Scout Notes

Antonio blanks and Bowen maintains fine form: FPL notes from West Ham’s win

We continue our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 10 Scout Notes with analysis of Aston Villa v West Ham United.

For a briefer summary of Saturday’s Premier League action, click here, while you can read up on Norwich City v Leeds United via the link below.

READ MORE: Raphinha stars as Leeds win at Norwich in Gameweek 10

ASTON VILLA 1-4 WEST HAM UNITED

  • Goals: Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) | Ben Johnson (£3.9m), Declan Rice (£5.0m), Pablo Fornals (£6.0m), Jarrod Bowen (£6.3m)
  • Assists: Emiliano Buendia (£6.3m) | Rice, Said Benrahma (£6.5m), Bowen, Manuel Lanzini (£5.8m)
  • Red cards: Ezri Konsa (£4.9m)
  • Bonus: Rice x3, Bowen x2, Watkins x1

IN-FORM WEST HAM

West Ham moved up to fourth in the Premier League table on Sunday, as they comfortably beat 10-man Aston Villa 4-1.

As a result, they have maintained their unbeaten away record in 2021/22, while their impressive form throughout the year is captured on this annual Premier League table, via Transfermarkt:

Antonio blanks and Bowen impresses: FPL notes from West Ham’s win 2

The Hammers’ now host Liverpool in Gameweek 11, knowing a win would take them above the Reds in the table, before fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), Manchester City (a), Brighton and Hove Albion (h) and Chelsea (h).

ANTONIO BLANKS

Despite scoring four goals at Villa Park, Michail Antonio (£8.2m) blanked for the third time in his last four matches.

However, he assisted the assister on a couple of occasions today and did register two goal attempts himself. Notably, his stats over the last four Gameweeks also suggest that he has perhaps been a little unfortunate not to return more.

Forwards ranked by non-penalty xG over the last four Gameweeks

BOWEN IMPRESSES AGAIN

In an excellent all-round display, Jarrow Bowen (£6.3m) produced a goal and assist, plus two bonus points, and posted match-leading totals for shots in the box, take-ons, crosses, final-third and penalty box touches.

After his first double-digit haul of the campaign, the 24-year-old has now returned either a goal or assist in five of his last six league appearances. During that time, amongst all midfielders in the game, only Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) has registered more shots in the box than Bowen.

Jarrod Bowen’s xG shot map Gameweeks 5-10

Bowen’s 11-point haul was trumped by Declan Rice (£5.0m), however, who notched a goal and assist to produce his third and fourth attacking returns of the season so far.

Meanwhile, budget defender Ben Johnson (£3.9m) made his third successive start, with Vladimir Coufal (£4.8m) interestingly benched, and repaid his manager’s faith with the opener. Said Benrahma (£6.5m) bagged a rather fortunate assist – his first attacking return since Gameweek 5 – while Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) and Manuel Lanzini (£5.8m) also supplied a goal and assist respectively.

ISSUES AT VILLA

As for Villa, they have now lost four consecutive Premier League matches, and conceded 12 goals during that run.

In an attempt to get back on track today, Dean Smith made four changes to his line-up, which included dropping captain Tyrone Mings (£5.0m) to the bench, while Douglas Luiz (£4.6m) and Danny Ings (£7.8m) were both missing from the matchday squad.

“We had to shuffle the pack a little bit. We’ve had some forced pull-outs as well, I won’t go into specifics but a few soft-tissue injuries and a couple of Covid related issues. We’ve had to adjust it somewhat” – Dean Smith

However, a switch to a back-four system failed to have the desired effect, despite Emiliano Buendia (£6.3m) bagging his first Villa assist and Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) registering his third attacking return in his last four appearances. 

Elsewhere, Villa will be without the suspended Ezri Konsa (£4.9m) in Gameweek 11 after his red card, while John McGinn (5.8m) picked up his fourth booking of the campaign, and is now just one further yellow card away from a ban.

Jacob Ramsey’s (£4.5m) return to the starting XI unfortunately lasted only 15 minutes, too, after he rolled his ankle. The 20-year-old was replaced by Ashley Young (£4.8m) and is surely now a doubt for Friday’s trip to Southampton.

“I’m concerned when we lose any game, so yes – concerned that we’ve lost four games in a row. But I have a great belief in the quality we have that we’ll turn it around.

Sometimes this happens, and things go against you. We’ve had a couple of shots which probably register 0.03 on xG that end up in the bottom corner, and a young kid gets injured after a few minutes, and a poor red card which is incorrect.” – Dean Smith


Aston Villa XI: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Hause, Targett, Nakamba, McGinn, J Ramsey (Young 15), Buendia (Mings 52), Bailey (El Ghazi 72), Watkins

West Ham XI: Fabianski, Johnson, Zouma, Ogbonna, Cresswell, Soucek, Rice, Bowen (Vlasic 90+1), Fornals (Coufal 90+1), Benrahma (Lanzini 64), Antonio


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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

733 Comments Post a Comment
  1. AzzaroMax99
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Early gw11 team:

    Guaita
    Taa Chilwell Livramento
    Salah(C) Raphina Havertz ESR
    Vardy Antonio Wilson

    Steer Cancelo Omo DLuiz

    If no other issues, save FT?
    Main dilemma is who to start Antonio or Cancelo?

    1. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      Start Antonio

    2. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      Nice. I’d probs start Cancelo over Livra but yeah nice

  2. Ask Yourself
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Am I finally good to save for the first time this season?

    Ramsdale (WAT)
    TAA (whu) Cancelo (mun) Chilwell (BUR) Duffy (NEW)
    Salah (whu) Foden (mun) Havertz (BUR) ESR (WAT)
    Kane (ffs - eve) Toney (NOR)

    Foster Armstrong Livra Townsend

    1. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      yep, g2g. Put your feet up for the week

  3. tommo-uk-
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Roll FT or any changes advised?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Chilwell Livramento
    Salah(c) Foden Raphinha Saka
    Vardy Jimenez Toney

    Foster Cancelo Duffy Brownhill

    1. tommo-uk-
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      0.1m off upgrading Duffy to James which is annoying.

    2. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      Easy roll....the James funds might be useful to get Son next week (as will the second ft)

      1. tommo-uk-
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Not sure how I’m squeezing funds for Son…

  4. More Cowbell
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Would very much appreciate blanks from grey, jimi and hwang tonight! Some nice mini league gains have been made this week so don't want to give them away!

    1. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      I need Gray and Hwang to haul to save my GW.

  5. southernrocker1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Morning,

    Simple, from this next GW:

    A. Smith-Rowe
    B. Raphinha

    and why? (can't have both)

    1. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      A Arse are playing well and in form. Leeds just are not firing and don't see raph with the hauls ESR gets.

  6. Miniboss
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Sick of missing Chelsea defense points with Azpi. Should I swap for

    A) Chilwell
    B) James

    1ft

    1. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      Just hold

    2. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      I think Azpi is still safest in terms of likely number of starts. Chilwell has historically had less cameo appearances than James but I think James probably has a slightly higher ceiling in any individual game.

      Note Chelsea have let in a lot less goals than their xGC suggests so we might see a reversion in defensive returns.

      1. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 4 hours ago

        They are an elite defense better than the average xGC.

        1. NateDog
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          They have the biggest difference between xgc and gc (xgc is over 10, gc is just 3). I think ManOfKent is saying that they've had a bit of luck on their side and have allowed a lot more chances this season than last and it's likely to give at some point and I agree. They were incredibly lucky not to concede against Villa and Brentford in particular.

  7. TimoTime
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Gray > ESR the sensible move for GW11 onwards?

    Or am i overlooking someone else in that price bracket?

    1. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 4 hours ago

      ESR or Gallagher

  8. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Waiting on CL starting XIs first, but I'm considering Coady > James for a Chelski triple up.... Thoughts? 3M ITB

    Sanchez

    TAA, Chilwell, Christensen, Coady*

    Salah, Foden, Sarr, Mbeuno

    Vardy, Jimenez

    Subs: McGovern, Dier, Wood, Mendy

    1. ZeBestee
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Yes. Wolves as a whole do not inspire.

      1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Ta!

  9. ZeBestee
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    What will you change here?

    Sanchez
    Rud Dias Chilwell TAA
    Mbeumo Raph Salah Havertz
    Vardy Antonio

    Foster Hwang Livra Sissoko

    2FT 0.9 itb

    1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Nothing imo, unless you fancy upgrading the bench.

  10. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    Ramsdale ESR Livramento bench parade, should I roll FT or do Sarr>Gallagher in preparation of Dias>TAA? 1.2 ITB

    Ramsdale
    Cancelo Chilwell James
    Salah Raphinha ESR Mbeumo
    Kane Antonio Jimenez

    Livramento Sarr Dias Foster

  11. Live Scoutcast Tues 8pm - let us know your questions
    J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 4 hours ago

    **Scoutcast Tues 8pm**

    Not sure whose available to join me, as still quite early, but assuming its @SebWassell and @FplMode

    Let us know your questions and topics you'd like us to discuss here, ahead of #gw11 #fpl

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Has there ever been a bigger short-term overperformance in FPL history than Chilwell & Reece James’ recent results? (Understat XG stuff, Opta or FBref may be different)

      Chelsea Defensive overperformance:
      - Expected Goals Conceded: 10.18
      - Actual Goals Conceded: 3
      - Conceding goals below their XGc at a rate of approximately WTF - completely & utterly unsustainable

      Fullbacks Attacking overperformance:
      - Chilwell XG: 0.72
      - Chilwell goals: 3
      - Scoring at 316% above XG - will not continue

      - James XG: 0.96
      - James goals: 4
      - Also Scoring at >300% above XG - lol

      Compare these to the big guys from say City or Pool:

      Man City Defensively:
      - Expected Goals Conceded: 6.93
      - Actual Goals Conceded: 6
      - Current defensive *results* appear way more sustainable – generally much better defensive performances than either Chelsea or Pool

      Cancelo attacking performances:
      - XGi: 2.6
      - Actual Goal Involvement: 1 assist
      - Massive improvement potential (and pretty probable) in attacking output

      Liverpool Defensively:
      - Expected Goals Conceded: 11.05
      - Actual Goals Conceded: 8
      - Pretty big overperformance defensively - need to either reduce their XGc or they’ll very likely start conceding more goals… but they are in pretty much same ballpark as Chelsea defensively/performance-wise

      TAA attacking performances:
      - XGi: 4.14
      - Actual Goal Involvement: 3 assists
      - Pretty big improvement potential (and very probable) in attacking output

      Not saying don't buy the Chelsea lads obvs - but just don't buy them expecting anything like their recent points - those aren't very likely to occur again in our lifetimes

      Whereas Cancelo in particular looks a classic case of explosion imminent, and Trent isn’t far behind him

      As an accompaniment to the City/Pool high calibre fullbacks Chilly/Jimbo do make sense… But anyone trading Cancelo/Trent for the Chelsea over-performers just needs to be careful they aren’t walking into a standard blind left hook to the solar plexus from the FPL Gods

      1. ZeBestee
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Agree but I wouldn't take a huge importance for the Chelsea over performance metrics. Watch their game, and you will see why they are the best defence in the league. I still won't trade Cancelo or even Dias to one of Chelsea defenders, but TAA doesn't look essential this season, even with VVD back there is something you see missing in his games. Perhaps not selected for England in the Euros left a palpable effect on his confidence.

        1. ZeBestee
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Granted, TAA of course has the potential of doing great, and personally he won't leave my team anytime soon.

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 2 hours ago

            Why not get VVD instead?

        2. Ginkapo FPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Trent drops into midfield in attack this season rather than going wide. He still distributes well, but far more likely to assist the assister as far as fpl is concerned.

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            29 days, 22 hours ago

            That's probably why his xA/90 is an order of magnitude higher this season than it ever has been.

        3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Over the first 10 games they've been the second best defence in the league in terms of the quality of chances they've conceded

          (A fair bit behind City and slightly ahead of Liverpool)

          They've definitely benefitted from a lot of poor finishing and unsustainably good goalkeeping/shot stopping

          If they perform defensively the way they did in their first 10 games, and they aren't as lucky with poor finishing, they will concede a lot more than 3 goals in their next 10 games

          Still could get 4 or 5 cleansheets in those next 10 mind you, that's still very possible if you double their goals conceded

          But even then, they would still only be conceding 6 goals from their next 10 XGc which is just unrealistic as an expectation by all objective standards

        4. Goonsquad245
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 22 hours ago

          I really, really wish people would stop saying 'watch the games' as a counterbalance to plain as day stats.

          Someone was saying that a few weeks ago as part of their suggestion that Arsenal would lose to Palace, Villa, and Leicester.

          Eye test just isn't good enough to compete in the vast majority of cases.

      2. Miniboss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Was just planning to bring in another Chelsea defender for Cancelo but after reading this, might need to hold for a while. Thanks!

      3. Ginkapo FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Did you write this objectively or was it to confirm your pre season assumption that Trent and Cancelo are essential?

        In every Chelsea game the full backs are creating chances and ghosting into shooting positions. They may be outperforming their xGI but the key stat missing from xGI is quantity of shots and chances, for which they are getting a tonne.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          They aren't "outperforming their XGi" - they have taken their XGi, put it into a rocket, launched it into the atmosphere and waved goodbye at it as it hurtles away from the Earth and through space never to be seen again

          "In every game their fullbacks are creating chances..." - yes - Chilwell and James have 2 assists between them from 2 XA - which is reasonable & about where you'd expect, maybe 3 assists from 2 XA to account for them being above average in terms of quality of delivery

          "...and ghosting into shooting positions..." - yes - just not the type of shooting positions that lead to goals in all but the unlikeliest/luckiest of situations - not even prime Lio Messi scores 7 goals from every 1.6 XG - that is just off the charts in terms of sustainability - 2 goals from 1.6 XG, sure - 3 goals - possible but not sustainable over long runs for all but the most elite of finishers in world football... 4/5/6 goals from 1.6 XG? Good luck with sustaining that... SEVEN goals from every 1.6 XG? erm.... yeah that's not happening

          Using subjective phrases like "ghosting into shooting positions" doesn't change that unfortunately - loads of players "ghost into shooting positions"

          Objectively Chelsea's fullbacks are overperforming to an absolutely ridiculous (and completely unsustainable) degree - it will not continue unless they massively improve the quality of their chances received and chances created

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 2 hours ago

            xGI is based on types of chances. It doesnt account for the chances falling to fullbacks whilst the defence is preoccupied by the attackers. If you are going to rely heavily on stats you need to understand what they mean and what their limitations are.

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 1 hour ago

              The type of chances the Chelsea fullbacks have been getting in their time on the pitch are not enough to sustain 7 goals - it has been a short term freak/anomaly

              Dressing that up in “yeah but they’re ghosting into the box”, “yeah but they’re shooting a lot”, or even “yeah but you don’t understand XG” doesn’t change this

              They have been objectively over performing to a ridiculous (and totally unsustainable) degree

              1. Ginkapo FPL
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 1 hour ago

                No 'yes but'. You just dont understand xGI. Stubborness is not helpful to learning

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 1 hour ago

                  Sorry dude - no player/s will continue scoring 7 goals from 1.6 XGi in all but the most ridiculously unlikely of circumstances

                  Expecting Chilwell & James to continue scoring at this rate unless they get a massive increase in the quality of chances they’re receiving is going to lead to disappointment

                  It is what is - don’t shoot the messenger

                  1. Ginkapo FPL
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 1 hour ago

                    You are quoting xGI to defend the point that you dont understand xGI. To verify a statistical method you need to use a second method, not repeat the first.

                    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                      • 11 Years
                      1 month, 1 hour ago

                      Nope - I’m pointing out that no player/s will continue scoring 7 goals from 1.6 XGi in all but the most ridiculously unlikely of circumstances

                      And that expecting Chilwell & James to continue scoring at this rate unless they get a massive increase in the quality of chances they’re receiving is going to lead to disappointment

                      It’s a struggle to take in- and will possibly create dissonance & discomfort in certain circles - but it is what is unfortunately

                    2. Goonsquad245
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      29 days, 22 hours ago

                      Care to suggest a second statistical method? Because it's been proven that xG is far, far more predictive/descriptive than 'shots' or 'chances created' - and when you think about it it's obvious.

                      Someone having 10 shots per game from 35 yards for a total of 0.2xG is not better than someone having 1 shot per game at 0.6xG.

            2. Goonsquad245
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              29 days, 22 hours ago

              Of course it accounts for those chances, and weights them accordingly based on angle, defender/GK positioning, and whatever else you want to account for.

              Chances created/shot volume are poorer representations of xGI

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • 11 Years
                29 days, 22 hours ago

                Exactly - and even looking at those recent Chilwell/James results through any number of (inferior) lenses - number of shots, conversion rate etc etc....Even stacking them up against penalties helps to put into context the absolutely biblical nature of their recent statistical overperformance

                - 7 goals scored from their last 16 shots (16 shots with a combined XG of 1.6)

                A penalty carries an XG of roughly 0.75 (for every hundred penalties, roughly 75 will turn into goals) - and that's reflecting the fact that the majority of penalties will be taken by specialists who are way above the "average" top level professional footballer in terms of their ability to score a penalty

                Had Chilwell & Reece James been given 16 penalties instead of the 16 chances they actually received, you would have reasonably expected them to score maybe 11 or 12 goals - and could probably have excused them scoring maybe 9 or 10 on account of not actually being Penalty specialists

                To score 7 goals from those particular 16 chances is just ridiculous and needs to be recognised for what it is - a totally & utterly unsustainable statistical freak - not something that will ever reliably continue unless something massively improves in terms of the quantity & quality of chances they are receiving

                Backing away from penalties, (or a qualatative measure like XG) and just looking at raw quantative data/conversion rates...

                Chilwell:
                7 shots (Totalling 0.7 XG), 3 goals, 42.9% conversion

                James:
                9 shots (Totalling 0.96 XG), 4 goals, 44.4% conversion

                These guys are up in the mid-40's in terms of goal conversion - if that isn't unsustainable then I don't know what is

                Here is an article (from over a year ago but just for context) about the top 10 scorers in Europe at that point ranked by conversion rate instead of goals - spoiler alert - none of them are getting near the mid-30's, let alone mid-40's

                https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/best-conversion-rates-in-europe-lionel-messi-cristiano-ronaldo-jamie-vardy-pierre-emerick-aubameyang/

                And looking at a league level - the top 5 teams in the premier league last season for conversion rates:

                1. Spurs (Because of Kane) 68 goals from 584 shots = 11.6%
                2. Leciester (Because of Vardy) 68 goals from 613 shots = 11.1%
                3. Man Utd 73 goals from 680 shots = 10.7%
                4. Man City 83 goals from 786 shots = 10.6%
                5. West Ham 62 goals from 657 shots = 9.4%

                And so on and so on... 40-45% is just bonkers and sadly is incredibly unlikely to continue unless something massively improves in terms of the quality and quantity of chances they've been getting

                TLDR once again: Anyone expecting Chilwell & James to keep doing what they're doing from the chances they've been getting is unfortunately incredibly likely/effectively certain to be disappointed - and that's at both ends of the pitch (3 goals from 10XGc is unsustainable, and 7 goals from 1.6 XG is unsustainable)

                1. Goonsquad245
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  29 days, 21 hours ago

                  I have to say I admire your dedication to this 😀

                  Obviously agree. I think it's important to add that nobody is saying it makes them bad picks, but they're also not going to break Salah's record.

                  My view is that following this Burnley game they are average picks until fixtures clear up again.

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • 11 Years
                    29 days, 21 hours ago

                    Oh yeah absolutely - That's why I was at pains to point out clearly in the original post

                    "Not saying don't buy the Chelsea lads obvs - but just don't buy them expecting anything like their recent points - those aren't very likely to occur again in our lifetimes"

                  2. Flair
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    29 days, 11 hours ago

                    To add to this, rotation is going to play a bigger part once the nasty December schedule arrives and Livramento's fixtures will be turning poorer - add Cancelo, Dias (to a much lesser extent), Foden, and injury concerns/general rotation/rest in people's teams and the Chelsea fullbacks start to look much riskier.

      4. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Good analysis - I'm not expecting Chelsea to suddenly start leaking multiple goals every game, but conceding the odd one isn't at all unlikely. Mendy appears to have saved the defence quite a few times, and they're certainly one of the top defences but their numbers aren't sustainable.

        I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Burnley sneak a goal if they can maintain the level of performance they had at Brentford. Brentford were uncharacteristically poor, but Burnley were very good.

      5. The Rumour Mill
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Taking Laporte over James 3 weeks ago has been season defining for me, and not in a good way!

        It is a rediculous swing, but then the fixtures were there for the taking so its my fault for overlooking really. Perhaps hedging would have been lower risk and a lesson for the future, taking one of each of Chelsea and City rather than 2 City.

      6. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 11 Years
        23 days, 18 hours ago

        So yeah, as I was saying above:

        - Chelsea won't keep conceding 3 goals from 10 XGc & will concede a lot more in their next 10 games than their first 10

        - James & Chilwell aren't bad signings by any stretch but were so far into overachieving territory that any hope of them maintaining 7 goals from 1.6 XG was pie-in-the-sky & unfortunately we very likely won't see that type of scoring from them again in our lifetimes

        - And most importantly - *DO NOT*, under any circumstances, entertain sacrificing the true FPL MVP's, messers Trent and Cancelo to get any of the Chelsea overachievers - it's just asking for trouble, You know it, I know it, the stats know it - we all know it 🙂

    2. ZeBestee
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Is it the time to move on Antonio?
      Double up on Toney and Mbeumo?
      Is Son/Kane viable with the good fixture run?
      Gallagher or ESR?
      Triple Chelsea defence viable?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        No, the time to move on Antonio was when they started playing in the europa league.

        If Brentford attack was worth investing in then yes the double up would be wise. Please stop and ask yourself if the Brentford attack is prolific first though.

        No idea

        Both?

        Absolutely

        1. Cok3y5murf
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Ginkapo absolute genius for telling me to avoid Toney and Mbeumo. Although absolute weirdo for telling me that the fixtures were bad

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 2 hours ago

            Fixtures were bad. Still are

    3. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Who to sell, Jiminez or Antonio?

    4. Little Red Lacazette
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Is it wise ignoring City defenders and go with 2 CHE wingbacks?

    5. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      - what to do with Kane if you own him already, the team stinks!
      - if you own certain chelsea / city defensive assets, do you switch them around or stick with what you have already? (I sold James for Chilwell last week which worked a treat)
      - is there a secret formula to resist chasing points and roll 2ft into the IB 🙂

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 2 hours ago

        Why did you sell James for Chilwell? I think you need to understand that decision so you can learn to make better choices

        1. HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 2 hours ago

          Where were you went I posed this move during the week….
          Easy to say in hindsight but I wanted the more nailed player as I copped a couple of James cameos already and I thought Azpi would be returning. Didn’t foresee a 20 pointer and he was 50/50 on predicted lineups.
          Unfortunately I didn’t consider Dias to Chilwell

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 1 hour ago

            Sorry, I would have told you to get both. Making a marginal improvement to one player is a luxury we can rarely afford. Every move needs to remove waste and add a valuable asset. Chilwell to James removes one valuable asset for another, and that was true with foresight as well as hindsight.

            1. HMC
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 1 hour ago

              Not the right thread but what would you suggest here
              Seems a waste now moving to Dias to James but mighty tempting
              Trying to move Gilmour to ESR and Armstrong down to Broja (if fit) but a little short. Gray on my chopping block.

              Guiata
              Trent Dias Chilwell Livra
              Salah Foden Raph Gray
              Kane Antonio
              Steer White Armstrong Gilmour

              1. Ginkapo FPL
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 1 hour ago

                Do you want to be playing 4-4-2? Kane is a deadweight for you and could be changed to two players so Livra becomes first sub.

                I would do Dias to James at some point, but I'm more concerned by the lack of structure to that team. Unclear formation, unclear strategy and unclear price points.

    6. Ginkapo FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 1 hour ago

      Why is there such a strong desire to not admit errors in judgement the fpl community, preventing learning and entrenching unhelpful assumptions?

    7. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 mins ago

      Is it time to double up on Spurs assets or is 1 enough?

    8. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      29 days, 19 hours ago

      Update: Seb can't make it so Livramento style we've subbed in one third of the 3Amigos podcast - Kylie FPL.

    9. bencaraway
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      29 days, 2 hours ago

      James and Chilwell - the most reliable source of Chelsea attacking returns? In addition to, or replacements for TAA / Cancelo?

      1. Dammit_182
          28 days, 18 hours ago

          I was going to ask ‘which is the best captain this week, James or chilwell?’. Though TAA is not going anywhere

    10. Bavarian
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Sarr to:
      A-ESR
      B-Mbeumo
      C-Gallagher
      D-Other

      Havertz to:
      A-Foden
      B-Jota
      C-Other

      1. Miniboss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        What does the rest of the team look like?

        1. Bavarian
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Guaita (Steer)
          TAA-Rudiger-Cancelo (Livramento-White)
          Salah-Havertz-Sarr-Raphinha (Allan)
          Antonio-Vardy-Jimenez

          Have 2FT's and 1.0 ITB

          1. Miniboss
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 3 hours ago

            Mulling over ESR/Gallagher myself as well, slightly leaning to Gallagher atm. Havertz to Foden.

            1. Bavarian
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 3 hours ago

              Cheers mate

        2. Nath1210
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          I would really think about owning Trossard over the next 3 - 4 gameweeks. Brighton look a good side and have a good run of fixtures

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 3 hours ago

            Trossard can be a sneaky good little pick - one of these "high ceiling but never quite reaches it" type guys

            He's still the only player I've ever seen hit the left post, right post, and crossbar all in separate attacks, all in the same game

            (That mental 3-2 with Utd at the start of last season)

      2. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        AA

        1. Bavarian
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Thank you Drughi

    11. Tinfoil Deathstar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Need funds to get to Foden (for Sarr) in GW12. What is the best route with transfers this week? (0.8 ITB):

      A) Jimenez + Benrahma -> ESR/Mbeumo + Toney (-4) in GW11
      B) Jimenez -> Hwang

      Sanchez
      TAA - Cancelo - Chilwell
      Salah - Raphinha - Sarr - Benrahma
      Kane - Jimenez - Antonio

      Gunn; Livra, White, Allan

      1. Miniboss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Avoid double Brentford

        1. Tinfoil Deathstar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Yeah leaning towards ESR over Mbeumo.

        2. ManofKent
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Why? Fixtures are very good and they've only had one really poor game this season when Muembo was out.

          1. Tinfoil Deathstar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 3 hours ago

            Just because I’m not sure if I can trust a newly promoted team with an attacking double-up (I’d be getting Toney in as well).

    12. marcus2704
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Anyone who sold Ronaldo considering bringing him back in, and if so, at whose expense?

      1. Tinfoil Deathstar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Starting to regret shipping him
        out for Kane now in GW9. Although will likely reverse that move in GW16 now.

      2. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Atalanta game is crucial for OGS. Could be a sh*tshow if United are forced to get rid - I'd be waiting until after City at least.

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 3 hours ago

          Playing Cavani alongside Ronaldo was a master stroke, but with a combined age of 70, just how many games can they do this for?

    13. Hryszko
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      What would you look to do with this lot? Got 1FT and 0.2m in the bank. (don't really like having Gray on the bench so maybe move him to someone else, and upgrade elsewhere?

      Sanchez
      Trent - Rudiger - Cancelo - Chilwell
      Salah - Son - ESR
      Antonio - Toney - Vardy

      Steele - Gray - Livra - Sissoko

    14. Gudjohnsen
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Best option here

      A. Wilson
      B. Hwang
      C. Toney
      D. Watkins

      1. TheBiffas
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        I have D

    15. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      I'm undecided whether to get Son in GW12, but if I do would you bring him in for Foden or Havertz?

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Havertz imo

        Foden a much better player

      2. NateDog
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Havertz easily

    16. G B
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Spurs are so devoid of creativity. In their Champion's League Final season, Eriksen and Trippier were their two largest creators. Did they ever really replace those two? Even under Poch Spurs looked bad without those two.

      Thinking of waiting a week on Son and reassessing with 2FTs...

    17. AD2110
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Planning some upcoming transfers for Spurs’ fixture swing. Would you rather have:

      A) Kane, Antonio, Foden
      B) Vardy,Toney, Son (have Mbeumo)

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        A feels better imo

      2. thepancakeman123
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        B

      3. More Cowbell
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Tough one, but I like B. I don't think Kane's head is in the game

    18. thepancakeman123
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Is this team good to go without a transfer or do you see a transfer worth making? Or would you have a different bench?

      Sanchez
      Trent - Azpilicueta - Rudiger - Duffy
      Salah - Havertz - Raphinha - Gallagher
      Ronaldo - Toney

      Steele - Livramento - Sarr - Broja

    19. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Guys, is this a hold FT sort of week?

      Sanchez
      Liv, James, TAA
      Raph, Salah, Havertz, Foden
      Vardy, Antonio, Toney

      Steele, White, Shaw, Brownhil

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        If one ft then yeah

    20. waltzingmatildas
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Just Raya to Ramsdale here? Guaita worth a look?
      2fts 0.2itb

      Raya foster
      TAA cancelo Chilwell duffy livra
      Salah foden raph mbuemo normann
      Kane antonio toney

    21. Champione
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Where should I downgrade in order to get 0.4 for the Dias > TAA upgrade?

      Guaita
      Cancelo Dias Chilwell James
      Salah Foden Mount Raphinha
      Ronaldo Toney

      Steer Livramento Gray Richardson

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        Gray is your only real option there I think

    22. Mr Ozil
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Thoughts on Zaha?

      Palace have really nice fixtures and he has penalties.
      I think Zaha vs Gallagher is a tough decision

    23. Atimis
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Can I just log off until Friday? Done Raya to Ramsdale, keeping second FT.

      Ramsdale
      Azpi/Chilwell/Cancelo
      Salah/Son/Havertz/Raph/Mbeumo
      Vardy/Toney

      Foster/Liv/Duffy/4.4

    24. Cok3y5murf
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Is it true that if you're not in the Top 10k by GW10, you can't win FPL?

    25. Jdpz
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Best gk under 4.6m?
      Guaita? McCarthy? Krul?...

      1. Atimis
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        G

    26. mikeycee93
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Gallagher or ESR for next 4 at least? Can't make my mind up

    27. Jdpz
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Play
      A. Antonio vs Liverpool
      B. Livramento vs Aston Villa

      1. HMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        any other options, i'm playing both

    28. Hryszko
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 hours ago

      Didn't get a reply earlier, so any help welcome:

      What would you look to do with this lot? Got 1FT and 0.2m in the bank. (don't really like having Gray on the bench so maybe move him to someone else, and upgrade elsewhere?

      Sanchez
      Trent - Rudiger - Cancelo - Chilwell
      Salah - Son - ESR
      Antonio - Toney - Vardy

      Steele - Gray - Livra - Sissoko

      1. HMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 3 hours ago

        nothing pressing. some fixture swings coming, i'd put Livra first sub and roll the transfer