Cash an FPL differential for Gameweek 21 and beyond

Gameweek 21 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leicester City, Burnley and Aston Villa, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

*Please note that this article was written before the postponement of Leicester’s clash with Norwich City and the Double Gameweek 21 announcement.

MATTHEW LOWTON

• FPL ownership: 1.7%
• Price: £4.4m
• GW21-25 fixtures: lee | LEI | ars | MUN | LIV

On first glance, investing in a Burnley defender ahead of Gameweek 21 probably doesn’t make much sense, with games against Manchester United x2, Leeds United, Leicester City and Arsenal in the next five.

However, Sean Dyche’s side also have four matches still to be rearranged after being hit by Covid and weather postponements – Everton (h), Aston Villa (a), Watford (h) and Tottenham Hotspur (h) – which suggests they should see plenty of Double Gameweek action early next year.

That raises the appeal of budget defender Matthew Lowton (£4.4m), who has already produced four attacking returns across his 15 Premier League appearances this season. The right-back also features amongst the top three performers at his club for big chances created and final-third touches, plus defensive metrics like tackles won, interceptions, recoveries and clearances.

Burnley remain in the bottom three but do have up to four games in hand on some of their relegation rivals, whilst it’s also worth noting that they have only lost one of their last six games, albeit with four draws. During that run, they have kept clean sheets against Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United, conceding just six goals in total, with their 7.90 expected goals conceded (xGC) figure ranking ninth amongst all teams when applying the ‘last six matches’ filter.

Priced at just £4.4m, Lowton offers a cheap route into Burnley’s defence, and could be a nice set and forget option given his potential for future Doubles.

MATTY CASH

• FPL ownership: 4.3%
• Price: £5.0m
• GW21-25 fixtures: bre | MUN | eve | LEE | new

Matty Cash (£5.0m) has played an integral role for Aston Villa since the appointment of Steven Gerrard.

During that time, his team have conceded just eight goals in seven matches, despite a tough schedule which has included games against all of the current top three: Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool.

And that improved defensive stability, combined with the 24-year-olds attacking threat from wide areas, could make him a shrewd differential pick for Fantasy managers.

In recent weeks, Villa have been defending much better, which is reflected in the numbers. Over their last seven matches, they have allowed just 6.69 non-pen xGC and also kept clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and Norwich City.

However, Cash’s appeal is further boosted by his attacking threat. Since the beginning of the season, the right-back ranks second amongst all defenders for penalty area touches, sixth for attempts in the box and ninth for final-third touches. For context, his 14 shots in the box is only one behind team-mate Danny Ings (£7.7m).

Villa now face a Brentford side who have failed to score in each of their last two matches and will once again be without the influential Rico Henry (£4.5m), who usually operates on the side Cash will be attacking. It’s also worth noting that fixtures against Watford (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a) and Southampton (h) follow the ones detailed above, and as a result, it’s no surprise to see Gerrard’s side topping our Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 21 and 28.

Cash is an exciting footballer, and with his ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch, is a tempting investment given Villa’s schedule.

YOURI TIELEMANS

• FPL ownership: 3.8%
• Price: £6.4m
• GW21-25 fixtures: NOR | bur | BHA | liv | WHU

Belgium international Youri Tielemans (£6.4m) has developed into one of the best box-to-box midfielders in the Premier League since his move to Leicester City.

Across his 14 league appearances in 2021/22, he has produced five goals and two assists. As a result, his 5.0 points per match tally is more than team-mates James Maddison (£6.9m) and Jamie Vardy (£10.4m), plus others in his category like Jarrod Bowen (£6.6m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.3m). Notably, he has also posted team-leading totals for chances created, touches in the opponent’s half and successful crosses, while his all-round ability lends itself to bonus points, with only three midfielders in the entire division collecting more than his 11 this term.

Following Tuesday’s 1-0 win over Liverpool, the Foxes’ now face a Norwich City side that has failed to score in any of their last five matches, conceding a whopping 14 goals in the process, with an appealing trip to Burnley to follow. There are also two further games to be rearranged due to Covid postponements – Everton (a) and Tottenham Hotspur (h) – which raises the prospect of a Double Gameweek.

The injury situation at Leicester certainly isn’t ideal, with manager Brendan Rodgers recently slamming the festive fixture schedule as “ridiculous”. However, if Gameweek 21 does indeed come too soon for Vardy, who limped off against Liverpool and will be assessed ahead of the visit of Norwich, it may give Tielemans’s prospects a further boost, as it’s highly likely he will be on penalties.

Tielemans has been a crucial player for a while now, and having been handed a first-half rest earlier this week, should be raring to go in Gameweek 21.