Mbeumo and Toney: Keep or sell for FPL Gameweek 12? What Scout readers think

We continue our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 11 Scout Notes with analysis of Brentford v Norwich City.

For a briefer summary of the weekend’s Premier League action, click here for Saturday and here for Sunday, while you can read up on the matches in more detail below.

All stats and graphics in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where there is still a seven-day free trial available.

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Brentford 1-2 Norwich City

• Goals: Rico Henry (£4.5m) | Mathias Normann (£4.5m), Teemu Pukki (£5.8m)
• Assists: Saman Ghoddos (£5.3m) | None
• Bonus: Henry x3, Normann x3, Pukki x3

MBEUMO/TONEY: KEEP OR SELL?

Owners of Ivan Toney (£6.7m) and/or Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) had a fleeting moment of joy on Saturday when the pair linked up to beat Tim Krul (£4.5m), only for VAR to play spoilsport and belatedly spot an offside on the ‘out of position’ FPL midfielder.

A case of fine margins and a Sliding Doors moment as overdue attacking returns consequently became hysteria-provoking blanks: for all their promising underlying numbers, it’s now six games without a goal for Toney and two returns in 10 appearances for Mbeumo.

We’re now two-thirds of the way through what was deemed to be an irresistible fixture run for the Bees but Burnley and Norwich City have seen off Thomas Frank’s hipsters’ favourites, and now even a trip to Tyneside is perhaps not the favourable match-up it previously looked given that Newcastle United will be buoyed by the appointment of Eddie Howe.

Toney and Mbeumo are suffering a small number of net transfers out ahead of Gameweek 12 overall but owners polled on our website are generally keeping the faith, with over 75% of responders retaining the full complement of Brentford attacking assets in their squads.

Newcastle are, it should be said, one of two clubs still without a clean sheet in 2021/22 and have conceded more big chances than any other side in the division. Might the adrenaline rush provided by Howe’s appointment, plus the adoption of what will likely be a more attacking shape, open up even more gaps at the back on Tyneside? It’s a straw to clutch for existing owners of Toney and Mbeumo but further blanks against another Premier League whipping boy would surely signal a wider exodus.

INJURIES TO BLAME?

Brentford have now lost four league games on the bounce, although it’s only really the last two where anything other than defeat was expected.

Injuries aren’t helping.

Thomas Frank was able to name more or less the same team in the first six Gameweeks, with 10 of his 11 starters ever-presents in that time and just one central midfield spot showing any change.

Since then, the Bees have lost first-choice goalkeeper David Raya (£4.5m), right-sided centre-half Kristoffer Ajer (£4.5m), central midfielders Vitaly Janelt (£5.0m) and Shandon Baptiste (£4.9m), and, briefly, Mbeumo to injury.

Added to that is a recurring hip problem that seems to be affecting Ethan Pinnock‘s (£4.7m) performance levels and, as of Saturday, a fresh issue for Ajer’s deputy, Zanka (£4.5m).

“I don’t know about Zanka’s injury – he got a minor one in training on Friday so I don’t know if it was the same one that stopped him continuing or another one. I will find out on Monday.

“We’ve been very unlucky with injuries so far, I think we have some of the most (in the Premier League). I think I have a fantastic medical staff so I think it’s been very very unlucky with the injuries we’ve got.” – Thomas Frank

The playing budget defender klaxon was sounded with the introduction of Charlie Goode (£3.9m) for Zanka, although the Bees’ current defensive woes – no clean sheets in six – do make investment in their backline less appealing than it did a month or two ago.

There are parallels with Sheffield United, who excelled in a largely injury-free debut Premier League campaign under Chris Wilder before fitness issues ravaged the squad in their relegation season. While Brentford are somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, injuries won’t be helping; the loss of Raya’s distribution skills and sweeper-keeping are particularly damaging at either end of the field.

NORGAARD: THE POUNDSHOP SOUCEK

Brentford are actually an eye-catching third for goal attempts and shots in the box over the last five Gameweeks. Look a little closer, though, and over half of their 76 efforts during this period have come from set plays.

Only six sides have a lower expected goals (xG) tally from open play in Gameweeks 7-11 but no-one can come close to matching the Bees’ xG total from set plays.

Brentford’s centre-backs have contributed a lot to that shot count but top of the pile over the last four Gameweeks is Christian Norgaard (£5.0m), a defensive midfielder by trade but a bit of a dead-ball magnet and emergency targetman when Frank’s side are attempting to claw back a deficit.

Norgaard can’t be beaten for goal attempts, shots in the box, big chances or xG by any of his teammates in these last four matches, with two gilt-edged opportunities from point-blank range testing Krul’s reflexes on Saturday alone.

Above: Christian Norgaard trails only Mohamed Salah for goal attempts among FPL midfielders in the last four Gameweeks

NORWICH PLAYERS TO MONITOR UNDER THEIR NEW MANAGER

As for Brentford’s conquerors, Norwich City strangely chose the aftermath of their first victory of the season to dismiss manager Daniel Farke.

Frank Lampard currently leads the bookies’ market to replace the sacked German but whoever is appointed in the Carrow Road hotseat, they face a battle to win the faith of FPL managers given what the Canaries have served up not just this season but in their previous campaign in the top flight in 2019/20.

There are names to monitor. The set-piece-taking Milot Rashica (£5.2m) has had eight shots – the joint-best among FPL midfielders – since returning to the starting XI in Gameweek 10, while Saturday goalscorer Mathias Normann (£4.5m) loves a crack at goal from distance and is arguably the pick of the £4.5m-and-under midfielders.

Above: £4.5m-and-under midfielders sorted by goal attempts in 2021/22

Billy Gilmour (£4.4m) could come back into the thinking for bench fodder duties if Lampard is appointed, while Teemu Pukki (£5.8m) is, for all his profligacy from open play, on spot-kicks for the Canaries and was on target from 12 yards against Brentford.

The truth is, however, that Norwich are bottom of the table for a reason. FPL managers will want an audition period to see if Farke’s successor can transform the East Anglian club into anything other than also-rans and once that ‘wait and see’ chapter is over, the fixtures aren’t great thereafter.

Brentford: Fernandez, Jorgensen (Goode 12′), Jansson, Pinnock, Canos, Janelt (Ghoddos 46′), Norgaard, Jensen, Henry (Forss 69′), Mbeumo, Toney

Norwich City: Krul, Aarons, Omobamidele, Gibson, Williams, Normann, McLean, Lees-Melou, Dowell (Giannoulis 74′), Pukki (Sargent 78′), Rashica (Idah 90′)