Pro Pundit Teams

Is Antonio a keep or sell and is Alonso a good Chilwell replacement in FPL?

We are now approaching the business end of the season and the Gameweeks will come thick and fast. As Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we need to react and absorb information over a short period. There is no room for passengers.

Speaking of passengers, I want to start off this article talking about FPL’s top-scoring forward – Michail Antonio (£8.2m).

It’s just one goal in the last six matches for the West Ham United striker, so let’s have a look at his numbers.

MICHAIL ANTONIO: KEEP OR SELL?

Above: Forwards sorted by expected goal involvement (xGI) in Gameweeks 1-6

Antonio notched 47 of his 63 points in the first six Gameweeks, despite missing one game due to suspension.

He topped the numbers for forwards in that period, with a whopping 21 shots in the box, 11 chances created and seven big chances. He was also top for expected goal involvement (xGI) (5.21) by some distance.

Above: Forwards sorted by expected goal involvement (xGI) in Gameweeks 7-12

A look at the last six weeks sees a significant drop in his numbers. While his chance creation has actually gone up (12 from 11), his shot volume has dropped massively (10 shots in the box vs 21 earlier). There have been only two big chances, too, which sees his xGI fall to just 2.39, less than half of his Gameweek 1-6 total. Again, it’s worth mentioning he played one game fewer in the previous sample. 

We discussed the merits of premium wing-backs in our latest episode of The FPL Wire. With Chilwell’s injury, you can easily substitute Alonso into the conversation. I highly recommend watching it. 

Good luck and see you next week. 


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466 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gooner97
    • 8 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    Sanchez (Foster)
    Cancelo TAA Chilwell* (Livra, Amartey)
    Salah Son Foden Jota ESR
    Antonio Hwang (Broja)

    Would you take a hit in order to sell Chilwell? Or play Livramento?
    No FTs left...

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      I'd take the hit

      1. Gooner97
        • 8 Years
        10 days, 6 hours ago

        Who'd you get? Alonso or Reguilon/another?

        1. Invincibles
          • 7 Years
          10 days, 6 hours ago

          I think Rudiger is being overlooked - nailed and could easily score against a utd team that's poor on set pieces.

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      I would take the hit for Alonso

  2. Wolfman180
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    Chilwell & Foden to Alonso & Jota for a hit?

    1. Gooner97
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Yes imo

    2. I am 42
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      either not both imo

    3. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Yep

    4. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Yep

    5. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Thanks 🙂

      1. I am 42
        • 8 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        maybe you should consider changing the way you post your question

        who will score more?
        Jota or
        Foden + 4

        1. ebb2sparky
          • 11 Years
          10 days, 5 hours ago

          That sounds like a different question to me.

  3. I am 42
    • 8 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    play livra means free cs

    1. Gooner97
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      How come?

      1. I am 42
        • 8 Years
        10 days, 6 hours ago

        assuming you transfer Chiwell to James and James got cs only aka 6 points

        it's equivalent to Livra scoring 2

        1. Gooner97
          • 8 Years
          10 days, 6 hours ago

          In my case, that's a yes.

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      What?

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Assuming he gets 2 points. More likely Soton concedes at least 2 goals and Livramento 1 pointer

    4. Finding Timo
      • 1 Year
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      I have option to play livra rather than use a transfer to get chilly out but surely Sou concede min of 1 of 2 goals so at best he will only get 1 or 2 pts?

  4. dshv
    • 4 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    Would you swap foden or just to play Antonio

    1. denial
      • 12 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Is Foden definitely out for the weekend?

      1. Invincibles
        • 7 Years
        10 days, 6 hours ago

        It's Pep - wont know until line up is announced.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Only if out for the weekend

  5. House Frey Wedding Planner
    • 3 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    Start one.

    A - Antonio
    B - King

    1. Bleh
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      B

    2. I am 42
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      B

      I'm thinking of starting Gilmour ahead of Antonio

    3. NateDog
      • 1 Year
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      B

    4. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      B

  6. Bleh
    • 4 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    I’m sure this has been asked plenty of times before but one last time:

    Chilwell to (FT):

    A. James
    B. Alonso
    C. Reguilon

    Other defenders are TAA, Cancelo, Duffy and Livra.

    1. Invincibles
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Defo James

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 3 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      James

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      James

    4. Bleh
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Thanks all 🙂

  7. Invincibles
    • 7 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    A) Duffy + Mbuemo > James, 4.7 (-4)
    B) Duffy + Foden > James, Bernardo (-4)
    C) play Mbuemo.

    Can do B with exact funds so would need to do it quickly.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      Problem is we want get more info on Foden until tomorrow

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        10 days, 6 hours ago

        we won't*

    2. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      i think mbeumo is fine to play this week but you need james in, whats your team, be interested to see if you have other options to get him in

      1. Invincibles
        • 7 Years
        10 days, 6 hours ago

        Sanchez, 4.0
        TAA, Cancelo, Rudi, Livra, Duffy
        Mbuemo Salah Foden Raph Gallagher
        Kane Antonio Broja
        1.0 itb.

        Any advice welcome!

  8. Dynamic Duos
    • 8 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    G2G here?

    Sanchez
    TAA Cancelo Tierney
    Salah (c) Son Jota Gallagher
    Jesus Jimenez Toney

    Foster Chilwell Livramento Sissoko

  9. ZTF
    • 7 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    Start ASM or Antonio?

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 6 hours ago

      easily ASM imo

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      ASM

    3. EugeMurts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      ASM

  10. grumpyman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    10 days, 6 hours ago

    It’s generally understood that the best performing managers take less hits than average ones. Despite this, I’ve always regarded myself as being pretty good at judging the risk/reward balance of hits. I make sure I track each hit over a period of three weeks and measure the effect on my overall team score.

    Last season I was 49 points up on my hits (I made 53 in total over the season). And the year before I was 22 points up. Pretty good.

    This season I had a great start, 24 points up on my first hit after just one week!

    I just updated my spreadsheet. Even after that great start I’m a total of 45 points DOWN on my hits so far. The most damaging hit in terms of impact was Havertz and Vardy in for Lukaku and Benrama in GW9, which cost me 25 points over three weeks.

    Basically, I’ve had a shocker.

    Anyone else keep a record of their hits to see how successful they’ve been?

    1. grumpyman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      *53 TRANSFERS not hits, LOL

    2. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      I don't think you are looking at the right numbers. It's not about whether you are up compared to no hits, but what you could have achieved by taking fewer hits instead. For instance by waiting a week instead, or perhaps choosing an even better asset with your free transfers.

    3. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Yes, I definitely do. Is what you do similar to this? https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2021/10/08/points-gained-over-the-lifetime-of-a-transfer/

      I didn't track this in so much detail last season, but I was able to see that my success rate for hits was 0/2 in SGWs, 2/3 in BGWs, 2/2 in DGWs/TGWs. No wonder people like Fabio only take hits in DGWs/BGWs.

  11. Fuddled FC
    • 9 Years
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Any tweets or rumours about the following chances of starting?

    a) Foden
    b) Gray

    I'll need to take the one who isn't starting out

    1. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      I think you need to lose Gray regardless if he starts or not

      1. Fuddled FC
        • 9 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        That would a luxury I can't afford as my bench is terrible for this match

      2. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        this

    2. Hiiler
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Hard to say, both might miss out and both might be needed to play, because of injuries and/or suspensions.

  12. Danstoke82
    • 7 Years
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Hi all

    These moves yay or nay?

    Foden + ESR > Bernardo + Jota

    Thanks in advance

    1. Invincibles
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Wait on Foden news and maybe > bernardo.

      Keep ESR for newcastle.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      No

      1. Danstoke82
        • 7 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        Thanks both

  13. GoonerByron
    • 10 Years
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Which of these to do?

    A - Start Normann for 1 GW, no hit

    B - Manquillo -> Alonso/City def for -4, Normann 1st sub

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      B - hit will pay off

    2. Invincibles
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      B defo

  14. Sturridge Wars
    • 6 Years
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Which one to bring in Can only have 1 at this stage.

    A) Cancelo
    B) Reece James

    1. Invincibles
      • 7 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      James

    2. Gooner97
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Cancelo, no brainer.

    3. Yankee Toffee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      a

  15. Hryszko
    • 4 Years
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Do we think Jesus will start at the weekend?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Yeah rested now and on good form

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      I think Pep will protect Foden and play Jesus CF, Sterling LW and Mahrez RW.

    3. Yankee Toffee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      yes imo

  16. Dave2008
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    10 days, 5 hours ago

    Chilwell out for
    A Alonso
    B Rudiger
    C Reguilón
    I'm thinking B A C.
    Thanks in advance.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      ABC

    2. TopBinFc
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        Tough one, B maybe, guaranteed to start, Alonso probably nailed too

      • House Frey Wedding Planner
        • 3 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        Alonso

      • SoulShakinTex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        In similar thoughts. Considering C myself to free up a little bit of funds.

    3. dshv
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Start foden so first on the bench

      1. Antonio
      2. Duffy
      3. Livra

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        1

      2. SoulShakinTex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        2-1-3 for me

    4. SoulShakinTex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      How to replace Chilwell? Have TJCC + Livra at the back now, and don’t want to start Livra this week.
      A) Chill to Reg, Gilmour to Jota and Antonio to Pukki for a -8
      B) Chill to Reg and Raph to Jota for -4
      C) Just Chill to Reg for a FT, and save the 0.8 for later
      D) Chill to Rudi for a sideways FT and no chance of upgrading midfield
      E) Play three at the back this week, wait for news on Chilwell and have 2FTs next week. Would mean starting Gilmour now.

      Cheers!

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        D- A lot of games in a short period. Minimum 1 week out (highly unlikely) is 3GWs. Latest reports are he is out until at the end of this year

        1. SoulShakinTex
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 days, 5 hours ago

          Thanks. Am trying to strenghten bench for festive season, but would also like to upgrade mid of Salah/Raph/Galla/Saka/Gilmour

    5. SKENG
      • 5 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      With Foden doubtful, would you do Foden > Jota for -4? If Foden misses I will get Brownhill off the bench.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        I'm strongly considering this as it allows me to do Duffy to Alonso (4th premium def) in GW14.

    6. ebb2sparky
      • 11 Years
      10 days, 5 hours ago

      Should I use my free transfer to get Gallagher or ESR in for Townsend? Townsend isn’t in my starting XI so would need to bench Antonio to play one of them. Maybe best just to save my transfer and have 2 next week?

      1. SoulShakinTex
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        I’d use it and bench. Even considering losing Ant and bringing back later.

    7. Prinzhorn
        10 days, 5 hours ago

        A) Havertz -> Jota this GW + Chillwell -> Cancelo GW 14
        B) Havertz & Chillwell -> Jota & Cancelo (-4) and Dias -> James GW 14

        I have Livra and TAA too. Next to Chillwell no other CHE-def.

        1. SoulShakinTex
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          10 days, 5 hours ago

          Can you not do Dias and Chilwell for Cancelo and James straight away?

          1. Prinzhorn
              10 days, 5 hours ago

              No I need the funds from Havertz (0.4 ITB)...

              1. SoulShakinTex
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                10 days, 5 hours ago

                Maybe Chil to James first then.

                1. SoulShakinTex
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  10 days, 5 hours ago

                  They all seem sensible moves, but not minus-eight-sensible…

                  1. Prinzhorn
                      10 days, 5 hours ago

                      It would be a minus-4 for the second option which i'm considering most if Jota is 100% fit.

          2. CroatianHammer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            10 days, 28 mins ago

            No Antonio this evening. Moyes has all but said he'll be starting the next three league games.
            Chilwell I also have, but likely to fade a price drop before he's confirmed red flag meaning I'm okay to hold one more week. TAA maybe the move. I'll decide on that after the weekend.

          3. FCSB
            • 5 Years
            9 days, 22 hours ago

            Jeez wish I went Jota instead of Son last week

          4. hogree
            • 4 Years
            9 days, 17 hours ago

            Start Semedo (nor) or take a hit for Chilwell --> Alonso?