This month has shown a rather cruel propensity to punish risk taking in the Fantasy Premier League game. The Dream Team of top overall scorers is converging with the template of both the top 10,000 and overall rankings. This presents a group of well owned, consistently high performing players.
Differentials are needed now more than ever as those look to steal a march on the template driven squads. Such deviation from the norm is risky, but this article will aim to present some good differential options that have the potential to carry strong rewards to those who draft them in.
Method
For this analysis I will be basing my selection on:
1. Form – this has to be the most important factor, especially considering how productive the top performers continue to be.
2. Underlying statistics – these are used to confirm a player’s strong form that have yet to convert into points.
3. Circumstances – for example is the player in a different position or role? Riyad Mahrez handing Jamie Vardy penalty duties for Leicester to help him achieve his recent consecutive goal scoring record is a good example.
4. Ownership % — When seeking a differential option, we often gravitate toward those players whose ownership is at low or even microscopic numbers. With the likes of Mahrez owned by two thirds of players the rules over ownership have changed and now a player that is owned by 10% or even around 20% can be safely called a differential.
Forwards
The Current Template
Jamie Vardy, Romelu Lukaku, Odion Ighalo
The most reasonable argument would be to leave these three alone. The Dream Team seems to have bolted the door shut on outsiders here. They have massively outperformed the pack for the season, and also are the top three for form. What’s not to like here? But it is still worth taking a look and considering moving one on.
Lukaku and Ighalo are untouchables in my opinion. Based on form and underlying statistics there is simply no justification for shipping them right now: their form average game week score in FPL is 7.3 and 10.3 respectively. The are also dominating the Fantasy Football Scout members area attacking statistics. Plus their ownership is high. Getting rid of either because of fixtures, boredom or price bias is much more wishful thinking than calculated risk taking. They tick every box.
Jamie Vardy however presents an opportunity. Even though he is the most consistent of the three of them, and has almost the exact same form and ownership percentage as Lukaku, he offers a slightly lower ceiling as well as a marked downturn in underlying stats when compared to his rampant form while his goal streak was alive. He is outside the top 10 forwards in both of the statistical tables over the past four weeks.
The Differential Replacements
Harry Kane – His form of 4.7 PPG is not that impressive. Likewise, his low statistical form has been a puzzle to decipher as well, although there is emerging evidence that this could pick up with the return of Spurs’ midfield playmaker Moussa Dembele from injury. Indeed when Dembele returned in Gameweek 17 Kane’s stats improved and he scored as well. He is also well owned enough that you are not going at it alone but low enough where you could make up some ground (23% in top 10k, 28% overall).
Olivier Giroud -While his form of 5.0 is better than Kane’s, he has yet to register a double digit haul, and it is not for a lack of trying. He has played 90 minutes in 5/6 and 6/8 of the last matches; he is getting the minutes and his results, including Goals/minute, are becoming quite similar to Vardy’s. Though his situation looks to have been solidified with the news of Alexis Sanchez being out until mid-January as well as his assumption of penalty duties from the injured Cazorla, his underlying stats are not as promising as Kane’s. His low ownership (7%/11%) sets you apart from the crowd but is right at the edge of the risk cliff.
Troy Deeney – But there is already Ighalo, surely this is a mistake? Eggs, baskets, and coverage aside, his form is unassailable and if a double up on Leicester or another title contender is justifiable, why not the dynamic duo of Ighalo and Deeney? Deeney is on the same form as Lukaku and Vardy at 7.3, and his stats back up the points: his overall attacking rating (using FFSscout’s ICT Index) is actually better than those two over the past four gameweeks. The ownership percentage is incredibly low but if you believe in Ighalo than it is quite likely Deeney will produce right alongside him, plus he is on penalties. Nobody can defend the fixtures (che, TOT, MCI) as tasty, but two of those squads have not been exactly leak proof.
Sergio Aguero – Manchester City’s injury prone striker has scored five goals in a match this season. But he has also blanked in seven out of eleven matches, making him the very definition of explosive in Fantasy Football. Drafting him in will be down to the psychology of the Fantasy manager. Are you sceptical of his fitness and form, especially so close to returning to injury? Or do you believe that his potentially explosive returns justify the investment and the risk of casting aside Vardy?
Midfielders
The Current Template
Mahrez, Ozil, Barkley, Wijnaldum (Ayew)
Mahrez and Mesut Ozil are untouchables so don’t even think about casting this duo aside. They have the lot: consistency, high points potential, form, class, bonus points and high percentages within the top 10,000 (of 98.3 and 88.8, respectively. Add to that Mahrez and his insane points per game (9.2, or better than Giroud’s highest score for the season!) and he should be an automatic captain consideration every week. He is on pace to challenge the greatest of the greatest in the Fantasy Premier League.
Removing Barkley is an opportunity, albeit one that carries risk. His form is a strong at 6.5 a game in recent weeks, and his underlying attacking statistics are actually better than Vardy’s currently. Additionally, his ownership is massive (66.6/41.7). However, his underlying shooting stats are not that great recently, though he is still creating and getting plenty of chances. One possible area to exploit is that he has blanked 10 of 17 matches and only hit double digits three times, though betting against him is quite a daring proposition with that ownership.
Wijnaldum and Ayew are the Weaknesses of the Dream Team attack. Wijnaldum has decent form at 5.0 but his underlying statistics are not impressive. Plus, his ownership percentage doesn’t really do much good at 23% in the top 10,000. Ayew is even less justifiable. His form is very low with four blanks in a row, plus his underlying statistics don’t help his case at all.
The Differential Replacements
Aaron Ramsey – The Arsenal man leads the way. His form is strong, his underlying statistics are amazing since his move to a central midfield role and his fixtures look good. Over the years his team mate Theo Walcott has also impressed and with his goal against Manchester City on Monday is another to consider. He could even start up front for a game if Arsene Wenger looks to give Olivier Giroud a rest during one of the three Christmas and New Year fixtures.
Delle Alli – The Tottenham youngster doesn’t have quite the form or stats as Ramsey but his situation seems promising as a central part of the Spurs attack. Additionally, his bandwagon is picking up this week as his transfers in surge, so your risk is a bit mitigated since so many other managers have decided to take the plunge.
Yannick Bolasie – Crystal Palace’s speedy winger is another with great underlying statistics and has good form on his side, with a 5.6 PPG over the past four weeks. His ownership is quite low, however, around 6.0% in the top 10,000 which gives him template smashing ability.
Marko Arnautovic – Stoke’s attack minded midfielder profiles similarly to Bolasie in terms of form and underlying statistics. With an out of form Manchester United up next on Boxing Day he will be going under the radar of many Fantasy managers.
Pedro, Eden Hazard, Oscar, Willian – Form is hard to assess for this trio so opting for one will be down to hope more than anything else. Nevertheless, Eden Hazard was showing promise in terms of underlying statistics before a hip injury sidelined him for Gameweek 17. Also Oscar and Pedro, along with Willian impressed in the first game of the post Mourinho era this season when Chelsea scored three against Sunderland. Hazard has penalty kicks, Oscar seemingly his deputy. But basic maths means that one will miss out each games with this quartet vying for just three places. Opting for one of these is a risk, but one that could bring rewards.
