Pro Pundit Teams

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!


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2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    A 3.7m gift on FH?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Was Robbo subbed due to injury or just rest?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Looked injured yeah

      2. Shineonme
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Looked f***** to me

    2. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      With the team that might start around him, maybe not.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Haha true

    3. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Going to be a lot of money spare on FH with Salah seemly going to be out and Timmy at 3.7 an option too haha

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Son Kane Kev and Trent use a canny bit

        1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          That’s true mate!! If you have that Everton defender who’s surname I can’t spell instead of TAA there’s a lot left haha, Have always had Timmy on my FH team bench anyway

  2. PartyTime
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Just give City the title already

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Shush!

  3. Dynamic Duos
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Play Nketiah or Mount?

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Mount

    2. bjarnia87
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Mount

    3. sulldaddy
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Mount

  4. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Any thoughts on Mahrez for FH? Havent played since Madrid and Pep loves to play him against teams who sit deep. Also on pens too

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Wolves sit deep.

      It's Pep... have a good 1st sub.

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Wolves play a back 5 though. He usually needs a lot of width when playing against wingbacks

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      1 pt cameo risk is another worry

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Just seems even strange for Pep to bench Mahrez 3 games in a row you know?

  5. umerlfc
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Who to score the most points in GW37?

    A) TAA
    B) Robbo
    C) Jota
    D) Diaz
    E) Maddison

    1. lilmessipran
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I'd say E even though he might not be that popular

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Diaz?

  6. Tsparkes10
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Thoughts?

    Pickford
    Digne Cash Mykolenko
    Dias Zaha Coutinho Son
    Rich Vardy Kane
    (Foster, Tsimikas, Amartey, Brownhill)

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Not sure on Vardy, need Ings?

  7. JohannaAdams10
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Does Havertz play v Leicester you think?

  8. jimmyharte
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Anyone on non FH bringing in Vardy?

    1. BeaversWithAttitude
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Thinking about it! I fancy Vardy to go on an end of season run. He canny and runs pretty fast for an old dude.

  9. yousunkmybattleship
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Put all your money on Barkley to miss a pen

  10. No Need
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Barkley on to blast a pen over the bar this time

  11. moment
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Um what did RLC do wrong?

  12. jimmy6363
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    L. Diaz to Zaha for a hit?

  13. lilmessipran
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Wait so he used 2 subs on RLC but did not use one to bring on Werner against tired legs?

    1. moment
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      It's the real life equivalent of two -4s back to back

  14. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Good to go here? On FH

    Pickford
    (C)ash Digne Mykolenko
    KDB Son Zaha Maddison
    Kane Vardy Ings

    (3.9 Gordon Tsimikas 3.8) 0.4

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Yeah, looks brill

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Thanks

        1. jason_ni
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Lol

          Richa over ings?
          Hard to know.

          1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            I don't trust in Everton's attack

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Brilliant team!

  15. bjarnia87
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Chasing ,40 behind in mini leage.

    Thinking to sell salah to KDB since 1st place has Salah , a gamble :

    A) salah,ings, couthinio
    Vs
    B) KDB, vardy, Rodrigo

    Is B good differential?

  16. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    salah injury looking bad?

    1. Yozzer
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Says sore groin. Just a precaution on talk sport Probably fine

  17. No Need
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Alonso looks a new player lately

  18. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    FH attacking line of Son, Zaha, KDB, Sterling, Kane, Richa and Ings now template?

    1. moment
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Not sure if Sterling will be in the template, but the rest for sure

    2. Sailboats
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Not sterling

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Diaz or Maddison instead?

    3. No Need
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Most people just seem to want to burn all their cash on FH rather than get the best players for it imo

    4. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Jota should be template soon

    5. The Nuttman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I think I'd have a 5th midfield over Richarlison.

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Which 5 man midfield do you plan?

    6. OptimusBlack
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I pick same 7

  19. Warby84
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    ‘Player of the match’?? Surely was man of the match PC gone mad

  20. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Never really understand why Alonso gets so much stick.

  21. Going Home
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    A) Diaz
    B) Jota

    1) TAA, digne and Tsimikas (bench)
    2) Robbo (only cramp), Cash and Sessegnon (bench)?

  22. Deulofail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Probably sticking to this FH now so I can relax 🙂

    Pickford(v)
    Cash Digne Mykolenko
    KDB Son Zaha Maddison
    Vardy Ings(c) Richarlison

    Pope | Barnes, Clyne, Tsimikas

    Not as excited as I hoped to be 😀

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Perfect

    2. OptimusBlack
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      If you can get Kane would u do it or still get Vardy ?

      1. Deulofail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        I'd prefer Vardy 🙂 Thanks!

  23. Don Van Vliet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Barkley to cost Chelsea the game (if he takes one).

    1. lilmessipran
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      You have to think he was brought on to take a pen?

      1. Don Van Vliet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Of course, but he may not potentially be needed if he's 4th or 5th taker...

        1. Don Van Vliet
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Lucky to score; awful penalty.

          1. JJO
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            Hahah that was the best penalty taken after Thiagos

            1. Don Van Vliet
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 23 days ago

              You're tripping. It was all kinds of wrong.

  24. umerlfc
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Which combo on FH?

    A) TAA + Coutinho + Vardy
    B) Digne + Diaz + Kane
    C) Digne + TAA + Kane

  25. lilmessipran
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Alonso on pens?

    1. KAPTAIN KANE’S SON
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Jorginho then Lukaku

  26. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Azpi pen miss

  27. KAPTAIN KANE’S SON
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Stay still keepers you might save it then!

  28. KAPTAIN KANE’S SON
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Dear oh dear Mane you bottler!

  29. yousunkmybattleship
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Mane sh*ts the bed

  30. jason_ni
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Any sign of salah with the players on the bench?