Is ‘out of position’ Ferran Torres worth the rotation risk in FPL?

We begin our Scout Notes of the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) matches with analysis of Manchester City’s thrashing of Arsenal.

For a briefer summary of Saturday’s action, check out our Scoreboard summary here.

MANCHESTER CITY 5-0 ARSENAL

• Goals: Ilkay Gundogan (£7.3m), Ferran Torres (£7.0m) x2, Gabriel Jesus (£8.5m), Rodri (£5.5m)
• Assists: Jesus, Bernardo Silva (£7.0m), Jack Grealish (£8.0m), Torres, Riyad Mahrez (£9.0m)
• Bonus: Jesus x3, Torres x2, Gundogan x1

‘OOP’ TORRES – RISK v REWARD

£7.0m for an out-of-position midfielder playing up front for the joint-top-scoring Premier League side seems like a no-brainer on paper but Ferran Torres (£7.0m) was owned by fewer than 3% of FPL managers ahead of Gameweek 3, such is the week-to-week wariness around Pep Guardiola and his fondness for rotation.

Two poacher’s goals, an assist and an 18-point haul on Saturday will see his ownership inevitably rise (over 100,000 managers have since snapped him up) but he’s still in differential territory ahead of Gameweek 4.

So is he worth the risk? First, the pros.

City’s inability to sign a striker in the transfer window has left them short up top and if they fail to add to their ranks in the next few days, Torres will continue to see plenty of game-time through the middle.

He’s even someone Guardiola has previously mentioned as being one of the options for the centre-forward role this season and there were further comments from the City boss yesterday on the subject:

“Last season Ferran played exceptionally well as we saw in terms of his numbers – goals and assists. In this position he makes a movement like the best strikers in behind, moving incredibly well. His movement is similar to Jamie Vardy.

“He is very young. Manchester City did a great job buying him for a great price. He is a good finisher and had a goal was disallowed last week, when the finish was perfect.

“I’m very pleased with his movements, work ethic, and he has learned many things as we saw today – we are pleased on many, many levels.” – Pep Guardiola on Ferran Torres

The joy that Gabriel Jesus (£8.5m) is experiencing as a right-winger – he claimed his third assist in two Gameweeks when setting up Ilkay Gundogan’s (£7.3m) headed opener – also seemingly diminishes the competition up front in the short term.

But the start of the UEFA Champions League after the September international break looms large, something that will inevitably see the rotation step up a gear after three successive league starts for Torres.

We still have Kevin De Bruyne (£12.0m) and Phil Foden (£7.9m) to come back into the fold, too, the former in particular having moonlighted as a ‘false nine’ in 2020/21.

Foden is a good example of what we might expect from Torres in FPL. Last season, the England international started only 17 fixtures and made 11 substitute appearances. Despite a cluster of ‘one-pointers’ off the bench, he still averaged 4.8 points per match – better than the likes of regular starters Raphinha (£6.5m) and Mason Mount (£7.5m).

So owning Torres will bring its rewards but will require a) the nerve to ride out the one-pointers when they inevitably occur and perhaps crucially b) at least one strong, starting substitute to come in whenever Guardiola does his worst. Given the premium options we’re all trying to cram into our sides, that might prove tricky.

CITY MISCELLANY

A second successive attacking return as a substitute for Riyad Mahrez (£9.0m) perfectly encapsulates the rollercoaster nature of owning City assets: benchings can happen out of the blue but attacking returns can still easily arrive in a short cameo.

Mahrez created three big chances during his brief time on the pitch, while Raheem Sterling (£11.0m) racked up 10 penalty box touches and two big chances in half an hour.

The points were spread out again, with seven of the eight City midfielders/forwards who featured against the beleagured Gunners delivering an attacking return – Sterling being the exception.

And at the back, City’s only real scare came when a nonchalant Ederson (£6.0m) almost gifted Arsenal an early goal.

The best defence of 2020/21 have conceded only one big chance so far this season, picking up where they left off last year.

TOP OF THE SEASON TICKER, BOTTOM OF THE TABLE

Arsenal are top of our Season Ticker over the next eight Gameweeks, with a favourable run of matches starting in Gameweek 4.

They are also rock-bottom of the Premier League table, goalless and having shipped nine goals in their opening three matches of 2021/22.

There’s been precious little to encourage FPL investment so far but there are mitigating circumstances: the Gunners have arguably just faced two of the best sides in the division, have had their start to the campaign blighted by a coronavirus outbreak, have yet to see arguably their best two centre-halves – Ben White (£4.4m) and Gabriel (£4.5m) – playing in tandem and have been missing Thomas Partey (£5.0m) in the last few weeks.

“We have some players here and hopefully we can get some players back as well. We missed a lot of players in recent weeks, hopefully some of them will be back in decent shape after the international break. It is time to reflect, to look in the mirror, each of us, and try to change the dynamic straight away because we need to pick up results.” – Mikel Arteta

The opening-day Brentford defeat was miserable but it’s worth remembering that they recorded more shots than any other side in Gameweek 1, with the absence of their three first-choice strikers a contributing factor in their failure to put away any of those chances.

Mikel Arteta’s troops were also among the form sides of 2021 before the start of this season; it’s unwise to disregard them completely over the next eight Gameweeks (the battering of West Brom reserves in midweek did illustrate their potential against the lesser lights) but few of us will be considering the double/triple-ups that such a fixture run would usually invite.

Manchester City XI: Ederson, Walker (Zinchenko 46), Cancelo, Dias, Laporte, Rodrigo, Gundogan, Bernardo (Sterling 58), Grealish, Torres, Jesus (Mahrez 62).

Arsenal XI: Leno, Cédric Soares, Chambers, Holding, Kolasinac, Tierney, Ødegaard, Smith Rowe, Xhaka, Saka (Elneny 46), Aubameyang (Lacazette 59).