Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 38

Gameweek 38 offers Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brentford, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

YOANE WISSA

  • FPL ownership: 0.1%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW38 fixture: LEE

Despite a stop-start debut season at Brentford, Yoane Wissa (£5.7m) has been one of his team’s top performers of late.

The Congolese winger joined from French side Lorient for £8.5m in August but has taken time to adjust to Thomas Frank’s approach.

Earlier in the season, he came off the bench to score in successive matches against Liverpool and West Ham United, but was then dropped after his manager said he needed to “work harder off the ball”.

However, Wissa’s performances have picked up in his two most recent outings and there are clear signs that he is finally starting to settle. Against Southampton in Gameweek 36, his strike from outside of the box was impressive, before he then created one goal and scored another at Goodison Park last weekend.  

In spite of that mixed start, Wissa is Brentford’s second-top scorer in the league this season behind Ivan Toney (£6.8m). He has seven goals, which is a very decent return considering he has only started 11 of the 37 matches. As a result, his 0.49 goals per 90 minutes ranks tenth among all Premier League players, highlighting his potential when afforded pitch time. Bryan Mbeumo (£5.2m), meanwhile, who has partnered Toney up front for much of the season, has started 33, yet has only found the net on four occasions.

An excellent 10-game run has seen Brentford leap up to 11th in the Premier League table, with a potential top-half finish on offer if they can beat Leeds United at home on the final day. Only Watford have kept fewer clean sheets than the Whites this season and while Jesse Marsch did oversee an initial defensive improvement, the fixtures have stiffened over the last four Gameweeks and the goal concessions have been flying in again.

Wissa’s place in the starting XI isn’t completely assured, especially when Frank uses a 3-5-2 formation. However, recent performances have been very good in a 4-3-3, which suggests he will be handed another opportunity to impress from the left in Gameweek 38.

EMERSON ROYAL

Emerson Royal offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 2.3%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW38 fixture: nor

Following the inclusion of Ryan Sessegnon (£4.3m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Emerson Royal (£4.6m).

Owned by just 2.3% of FPL managers, the wing-back has recently been handed a run of starts and stepped up in the absence of Matt Doherty (£4.5m) following his season-ending injury.

From Gameweek 31 onwards, Emerson has returned a goal, four clean sheets and two bonus across his eight appearances, producing 38 FPL points. Amongst all defenders, only Joel Matip (£5.2m), Marcos Alonso (£5.7m) and Marc Cucurella (£4.9m) have managed more, while he also ranks sixth for expected goal involvement (xGI) in that time.

The question for many is, which of Antonio Conte’s wing-backs is the better pick for Gameweek 38? In truth, they are both excellent options, but when comparing Emerson and Sessegnon’s underlying numbers since Gameweek 34, the latter has been the more creative of the pair, laying on a whopping five big chances for his team-mates. However, Royal edges the goal threat metrics, leading on goal attempts (6/3) shots in the box (5/3), efforts on target and big chances (both 2/0).

At this stage, we should point out that this is a very small sample size we are working with, but the above data is encouraging ahead of Sunday’s trip to Carrow Road. It’s also worth noting that Norwich City’s left side has been susceptible to conceding chances all season, with Dimitris Giannoulis (£4.4m) run ragged by Chiquinho (£5.5m) at Molineux last time out.

Royal has impressed for Spurs of late and now showing increased consistency, could be an effective differential for the final day.

CALLUM WILSON

Newcastle and Man City differentials to consider for Gameweek 9
  • FPL ownership: 1.2%
  • Price: £7.1m
  • GW38 fixture: bur

Callum Wilson (£7.1m) turned in a man-of-the-match display on his return to action in Gameweek 37 after four months out.

The former Bournemouth man played just under 90 minutes and could have scored twice, whilst also playing a crucial role in both of his side’s goals.

Offering a different dynamic to that of Chris Wood (£6.3m), Wilson bullied the Gunners’ defence and ran the channels brilliantly, ending the match with team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box and penalty box touches.

“Immense performance when you consider how long he’s been out and the type of injury it was. To deliver that on his first game back, I can’t say enough positive words about that performance. You see behind the scenes how he’s conducted himself and how hard he’s worked and it doesn’t surprise me because I’ve seen it times before in previous years but you have to back it with the performance.” – Eddie Howe on Callum Wilson

Wilson has missed a large chunk of the 2021/22 season but despite his lengthy absence, is still Newcastle’s top scorer this season with six goals. It’s also worth noting that he has found the net at a rate of a goal almost every other game since moving to Tyneside, with an impressive 18 in 38 starts.

Now, he will be hoping to add to that tally and end his season on a high when Eddie Howe’s side travel to Burnley on Sunday. The Clarets are fighting for their lives near the bottom of the table, but have allowed 11 goals in their last six home matches, whilst also conceding the fourth-most chances from the centre of the pitch under Mike Jackson, an area Wilson thrives in.

And Newcastle are in very good form, too. In fact, only Liverpool, Manchester City and Spurs have taken more points since the turn of the year.

Wilson is a real difference-maker for Newcastle, and could be a decent mid-price punt for those willing to take a gamble in Gameweek 38.

Who are the best FPL captain options for Gameweek 32?


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756 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Valdez
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 28 mins ago

    Chances of a Lukaku start % wise?

    1. Mozumbus
        3 months, 16 mins ago

        70+

    2. McGlynn8
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 27 mins ago

      Is this worth a -4?

      In Kane & Maddison

      Out Salah & Broja

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 25 mins ago

        I am doing something similar, I am coming around to thinking it is worth it.

      2. The Mantis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 13 mins ago

        Similar to what I'm (likely) to do. Salah & Pukki to Kane & Mads -4
        just haven't pulled the trigger yet, may wait until tomorrow

    3. Bavarian
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 mins ago

      G2G? Right benching order?

      Schmeichel
      TAA-Cancelo-Laporte-Alonso
      Salah-Son(C)-Saka-Mount
      Jesus-Nketiah

      Foster-Matip-Pukki-Gordon

    4. merin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 25 mins ago

      Anything worth a hit?

      Schmeichel
      TAA Robbo Cancelo James Laporte
      Son(c) Foden Mount Zaha
      Richarlison

      (Foster Gordon Pukki Watkins)

      2.5 ITB, 0 FT

    5. Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 24 mins ago

      Who do we think will play in City's defense?

      1. nolard
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 19 mins ago

        Cancelo, Laporte, perhaps Zinchenko.

        But with Stones and Walker back in training, I reckon Cancelo is 100%, Laporte has a knock, but should also start 85%.

        1. nolard
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 19 mins ago

          *only Cancelo

        2. Dark Side Of The Loon!
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 16 mins ago

          Ok. Moving Coutinho out for Diaz. Wondering if I should take a hit and move White out for Zinchenko. Or just play White.

          1. nolard
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 15 mins ago

            I don't think that is worth it.

    6. OptimusBlack
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 19 mins ago

      Who to win ?
      7 v.s 7
      A- Sessegon Kulu Son KDB Richa Vardy Nketiah

      B- Diaz Son Mount Saka Maddison Kane Toney

      1. Bavarian
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 15 mins ago

        B

      2. WHUFCSmith23
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Seems fairly even to me, would lean towards A for me.

    7. Stranger Mings
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 18 mins ago

      Is chabolah to Alonso worth it? Surely risk Alonso benched though ?

      1. notlob legin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 15 mins ago

        No - both might not start

    8. wolves_simmo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 months, 17 mins ago

      Who gets the highest points in 38?

      A) Cancelo - AVL
      B) Alonso - WAT
      C) Saka - EVE
      D) Bowen - bha
      E) Nketiah - EVE

      1. Boly Would
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 15 mins ago

        A

      2. Bavarian
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 15 mins ago

        E

    9. notlob legin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 16 mins ago

      Would you do:-

      Salah to Mane
      Cash to TAA
      Firmino to Toney

      For a -8

      Gives me
      Pope
      TAA, Alonso, Sessignon, White
      Mane, Son (TC), Mount, Saka
      Kane, Tony

      Bench - Weghorst, Ramsey and Burn

    10. Ronny Sandstone
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 16 mins ago

      Is it worth doing Sterling to Mount (allows me to upgrade Coady to James)

      Mount/James seem 2 of the most desirable players this week, looks good on paper right?

    11. Malinwa
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 16 mins ago

      Anything worth a hit?

      Ederson
      TAA - Robertson - Thiago Silva - Alonso - Cancelo
      Saka -Son - Kulu - Havertz
      Watkins

      Foster - Pukki - Gordon - Dennis*

      1. DARWIN'S DINOSAURS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 3 mins ago

        My guess is rotation will hit heavy and the players are at risk through injury too are:
        Silva, Alonso, Saka, Havertz, Gordon, Dennis.

    12. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 15 mins ago

      Watkins to Toney

      1. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 15 mins ago

        This was a reply fail for Malinwa above 😀

        1. Malinwa
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          Cheers

    13. COLLIN QUANER
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 13 mins ago

      Can't decide on Kane or KDB for the final week. Already have Son who I will captain. Hmm

    14. DavvaMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 13 mins ago

      Mahrez to...

      A. Foden
      B. Maddison
      C. Bowen
      D. Wissa

      Thanks

    15. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 12 mins ago

      Last week punt, Alonso or Toney?

      1. Flynny
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 9 mins ago

        Toney

      2. nolard
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 5 mins ago

        Alonso

      3. Stranger Mings
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 4 mins ago

        I think risk Alonso benched

      4. Red Red Robins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Ive gone Toney as my last week punt

    16. DF Team
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 11 mins ago

      How mad is this?
      Raya
      Amartey, Sessegnon, Tsimikas
      KDB, Mane, Son, Norgaard
      Lukaku, Kane, Toney

      Steele, Long, Kelly, Delph

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 4 mins ago

        Slightly on the bonkers side of deranged.

      2. The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        3 months ago

        Basically an 8 man team - ruined the balance for a premium forward whose starting place looks pretty doubtful to me. But I think its easily fixed by doing Lukaku - Mount (352) & upgrading Norgaard, Amartey, Tsimikas

      3. Red Red Robins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Ive gone Norgaard in my fanteam as a cheap punt

      4. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 12 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Kdb to mount
        Norgaard to barnes/Maddison
        Tsimikas to Alonso

    17. nolard
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 10 mins ago

      Who scores most:

      a) Mane and Rich
      b) Kane and Maddison -4

      1. Mozumbus
          3 months, 9 mins ago

          A

        • Gazza2000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 9 mins ago

          B

        • Visionaries
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 4 mins ago

          B

        • ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 4 mins ago

          A

        • nolard
          • 7 Years
          3 months ago

          I like ABBA too. Great fun tunes.

      2. Mozumbus
          3 months, 9 mins ago

          A. Rudiger
          B. Cancelo

          1. Gazza2000
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            3 months, 9 mins ago

            B

            1. Mozumbus
                3 months, 5 mins ago

                Thane

              • Mozumbus
                  3 months, 5 mins ago

                  *thanks

              • nolard
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 6 mins ago

                b

                1. Mozumbus
                    3 months, 5 mins ago

                    Thanks

              • Old Gregg
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                3 months, 6 mins ago

                Who scores more points

                A) Mount (-4)
                B) Diaz (-4)
                or
                C) Mateta

                1. Gazza2000
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 months, 5 mins ago

                  A

                2. OptimusBlack
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 3 mins ago

                  A

              • The Mighty Whites
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 6 mins ago

                1FT, 0.2 ITB:

                Ederson - Schmeichel
                TAA - Robertson - Cancelo - Laporte - Alonso
                Salah - Mount - Maddison - Saka - Gordon
                Watkins - Pukki - Dennis

                Salah + one of my strikers to Son + another striker?

                1. Gazza2000
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 months, 3 mins ago

                  Toney is the obvious pick I think but not sure you want him to score, do you?

                  1. The Mighty Whites
                    • 7 Years
                    3 months, 3 mins ago

                    Not really hahah, think I'm pretty safe to win my mini-league so might just go Gelhardt

                2. Jordan.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  3 months ago

                  salah to raphinha
                  dennis to kane
                  -4 bench gordon
                  i have the same front8

              • Mozumbus
                  3 months, 4 mins ago

                  A. Cancelo + Mbeumo
                  B. Rudiger + Eriksen

                • Visionaries
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 3 mins ago

                  Currently lead my mini league by only 6 points.

                  A Cash & Holgate > James & Cancelo -4
                  B Cash & Weghorst > Kane & 4.1 Def -4
                  C Cash, Holgate, Saka > James, Cancelo & Bowen/Maddison -8

                  Cash, Robbo, Holgate, White, Dalot
                  Son, KDB, Saka, Diaz
                  Rich, Weghorst

                  1. bitm2007
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    3 months, 1 min ago

                    A

                • Kno
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 2 mins ago

                  Salah -> kevin or mane?

                  1. Mozumbus
                      3 months, 2 mins ago

                      KDB

                    • DavvaMC
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 1 Year
                      3 months, 2 mins ago

                      Probably Mane.

                  2. Mozumbus
                      3 months, 2 mins ago

                      Will will score more:
                      A. Cancelo + Amartey
                      B. Rudiger + Bruno Guimarães
                      Thanks

                      1. bitm2007
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 8 Years
                        3 months, 1 min ago

                        B

                    • Buck The Trent
                      • 10 Years
                      3 months, 1 min ago

                      OR 10.9K, best option to sneak into 10K?

                      Kasper
                      TAA Robbo Cancelo Laporte Alonso
                      Salah KdB Mount Kulu (KDH)
                      Nketiah (Richa Pukki)

                      A) Salah to Son (c)
                      B) A + Kulu to Maddy (-4)
                      C) A + KdH to Maddy (-4), bench Laporte

                      1. nolard
                        • 7 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        To climb?
                        Bank on that Son doesn't haul and get Leicester?

                        1. Buck The Trent
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          3 pts off 10K, my idea was to match Son EO (likely highly captained) and hoping the differentials make up the gap?

                      2. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                        • 12 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Pukki party

                    • Atimis
                      • 5 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      Leading by ~40 points, probably doing Salah to Son (c), would you say I should win the ML?

                      Ederson
                      TAA/Robo/Cancelo/Alonso
                      Salah/KDB/Mount/Saka/Kulu
                      Pukki

                      1. WHUFCSmith23
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 1 Year
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Depends how many players you have the same as your rivals. If half the team is the same then I would say yes as even if they are going for a differential captain they will need that captain to go Nuclear

                    • FPL_ UP_Down
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      What would you do here??
                      Schmeichel
                      James TAA Cancelo Alonso
                      Salah Foden Saka Maddison
                      Kane (c) Jesus

                      Foster: Gordon Tskimikas Gelhartd
                      A: Salah to Son
                      B: Salah Jesus to Vardy Son
                      C: Salah Jesus to Lukaku Diaz
                      D: anyone else ??

                    • EL tridente
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      Richarlison, Salah and Doherty to Kane, Diaz and Sessegnon for a hit?

                    • RamaJama
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      Play Pukki or Richa?

                      1. tokara
                        • 8 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Rich for me

                    • Reinhold
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 11 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      I'm 32 points behind ML leader, so will have to sell Pukki (whom he has) to someone.

                      Nketiah still the best option with nothing in the bank? Not in love with that tbh

                      1. Holmes
                        • 8 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Maybe you can upgrade one of your defender/midfielder instead?

                        1. Reinhold
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 11 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Not really. Nothing in the bank, and only mid to upgrade is Gordon (else I would have to play another player).

                          Could sell Saka for someone, but then I will play Pukki and have one less differential

                          I do believe Pukki will do well though

                          1. Holmes
                            • 8 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            stick with Pukii