After assessing the Defenders and Midfielders over the first four Gameweeks, our latest members articles focuses on the forwards. We turn our attentions to Bournemouth, Stoke and Swansea’s in-form frontmen, whilst we also analyse Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool’s strikers after disappointing starts to the season.
- Saving the AOA Chip Until Last
I think its likely I'll play my AOA chip in GW38. Not many clean sheets in the final week.
This is a good shout
I am liking this idea. Very much.
That's a good shout. I was wondering when on earth I would use it.
Especially as Wally will probably be at 4.5 by then...
😆 lets hope so!
I was thinking 3.8
So Walcott has dropped 5 times in 30 days at an average of once every 6 days. Now there are 249 days until week 38 so assuming a linear drop in price of 0.1m every 6 days, Walcott will drop a further 41 times before the end of the season. Therefore Walcott will actually be £4.4m come week 38. Result. #Crapmaths
i dont think there will be much owner count left to take him to 4.4m
Wanyama > Walcott straight swap! Thnx!
Good idea, though last year there were still 7 clean sheets
The other reason of course is we can probably afford a really strong front 8. Also clean sheets will probably be quite unpredictable given the nature of GW38
That is true
Let's hope so, coz I don't like the look of Wilson(manu) and Mahrez(chel) in GW 38.
Planning to use it to cover injuries/poor fixtues myself
Covering injuries yes. Not sure you should find yourself in a situation with poor fixtures.
It's inevitable one of your front 8 won't play
I'm planning the WC, Bench boost, AOA last 3 week trifecta
Means you can get 8 quality attackers and play them in 3 games over the last 2 weeks. Benching dilemma week 36 of course+1 one of Chelsea vs Tottenham, Swansea vs Liverpool and Southampton vs Man City should help with the decision making in gw36 too
Also I like to pace myself and then come home strong. Advice I was sadly too late to pass on to YMA.
The only problem with this is line-up predictability at that stage of the season.
The best time to use the AOA is probably straight after a WC - so you can frame your first XI around the fixtures and have a plan to get back into shape in the following gameweek(s).
I think the AOA chip hasn't had much discussion on here (may have missed any discussions though) as bench boost/triple captain seem obvious ones to use in a DGW, AOA probably worth an article but haven't got around to it yet....It's the least valuable chip as attackers only really average a pt or 2 above defenders if that. I'd sell mine for 4 pts, my triple captain for 7 pts and my bench boost for 15-20 pts
Actually more like 12 pts triple captain forgot about dgw
Could be a viable tactic to just not bother using it then.
Think there is definitely an article on this topic just waiting to be written....
"The only problem with this is line-up predictability at that stage of the season."
Very good point.Depends who you pick
Quite a few examples of teams with nothing to play for showing off some of the kids tho, particularly if they happen to be at home.
Makes sense if patient and going for broke. I'll use it when I've injuries to defenders.
So will I, but if that never happens then I'll still have it in GW38 and can use it then
I don't think it is really worth much as a chip, maybe a few points. Playing it at the wrong time could easily lose you points if defenders on your bench get clean sheets and forwards blank.
I think it makes most sense to use it to avoid having to take a hits for transfers or even just to save transfers or allow you to use them to tinker elsewhere.
I wouldn't save it for the last few weeks of the season which are notoriously unpredictable, big names are often benched for youth/squad players and other players are strolling around in flip flops.
Is not the very nature of GW38 that some of your key starting attackers will get benched (or reduced game time) to introduce some fringe/young players in a nothing game??
Never as much rotation as you think, look at the last day of last season. It's an urban myth
I think thats overstated
I actually think you're right, on reflection. But you only need one attacking player to not start and your chip is pointless.
I made this point yesterday and am also considering using it on a blank for a double. Didn't get hot topiced tho:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/09/06/monitor-eden-hazard-3/?hc_page=3#hc_comment_11175164Not sure about that.
Last season we have 7 cleansheet (Burnley, Palace, Spurs, Hull, Man Utd, Man City, Newcastle).
Plus the cleansheet ticker 'predict' tons of CS in the final day of this season.See my response to Ba Rilliant
I'll use it to avoid unnecessary transfers of my defence picks up injuries or suspensions. Basically I'll hold it as a way of being more flexible if I need to. If I don't use it by GW38 I'll probably play it then just to make the last week more fun to watch!
That or use it during a defensive injury crisis.
7 clean sheets in GW38 last season, as a couple of others have already pointed out.
There may be other reasons for saving your AOA chip till then, but the reason you give is not one of them.
I hope that the Community Roundup will include a comment to make amends for misleading our readers in this way.Repost
The other reason of course is we can probably afford a really strong front 8. Also clean sheets will probably be quite unpredictable given the nature of GW38I saw you gave these other reasons in another reply, but many of the readers of your original post appear to have based their replies on your original reason, which was not true for last season, and they may not have seen your later reply.
There may also be a lot of rotation in GW38, so how can you be certain that your front eight will all play?
And were last season's clean sheets in GW38 really less predictable than in other game-weeks anyway?
City 2 Southampton 0 - home banker.
Palace 1 Swansea 0 - home team kept clean sheet.
Newcastle 2 West Ham 0 - home team kept clean sheet.
Hull 0 United 0 - At home, Hull kept 6 clean sheets but failed to score 7 times; United failed to score in 6 away matches.
Villa 0 Burnley 1 - Villa failed to score in 8 home matches, and Burnley only conceded 2 goals in their last 4 away matches.
Everton 0 Spurs 1 - this was really the only major surprise.... However, one reason to use the chip in GW38 might be that use of the Second Wildcard and Bench Boost chips in GW36 and DGW37 might have resulted in a strong front 8 and a very weak defence (full of DGW players).
...Newcastle also desperately needed a win from their last match in order to avoid relegation.
Earlier in other hot topics about AOA chips, I posted the same strategy to use in gw38.
1. Good team values in fpl
2. Games of no expectations to league positions may lead to more open approach
3. Final golden boot contenders can be identified and backed
4. Higher chance of freak/expected results like Stoke, WBA in more recent seasons, you can take 1 extra attacking punt.Looking at my defenders' GW38 scores in previous seasons:
2010: Bale(TOT) 12, Baines(EVE) 6, Higginbotham(STK) 1
2011: Baines(EVE) 8, Hangeland(FUL) 2, Dawson(TOT) 2
2012: Kompany(MCI) 1, Vermaelen(ARS) 1, Hibbert(EVE) 0.
2013: Azpilicueta(CHE) 1, Zabaleta(MCI) 1, Martin(NOR) 1
2014: Coleman(EVE) 6, Demichelis(MCI) 5, Dann(CRY) 1.
2015: Ivanovic(CHE) 2, Huth(LEI) 2, Skrtel(LIV) -2.
So perhaps you might be right after all - only 5 decent scores from my 18 defenders in GW38!
(Is it significant that 3 of them were from Everton full backs / wing backs?)...but how many points did my benched front 8 players score in GW38?
2010: Etherington(STK) 2
2011: Meireles(LIV) 1.
2012: Valencia(MUN) 5
2013: Anichebe(EVE) 5
2014: Wickham(SUN) 2
2015: Cambiasso(LEI) 7
So on average an All Out Attack chip played in GW38 would have gained me about 2.5 points on average - but how many points might it have gained me if I had played it in an earlier game-week?The difference is we can plan a big 8 in advance thanks also to earlier DGW's and bench boost. With a strong front 8 your extra attacker will be decent and should offer you more points.
...Based on last season, and excluding game-weeks when I had less than 8 front players available or chose to play 4 defenders, the All Out Attack chip appears to be worth about 2.4 points on average whenever it is played.
Whether I would have broken even or gained up to 10 points by playing it in any particular game-week appears to be quite unpredictable.
In every case where my benched front player scored well, there was at least one of my starting front 7 who failed.
The best time to use the AOA is whenever your DEF is in trouble/injured. Instead of taking a -4 for a DEF just the AOA. Instant +4 gain when the max that this chip will ever really get us anyway is say 4 to 10 points.
Leagues will be won on the last day! FPL should show the total amount of chips and wildcards used so far. That would make planning so much easier 🙂
We can see the number of chips and wildcards used by other players in previous game-weeks by looking at their Gameweek History.
Unfortunately, we cannot see whether they have activated any of these for the current game-week until after the deadline has passed.
Have exactly 1.0 ITB and 1 FT to do Depay --> Pedro.
Yay or Nay?
Yep - that's what I did.
Done that last Saturday, only disappointment is that neither has changed in price.
Do you have any other Chelsea or United players?
On the face of it I think its a good move.Only Shaw, needed Chelsea cover.
100% a good move then. Go for it
Bad move to get pedro in just yet. Stats for Chelsea's upcoming games are poor. And Chelsea are currently not fixture proof. Go for a midfielder with better run of games upcoming.
They'll get going soon I'm sure and the fixtures aren't bad. Everton who they spanked last season and Arsenal who aren't exactly lighting it up either. Then it's fodder for them. It's not like they're not scoring just can't defend.
To play every week
Lindegaard & 0.8 in the bank
DDG* or
Wouldn't be my choice.
Who for you if playing one weekly? I don't rotate
Well, I always do.
But, under your rules, Fabianski.Cheers!
I could just go Speroni / McCarthy as originally planned
Is Lindegaard a guaranteed starter ?
You will have to consult his girlfriend!
To risky a transfer this week IMO.
I've just taken a look at goalkeeper performance so far this season. Check out the link in my profile if you want to learn more. 🙂
Coates finally drops
Anything on underneath? 😉
ready foe the Evans ride. I still remember his 8 points on GW38 whilst red flagged
🙁
Imagine Your mum's athletic and R̶u̶t̶h̶ his date lying in bed this morning reading FFS...
😯I'd rather not
*tries to block image, feels vaguely sick*
giggity
YMA probably fell asleep listening to Ruth's long ramblings on the benefits of solar power
I am totally lost on this Ruth talk.
What is it all about?YMA went on a date last night and joked it was with Ruth. This is with the background of the mass drama in the comments of YMA's community article. Also Ruth recently declared he was stopping his posting for a while a couple of days back.
😡 I wanted to create some drama
😳 Sorry!
Why not an article on "Ruth moving target"
YMA asked Ruth out on a date last night
oh. would that such blissful ignorance were my lot.
When the f#ck is Pedro's price going to rise?? His progress is on 233.9% and rising!!
Never
He won't rise till after the game week starts. As Friday is when all the casuals will transfer him in. His current rate is due to the high volume of wild cards being played.
Pedro is a bad move to make imo. Chelsea stats is poor for their upcoming games. They certainly aren't fixture proof.I think we all punt a newcomer sometime. At 9.5 with possible rise, easy to get out of. The only reason I did it was Chelsea cover.
Statement from the FPL Statisic's site
Starting to suspect that Pedro's lock has not been removed. The unlock date for Pedro was very close to the international break (when all locks are usually extended). Clearly wild cards could well be impacting Pedro's transfers. Treat Pedro's potential to rise with care!!!
Good morning team. Really struggling this year after winning my mini league 2 years running. Would like some help with this. Is it wildcard time?
Butland/ruddy
Skrtel/alderweireld/cedric/huth/Francis
Haz/ozil/depay/Ritchie/wanyama
Aguero/benteke/deeney
ThanksDeeny Depay Alders?
Other choices?
ur team is pretty horrible but u have missed the boat on early w/c. wait til week 13 now and take the occassional hit to hget ur team str8 if needed. assuming u have 1ft and 0 in the bank id downgrade depay to ayew to free funds
Yes. Midfield is a disaster area, I'm afraid.
If Lindegaard starts this week, is he the best option to rotate with Butland ?.
Who are the likely risers and fallers?
ask marlene. she keeps track of such things
Pedro
lol
Good morning Europe, a beautiful day here in SE Spainland. Anyone else have the Kompany > Kolarov dilemma? Is it too sideways to bother about?
Do it if nothing more urgent, but probably better to carryover the free transfer. You can always do it before gw 6.
I feel fortunate to make the Kolarov choice at the beginning of the season.
Ta. If I didn't have either I would defo get one of them in (and probably Kolarov) but think I'll save the FT and put my faith in Vincent.
get both.. city 4c.s and easy run of games and mid points gonna be spread 4 ways from now on
Have to ship out Kun or Silva to another so think I'll be keeping Kompany for a while, he could easily knock in a few himself.
Sticking with Kompany myself, Kolarov only nailed for a few games.
Your loss
Think Clichy is out for a month or two? Kolarov should be nailed for a while as even when Clichy is back he needs to earn the spot back.
Sagna can play LB when Zab is back.. played few games last season..
No he didn't.
Sagna won't displace Kolorov!!! 😐
Kolarov is the main man.
I will need to sort out keepers but RMt on my team this week pls:
Romero/Mccarthy
Huth Kolarov Williams (Gomez Oxford)
Pedro Mahrez Siva (v) Ayew (Chadli)
Tekkers Wilson Aguero (C)
.7 mil ITB
Thoughts?Play Chadli, bench tekkers
Yeah! Its burning my backside.
this. and ur defence needs upgrading (huth gomez oxford all weak)
I have 2FT's £0.00 in bank. But is it worth a WC?:
Option 1:
I would change this team:
McCarthy, Hennessey
Bellerin, Naughton, Oxford, Targett, Browning
Hazard, Lens, Chadli, Mutch, Mane
Rooney, Aguero, Benteke
to this:
Butland, McCarthy
Gomez, Sagna, Cresswell, Francis, S Taylor
Pedro, Sanchez, Mahrez, De Bruyne, Westwood
Aguero, Gomis, Wilson
Or option 2:
Just do: Rooney----Gomis/Wilson
Browning----Kolorov
Which is the best option2 IMO. horrible to waste 2ft's
Option 2
Wild card0week after
option 2
Ya ya to De bryne for free. Gonna lose transfer otherwise and thinking, why not...
Your team?
Front 8 of
Ya ya, Shakira, mahrez, shelvey (coutinho)
kun, Wilson, Costa
Got kol at back, nothing else matters back there
1.3 in bank, 2ftWant to keep Phil for next week and seems a waste to take him out and put him back in again
Leave YA YA and distribute Costa money. IMO
sounds good. silva if you feel less brave.
Bottomed and no reply last 2 pages ago, anyone willing to help?
Which 2 to partner Kolarov this GW?
A) Darmian
B) Gomez
C) Richards
D) Ward
My GK is Butland (McCarthy) if it helps. Cheers!A and D
D vs City at home, no problem?
With those choices. Does have an attacking threat as well.
Cheers! But City have 4 CS so far including vs Everton & Chelsea, do you think Palace is capable to score against City? I haven't watched any Palace matches so far, so I am unsure.
Any team can score against City. They have clean sheets granted but could have conceded 2 against Everton and there have been other missed chances. If there is a style of play to get one over on City its Palace.
Sounds like Palace is a very attacking team now, thanks for the feedback.
A and c
Cheers!
A and C,
Cheers!
Draft game, would you rather:
Carroll - returning from injury soon, potential rotation risk when back, likely to get injured again, could score well...
or
Berahino - unhappy, unpopular with fans, but if he can get back in the side likely to score well...
Picking from free agent pool hence the options!Berahino 😉
lol, just checked the claim order, pipe dream now...
Surely a couple of the new signings are still available? Mbokani maybe? Or one of the new Watford strikers?
Balders around?
aye aye
Think it was you who was wondering if anyone had done any baseline BPS/min analysis this season. It inspired me to do some work. Submitted it as a community article here but if you want to have a look at it now then I've posted it on my blog too: https://innsie.wordpress.com/
Awesome work! It seems some teams style of play must really favour their fullbacks.
Just a heads up I'm currently working on a google sheets to automate as I'd had no reply earlier 😀Indeed. Ha, it only took me 1-2 hours to do what I did so no biggy anyway 🙂
Cheers man, its good to have your results now for piece of mind and to have them there to check mine against when my sheet is up and running.
I know its getting a crowded marketplace but watch out for a site from yours truly, it'll hopefully be up and replacing my current link as an fpl focused thing within the next 24 hours 😀I hope my results are right then! 😉
Cool, I'll be looking out for it. The whole FPL blog business is becoming quite popular now!
Nice. The feeling was there and you have given it substance.
🙂
Good read, have never thought of something like that before.
I did the research every few months last season, the results are often quite surprising and it highlights some good under the radar picks. The figures don't mean much now since we're so early into the season, but give it a couple of months and I'll do it again and it'll give a more reliable view on things.
So based on your previous experience, how many games is the minimum sample size that will provide a more reliable information?
Hmm... maybe 10 games at the very minimum? It worked well with the January WC in previous seasons as half a season is a decent sample size so the info was helpful when preparing our WC defences.
Interesting, but there seems to be many manual work for you in order to get that data, let me try to figure out during my free time whether this is possible to automate it.
Excellent Innsie, thanks for sharing.
Francis, Amavi, Kosc and Gabriel ahead of Kolarov, I wasn't expecting this!Great piece of work Innsie! Very helpful. Thanks for sharing.
Who is going to start for West Ham's front 4 apart from Payet and Sakho?
Sagna is an injury doubt for the Crystal Palace game
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/manchester-city-suffer-sagna-injury-10009384and the plot thickens...
Bench one: Ritchie (nor) Lens (TOT) Benteke (mun)
Tekkers
Richie wiill come good 🙂
LENS
clear cut then 🙂
😀 Lens for me
Morning all. I suspect Luis Enrique has been playing FPL:
https://twitter.com/guardian_sport/status/641159155953336320
Cynical move to get ahead in a draft league 🙂
😀
Pedro or Sterling for the next couple gameweeks? need help
Sterling
Please RMT guys..having benching issues! Thanks
Mignolet (McCarthy)
Darmian Kolarov Williams (Gomez, Richards)
Mahrez (c) Yaya Sanchez Ayew Payet
Aguero Wilson (Gomis)
Does it seem reasonable Gomis>Payet?
G is bang on form
backed by this article.
Not convinced 3 Swans long term.
Play 2:
Gomez (mun)
Morgan (avl)
Richards (LEI)
Is Gomez worth a shout as Utd arent exactly firing on all cylinders.I am having similar dilemma, currently on Gomez.
avl v lei could be a decent scoring game...2-2 is likely.
I think both team will be unable to keep CS for their match.
Not that it may change your score prediction - but Leicester are the home team.
Toss a coin for a def to drop as a both teams are likely to score. I'd play Gomez Morgan
Morning everyone.
What to do with this - 2 FT and 0.2 in the bank.
Thinking of moving Pelle and banking the other FT - but for who?
Butland Ruddy
Kolarov Shaw Huth Gomez Richards
Sánchez Silva Westwood Payet Albrighton
Agüero Gomis Pellè
Wilson or Diouf? will also open the option to upgrade one of your cheap mids
Yeah - might go with Diouf and give Payet/Albrighton another week.
On wildcard who are the two most important mids and defs to have??
Kolarov
Silva/sterling/yaya/KDB and AlexisThis
Kolarov + Pulis defender and Mahrez + Manchester City mid. imo
Ayew, Pedro (at a stretch)
City & Swansea players.
bench one - naughton, dawson, darmian, kolarov
Dawson
Got to love Dunphy speaking of Ireland:
"We can beat Germany. Germany are poor. They have players who can’t get in Premier League teams: Schweinsteiger, Emre Can. We have to believe that. We have to stop talking ourselves down.”Dunphy is king of the spoofers.
He's obviously wrong to call the World Champions poor, but I feel they can be got at in defence. We need to play Tipperary's finest Shane Long to exploit the centre halves lack of pace/turning ability.
After watching them live last night theres no way Ireland can beat Germany
I expect we'll lose, feel Brady and Coleman aren't great defensively and surprisingly Whelan may be a loss. I slagged him off before the game last night but he was good. McCarthy was rubbish, don't know what wrong with him.
We must have gotten into his head in Dublin 😉
You would hope so for Scotland's sake. Anything but an Ireland win puts things back in their hands.
Exactly. If we win against Poland then only a Ireland victory over Germany can stop us getting a playoff spot
We might beat Poland anyway, bit unlikely but it would secure our 3rd spot.
If you beat Poland away and we beat Poland at Hampden we win finish above Poland and you will take the automatic qualification spot
Just put a plan in place to get Hazard back in GW7
Smart move im waiting until GW8 WC
