Look, let’s face it, I usually write books when it comes to articles but not this week. Instead, I’m going to be throwing some graphs and tables at you so you can see who has been doing what over the last 5 Rundes as well as over the course of the season.
About Expected Statistics
Firstly I just want to differentiate between xG and xGOT. xG is the statistical measurement of the quality of the goalscoring chance before the shot is taken, whereas xGOT (expected goals on target) measures the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal. xGOT takes into consideration the location of the shot as well as the underlying quality of the shot itself.
Amahl Pellegrino (12.0mNOK) scored a hat-trick after being brought on in the 58th minute for his home debut against Kristiansund in Runde 16. One of his goals was a penalty (0.79xG, 0.99 xGOT) and the other two were close-range rebounds/tap ins from within the 6-yard box (0.63xG, 0.94xGOT & 0.74xG, 0.89xGOT). The stats point to these chances being standard chances with a probability rating favouring conversion more than a miss.
Context is helpful for the reasons above, but more often than not, if a player is posting high xG and xGOT numbers, it means he’s in the right position/being given good opportunities to score AND is capable of finishing them.
Remember, a player can have a high xG in a number of matches but if their xGOT is poor it can point to poor finishing, a rushed shot, poor positioning or overall lack of quality. Inversely if a player has a low xG number but high xGOT (or scores with a low xGOT) it can be indicative of the opposite.
You will see ‘RPS’ crop up in tables – this means ‘Relative Point Score’ and is a very simple method of ranking performance in KPIs using a relative point scoring system. The top value is assigned the arbitrary RPS of 1, and everything else is divided into. This method, while simple, is an effective way of directly comparing one player with another without letting one or two statistics skew results. It is not foolproof but works well in this context.
OK, let’s get going. Firstly I’m looking at how our forwards and midfielders have fared in front of goal. Goals scored, xG, goals scored/game played and on target shots/game played are the statistics I’m looking at, sorting in descending order of goals scored.
Goals Scored/xG (FWDs)
Ohikhuaeme Omoijuanfo (12.2mNOK) is the league’s top scorer and also boasts the highest xG figure. Thomas Lehne Olsen (9.6mNOK) is second and despite having similar xG as Mushaga Bakenga, he’s managed to put away more chances.
There are two very interesting takeaways from this graph and that is Ibrahima Koné (7.6mNOK) outperforming Erik Botheim (10.3mNOK) regarding efficiency. He’s matching the Glimt forward for GS/GP while needing fewer on target shots per match. We shouldn’t forget the Sarpsborg 08 front man did score 4 goals last time out (50% of his tally for this season) and Botheim leads the way for goals (9-8) but Koné has played almost 300 minutes less and looks to be the more efficient player.
Henrik Udahl (8.4mNOK) is outperforming his xG and his GS/GP and on target shots/GP KPIs are almost identical. This means he very rarely misses when he tries to score. The fact he’s played 847 minutes and not just a couple of games makes this even more impressive. If he is given more of a chance either from the bench or in the first team, expect him to keep on scoring.
Goals Scored/xG (MIDs)
Kristoffer Zachariassen was a beast but look at Viðar Ari Jónsson (5.6mNOK). Wow. For a player not even valued at 6.0m, that is ridiculous. Teammate Kristoffer Normann Hansen (6.2mNOK) while scoring fewer goals and having a worse xG, is actually posting more on target shots per game – potential for more goals?
Bendik Bye (6.4mNOK) is one of the MOST wasteful players in the league. What is going on there? Notice the pyramid shape formed between GS/GP and on target shots/GP – this is not what we want to see. Remember how Udahl’s lines almost touched? That’s optimal, this isn’t. He’s finding it difficult to convert his shots into goals and is in turn scoring fewer goals than expected.
Pellegrino skews the graph somewhat as he’s only featured twice to this point, but it does show how explosive he is and what he’s capable of.
Looking at Ulrik Saltnes (10.6mNOK) and Oliver Edvardsen (7.1mNOK) it’s clear that Saltnes is wasting more shots than the Stabæk man, but they’ve still scored the same number of goals (6). Edvardsen’s xG number is quite a bit lower than Saltnes’ but for 3.5m cheaper, I’d be expecting much, much worse.
As well as assists and xA, we’re looking at key passes and chances created (both totals) to highlight how likely these players are at getting assists and boosting their xA total.
Rosenborg midfielder Gjermund Åsen (8.1mNOK) currently on loan at Lillestrøm is having a remarkable season and (Fantasy assists included) with 6 assists, sits just 1 behind Magnus Wolff Eikrem (12.4mNOK), Kristoffer Velde (8.8mNOK) and Ola Brynhildsen (7.9mNOK) who are all on 7.
He is joint 5th for key passes with Niklas Sandberg (7.5mNOK) and Joe Bell (4.8mNOK) on 30 while no other player has created more chances (9). Carlo Holse (7.9mNOK) has also created a healthy number of chances and key passes while Kristiansund winger Torgil Gjertsen (7.8mNOK) almost matches Åsen in all KPIs other than chances created.
Shayne Pattynama (5.5mNOK) skews the graph as he’s played a mere 465 minutes, but I wanted to include him to highlight his brilliant contribution over such a short space of time. When he joined Viking in the off-season I mused he would be a very good player for them if given the minutes, so it’s good to see him performing well.
Lars-Christopher Vilsvik (4.6mNOK) seems to get better every season – his xA is 1.06 better than the next guy – Christian Dahle Borchgrevink (6.1mNOK) (4.70 – 3.64) and he’s also played the most key passes – 29 – in the league (defenders).
Sturla Ottesen (4.6mNOK) is also showing his ability and making a statement with his creativity as well as actual returns. If Stabæk go down I really cannot see him staying with them. He’s a quality player especially as he’s not long turned 20 years old.
Christoffer Aasbak (5.4mNOK) could be a great differential as he’s not even in 1.5% of teams yet his xA is on par with many other more expensive, more highly owned players. He’s created more chances (7) than any other defender and is just 2 key passes shy (16) of Borchgrevink (18).
As I’m on my wildcard, I find myself struggling to decide between a few players in key areas. There are so many decent options in defence that I wanted to look at recent form as well as stats to date in order to see if I had overlooked anything. For instance, despite having lofty numbers and performing well in multiple key areas, Borchgrevink’s form over the last 5 games has been lamentable.
This is a reminder that overall statistics can be a crutch as well as helpful. I don’t think it means we should turn our back altogether on players in a rough patch, but it could suggest we should temporarily back other assets.
Bjørkan vs. Borchgrevink
Bjørkan is so far ahead of Borchgrevink in the last 5 games it makes it a relatively easy decision (in my opinion) to back the Glimt man. Dribbles, key passes and xA are considerably higher and even though he’s taken fewer shots, his xG value still trumps Borchgrevink’s.
The Glimt full back is also finding more success with his crosses despite attempted almost half as many.
Wembangomo vs. Ottesen
Another similarly priced pair and again a landslide victory for one. Brice Wembangomo (4.5mNOK) may not have recorded many FP in last 5 games but his attempted more dribbles than Bjørkan, matched Ottesen for key passes and has a very healthy-looking overall xDGI of 1.37.
The Sandefjord man represents great value for money and if torn between the two, it feels like an easy decision.
Ottesen will miss R19 but then has a DGW the week after – he could be avoided for now and brought in to cater for that DGW if you were thinking about getting him.
Aasbak vs. Vilsvik
Aaskbak and Vilsvik are quite different players but they both offer something. Vilsvik more than doubled Aasbak’s key passes and has taken far more corners, but only just beats the Kristiansund man for successful crosses even though he’s attempted 18 more.
Aasbak seems to offer more of a tangible route to a DGI as he looks good for assists and goals due to favourable returns in both xA and xG. The biggest plus to Aasbak is the team in which he plays – Kristiansund are a good side and more than capable of breaking into the top 3 this season. Naturally this means they are better defensively and thus you are more likely to be rewarded with clean sheets.
When looking at the form of these players over the last 5 weeks it becomes clear that both Aasbak and Vilsvik have had a good time of it while Borchgrevink and Ottesen much less so.
Bjørkan may not have set the world alight but he’s got a respectable spread of involvement across the board and Wembangomo is doing pretty much everything he can to give his team the best chance of scoring.
Kristoffer Normann Hansen vs. Viðar Ari Jónsson
Jonsson beats Hansen for FP, BFP and corners/crosses. Everything else, K. N. Hansen is either matching him or is way ahead. He’s attempted 5 times the number of dribbles as his teammate and 5 more shots.
I’d say Jonsson looks more likely to assist, whereas Hansen is more of a goal scorer. Even so, their xA and xG numbers are very similar so it comes down to how much stock you’re willing to put into dribbles and/or corner duty. Both great options either way.
Velde vs. Sandberg
Another teammate dilemma. Velde is clearly more of a dribbler than Sandberg but he’s way behind on key passes and crosses. There is a huge gap between their xA while Sandberg is not too far away from Velde’s xG.
Looking at the stats for the season along with the recent form, Sandberg gets the nod for me as he’s 1.3m cheaper and seems to offer more in the way of both assists and goals.
Bye vs. Mucolli
Bendik Bye should be the top scoring midfielder in the league. He’s missing too many shots and it makes him a very confusing Fantasy asset to analyse, especially as Kristiansund should have scored more goals by now.
Agon Mucolli (6.2mNOK) really doesn’t look a bad player. He’s playing key passes, attempting dribbles and has respectable xA and xG values. He’s outscored his peer in the last 5 but there’s little between them. I’d lean more towards Mucolli because he’s not reliant on his shooting as much as Bye is. Bye will either score, or do nothing, whereas Mucolli offers attacking threat on both fronts.
Holse vs. Åsen
Considering they’ve both clocked up 18 FP in their last 5 games I thought this one would be close. Well, not really. Åsen’s xA is more than double that of Holse’s as well as having almost twice the number of shots. He’s not on corners unlike the Rosenborg man yet still managed to put in the same number of crosses.
12 key passes to 6 and 10 attempted dribbles to 6 show that the loanee is flourishing in this high-flying Lillestrøm side and that his form is seemingly everlasting.
Unsurprisingly Åsen ranks highest when compared with everyone else, with Sandberg and Jonsson in 2nd and 3rd place respectively. I’m moving along with the Sandefjord and Haugesund midfielders but steering clear of Åsen.
Perhaps this is a mistake, and it could very well be short-sighted of me, but with Lehne Olsen already in my team, it feels as though I’d have too many eggs in the same basket when I could just as well have them elsewhere.
Mucolli appeals to me quite a bit despite failing to impress when compared but his xA is second only to Åsen and ranks 3rd for key passes. I have been encouraged by what I’ve seen of him – especially his last outing – and see more to come from him.
I will leave it there for today – hopefully these graphs and tables are helpful and remember, I’m choosing players I’m interested in comparison, and this is not intended to be full of any bias whatsoever.
I’m constantly updating my database with relevant statistics and so I’m able to navigate my way through a lot of information and end up pointing at players who have performed well, are performing well and have the potential to do even better.
MY WILDCARD TEAM (PROBABLY)
GK – Jacob Karlstrøm (4.5m, 15.4%)
GK – Mats Trige (3.9m, 5.6%)
DEF – Fredrik Andre Bjørkan (38.3%)
DEF – Christoffer Aasbak (1.4%)
DEF – Vetle Winger Dragsnes (4.9mNOK, 7.7%)
DEF – Lars-Christopher Vilsvik (5.9%)
DEF – Brice Wembangomo (7.1%)
MID – Amahl Pellegrino (19.5%)
MID – Stefano Vecchia (3.4%)
MID – Niklas Sandberg (2.1%)
MID – Viðar Ari Jónsson (29.5%)
MID – Joe Bell (4.7%)
FWD – Ohikhuaeme Omoijuanfo (43.4%)
FWD – Thomas Lehne Olsen (39.8%)
FWD – Ibrahima Koné (4.2%)
This leaves me with 0.4m in the bank to fund a move for Zlatko Tripic (9.6mNOK) from Vecchia, as well as leaving myself able to make sideways moves from Sandberg and Koné for other potential targets.
I am not thinking too much about the DGW other than a probable move for Fredrik Haugen (6.5mNOK). His audition for my team comes this weekend in the home tie vs. Viking – if he starts and does well, there’s a very good chance he’ll be my DGW captain in two Rundes time.
Sorry if you were expecting a longer, more in-depth article – give me a few more weeks and then we’ll see!