Spot the Differential

Three budget FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 10 and beyond

Gameweek 10 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Norwich City, Brentford and Aston Villa who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

TEEMU PUKKI

The best FPL forwards for a Gameweek 4 Wildcard 1
  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW10-14 fixtures: LEE | bre | SOU | WOL | new

Despite a difficult start, Norwich City now sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 10 and 14.

And while there will understandably be reservations about backing a team who have managed just one goal from open play so far, recent performances against Brighton and Hove Albion, Burnley and Everton do at least offer hope that they can compete at this level.

Now, with the fixtures turning, they have an opportunity to start building some momentum, with Leeds United up next on Sunday. Notably, the Whites’ rank bottom for chances conceded from the centre of the pitch this term, an area that budget forward Teemu Pukki (£5.8m) primarily operates in.

The Finnish international has been firing in goals for the Canaries since joining the club ahead of the 2018/19 campaign, and finished last season with an impressive 26 in 39 appearances, accounting for 35% of his team’s goals. This time, he leads the way amongst team-mates for goal attempts, shots in the box, big chances, penalty area touches and expected goals (xG), with his latter 2.52 total only surpassed by Neal Maupay (£6.5m), Joshua King (£5.6m) and Christian Benteke (£6.3m) amongst all forwards in his price range. Given the fixtures faced, which has included games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, plus Leicester City and Arsenal, it does offer encouragement that he can offer Fantasy value in the coming weeks.

With two goals so far, Pukki will now be looking to add to his tally this weekend, and could be an effective differential for Fantasy Premier League managers on the lookout for a new forward.

RICO HENRY

  • FPL ownership: 1.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW10-14 fixtures: bur | NOR | new | EVE | tot

Rico Henry (£4.5m) has been a solid performer for Brentford this term, making the left wing-back spot his own.

Described by Thomas Frank as one of the best defenders in English football, his performances were also recognised during the 2020/21 campaign, when he was named in the PFA Championship Team of the Year. Having now transferred those displays to top-flight football, he could offer real value in in the coming matches. 

Defensively, despite a testing opening schedule, the Bees rank fourth-best for non-penalty expected goals conceded (non-pen xGC), only behind Manchester City, Wolves and Chelsea. And while it is likely that clean sheets will be Henry’s most likely route to points, he does also offer a reasonable amount of attacking threat.

Amongst all team-mates this season, only Ivan Toney (£6.6m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) have accumulated more final-third touches, with the impressive left-sided centre-half Ethan Pinnock (£4.7m) handing him a platform to regularly push on and attack. He has also attempted 16 crosses, which is worth noting given that forthcoming opponents Norwich and Newcastle United rank 19th and 17th respectively for crosses conceded from their right flank. 

Henry has delivered a string of impressive displays of late, and given his fixtures, could be the pick of the budget defenders for the next three rounds.

LEON BAILEY

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £6.4m
  • GW10-14 fixtures: WHU | sou | BHA | cry | MCI

Despite a stop-start opening few months at Aston Villa, largely due to injuries, Leon Bailey (£6.4m) is showing signs that he is almost back to full fitness.

Having arrived off the bench at half-time in Gameweek 9, the 24-year-old subsequently grabbed an assist for Jacob Ramsey (£4.5m), and is now pushing for his first Premier League start of the campaign after a full week of training at Bodymoor Heath. 

Notably, when on the pitch this season, and despite limited minutes (129), Bailey has made a real impact with a goal and three assists in just four substitute appearances. That suggests that if he can nail down a spot, he can become a solid midfield differential to rival the likes of Raphinha (£6.7m) and Ismaila Sarr (£6.2m) in our FPL squads.

Villa’s recent losing streak has seen Dean Smith’s side slip to 13th in the Premier League table, and could see an end to their back-three experiment, which has been a bit hit and miss since its introduction in Gameweek 4. After West Ham United on Sunday, they also have a favourable run which sees them take on Southampton (a), Brighton (h) and Crystal Palace (a) before the end of November, which suggests that Bailey can offer value beyond Gameweek 10, too.

Bailey has showed glimpses of his quality off limited minutes this term, and now fit, could be an effective differential for our midfield set-ups.


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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

641 Comments Post a Comment
  1. fish&chips
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    A) Alonso -> chilwell
    B) Alonso -> cancelo

    1. PaladinVargas
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Chilwell

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Chilwell.

  2. PaladinVargas
    • 4 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Thoughts on Bernardo Silva for Greenwood? Can't stretch to Foden.

  3. CRO KLOPP
    • 4 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Dont have City attacker atm,so:

    A) Saka to Foden (-4)
    B) Raphina to Foden (-4)
    C) keep and play both,no hit

  4. Colby
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    KDB:
    Sickened by his benching last week. MEN report that he ‘misfired’ last night against West Ham. Am I mad to move him on for Foden? Sorry - repost.

    1. The King
      • 7 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      I wouldn't say mad, it would free up funds if you're in need of upgrading elsewhere. If you only have 1ft I'd maybe wait a week and reassess if you have no other problems in your team to sort.

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Dude, he is way overpriced.

  5. JBG
    • 3 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Benching Mbuemo for Foden it seems, "good chance he makes it" doesn't sound that good.

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Sounds like a "good chance he makes it" rather than not?

      1. JBG
        • 3 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        That's what Frank said about Mbuemo, feel like I can't trust him and want to get rid of Mahrez, so perfect.

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      You should play Foden in any case.

  6. Athletico Underachieving
    • 1 Year
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Not a resounding yes from Frank, was going Gallagher to Mbeumo but better to save?

    Foster/Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, Rudi, Livra
    Salah, Raph, Havertz
    Jimi, Ant, Vardy

    Gallagher, Lowton, Sissoko

  7. Q&A Gameweek 10
    Az
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Sam and I will be live tomorrow on YouTube for our weekly Q&A at 9.45 a.m.

    If you've got any difficult decisions to make, or questions you want answering, let us know!

    https://youtu.be/zwITDVKHMiA

    1. BigRedDog
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      ASM - hold or sell?

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Who to priortise if you dont have any City players: Foden or Cancelo

    3. BigRedDog
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      How important are Chilwell / Foden to get

    4. burkeyoa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      1FT - which transfer should be the priority this week?

      A) Benrahma > Foden
      B) Shaw > Cancelo
      C) Shaw > Chilwell

    5. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Who's he? Good FPL player?

    6. Atimis
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Raya replacements?

    7. richarlison2348
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      29 days, 10 hours ago

      Should you bother selling Christensen?

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        29 days, 10 hours ago

        Is it time for three budget strikers?

    8. Rover
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 9 hours ago

      Best Palace attacker to get after the City game?
      Next 5 fixtures: WOL bur AVL lee mun

    9. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 7 hours ago

      Your preferred Spurs player? Beginning to think I made a mistake to get Kane as Lukaku replacement last week. Should I keep or move to Toney and get Foden into midfield and then get Son when fixtures turn?

    10. Lemonhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 5 hours ago

      If you had Reece James would you start him this week? Having played mid-week it feels like a 1 point cameo incoming... But benching a Chelsea wingback feels all kind of wrong!

  8. Flynny
    • 6 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Ben White a doubt

    Vardy fit

    Broja out

    Is this pointing to starting foster over ramsdale this weekend? Thanks

    1. Forgetmeknot
      • 3 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Same thinking as me, I’ve just switched to starting foster

      1. Flynny
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        I'll probably join you

    2. FPLMACKEM
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Yes think I'm going for Foster

  9. Dark Side Of The Loon!
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Do we think Gelhardt will play again?

  10. Legohair
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Kane&Semedo to Auba&Cancelo worth to take hit?

  11. Are you Shaw?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    9.0 in the bank..

    Traore --> Mane (-4)
    Traore --> Foden (-4)

    I am finding it to be such a difficult decision

  12. fplking14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Saka to Foden?

    1. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Yes.

    2. KunDogan (B.D.)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Yes

    3. FPLMACKEM
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      100%

    4. Subzero (-4)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Hard to say exactly without seeing test of team but mane is now rested and should get very match forward. He is probably the better asset anyway

  13. lets talk about 6
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    play sarr or livramento?

    1. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Sarr.

  14. ballsy_b
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Mahrez owners.. what are your plans for him?

    Is it too sideways to move him to Foden?
    I’m thinking of holding as it would be hard to see him start against palace and then have a anxious 90 mins.

    1. lets talk about 6
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      make the move

  15. Ginola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Havertz out, Foden in (FT).

    Yes or no?

    1. lets talk about 6
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      no

    2. KunDogan (B.D.)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Yes

    3. The King
      • 7 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Without seeing rest of team I'd say no

  16. MoSalalalalalalalalah
    • 3 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Bottomed.

    Hi fellas. What do I do with lot? Thinking Sarr > Foden or I try and get Alonso for someone? Thoughts and any alternatives? Thanks.

    3.0 ITB
    1FT

    Sánchez
    Reguilón | TAA | Livramento | Chilwell
    Sarr | Saka | Benrahma | Salah
    Antonio | Vardy

    GK: Foster | A.Armstrong | Sissokho | Alonso

    1. BigRedDog
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Benny stinking up the team

      1. MoSalalalalalalalalah
        • 3 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        You wouldn't have him in against that Villa team?

        1. BigRedDog
          • 4 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          I'd get Foden in for Benny. And play Armstrong above Reguilon because Broja is out. GL

  17. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    I think the two decisions are being debated by a few on here. My thoughts:

    1. Foster vs Ramsdale

    Arsenal have conceded the fewest big chances in the league over the last 6 games and are 2nd best for xGC. Watford are... well, Watford, and have conceded 7 goals in the last 2 games. Southampton look stronger offensively lately although Broja being out does help Foster's case. Ramsdale also will likely make more saves than Foster owing to Leicester's propensity to shoot from range. I'd go Ramsdale.

    2. Saka vs Livramento

    Southampton are middle of the road for both attacking and defensive stats and while the fixture is more favorable, Saka is playing in a more attacking team and has a higher ceiling imo. I think Watford are looking more fluent and King is on form as well. I'd favor the attacker here and Leicester aren't exactly water tight either. In fact, they've kept 1 clean sheet all season from a fairly generous opening set of fixtures including 2 or more in 4 of the last 5. I'd go Saka.

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      I agree
      3. Should we sell Raphina or Saka to Foden,and if so,which one? Thanks

      1. Silecro
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Had the same conundrum this week, sold Saka

        1. CRO KLOPP
          • 4 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Thanks Sile,leaning towards that

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      #1 I've seen people discuss, but are people really debating Saka vs. Livramento?

      Only person I've seen post that is you when you posted this comment earlier 😀

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        I have seen that. Him or ESR. Both similar arguments.

    3. Atimis
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Picking now, would you punt on Fernandez over Ramsdale and Sanchez?

    4. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Thanks... My very question!

  18. fplgaruda
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    No for Pukki
    He s just not a PL standard striker

    1. KunDogan (B.D.)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Suffering from the lack of delivery

  19. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    29 days, 11 hours ago

    Team feeling a bit healthier than earlier.

    Sanchez
    TAA / Cancelo / Chilwell
    Salah / Jota / Raphinha / Mbeumo*
    Vardy / Antonio / Toney

    Steele // Livramento / White* / Bissouma

    - White possibly out & Vardy fit could be handy
    - Mbuemo a question make, but Livramento decent cover.

    I was kind of looking for an excuse to move either Raphinha/Mbeumo to Foden due to injuries, but should I just hold that move now?

    Bit concerned going without him, and even Jota's not a sure starter anyway, but selling him equally sits weird.

    Thoughts?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Jota to Foden feels like the bold move to make.

      I didn't see the penalty kicks so not sure if it was a bad miss but doubt it dents his confidence much.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        It was a bad miss don't I don't think Foden would randomly be benched on a shootout penalty kick standalone.

        Think he was the first taker, so confidence probably not that big a factor.

    2. luk46
      • 3 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      team is totally fine for now! I wouldn't take a hit, unless you hear more than one player is out.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        The Foden move would be for free actually, no hits 🙂

        But thanks. Saved FT is valuable too...

  20. Diro
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      What to do guys ?

      1) Tierney > Chilwell or TAA
      2) Benrahma or Raphinha or Saka > Mbeumo or Gray

      Cheers !

      1. luk46
        • 3 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Tierney > Trent, but probably want Chilwell very soon as well

    • AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Who is the best value goalkeeper to own and start for the next 12 matches or so?

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Up to now, technically, the answer is still Sanchez.

        Hard to say for the next 12. Probably either a 4.5m (Fernandez, McCarthy) or straight to Mendy (although would expect Mendy to have to make less saves in upcoming fixtures)

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Thanks...

          Mendy would be a solid option.

      2. BigRedDog
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Ramsdale/Sanchez

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          I think Sanchez fixtures tip it his way too.

    • Bartowski
      • 11 Years
      29 days, 11 hours ago

      Play Livramento (Wat away) or Gray (Wol away)? Ta

      1. Diro
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Gray

        • GREEN JUMPERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          29 days, 2 hours ago

          Livra

      2. Bobjonesjnr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Is Firmino a viable option?

        Currently have

        Antonio
        Vardy
        CR7

        Looking to replace CR7

        1. Sailboats
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          No imo

        2. Konstaapeli
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          I think so since he's in my team.

        3. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          No

        4. Honker Muddlefoot
          • 2 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Love Bobby as a player. As an FPL asset, though, think I’d rather have, say, a Toney for their next 3 fixtures, or maybe a Kane by the time Spurs start their gw 12-15 run.

        5. KunDogan (B.D.)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          No

      3. Sailboats
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 11 hours ago

        Would you do Rudiger to Cancelo for free?
        I have Chilwell and no Man City

        1. Bobjonesjnr
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Yes

        2. RogDog_jimmy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          I would not.

        3. KunDogan (B.D.)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Nah

        4. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          No

        5. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          No because I don't think Rudiger is a 'sell' over Cancelo being a bad buy. Great fixtures

        6. Hunta
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Hold

        7. Jinswick
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Good to save here right?

          Foster
          Trent, Cancelo, Chilwell, Dias
          Salah, Foden, Raphina, Saka
          Vardy, Antonio

          Ramsdale, Livramento, Brownhill, Davis
          Bank 1.1m, 1FT, no WC

          1. BigRedDog
            • 4 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Yep

        8. Tic Tacs
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Looking to go into the next couple of weeks and perhaps roll a transfer next week:

          Sanchez
          Cancelo (vc), Rudiger, TAA, Alonso
          Salah (C), Son, Mount
          Jimenez, Antonio, Toney

          Steele, Sarr, Livramento, Brownhill
          0.1 ITB

          Not ideal only having 1 City so looking to change that and downgrade Alonso over the next few weeks, but also happy to monitor the potential options for now.

          1. Big Hands Barry
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Alonso to chilwell?

            1. Tic Tacs
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              29 days, 11 hours ago

              Have considered it, now I'm thinking more about downgrading to use the funds further forward.

        9. Firmino
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Would you do Rudiger -> Chilwell for free?

          1. KunDogan (B.D.)
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            I would not

        10. Forza Papac
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Which one to sell for Broja? Extra cash will be used for Gallagher > Foden

          A) Vardy
          B) Antonio
          C) Jimenez

        11. Merlinho
          • 12 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          1) Azpi to Chilwell
          2) Townsend to Mbuemo ( I have Toney)
          3) Townsend to CHO or Kovacic (I can’t get to Mount)
          4) Roll transfer

          1. Big Hands Barry
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Not 3

        12. Big Hands Barry
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 11 hours ago

          Any worth the hit?
          A) Raphinha to mount -4
          B) Raph/Azpil to Foden/Chilwell -8
          C) nope

          1. KunDogan (B.D.)
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Keep Raph

          2. Tic Tacs
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Not worth hits right now

          3. Big Hands Barry
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 11 hours ago

            Cheers