the first game and 5.0 defender or 2 4.5s like you say

    3. Ooh Ah Cantona
      2 months, 1 day ago

      If ESR is the first choice #10 at Arsenal this season, at 5.5 he'll be the best value player in the game

      1. Ooh Ah Cantona
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I think you can save 1m by doing Mahrez to Foden if you wanted Man City. Foden should get more points than him this season. It's just whether Foden will be available or not for the first couple.

        1. beans and sausages
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Just fancied Mahrez for the price point and potentially more explosive than Foden. Both will be a punt for the first few

        2. jia you (The No BS League -…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I was actually surprised how little points Mahrez scored more than Foden last season and agree...Foden at 1.0 cheaper looks a better option

  28. Dynamic Duos
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Anyone setting up a draft league?

    1. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I'm interested

      1. Nomar
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Me too.

    2. Nmasr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Would love to join too

  29. Lovren an elevator
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    IF....IF Grealish moves to City, that's the cheapest premium mid for years. He should be pretty nailed even for Pep's standards. He could be immense.
    Why is there not noise about him on here?

    1. gogs67
      2 months, 1 day ago

      He won't be nailed at City

      1. Focus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Indeed, just another one to rotate with

    2. jia you (The No BS League -…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      in my team 100% if he moves to City

  30. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    [Mike McGrath] Harry Kane is set to miss the start of the Premier League season after his exertions at the Euros. The England captain is set to miss Tottenham v Manchester City on the opening weekend, regardless of which club he is playing for.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/07/24/harry-kane-miss-start-premier-league-season-exertions-euros/

    Not that he's in many drafts, but one less starter to think about. Obviously affects Son.

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Yeah affects Son for sure he plays upfront great

      1. el polako
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Upfront : yay !!!
        Against City : boo !!!

      2. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I didn't lean either way because Kane is a great supplier if chances for him. It has its positives & negatives.

    2. beans and sausages
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      30% of teams. Will only get bigger imo