Pro Pundits

How checklists can help you make better FPL decisions: Part 1

Ex-FPL winner Simon March: How to avoid getting carried away with your GW1 picks

A recurring theme in this column is the presence of various cognitive biases in us humans and how often they affect our decision-making in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Being aware of these biases is only the first step to managing them however and, given that we are usually talking about mindsets that have rooted and evolved over hundreds of thousands of years, not succumbing to them is often easier said than done.

While there are many strategies for managing our cognitive biases, one fundamental yet extremely effective one is the checklist. Checklists are not just for remembering what you need from the supermarket or codifying the things you should (but probably won’t) do at work this week, they’ve been used to radically improve safety records in everything from airplanes to factories to hospitals and so on.

Might they also help you make better FPL decisions? Let’s see.

What is a Checklist?

A checklist, in case you don’t know, is a method and practice of recording information as a means of compensating for our limited ability, as humans, to remember stuff and to pay attention. The idea of a checklist is that you follow the items step-by-step and/or cross off each item once the required action is complete.

Checklists can be a motivational tool, sometimes they encourage us to get things done simply by their mere existence and they simplify tasks by breaking them down into sections. They can improve performance and efficiency, allowing the application of a systematic method to whatever it is we need to get done. Finally, as mentioned, they can also help us circumvent some of our deep-rooted cognitive biases.

Some examples of the impact of checklists include the World Health Organisation’s surgical care checklist which, after its introduction in 2001, reduced surgical complications by 36 percent and the rate of hospital deaths by 47 percent in just its first year of operation.

Checklists have also been adopted by the air travel industry where they have been credited with substantially decreasing the number of air crashes since their introduction in the 1980s. Not only do they help cabin crews remember important things like shutting the doors to the plane properly, they also reduce the impact that social conventions and hierarchical status can have on airplane safety.

In his book ‘Outliers’, author and journalist Malcolm Gladwell describes how the poor safety record of a particular Korean airline was partially attributed to co-pilots being unwilling to question their more senior pilot colleagues, to the point that, on at least one occasion, a co-pilot was actually willing to allow the pilot to fly the plane into the side of a mountain rather than break social and hierarchical norms by pointing out that he was about to fly into the side of a mountain. Checklists systematised much of the airline’s cockpit activity, thus effectively removing this power imbalance and dramatically improving their safety record.

If you’d like to read more about the topic of checklists in general, I’d recommend ‘The Checklist Manifesto’ by Atul Gawande which is considered by many to be the core text in this area. Meanwhile, we’ll move on to the important stuff; how checklists might help improve your FPL decisions.

Memory

The first area of benefit to point out relates to memory. It is said that the average human mind can only really remember 5-9 items at a time, which isn’t a lot when it comes to making complex decisions.

Realistically, if you are reading this article, there is a good chance that you already have at least a decent idea of how to play Fantasy Football and you have probably accumulated some dos and don’ts based on your experience of the game to date. The problem is, it’s not always easy to remember all of these principles when you make a transfer, choose a captain or decide whether to Wildcard. The result is that we often make mistakes in FPL that end up being all the more frustrating due to the fact that we feel we knew not to make them.

The process of consulting a checklist before making an FPL decision means that you won’t have to worry about remembering your golden rules and, furthermore, you’ll get the opportunity to look at the decision in the context of these rules, which might be enough to make you think twice if you find it breaks too many or to help you choose which of two options might be the best.

Hierarchy

If you’re the sole manager of your FPL team, hierarchy won’t be an issue in a literal sense but, in a more abstract sense, checklists can help combat two frequent enemies of good FPL management; ego and overconfidence.

If you are a successful FPL manager, it is not unreasonable for you to trust your instincts when it comes to Fantasy Football decisions, but it can be dangerous to make decisions based on instinct alone. Equally, if things are going well for you, it is easy to become overconfident and start to believe that everything you touch will turn to FPL gold. Most of the time, we don’t realise that we’ve grown overconfident until we’re looking back, searching for a reason why things haven’t gone so well. 

However good a manager you are, effective decision-making requires a degree of rigour and self-awareness. Checklists offer a timely reminder of this when we likely need it the most. As rapper Ice Cube once said; “Chickity-check yo self before you wreck yo self”, though it remains a matter of some debate whether he was talking about FPL specifically. 

Impulse Control

Another common challenge of FPL managers is impulse control. If you’ve had a bad Gameweek, it’s hard not to hit the Wildcard button or take a points hit (or 12) and unnecessarily overhaul your team as a response. Equally, if you’re falling behind your rivals, it is tempting to play a chip to try and close that gap as soon as possible. If you’re excited about a match or a particular fixture, you might impulsively play your Triple Captain chip and, of course, there’s the classic ‘knee-jerk’ where you sign a player you probably shouldn’t have just because they had a really good Gameweek.

Checklists can provide objective criteria against which to measure the viability of these decisions and, merely by providing that buffer between impulse and action, they can help avoid a spur-of-the-moment decision that you might live to regret in the not-too-distant future.

Summary

Checklists; are they boring? Yes. Are they useful? Also, yes. Checklists can help compensate for our limitations in terms of memory, ego and impulse control and, thus, employing them as part of your FPL decision-making process has the potential to dramatically improve your Fantasy decision quality.

But what makes a good checklist? And how should they best be used? These are questions I’ll address in my next article as well as sharing the ‘Transfer Decision Checklist’ I have drafted and which I’ll be using to guide all my transfers this season. Until then.

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM GAMEWEEK 4

Wilson injury latest as Ronaldo and Lukaku haul
417 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Whits
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    HELP - Would you do H.Barnes and Digne to Semedo and Pepe for a hit?

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      probably not

    2. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Not sure Pepe for a hit wise.

      Just Digne to Semedo?

    3. Old Gregg
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Not for a -4.
      Leicester have decent fixtures in the next 3.

    4. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Why Pepe?

  2. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Tried to make a Ronaldo Lukaku Antonio front line team. Thoughts?

    Sanchez
    TAA James Tierney Marcal
    Salah Raphinha Gray
    Ronaldo Lukaku Antonio

    Steele Livramento Sissoko Mendy

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Not a fan of light midfield

    2. Tarby
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Love it tbf!

      But it is an incredibly weak bench, a decent chance that in a few weeks none start really which would force you into transfers every time a player is out.

      McArthur is probably a better 4.5 mid I think and Allan who's now 4.6. Rice at 5.0 would at least give you a certain starter if you could find the money

      1. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

    3. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      No City. You will want some of their players GW8 onwards

  3. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    FFS on fire today with the content!

    Love the work team.

  4. Fpl_Ludwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    A, B, C or D?

    A) Antonio to Saint max and Benrahma to Jota (4-3-3)
    B) Antonio to a 4.5 St and Mendy to Jota (4-4-2)
    C) Benrahma to Raphinha (5-3-2, in this case i bench Antonio and have to play this formation)
    D) Roll the transfer

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      C

    2. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      C

    3. KunDogan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      D

    4. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      C

    5. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      c

  5. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Who else read;

    “Chickity-check yo self before you wreck yo self”,

    In Ice Cubes voice?

  6. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Sanchez
    White Digne Shaw TAA B.Williams
    Salah Jota Raph
    Toney Ronaldo(c)

    Foster Benrahma Brownhill Antonio
    0.7 Itb 1FT

    A) Roll Free
    B) Benrahma > Sarr (Bench B.Williams)
    C) Antonio > Bamford (Bench B.Williams)
    D) Antonio+Benrahma > Pepe + Jiminez (-4) (Bench B.Williams & B.White)

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      You could comfortably roll the transfer so I'd avoid the hit.

      Would be tempted to move Bennie on. Sarr doesn't inspire me wildly, great player but Watford to struggle this season.

    2. KunDogan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Williams has a good fixture, A) could be handy next week…

    3. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks

  7. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Those in WC which premiums are you getting out of Salah Ronaldo and Lukaku?

    Thank you

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Salah and Ronaldo at least.
      Might squeeze in Lukaku too, or get him in 2 weeks time.

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      When I WC over the upcoming IB I’ll try squeeze in all 3 to make the most of Chelsea’s juicy fixtures, then I can downgrade one of him or Ronaldo to fix the midfield afterwards

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks both

  8. Jordan.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Dustbin men have just been

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Thank you for the update

  9. Ser Davos
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Christensen started last night. Think he'll get the nod at WHL?

    1. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Yes I think so. He’s definitely first choice. Unfortunately I think that means he plays more champs league fixtures than Tilva.

      1. Ser Davos
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Ah, classic. Tilva at 5.3 last I looked

        Alonso keeps blimming starting I see. Impossible this game at times

        Cheers

  10. PLANT_POWER
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    WC

    Sanchez
    Matip Shaw TAA Marcal
    Salah Greenwood Gray Raph
    Lukaku Ronaldo

    Steele Livra Scarlett Sisoko

    Raph can become Bam but I have to replace Shaw with Duffy and destroy my bench.

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Decent.

      I'd still want TAA but something has to give if you want 3 premiums.

      1. Carlton P
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        He’s got TAA

        1. polis
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          So he has.

          In that case. V. decent.

          1. PLANT_POWER
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 6 months ago

            I was actually surprised that I fit him in.

            1. Pep bites Kun
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 6 months ago

              I'm surprised 🙂 Nice squad!

    2. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      4-4-2 is the way to go with the big three. Bam isn’t worth it
      Think I would rather have Sarr + Armstrong over greenwood + Scarlett

      1. PLANT_POWER
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Good option, had Greenwood from the start and he's returned each game so don't want to get rid just yet.

    3. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      No Chelsea defence

      1. polis
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Could just bring them in for GW7. Swap for Shaw is simple enough.

    4. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      This team makes me want to WC. Very good.

    5. Yankee Toffee
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Very similar to my WC on 352:
      Guaita
      TAA Alonso Duffy
      Salah Greenwood Gray Raph Gallagher
      Lukaku Ronaldo

      Steele Livra Omobamidele Scarlett

      0.0itb

      Not sure who scores more a 5.5 def or mid....personally I liked the look of Gallagher and PAL with Viera. Thought I'd punt, can easily go back.

      ps. Moved Sanchez to Guaita bc I added Duffy and didn't want to dbl

      1. PLANT_POWER
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I like this. Alonso pick is nice.

    6. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      in the 2 games Matip faces MCI MANU, Chelsea have SOU and NOR - i'd try to get one of their defenders in
      in saying that not SHAW where you can compromise

  11. Carlton P
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Over the next three game weeks
    A) Benrahma (MUN,lee,BRE) .1/.2 price drop
    B) Raphinha -4 (new, WHU, WAT) potential .1 rise
    Will have Raph on my gw8 WC so would rather get him at 6.5 and no more

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Wait a week and do for free?

      1. Carlton P
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah could do. Suppose I’m gambling on a Raphinha return and Ben blank

        1. polis
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Assuming Bennie does nothing (might also return, Utd hardly rock solid defensively) that's 2.

          Raph scoring gives you 7-8 so you're only 1 or 2 points better off. Of course he could haul but don't remember him doing that loads last season.

    2. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      B

  12. Pep bites Kun
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    It's a good article - worth a read. Works for me.

  13. Oooo Matron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Son & Obafemi to Pepe & Jiminez for a - 4?

    Current team:
    Bachmann
    TAA Shaw Semedo Veltman
    Salah Son Greenwood Benrahma Allan
    Ronaldo

    Subs: Foster, Livramento, Obafemi, Antonio

    1. Tempestic
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Like it

      1. Tempestic
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        be tempted by Torres also

        1. Tempestic
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          depending on tonights lineup

  14. Mika-eel
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Salah 2 away from 100 Liverpool goals, and 4 away from Drogba's record as highest African scorer in the PL. Salah to score 5 at the weekend 😉

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Guaranteed

    2. cam
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      SALAH REACHED 100 GOALS WITH LIVERPOOL LAST WEEK

      1. Mika-eel
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        2 for Chelsea.

  15. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Benrahma to

    A) raph (have bamford)
    B) gray/doucore
    C) sarr (have sissoko)
    D) traore
    E) torres

    1. DontPiqueTooSoon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A or B

  16. Old Gregg
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Vardy time or improve my bench?.

    a) Antonio > Vardy
    Or
    b) Perica > Bam Bam

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Upgrade the bench. Shown already its needed this season.

    2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Surely you will want Antonio back after his ban

  17. WHUFCSmith23
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone think Antonio will drop again?

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      100% but maybe not until tomorrow/Friday

  18. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Just remembered its a Friday deadline. My hopes of a Gray double rise in the mud

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Why do you need the double rise this week? Surely hold him anyway? He's proving to be amazing value at the moment.

      1. The Strokes
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I guess he is on a WC

        1. Alisson WondHaaland
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah Im on WC, he's probably not part of my WC plans

  19. Bartowski
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    On Sky Fantasy, would you rather:

    A: Antonio & Shaw to Lukaku & Duffy

    B: Antonio & Benrahma to Bamford & Gallagher

    C: Antonio & Benrahma to Bamford & Duffy (Play 4-3-3)

    Ta.

    1. Carlton P
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      B if no Leeds, palace, Brighton cover

      1. Bartowski
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I have Raphina

  20. SKENG
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Hi, can I please get your thoughts on this team? I have 1 FT and 0.3 in the bank.

    Bachmann
    TAA Shaw Ayling Duffy Amartey
    Salah Greenwood Mahrez* Sarr Benrahma*
    Ronaldo Antonio* Obafemi

    Does it require a WC? Initially I was planning for GW7/8 for Chelsea fixture swing and more information.

    A) Use WC
    B) Antonio > Bamford (if fit)
    C) Mahrez > Raphinha
    D) Mahrez > Jota
    E) smth else

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Can see the temptation but no need to WC that. Would do C or D.

  21. I Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    WC team

    Sanchez, Steele
    TAA, James, Semedo, White, Livramento
    Salah, Jota, Raphinha, Gray, Sissoko
    Ronaldo, XXX, XXX

    For the last two spots:

    A) Antonio + Bamford (3-4-3)
    B) Lukaku + 4.5 (4-4-2)

    1. jackruet
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I wish I knew the answer. Not on WC, but essentially facing the same forward line personnel debate. Proximity to favorable Chelsea fix run and uncertainty about whether I’d really be able to sell Ronaldo for Lukaku makes it a close call.

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      B

  22. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone considering Pukki?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Some Norwich fans said he might lose his spot

    2. The Strokes
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Not at all

  23. Podorsky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Is Ramsdale now Arsenals first choice keeper

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I would say yes

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Nope

    3. The Strokes
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Yes I think so

  24. Ser Davos
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Premium defender potted history

    Baines at 8m 11-12. Remember being more keen on this guy than TAA (crazy I know). Benched for the London Riots WHL opener and then got pens when Arteta went to Arsenal

    Vidic at 8m 11-12. Did his cruciate and JEvans came in at 4.5 for incredible value

    Chelsea defenders. Terry and Cole 7-7.5 11-12. Early value was 5.5 Bosingwa who AVB favoured over usual early juggernaut Ivanovic

    1. jackruet
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Baines was insta pick for me. On pens, cornere, free kicks, loads of crosses

  25. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Why my FPL app (Android) has always either old or plane jerseys?

  26. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Checklists, lol.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Checklist

      Set a team for next GW.

      Sorted 😀

  27. jackruet
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Ronaldo has almost 40 percent ownership. Still no price Changes. Is this a joke?

    1. Bartowski
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      He was locked until start of the gameweek.

  28. mcginnntonic
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone thinking when Utd & City fixtures turn to get KDB in over Ronaldo? He's gonna be playing weekly by then surely

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      who knows, wait and see for me, 12m is pretty expensive for someone I wouldnt captain. Apparently he scored only 1 goal from open play last year.

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      The LDB ship has sailed IMO

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        *KDB*

      2. The Strokes
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I would never bet against KDB but I don't think that in the current circumstances we should worry too much about him.

  29. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    I never knew what a checklist was until now. Thank you fantasy football scout.

    1. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Hahaha, that's made me laugh, thank you Sir.

  30. The Strokes
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Digne to TAA for a hit ?
    Didn't do it last week and paid the price and now with DCL and Antonio, I will already need 1 transfer for DCL replacement.

    1. Khark
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Everton have Norwich in 2 gameweeks time? Surely hes a keep for that?

      Just focus on DCL