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Pro Pundits August 3

The £4.5m FPL defender rotation pairings to consider

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With a plethora of £4.5m defender options available to FPL managers this season, I thought I would have a look at a few to see which ones can be relied upon to deliver.

For this article, I will be using the fixture sensitivity chart developed by @FPLGromit on Twitter as well as stats from the Premium Members Area.

FPL pre-season: Trossard hits hat-trick from wing-back role 1

Brighton – Leeds

A popular rotation pairing I’ve seen is Brighton and Leeds: the fixture run on paper looks fantastic but let’s have a look at both teams to see how they fared defensively in ‘easier’ fixtures.

The chart shows that Brighton registered below 1.0 expected goals against (xGA) versus ‘easier’ opposition and even as the opponents got tougher, they still managed to restrict them to 1.0 xGA – so they are almost a ‘permaplay’ defensive option. 

Now we look at Leeds: they kept it tight in the so-called easier fixtures but as we see the opposition Soccer Power Index (SPI) go above 75, they started approaching the 2.0 xGA territory, which indicates they are very much a fixture-based defence rather than a permaplay one. 

Was there any balance towards home/away though? 

The Complete Guide to FPL Pre-Season 2021/22
310 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Walter White (WW)
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Thoughts on DCL?

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    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Scored regulary last season, not explosive and a bit worried about the support from his team mates mids this season

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      1. Walter White (WW)
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks

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    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I'm undecided. Good first half to last season, frustrating owner later.

      I can't decide which two out of DCL, Watkins and Antonio to go with Toney.

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      1. Walter White (WW)
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Watkins highly owned so this is worth considering & good first 3 fixtures.

        Think I’ll pick DCL over Antonio but not certain as well

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        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Yeah, pretty sure it's Watkins, Toney +1 for me. Probably a toss-up between Antonio and DCL

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        2. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Watkins is easy, DCL probably just over injury prone Antonio whose team has Europe later. Have had all three of them in my drafts not forgetting Wilson. DCL is focal point in their attack and they have to(?) score.

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  2. King Kohli
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which option do you prefer?

    A. Wilson/Antonio + 4.5 def
    B. Chilwell + ESR

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    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A Antonio

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    2. kevchenko
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A to start with.... but I imagine both of B will be in my side at some point

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  3. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which 2 captain options are you getting for the first weeks?

    Thinking Salah and Bruno

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    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Salah C, Bruno VC for me. Looks like Salah could be my captain for 4 of first 6 weeks.

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      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        So maby we don’t need more than 2 captain options in our teams for the first 5-6 GWs?

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        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Maybe not, I just like owning Salah and Bruno. Antonio and Watkins could be shouts in 3, Bruno seems to be the clear one for 4

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    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Seriously looking at Havertz week 1

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      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Home match
        Scratch defence that won't have played together before
        New defensive system based on passing out from the back indirect contrast to 4 years of RH indoctrination.

        What's not to like?

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      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Could pay off, I don’t have the balls to do it, thought

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  4. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    My first attempt at a draft landed me with this, which turns out is very template:
    Sanchez (Steele)
    TAA Digne Shaw* (Veltman Ayling*)
    Salah Bruno Raphinha Buendia (Brownhill)
    DCL* Watkins Toney

    I'm considering taking some money out of the defence and turning Buendia into Havertz:
    Sanchez (Steele)
    TAA Digne Veltman (White Livramento)
    Salah Bruno Raphinha Havertz (Brownhill)
    Antonio Watkins Toney

    The Havertz is less balanced (and I may well go back to something closer to the first) but, as a draft to play around with, what do you think?

    Thanks

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    1. Walter White (WW)
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Havertz is a solid pick imo

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      1. Walter White (WW)
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        You could easily downgrade later if needed

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      2. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers. I'm not saying he's a differential with a 12.4% ownership but relatively speaking he seems a point of difference from the template, which I broadly like. Doesn't seem to compromise the rest too badly either

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        1. Walter White (WW)
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          I’ve got him as well but would probably downgrade later because of Tuchel roulette

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          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            Good point

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  5. R.C
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Romero to Spurs - here we go!

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  6. BobB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    If you own TAA, is he a regular captaincy option? I also have Salah...

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  7. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    I've been thinking about the bench fodder spot. I'm coming around to the idea that 4.5 forward could be the ideal 15th man this season.

    Defensive fodder costs 4.0. It only costs 0.5 to upgrade to a potentially decent nailed option (White, Ayling etc.) and only 1.0 to upgrade to the likes of Reguilon, Tierney, Targett, Coufal, etc. Whereas it costs at least 2.0-3.0 to upgrade the 4.5 forward slot to somebody worthwhile imo.

    I've recently downgraded Nacho to 4.5 fodder. That 3mil could allow you to upgrade to an elite defense. There is only a gap of 2.0 from defensive fodder to the defensive elite (barring Liverpool players). The same 2.0 will only get you from attacking fodder to promoted strikers and the likes of Maupay and Benteke.

    Obviously the downside to having a 4.5 striker is that it is inflexible for those who want to play 3 forwards.

    I guess I'm wondering is it better to have 3 decent attackers and an ok defense, or two decent attackers and a great defense? Is something like Nacho, Ayling, White better than Obafemi, Chilwell, Shaw +0.5itb?

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    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I was really happy with Obafemi on my bench until I read yesterday Saints will sell him for 6M. Suggests if he stays he won't get minutes. Guess 5m mid Tella has sucked out his oxygen. The rest of the 4.5 crowd are not worth consideration.

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    2. TheComRED-YNWA
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I'm thinking through the same dilemma. Especially since I want bench players to be reliable 2-pointers given the Covid situation.
      Another factor: there will be more bandwagons/profit in mid and def positions so I'm wondering if it'd be best to minimize money spent in fwd line so there's money and spots available for mid/def profit.

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  8. R.C
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Hearing Pulisic played as a wingback for Dortmund under Tuchel.

    Should I be worried if I own Chilwell?

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    1. amitmishr
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Chilwell and James might rotate with Alonso/cho/ others, so that is always a risk with tuchel. But we are used to pep, so that's not a big deal, just be ready for a few 1 pointers and have a decent bench

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    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I think you might want to check which flank Pulisic started on vs. Arsenal.

      Pulisic started as a right wing-back with Callum Hudson-Odoi starting on the left.

      "He played there with me at Dortmund and we played many times like this with Callum. Marcos wasn't able to play today so we put Callum on the left side, which I wanted to see from a long time. Callum can maybe be more dangerous from this position coming inside which he loves, and which he did today. So you know our situation."

      "We have Azpi and Reece for this position [right wing-back] but Azpi only started two days ago and Reece hasn't even started yet. So we need solutions because we start on the 11th against Villarreal and on the 14th is the season. We can't try things then so now is the time to see. It was the possibility to give him some minutes and from here we go on."

      Pulisic has mostly played as a left winger for us & to be honest, based on the fact James/Azpi were out - you could have fully expected to see CHO on the right as before with a Pulisic on the standard left. However, Tuchel flipped it.

      I very much doubt Pulisic will be playing RWB very much, but this does tell us he has been considering CHO as a LWB option at times.

      Pulisic could start there, but it potentially means CHO could too.

      So yeah - Chilwell is first choice but you need to keep an eye on what Tuchel fancies doing.

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  9. Chris Maudsley
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Here goes nothing...

    Thoughts on the following GW1 team please:

    Sanchez (Foster)
    TAA Shaw Digne Targett (Manquillo)
    Salah Fernandes ESR (Raphinha) (Bissouma)
    DCL Watkins Antonio

    All feedback welcome.

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    1. Brimble82
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Nice. Not far from the median.
      Targett inclusion is nice, and I personally prefer Buendia over Raphinha for the first few, but that's a matter of taste - both good options.

      I'm favouring a 4-3-3 at present too. Similar to yours (* for diffs):
      Sanchez (Foster)
      TAA Shaw Digne Robbo* (Manquillo)
      Salah Fernandes Buendia* (Brownhill*) (Bissouma)
      DCL Watkins Toney*

      (Horribly template (aside from the 4th def over 4th mid) I know)

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  10. Cruyff's Eleven
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Nice, thank you.

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