Pro Pundit Teams

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!


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2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Parsnips
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Start Ederson or Pope??

    1. CravenA
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I think Stam will score, so Pope.

    2. lugs
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Pope

    3. HM2
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      P

    4. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Go for dgwer - pope has much higher ceiling as well. Ederson will get 6/7 max

  2. smash
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    I've currently got Sterling (had him a few weeks except for last week when he banged as I used the FH typically)

    ...what would you do with him if already in team?

    Cheers

    1. Mr. O'Connell hates DG…
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Cry

      1. Duke Silver ☑
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        This is truly the only coping mechanism for a Sterling owner.

      2. smash
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Could just ship him for a DGW player but surely he'll play last GW if not this one?

    2. Arteta
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Keep Sterling. He won't be dropped just like that after recent performances.

  3. HM2
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Bottomed, which player to bench please?

    a) Weggy
    b) Nketiah
    c) Ramsey
    d) Kulusevski

    1. JBG
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      D might be out with illness

      1. HM2
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        irrelevant though, if he’s out then my first sub comes on

    2. Vjm6891
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I'd do A

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    4. Danstoke82
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Rumour that Kulu maybe out with illness

  4. Vjm6891
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    i'd do a despite the double.....

    1. Vjm6891
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      reply fail!!!

  5. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    A Kane Ings
    B Kane Rich
    C Rich Ings

    1. lugs
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      C

  6. CravenA
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    This week only: double up on Villa defence (Cash & Digne) or swap one for Mykolenko?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Cash Mykolenko for me

      1. CravenA
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Thanks . . . and that's what I'm thinking too.

  7. Assisting the assister
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Thoughts on this. Which route on FH? Thanks for help.

    A. nketiah, Diaz, Trent, James
    or
    B. tsimikas, Kane, Madd, Myko

    1. lugs
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      B, looks safer for starts even with Tsimikas there

    2. Assisting the assister
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Yep he might even play if others are tired but will really be bench anyway

  8. Kodap
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    I know I don't have loads of DGW players, but how does this FH look?

    Pickford
    Cash - Digne - Matip
    Son - KDB - Jota - Zaha
    Kane - Vardy - Richarlison

    Steele - Amartey - D Luiz - Tsim

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I like it. Only concern I would have is it’s hard to know what to expect from Liverpool - they’ve got such a quick turnaround playing Tuesday that I’m not sure I’d trust them on a FH

      1. Kodap
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Hmm, true.. who would you prefer instead?

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Coutinho over jota and mykolenko over matip maybe

  9. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    On FH

    A) Castagne Coutinho
    Or
    B) Digne Maddison

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      That’s tough as not sure who’ll play for Leicester. Probably B edges it

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Cheers Pat

    2. Pabster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Similar to my dilemma. Would go B, just because Chelsea would put me off Cast.

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Have a feeling Coutinho could do very well though and Castagne is a nice differential I don’t see a lot in FH drafts atm.

        1. Pabster
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          It’s a good point, haven’t given him much thought. Probably should.

    3. CravenA
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Probably B is most sensible but I do like the Castagne pick.

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Yeah like him as well

    4. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Tough, but B. Digne over Lei def.

  10. ididnt
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Salah > kdb or Son?

    Have Kane and would be for a -8

    1. Vjm6891
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      But it's only -4 more? I would. I'm guessing Salah is out this week, and maybe even the following week. A lot of money to keep someone who won't play.

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      How’s it a -8. You’ll need to talk me through this one

    3. ididnt
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I’ve already taken a -4 so would be a further -4. If so. Who to go for?

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        What is past, is past. It doesn't matter any longer. No difference whether you have taken hits gw 7 or gw 27. Look at the future. I would get Son, he is chasing the golden boot.

      2. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        It’s a -4 then

  11. Muscout
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    FH37 how’s it look?

    Pickford
    Cash Digne Myk
    KDB Son Mane Gallagher
    Vardy Ings Rich

    Steele Brownhill Kelly Tsimikas

    Can downgrade Mane to Diaz/Jota to upgrade Galla to Zaha maybe

  12. Gazump
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Ings or vardy for -4?

    1. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      U mean Vardy is for a hit? Then Ings

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Ings

    3. Gazump
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Sorry both would be a hit. Already done a FT

  13. lilmessipran
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Start one

    A Laporte
    B Davies
    C Rudiger

  14. Pabster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Maddison or Coutinho on FH?

    1. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Coutinho imo

      1. Pabster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Cheers

    2. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Coutinho

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Coutinho if you have a Villa slot spare

      1. Pabster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I do, cheers..

    4. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Maddison imo

      Watford injured and Chelsea 120 minutes

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        This

      2. Pabster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Watford is very attractive but Chelsea will have plenty of rest. Will Maddison start both?

    5. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Damn, I really hope you ignored those of us who said Coutinho! Wasn’t even a 50/50 decision for me… which makes it easier to get over but also makes me wonder what I was thinking!

  15. ChelseaGuy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    A) Ings
    B) Richarlison

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Ings for 37 alone, maybe Richarlison if you need to play in 38 as well

      1. ChelseaGuy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Yea on FH, forgot to mention

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Ings looks great for 37. On FH I’d have both tho!

          1. ChelseaGuy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            But really want Vardy as well this GW, seems like he could haul. Other player is Kane

            1. Pat Bonner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Can’t really argue with that frontline to be fair! Good luck

              1. ChelseaGuy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 22 days ago

                Cheers, you too.

  16. Hunting for points
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Laporte to Cash and one of Coutinho, KDB, Son, Mount or Gordon to Zaha for -4? Worth it?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Don’t think you should sell any of the mids, especially not for a hit

      1. Hunting for points
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Okay. With Laporte back in training, still do Laporte to Cash on ft?

  17. Danstoke82
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Do I play safe and protect my 30 point ML lead and have a LIV defender in my FH or shift for a DGWer? Options are;

    A) Trent/Robbo/Matip
    B) Digne (own Cash and Mykolenko)

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      B

    2. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      B

      1. Danstoke82
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Thanks both!

  18. POTATO
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Vardy or Kane?

    Will have Son and Maddison too.

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Is this on FH? If not I’d get Kane so you have him for 38

    2. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Kane

    3. POTATO
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Sorry on FH

  19. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    How does this look for FH?

    Pickford
    Cash - Digne - Robbo
    Son - Mahrez - Maddison - Jota
    Kane - Ings - Rich

    Gordon 1st sub

    1. HM2
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Mahrez seems way too risky

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Yeah he's my main punt. But he hasnt started since the Madrid game, and Pep likes to play him against deep sitting teams. Also on pens when he's on

    2. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Really nice team there

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Thanks! Main things I'm unsure of is no Zaha, and Robbo instead of Mykolenko's double.

        But if Robbo starts I fancy he could get an attacking return, and seems pointless to get Zaha when I'm on Pickford and double Villa defence

        1. ChelseaGuy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I'd actually have Zaha over Maddison

          1. Scholes Out For Summer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Really? Just dont fancy having a player that I'd be rooting to not score in my team. Like I dont want him to score against either Everton or Villa, who are supposed to be pretty decent defensively against bottom half teams at home, while Palace struggles away.

            Like all the points pointing towards going Villa and Everton defence is suggesting to not go for Zaha?

            1. ChelseaGuy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Well, I understand your thought process but I think that Zaha outscores Maddy this week, hence me going for him

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Who plays if robbo is out? Liverpool is a lottery for this week

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Tsimikas is second bench. Not sure if Robbo is even injured though, he looked fine when he was coming off.

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Klopp saying there’ll be changes I’m really thinking we might get a league cup type team from pool. If I was on FH I’d avoid

          1. Scholes Out For Summer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Fair enough, I just feel like why would Klopp fully rotate when this is the game to make up goal difference against City?

            Like it's unlikely City loses to either West Ham or Villa, but not surprising either if they slip up in one of those games

            1. Pat Bonner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Problem is if Man City beat West Ham then it’s basically done and he then could rotate. Just my opinion tho!

  20. bitm2007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    A) Zaha and Robbo (with Tsimikas on bench)
    B) KDB and Matip

    1. ChelseaGuy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    2. frenchfries
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      FH - A
      Not FH - B

  21. No Need
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Play Davies or Rudiger my only question

  22. smash
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Did Robinson get injured? only switched on for the shootout and saw him on the sideline watching

    Cheers

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Got cramp

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Is this confirmed? He ran off when he was subbed so clearly not that bad?

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Not been confirmed but he wasn’t running freely when he went off so the sub was def due to injury/cramp

  23. Calv1n
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Start:
      1. Laporte
      2. Amartey

      Captain:
      A. Son
      B. KDB
      C. Richarlison

      1. frenchfries
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        1
        C

      2. ChelseaGuy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        1
        C

    • frenchfries
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Ramsdale
      TAA Cancelo Holgate
      Salah* Coutinho Kulusevski Saka Gordon
      Kane Richarlison

      Foster Rudiger Amartey Pukki

      A) Salah -> KDB
      B) Salah -> Zaha (Coutinho -> KDB next week)

      1. ChelseaGuy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Salah to Son maybe
        Of the two, I'd go for B

        1. Calv1n
            1 month, 22 days ago

            This

        2. frenchfries
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Already on double Spurs attack and no city, so i think i have to prioritise KDB over Son

      2. _Ninja_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Anything you would change on this FH? 0.4m itb

        Pickford (Foster)
        Cancelo Cash Mykolenko (Andersen Tsimi)
        KDB Son Zaha Coutinho (KDH)
        Kane Richarlison Ings

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I think if I was on FH this would be my team!

          1. _Ninja_
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            cheers mate

      3. BantasyFootball
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Chance TAA is rested vs Soton? Considering a BB...

        1. putana
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          i have same question. Need to sell one of robbo or trent

      4. Pointless
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Suddenly my GW38 team looks a mess! Salah, Werner, Havertz, TAA, Laporte. Possibly none start! Tight at the top of my mini league. Disaster!

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Take a few hits!

      5. The Mighty Whites
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Diaz, Jota, or Maddison?

        1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Jota.

      6. Pointless
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        On FH GW37.

        1. jason_ni
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Yes I am

      7. jason_ni
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        On fh
        433 with TAA
        OR
        34w with Diaz

        No other pool.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Diaz over TAA now imo. VvD out is problem for both directions for TAA now.