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The FPL players who are most underperforming their xG ahead of Gameweek 12

Among the underlying statistics on offer in our Members Area is expected goals (xG), which many will be familiar with already. 

Simply put, xG is the measure of a quality of shot based on criteria such as proximity to goal and angle of attempt. For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals they should be scoring.

However, it also gives us an opportunity to identify those who are underperforming in front of goal, via their xG delta. This is calculated by subtracting the xG figure from actual goals scored.

So, in this, our latest Fantasy Football Scout Members article, we’ve analysed the top xG underachievers in each respective category ahead of Gameweek 12. Ideally, we’d look at a player’s goalscoring expectation over a longer period of time, but focusing on this season’s data alone does reveal some interesting findings, which we’ll explore below.

FORWARDS

Scout Notes 4

601 Comments Post a Comment
  1. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    STOP, STOP, he's already dead!

  2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Concern for Ramsdale owners he has got rigor mortis its cold out there

  3. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    was hoping Saka and ESR would save the goals for the weekend

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      They won’t play San Marino every week

      1. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        true that, only face them 4 times a year in qualifiers

  4. Meechoo115
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Auba + Jiminez >> Armstrong + Kane -4?

    1. Amartey Partey
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yes. That's a good move.

  5. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Current WC team:

    Ramsdale 4m
    Cancelo TAA James Livramento Reguilon
    Salah Jota Raphinha X X
    Antonio 4,5m X

    Who should the X's be?

    A. Foden Son Hwang
    B. ESR Gallagher Kane

    Thanks

    Thanks.

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Herogrows
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A. Two top players in that

    4. KieranKA
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    5. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    6. HonestBlatter
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  6. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I'm starting to think England might win this game... So close to Qatar... c'mon hang in there!

  7. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best move out of these?

    A. Havertz to Son
    B. Vardy/Havertz to Kane/Jota -4

    Sanchez
    TAA Chilwell Cancelo Livra
    Salah Raphinha Havertz Mbeumo
    Vardy Antonio

    Steele ESR Dennis Marcal

    1. KieranKA
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  8. Apollo Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    For a -4:

    A. Vardy, Saka, Mbeumo > Wilson, Son, Gallagher

    B. Vardy, Jimenez, Mbeumo > Kane, Hwang, Raphinha

    1. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A just. As I like Jiminez

      1. Apollo Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Feel like A gives more balance in midfield and across the front three, starting to look like the Kane/Son decision though.

    2. KieranKA
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't take a hit to sell these players. How much do you have itb?

      1. Apollo Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        £1.0m exactly

  9. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bellingham has been anonymous.

  10. Isca Extremadura
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Used car salesman had him in his pocket

  11. Tomas_brolin
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    All boils down to this for me. Please advise.

    Havertz and Vardy for 2FTs to
    A ESR and Kane
    B Son and C Wilson

    Was B but getting tempted by A...

    1. KieranKA
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

      1. Gingerman
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Kane knows what it's like to score goals again.

  12. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Peacock Farrell MVP Vs Italy well played

    1. Dammit_182
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Holding Italy to a clean sheet is pretty impressive. Burnley just stock up on goal keepers and defenders. They Collect them.

  13. KieranKA
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Trying to close in on my final decision for GW12. Which combination do you prefer?

    OPTION A:
    Reguilón vs. Leeds (H), Burnley (A), Brentford (H), Norwich (H)
    Mbeumo vs. Newcastle (A), Everton (H), Spurs (A), Leeds (A)
    Vardy vs. Chelsea (H), Watford (H), So'ton (A), Villa (A)

    OPTION B (–4):
    James vs. Leicester (A), United (H), Watford (A), West Ham (A)
    Jota vs. Arsenal (H), So'ton (H), Everton (A), Wolves (A)
    Wilson vs. Brentford (H), Arsenal (A), Norwich (H), Burnley (H)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  14. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sell Vardy or Auba?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

    2. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Auba

  15. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Nice one Northern Ireland!

    Drawing against a Euro Finalist is good going.

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Scotland beating Denmark too. Nice results for the UK...

    2. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Great result

  16. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    San Marino win the wooden spoon with a goal difference of -45

  17. Isca Extremadura
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Fair play to NI & Scotland - great results

    1. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      This

  18. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Robertson injury apparently. Tsmikas back on the menu..

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Hope robbo will be ready but Tbh tsmikas always plays well when he is on the pitch.. Deserves to start.

  19. Lanley Staurel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Why can’t the bottom 8 ranked teams in Europe all play in the same league and the top team joins the play offs from the other groups?

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yes cricket do this the right way.

    2. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Because they vote

  20. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Why is everyone dumping Havertz?

    1. Meechoo115
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Because Lukaku Werner back soon and he has been poor

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      His face is annoying

    3. Pancake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I have him … by a thread

    4. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Son, Foden, Jota, Raphinha, Gallagher, ESR, Zaha…..

  21. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Given Son's great home record even when Spurs struggled a lot,
    I think the question is not "Kane or Son?"
    but it's: "Kane in addition to Son?"
    p.s. Kane's 7 goals in the last 2 matches with England dont necessarily make me trust him tbh

    1. Kellz86
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I mean his league form has been way way off, but given the heart break of the Euros and his failed summer move I can understand.

      Just hoping this launches his confidence because he’s a proven 20+ goal season striker and I just brought him in for Vardy

    2. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Spending nearly a quarter of your budget on Spurs attackers? Really? Who’s asking that? You can only captain one of them and with the immense value in defence, as well as midfield, can’t see why you’d double up.

      Kane’s goals in these International matches are irrelevant, playing barely professional players.

      Conte is a great manager but people’s expectations are quite high, Spurs still have hardly creativity and it’s not his team. Another thing, Leeds aren’t going to go there and just roll over, like many think they will.

      1. Shark Team
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I agree

      2. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Agreed, Leeds will attack Spurs which will suit their counter attacking recent style.

        1. Qaiss
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Leeds will attack but I don’t think they’ll be naive and let Spurs walk through them. They’ve been better defensively recently.

          Can see a close game, 1-0 either way or something.

          1. _Freddo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Their last few games have been against teams who struggle to score goals, I'm not sure you can read too much into that with regards to them being defensively solid as you can with England pumping San Marino.

            1. Qaiss
              • 8 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              And now they’re going to play Spurs who are also struggling to score goals.. 🙂

              1. _Freddo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                2 years, 4 months ago

                I guess that's why many are piling in on Son......

    3. McGazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I reckon low risk with upside to do Vardy to Kane now
      Vardy has such a bad fixture I’d probs bench him
      Kane has confidence, a tonne of recent goals, a fresh start, a hunger to impress Conte & Pep, instructions from conte to play higher up, better service from overlapping wing backs.
      Doesn’t guarantee success but it’s a decent roll of the dice
      With a simple out to lukaku in a week or two if you have buyer’s remorse

  22. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Imagine the fantasy points in that England game today…

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Would still captain Salah.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Haha cs and 3x assists for Trent though

  23. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Ramsdale (foster)
    Taa james livra cancelo (duffy)
    Salah foden gallagher (esr raphinha)
    Kane antonio hwang

    What about starting XI??

  24. RWB_1991
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Corner or Greenwood for GW12?

    1. RWB_1991
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      *Cornet

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Greenwood. Dont want to limit yourself to just a corner flag.

      1. RWB_1991
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Haha

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cornet goes to Africa, so he is no long term option.

  25. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Want Gallagher or a new Keeper but possibly Trent is more urgent?

    A Rudiger > Trent?

    B Get Gallagher?

    C Guita, Rambo?

    Sa
    Rudiger, Chilwell, Cancelo, Livramento
    Salah, ESR, Foden
    Vardy, Toney, Auba

    Steele, Mbeumo, Tierney, Sissoko

    1.9

    1. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Keep Sa for next 3, Vardy to kane. Mbeuemo to Gallagher next week maybe. Downgrade Auba to do Tierney to trent when you can. Surgery needed here.

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Thinking a hit this week & next to sort it out?

        1. Gingerman
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Vardy got decent fixtures coming up so maybe Auba to Hwang, mbeumo to son possible?

  26. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I have Kane already so which move is best?

    A) Vardy —> Ronaldo (c)

    B) Vardy and Gray —> Son (c) and Wilson (-4)

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      a

    2. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Vardy got decent fixtures after Chelsea, and Wilson will be injured in 2 weeks

  27. winchester
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Have 1.4m itb and 2ft. What would the best move be here lads?
    Cheers.

    ramsdale
    taa - cancelo - james
    salah - raphinha - mbeumo - son
    antonio - vardy - hwang

    (foster - livramento - duffy - luiz)

    1. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Decent team, I'd rather have Gallagher or ESR over mbeumo going forward.

  28. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who would you play here?

    A Livramento (nor)
    B Vardy (CHE)

    Thanks

    1. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Flip a coin

      1. Gingerman
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Vardy got higher ceiling I think

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Not even certain about that. Livra's ceiling is cs, assist and goal. Whether that is more likely than Vardy hattie, not certain.

          1. Gingerman
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            I think Vardy is more likely to get a couple than a Livramento goal or assist, but a clean sheet is very likely. Livramento safer option basically.

            1. Gingerman
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              Vardy often does well against the big boys

  29. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    RMWCT?

    Sanchez ¦ Steele
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell Reguilon Livramento
    Salah Jota Raphinha Gallagher Mbeumo
    Kane Wilson Davis

    1. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Mbeumo done nothing to warrant inclusion apart from hit the post a lot and James over Chilwell

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        He has to go anyway when fixtures change soon, people are selling him already.

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      James and Chillwell, drop reguilon and mbeumo, see if that money works. If I had the WC think I’d do the double up.

      1. ZakyJ
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I have the double up currently but can't fit Jota in. See below

    3. Yes Ndidi
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      If that's 442, there's cheaper ways of getting 2 points out of your bench midfielder.

  30. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    *checks Tsmikas price*

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      3.9m. Goodness, what a facilitator

      1. Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        What was said about Robertson?

      2. Garth Marenghi
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        How many weeks does Robertson have to be out for it to be worth a transfer?

      3. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Salah and TAA are "essential" and many will want Jota.

        1. McGazza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          This.

      4. Yes Ndidi
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        If only Jota didn't look such cracking value for the rest of the year..