Pro Pundit Teams

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!


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2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Hoping to chase down as much OR as possible! Currently on 200k. What’re your thoughts on this?

    Pickford
    Robertson, Cash, Mykolenko
    Son, Trossard, Zaha, KDB, Jota
    Kane, Ings (C)

    (Steele, Tsimikas, Veltman, Richardson)

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      What is that?

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Your WC team?

        1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Haha “what is that?!” What the hell do you call that?!

          Sorry, yer, FH37.

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            "What’re your thoughts on this?" 😉

            Trossard in it made me wonder if it is your "bus team" or FH team... So I really needed to ask. I have 6 same players and my current "normal" team is:

            Pickford / Dubravka
            Cash, Cancelo, James, Alonso, TAA
            Son, KdB, Zaha, Maddison, Coutinho
            Kane, Gelhardt, Greenwood

            If we play this gw imaginary H2H, how many pts you expect to win(?) against my team. You are given +4 pts though 🙂

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I would start Tsimikas over Robbo

  2. Art Vandelay
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Cash or Myko for Dias?

    1. CravenA
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Cash for me.

    2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Neither!

      1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I misunderstood! Cash!

    3. Art Vandelay
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Cheers.

  3. Flynny
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Hi....Good to go with this free hit? Undecided on captain

    Pickford
    Taa myko cash (clyne tsimi)
    Kdb son coutinho zaha (brownhill)
    Kane richarlison ings

    Thanks

    1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Yer looks good!

      I think the consensus is Son if holding/blocking; Ings is chasing.

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Looks great

      1. Flynny
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Cheers.....capt will either be ings or richi

        Like the idea of ings....worried he gets injured in that first game tho!!

  4. putana
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    who would you sell between robbo and trent?

    1. Calv1n
        1 month, 22 days ago

        TAA for the money

      • Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I think robbo as more likely to not play 37 imo

      • Calv1n
          1 month, 22 days ago

          “Robbo (Andy Robertson) had a cramp and that’s completely fine, I’m surprised not more had it given what we had to do tonight.”

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Needs a rest still, CL final is the most important thing, Tsimikas can cover in PL now.

      • POTATO
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        On FH. Vardy or Ings?

        1. POTATO
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Or get both and drop Richarlison?

        2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Ings

        3. JabbaWookiee
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I’m currently on Vardy, Kane and Richarlison on mine. Do like Ings though

          1. POTATO
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Yes those are the four to choose from it seems.

        4. Finding Timo
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Ings

      • Covid Chameleon
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        RMT latest free hit draft. Changes? Risks?

        Pickford
        Cash Digne Mykolenko Holgate
        KDB Son Louis-Diaz
        Kane Vardy Ings

        Zaha Brownhill Vletman

        1. Danstoke82
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Surely you’ve got to start Zaha over one of those Everton defenders? Triple Everton defence is risky

        2. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Zaha over holgate Shirley

          1. FC Hakkebøf
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            +1

      • Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Any Liverpool on FH? Much rotation probably

        1. Danstoke82
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I’ve currently got TAA and Diaz. Although I’m thinking of benching TAA. Can’t fit him into my team at the expense of the DGWers and KDB, Son, Kane & Diaz.

      • The Frenchie
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Salah / Mount / TAA out for?

        A) KDB / Richarlison / Mykolenko (-4)
        B) Son / Richarlison / Mykolenko (-4)
        C) KDB / Son / Richarlison (-8)

      • Malkmus
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Evening all. 1ft, 0.1 itb. If I do Salah to son and Dennis to Ings for -4 it will give me

        Ramsdale (foster)
        Trent - Cancelo - Robbo - James
        Son - kdb - saka - kulu
        Ings - Richa (c)

        Subs - Martinelli, Davies, Gelhardt

        Any thoughts? -8 seems too much

        Ta

        1. FC Hakkebøf
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Trent/Robbo might be in for a rest due to the FA cup imo. Worth to note

          1. Malkmus
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Thanks yeah thinking the same. Play Davies ahead of one ?

      • FC Hakkebøf
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        A) Richarlison and Zaha (have to play one of them next week)
        B) Richarlison and Son
        C) Richarlison and Mane
        D) Kane and Zaha

        Leaning towards A or B. Then Zaha or Richarlison to Son or Kane next.

      • T88MYE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I’m chasing in a cash league with a FH.. name your differential!

        1. FeverPitch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Vardy, Foden, Diaz, Sessegnon

          1. T88MYE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Talk me into Foden & Diaz..

            Have Vardy!

            1. FeverPitch
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Foden is there or there abouts with KDB in most stats recently for much less. From what I saw the other day he could have got a huge haul. Diaz is attacking a dreadful Southampton defence who have conceded twice the amount of chances on his wing than on the other side. He obviously might not start though after tonight!

              1. T88MYE
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 22 days ago

                Yeah it’s the Diaz shout over a maddy or Couthino though.

                Foden.. or maybe Marhez are in. Opposition has KDB

        2. FC Hakkebøf
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          If your opponent has no FH, then FH is differential enough imo. Go for popular players.

          1. T88MYE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Template seems like small gains! 2 GWs left 50pts needed!

      • BantasyFootball
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Made some bad decisions early transfer decision this week, and my team is:

        Ramsdale
        TAA Cancelo Matip Dier Holgate
        Saka Ramsey D. Luiz Son
        Kane

        Subs: Dubravka Pukki Broja Salah*

        After taking -8 in hits! Still have my BB chip left and don't think GW38 is the right time to use (not sure what teams are going to be out and fixtures from some players get hard). Got to get rid of Salah for KDB or Zaha I guess. Also not sure if TAA plays after 120 mins today. What a mess!

      • Pino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Watch Salah scoring a hat-trick against Southampton

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Very difficult, since he has groin injury and that may not happen before next season.

        2. NorCal Villan
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Who will get his share of the 9 goals?

        3. Pedersen
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I got Salah and Dennis i need to find replacement for. Any suggestions?
          I can afford this
          Salah + Dennis -> Kane + 6.9m (Zaha/Madison)

          1. POTATO
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Looks sound

          2. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Y with Zaha

          3. Finding Timo
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Zaha

          4. Pedersen
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Thanks. Did it with Zaha

        4. Arteta
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Salah, Mount, Eriksen, Werner ➡ De Bruyne, Jota/Diaz, Zaha, Richarlison for - 12. Do you think this too much?
          I honestly think all of them could get 10+ this week.

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            DGW:s are the time to attack. Not certain about selling Mount and Eriksen, but if you are chasing something, you have go for it!

        5. Covid Chameleon
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          What's the safest or best Everton CB pick?

        6. Iceball
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Son Kane and KBD SGW players on FH, anyone else worth it?

          1. T88MYE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Good ole KBD!

          2. POTATO
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            I'll probably have Trossard first sub.

          3. Finding Timo
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            1 Liverpool too

        7. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          just a guess but u d think leicester main assets more likely to be rotated v chelsea in view of last home v southampton?

        8. T88MYE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Thoughts..

          Pickford
          Myk Cash Digne
          Son Foden Zaha Diaz
          Kane Vardy Rich

          Leaves 2.5 ITB.. a few differentials, No Villa Attack

        9. Danstoke82
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Surely Salah doesn’t make the Saints match right?

          I’m worried he might feature given his comment that he’s ok (unless he’s talking about the CL final). Even with a cameo he could haul big against our defence

          1. POTATO
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            If City beat West Ham then barring an 8-0 defeat of Southampton, Liverpool can't win the league, so I expect rotation. So it all depends on Sunday's result.

            1. POTATO
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              * I should state it's not impossible for Liverpool to win the league if City win - just unlikely given the current goal difference.

        10. Malkmus
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          What priority would you play the following

          A - Trent
          B - Robbo
          C - James
          D - Martinelli

          Ta

          1. T88MYE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            B C A D

            1. Malkmus
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Thanks!

        11. The Frenchie
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Hi guys, I will really appreciate your help, A, B or C?

          A) Who to bench?
          Schmeichel
          TAA / Robertson / Cancelo / James
          Son / Kulusevski / Coutinho / Mount
          Kane / Richarlison (c) / Watkins

          B) (-8)
          Schmeichel
          Robertson / Cancelo / James
          Son / KDB / Kulusevski / Coutinho
          Kane / Richarlison / Watkins

          C) (12) who to bench?
          Schmeichel
          Digne / Mykolenko / Cancelo / James
          Son / KDB / Kulusevski / Coutinho
          Kane / Richarlison / Watkins

          Cheers

        12. Finding Timo
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Trent over Robo right call? Thanks

        13. Kane Lane
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Whats the news on Salah, Havertz , Robbie?

          Should we be shipping?

        14. tomasjj
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          A) Kane Maddison
          B) Vardy Coutinho

        15. Morthau
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Start cancelo or mykolenko ?

        16. JohannaAdams10
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Who scores more this week:

          A) Saka
          B) Maddison (minus 4)

        17. Lord Flashheart
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          bring one:

          A jota
          B diaz
          C maddison
          D barnes

        18. jacob1989
            1 month, 21 days ago

            Complete free hit failure.
            Put useless zaha kdb and son over maddison or barnes.
            Went ings over watkins, went double aston villa defense.

            Only vardy returned.

            1. Wolfman180
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 21 days ago

              Be thankful you got Vardy return