Pro Pundit Teams

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!


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2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    GW 37 could end up as one of the best weeks to FH this season. Could. But nothing is predictable this season…

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Why do you say that

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        FH off Salah and assess damage for 38?

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Salah injury, many hits flying etc

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      I think those who add a few differentials in who are being overlooked in the template will do well

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        There’s an opportunity now

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          I made about 30 pts gain with my both FHs, so there is no opportunity for me now 😉

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      It's strongly team dependent. (Sorry my English, is that correctly spelled?)
      KdB, Son and Kane are highly owned players and double Che defense with Alonso and R James is potentially explosive. But I agree, difficult to predict how FH template will do against other "differentials".

  2. tibollom
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    G2G? FH team rivl

    pickford
    robbo cash digne
    son diaz zaha maddison
    kane vardy ings

    chasing 25PTS on rival with no FH and has son;kdb and salah.. C vardy??

    1. HM2
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 17 days ago

      I’m not 100% convinced that Diaz starts now that Firmino is back. Could be a front 3 of:

      Mane - Firmino - Jota

      1. Thomas Magnum
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the case, then Firmino gets pulled at 60 due to fitness and Diaz or Origi off the bench

  3. NorCal Villan
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Two enter the ring, only one leaves

      (A) T Silva
      (B) Alonso

      Who gets the ax?

      1. Thomas Magnum
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Either could get a rest, although Silva looked like he was struggling during that match so maybe he gets the axing

        1. NorCal Villan
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Thanks! Pretty much same take as mine. I have to lose one, not sure if there’s even much in it with respect who to keep.

      2. HM2
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Probably the biggest decision of my season so I would be grateful for some help please! I’m 30 points ahead in ML and my rival has a Kane and a FH left. What would you do out of these 3 moves?

        —————- Pickford ——————-
        —-Cancelo - Robbo - Laporte ——-
        Kullu - Saka - Salah - KDB - Ramsey
        —- Richarlison ——Nketiah———-

        Dubravka - Weggy - Rudiger- Schar

        a) Salah > Son (-4)
        b) Salah, Saka > Son, Zaha (-8)
        c) Salah, Weggy > Zaha, Kane (-8)

        1. Bruno Commando
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          B

        2. Jambot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Don’t do B worse of both worlds. When you take 4 of Zaha he’s a SHW player. I think A is the best move as your rival will probably have Son on FH. If they didn’t have free hit I’d say cover Kane

          1. HM2
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Sorry what do you mean by zaha is an SHW player?

        3. OptimusBlack
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          B

        4. Thomas Magnum
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          I’d say choose who you’d rather captain between Kane and Son (presuming you’d captain them) and go with that option and hope the leader picks the other one

          1. HM2
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Thanks. I was considering captaining Richalison to be honest

      3. Flynny
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        What's the better option on free hit please?

        A....trent and ings (Clyne 1st sub if trent benched)

        B....digne and vardy (doubly villa defence)

        Thanks

        1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 17 days ago

          A for me

        2. Moose™
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          B. Vardy vs Watford is tasty!

      4. The Frenchie
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Guys,

        I’m playing my mini title on this game. What would you do with that team?

        Schmeichel
        TAA / Robertson / Cancelo / James
        Salah / Mount / Coutinho / Kulusevski
        Kane / Watkins

        For exemple, I could do A) for -4 or B) for -8

        A)
        In: KDB / Son / Cash
        Out: Salah / Mount / Robertson

        B)
        In: KDB / Son / Richarlison (c)
        Out: Salah / Mount / TAA

        Cheers

      5. Moose™
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Pls RMTFH37:

        Pickford

        Cash Konsa Myko (Tsimi Kelly)

        Son Mane Maddison Zaha (Brownhill)

        Kane Vardy Richy

        How’s it?

        1. Moose™
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Anyone??

      6. thepancakeman123
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Would you pick any DGW player over De Bruyne this week to transfer in for Salah?

        1. HM2
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Why not get KDB and a DGW player?

          1. thepancakeman123
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Already on a -4 lol

            1. HM2
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 17 days ago

              I’d look at it in isolation. A hit for a DGW player can often pay off.

              1. thepancakeman123
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                That's fair, it's just my single week players are Trent, James, Robertson, Saka, Mount and Son. Selling any of them could come back to bite me I feel

      7. Golazo1357
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 17 days ago

        120 mins leaves a real dilemma for me with Alonso, James, and Trent. Planning to still FH in GW38. Only 1 free transfer this week.

        Guita
        James TAA Cancelo Cash
        Salah Foden Saka KDB Gordon
        Richarlison

        Foster Mateta Alonso Broja

        A) Salah to Diaz + Saka to Sonaldo + James/Alonso (which one) to Digne for a -8?
        B) Salah to Sonaldo + James/Alonso to Digne or Mykolenko (which one)
        C) Salah to Mahrez + Foden to Zaha
        D) Some other recommendation

        1. Wild Card this!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Chelsea won’t play until Thursday

          1. Golazo1357
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Oh true. Would you drop James or Alonso for Digne?

      8. Gunnerblurrg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Cancelo or Mykolenko on a FH37?

        1. liverbear
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          I've benched cancelled, starting myko

        2. liverbear
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Cancelo. Auto correct

          1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Cancelo culture.

        3. Gunnerblurrg
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          I'm tempted to play Cancelo, seems most people prefer Myko for the doubles. Not sure I trust Everton enough to double up on their defence given I have Pickford in goal

      9. luke the lokonga enthusiast
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Pick a move please

        A) Saka to buendia

        B) Salah to coutinho

        C ) Salah to kdb

        1. HM2
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          C

        2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 17 days ago

          C

        3. dabber7
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          C

        4. Big_Andy_GAWA
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Buendia is an interesting pick. Could go decently, especially if Watkins is out.

        5. Moose™
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          C

      10. EL tridente
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Mane, Diaz og Jota on Free Hit?

        1. HM2
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Mane

        2. AC Yew
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          wondering the same myself!

          1. HM2
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Diaz and Jota are more at risk of a benching now that Firmino is back imo

        3. Moose™
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Mane

      11. FCSB
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        FH setup.

        Pickford
        TAA Cash Digne Mykolenko
        Salah Son Zaha
        Kane Richarlison Ings

        Steele KDH McArthur Tsimikas

        Should I do:

        TAA Salah 433 >> Maddison KDB 343 ??

        Thanks

        1. Bojangles
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          just salah to kdb

        2. OptimusBlack
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Yes do it

      12. Slitherene
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Sterling, Vardy or Jota, Kane?

        1. Gudjohnsen
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          B

      13. TB303
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Diaz or Jota?

        1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Jota or maybe both?

        2. HM2
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Neither

      14. Fernandito
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Which 2 would you go for
        A Ings
        B Kane
        C Richarlison

        1. Moose™
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          B C

      15. phrampton534
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        FH 37

        Pickford | Steele
        Cash Digne Andersen | Tsimikas Amartey
        KdB Diaz Son Zaha | Brownhill
        Vardy Kane Richarlison

        Nothing in the bank but could swap Diaz for Maddison or Coutinho or even Trossard and Vardy/Kane could be Ings/Watkins. Not convinced Ings will get both games but unlikely Vardy will too and Diaz could be a risk after today…

      16. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        1ft, 0.7itb. Fh38.

        Rams
        Robbo Cash Taa Alonso
        Marti, Kulu Maddison Saka
        Kane Weg

        B: Salah* , Broja, Schär

        A) Rams > Pickford
        B) A + Salah > Son -4 (bench Alonso/Taa/whoever)
        C) A+B + something for -8

      17. Weak Become Heros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Did Laporte train today?

        1. Giggs Boson
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          They didn't give much away in the photos https://www.mancity.com/news/mens/west-ham-training-gallery-63788127

          Looks like we'll be in the dark. I think I'll keep. I'd have to take a hit...

      18. The White Pele
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        will Robbo start?

        1. Finding Timo
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Why wouldn’t he start ? Do you think Tsimi may play instead

          1. Louis99
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Looked like robbo had a knock when he came off

            1. Finding Timo
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Oh ok thanks will check out

      19. artvandelay316
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Hi all, sorry if I'm asking a stupid question but I'm out on a weekend away and couldn't check what's going on easily.
        Is Salah injured? Easy decision to move him to KDB or Son?
        Cheers.

        1. dabber7
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Easy decision to move Salah on, not an easy decision who to ...

      20. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Any hope for Mo at all?

        1. AC Yew
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          dont think he'll be risked

        2. Lord.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Not as an fpl asset. Klopp has to be thinking in terms of what’s best for the CL. I think the real question is how far he will flog other players - especially if City win tomorrow.

      21. JELLYFISH
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Ramsdale > Pickford worth doing for a hit?
        9 points behind in my ML and rival has Schmeicel. Thinking probably not.

        1. Calv1n
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Actually thinking about Ramsdale out for -4 too
            Arsenal's defense looks shaky now...

          • BobbyDoesNotLook
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            I think it will be worth it. Arsenal has not kept a cs for a while and Newcastle has been pretty good.

        2. paulfantham
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Someone tell me that doing Salah, Mount and Laporte > Son, KDB and Digne for a -8 is a bad idea

          1. dabber7
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Really don't think it is.

        3. Calv1n
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Ramsdale
            James / Cash / Robertson / Amartey
            Son / KDB / Maddison / Mount / Saka
            Richarlison
            Bench: Foster / Broja / Dennis* / Laporte*

            chasing 3 points
            0.8 ITB 1FT no chips

            GW37 Mount to Zaha
            GW38 Laprote to Cancelo

            GTG or should I take -4 for something else?

            1. Calv1n
                1 month, 17 days ago

                thinking about Saka to a DGW player or Laporte to Anderson for a -4

            2. Pep's Money Laundry
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Get Tsimikas on your FH boys.

              Your welcome

              1. AC Yew
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                got him before the match 😛

            3. Finding Timo
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Hi on FH a) TAA b) Robo or c) Diaz? Thanks

              1. Pep's Money Laundry
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                None of them will start imo, front 3 will be Origi, firmino and Jota

                1. Finding Timo
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Why wouldn’t they start ? You think after 120 today ?

            4. Big_Andy_GAWA
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Is Kulu rumoured to be out, guys?

              1. Feed tha Sheep
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Sent home from training I heard

              2. Van der Faart
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Yes. Possible illness.

              3. Il Capitano
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 17 days ago

                He's a poorly boy

            5. Nedvěd11
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              No chips left. 1 FT

              Mendy

              Cancelo, Cash, Robbo, TAA'

              Mount, KDB, Kulu, Saka

              Kane, Watkins

              Sub: Foster, Mateta, Fofana, Martinelli

              A) Saka to Zaha for free?
              B) Saka to Coutinho for free?
              C) Saka / TAA to Son and Tsimikas -4?
              D) Saka / TAA / Watkins til Son/Tsimikas/Ings -8?

              1. dabber7
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 17 days ago

                A and start Martinelli over Kulu if it looks like he's out.

            6. FCSB
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              On FH, Salah >>

              1. Hold
              2. KDB
              3. Mane