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4 April 2017 59 comments
TopMarx TopMarx
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Gameweek 30 was another excellent week for our elite quintet with green arrows for everyone bar career HoF number one Ville Ronka, who dropped outside the top 10,000 by a single point.

The headline news this week is that we have our first post Christmas wildcarder in the HoF Top 5.

David Meechan decided to roll the dice over the international break, changing nine players in his squad. This resulted in him having a high Gameweek score of 68, earning instant reward for his tinkering. One interesting omission from his purchases is Double Gameweek favourite Zlatan Ibrahimovic. I will look in detail at all his transfers (and non-transfers) later on.

This article focuses on the moves and strategies employed by the five elite managers who grace the upper echelons of this site’s Career Hall of Fame.

Members can see the latest top five via our Live Hall of Fame update.

To help out I have also deployed Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool to gain an extra insight into their thinking.

Before we look at their teams in more detail, here’s why they are the best FPL managers:

Lowest rank in the last three seasons for any of the top five4,324
Highest rank in the last three seasons for any of the top five49

POINTS & RANK

ManagerVilleMarlenPeterSteveDavid
GW30 points4158505568
In the bank£4.1£1.0£4.3£5.3£0.0

 

Name & HoF rankFPL IDPoint after GW30FPL rank GW30Best FPL rank 16/17*Worst FPL rank 16/17*
Ville #1303271,70710,1728,637 (GW29)135,324 (GW19)
Marlen #2600811,64458,83013,561 (GW20)101,648 (GW27)
Peter #367461,7631,4411,441 (GW30)243,702 (GW07)
Steve #439111,620101,482101,482 (GW30)845,911 (GW17)
David #5457551,7187,2755,615 (GW21)73,858 (GW09)

*from GW6 onwards

Only one of this quintet qualified for the cup (David #5), he went out in GW19.
All apart from David still have their Wildcards, all apart from David have played their Triple Captain chip, and three have also played their AOA chip.

David’s clever use of his Wildcard saw him re-enter the top 10,000 for the first time since Gameweek 22. As mentioned last week should he finish inside the top 10,000 it would be the seventh time he has done so in seven seasons. Only Ville has more consecutive top 10,000 finishes.

Regular poster in the comments section Peter Kouwenberg (aka MyPrettyPony) achieved a season-high FPL rank for the fifth Gameweek in a row as his fine run of form shows no sign of abating. He is now only 8 points outside the top 1,000 with an overall rank of 1,441. He is getting ever closer to a hat-trick of three digit finishes, after ranks of 289 and 129 in the past two seasons. This would be a magnificent feat should he achieve it, something not even the great Ville can boast.

Steve Poulsom is at 101,482 and will be hoping to finally get back to a five digit rank and salvage something from a disappointing season for him. He is now only 24 points behind number-two Marlen Rattiner as he attempts to avoid the career Top Five wooden spoon.

The American moved back up to 58,830 as he continues to steadily climb the ranks. With two heavy hitting South Americans in his team in the shape of Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez and Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero, he will be hoping to maintain his upward trajectory.

CAPTAIN

Screen Shot 2017-04-04 at 14.45.41

What a gutting week for Hall of Fame A-lister Ville; not only did he captain Chelsea’s Diego Costa who managed nine shots and no goals, but to rub salt in the wound Christian Benteke decided to find the net against the Blues.

The Belgian, you may recall from my ‘Table of Stubbornness’, was in Ville’s team for 21 matches this season averaging a lowly 3.7 points per appearance. A penny for Ville’s thoughts – there’s no rhyme or reason to football sometimes.

After a week to forget for the Finnish Enigma he has made a single transfer already this Gameweek. His funds in the bank have reduced from £4.1 to £2.1, suggesting that Liverpool’s injured Saido Mané has made way for FPL leading points scorer Sanchez.

It was only a mildly better week for the other four managers in the Top Five with a slightly below average captain score of 12 from both Mané and Tottenham’s Dele Alli.

Over the season Sanchez has been picked as captain 30% of the time, averaging 15 points when chosen. Aguero follows in popularity having been handed the armband 26% of the time, averaging 15.9pts as captain or triple captain, with Everton’s Romelu Lukaku chosen 11% of the time averaging a mighty 21.8pts.

Below I’ve had a go at creating a graphic displaying this information for the five most popular captain picks. It shows that Lukaku has performed best when chosen as captain, and also perhaps that our elite quintet have known when to pick him as well. Clearly they all knew this week wasn’t it.

You could argue that the trolls on this graphic are Tottenham’s Harry Kane and United’s Ibrahimovic. They have not performed as well as expected on the few occasions that they have been chosen as captains, averaging 11.4 and 12.8 points respectively.

captain HOF graphic

CAPTAIN POINTS

ManagerVilleMarlenPeterSteveDavidAve. (c) pointsAs % of score
GW (c) Points2121212121018
Total (c) Points43141547737540442025

One reason Peter is currently the best performing manager out of the Top Five is his ability to pick the right captain. Peter also leads the way in immediate transfer success however the difference is less pronounced (see ‘Transfer Success’ section).

Comparing captain points to current FPL leader, Knut Hebæk, it becomes even more evident how important this metric is. The Norwegian has garnered a staggering 554pts from his captain picks alone. Nearly 29% of his total score.

To help you make this crucial decision be sure to read YMA’s Form and Fixture analysis together with the Captain Sensible articles.

TRANSFERS – Gameweek 30

ManagerVilleMarlenPeterSteveDavid
Players InValenciaValencia,

Son

DaviesValencia,

Alli

WC
Players OutMcAuleyFunes Mori, SterlingColemanColeman, AntonioWC

The top transfer target this week was Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia. The Ecuadorian rewarded his managers with a clean sheet and two bonus points against a determined yet blunt West Brom team at Old Trafford.

Otherwise Spurs, who don’t have a double in Gameweek 34, provided the rest of the players purchased this week. With Son Heung-min, Dele Alli, and Ben Davies picked by our famous five.

DAVID’S WILDCARD

Players InValdés, Valencia, Yoshida, Fabio, Koné, Sanchez, Alli, Vardy, Barnes
Players OutFoster, Coleman, Baines, Brunt, Maguire, Mané, King, Aguero, Anichebe,
RemainersPickford, Alonso, Eriksen, Coutinho, Sigurdsson, Lukaku

It has been fascinating to see who David transferred in and who he didn’t. Another notable absentee, in addition to Double Gameweek favourite Zlatan Ibrahimovic, is Chelsea’s combative frontman Diego Costa. Though the Spanish star together his with club and international teammate Pedro, clearly entered David’s thoughts; both were transferred in and then ultimately out of his team over the international break.

Despite not owning Ibrahimovic, there’s no reason why the big Swede couldn’t come into David’s team for DGW34. However, at present it would require two transfers to facilitate it, as he doesn’t have enough funds available to upgrade a forward in a straight swap.

Perhaps one reason for omitting the former PSG star is that he foresaw potential rotation with United competing in the latter stages of the Europa League. No doubt Mourinho confirming as much in Monday’s press conference wouldn’t have surprised him. Yet one Red Devil did make it into his team in the guise of former Wigan winger Valencia.

In addition to the Ecuadorian, Englishman David clearly had one eye on the upcoming Double. Former United players Valdés and Fabio, now both at Middlesborough, also made the cut.

Liverpool’s little Brazilian Philippe Coutinho was another to play the Hokey Cokey in David’s team. However when the music stopped the little magician found himself back in the team, rather than joining teammate Mané in being shown the door. A wise move as it turned out.

The other five players to remain following the Wildcard reshuffle include those currently offering excellent value and potential. Perhaps only Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso can count himself lucky to have escaped the chop. Though with so much money gained on the Spaniard it is hardly surprising – it would prove very costly to buy him back should Chelsea remember how to keep a clean sheet.

The other key point to mention is that David has opted for a 3-5-2 formation going forward, as evidenced by his purchase of our favourite bench fodder forward Burnley’s Ashley Barnes. He therefore hasn’t gone for a strong front eight, an option picked up on in last week’s articles on the Live HoF top ten. Preferring instead to invest the cash in his starting eleven players.

TRANSFER SUCCESS

ManagerVilleMarlenPeterSteveDavidAverage
GW30 Transfers1212WC1.5
GW30 Points Hits0000WC0
GW30 Immediate Points Gained from Transfers0136142111
Minus Points Hits0136142111

For Ville the eight-point return from Valencia was matched by the eight points from the outgoing Gareth McAuley, resulting in a net total of zero points gained. Sods Law in evidence again this week for the FPL legend.

As ever Peter was kind enough to share his transfer plans ahead of the deadline. If you’d followed his advice since I started tracking the crème de la crème of the fantasy football world, you’d be in pretty good shape. Thank you Peter!

This week he has already made two transfers, taking a 4 point hit. His money available in the bank has dropped from £4.3 to £0.7, which would perhaps suggest the purchase of a certain Chilean?

Even taking hits into account, Peter has mustered more immediate transfer points than any of his fellow bosses at the HoF’s top table or indeed the current FPL number one Knut. The overall leader for a total of 15 Gameweeks this season, Knut has managed ‘just’ 181 immediate transfer points minus hits.

NameVilleMarlenPeterSteveDavidAverage
Total Transfers303848444040
Total Points Hits84080645249
Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers165214294261240235
Minus Points Hits157174214197188186
Total Benched Points278142235229165210
£ Value (GW30)104.4103.7108.1105.8104.5105.3

The contrasting way the game can be played is highlighted in the table above. Perhaps surprisingly the number of transfers made does not appear to be a significant factor in determining success. If anything Peter’s 80 points in hits compares favourably to Ville’s paltry 8 points, given that he has amassed over 50 points more than the Finn based on this measure.

FORMATION

Prior to Fernando Llorente’s injury

Three teams3-4-3 formation
Two teams3-5-2 formation

End of the Gameweek

Two teams3-5-2 formation
One team3-4-3 formation
One team4-5-1 formation
One team4-4-2 formation

The standard 3-4-3 formation was again popular this week with three managers originally setting up their teams this way. However Fernando Llorente’s absence meant 3-5-2 became the most prevalent formation by default as auto-subs came into play.

Over the course of the season 3-4-3 has been favoured 57% of the time by the career HoF Top Five, with 3-5-2 second with 22%. 4-4-2 is the third most popular on 11%.

PLAYERS – Gameweek 30

Players in 5 teamsLukaku, Valencia
Players in 4 teamsAlonso, Mané
Players in 3 teamsLlorente, Eriksen, Sigurdsson, Heaton, Pickford
Attacking players under 6mKing x2, Snodgrass x2, Barnes x2, Fletcher

Robert Snodgrass remains in Ville and Marlen’s teams, they purchased him back in Gameweek 25 when it appeared he was about to assume the role of West Ham’s talisman from the departed Dimitry Payet.

Perhaps they also thought he would do well against his former club last week. Frustratingly for them it just isn’t happening for the Scott at the moment and after yet another disappointing return it will be interesting to see how long he remains in their teams. Budget players with Double Gameweeks on the horizon include the on-fire Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha and Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse.

Fellow budget option in the sub 6.0 category Bournemouth’s Josh King, was sold by David over the international break. Despite having offered such good value recently his upcoming trio of fixtures against three of the current top four teams must have proved a deterrent.

TEMPLATE – Gameweek 30

Goalkeepers – Heaton, Pickford

Defenders – Valencia, Alonso, Brunt / McAuley, (Chambers)

Midfielders – Mané, Eriksen, Sigurdsson, Alli / Son, Coutinho / Firmino

Forwards – Lukaku, Llorente, (Costa / Barnes)

With Sanchez already in two teams and possibly four now after purchases by Peter and Ville, it is likely the Template will alter a little for Gameweek 31. I expect the Arsenal number seven to replace the injured Mané.

At the back Valencia is owned across the board, with Alonso failing to return to Marlen’s team following his sale in Gameweek 27.

Otherwise we wait to see how much the Double Gameweek will affect the template.

I hope these articles are useful in helping you make decisions. One thing I’ve noticed is how quickly fortunes can change for better or worse. With eight Gameweeks to go, including a possible three Double Gameweeks, Bench Boost and Wildcards to play, there’s every chance this quintet will finish the season very strongly.

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside. Follow them on Twitter

59 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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    • 16 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Fascinating as ever.

    Particularly like the analysis on captaincy. I found that with the Live HoF too - Sanchez was the most popular but not the most successful.

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Thank you Jonty, yes interesting that, Sanchez and Aguero very much the default options this season, often chosen in weeks where other explosive options weren't obvious. Interesting that Lukaku has done much better than Kane or Ibra the few times he's been chosen - a reverse troll now as I saw someone say on the site!

  2. My Pretty Pony
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    You are indeed all welcome to take my advice...except when I try to be too clever and bench Coutinho for King at the last minute. Aaaargh!

    Haven't had a chance to read the article properly just now (will do later) but for what it's worth I have made the predictable moves of Mane and Sigs (with regret) to Alli and Sanchez.

    I had enough money to do Costa to Ibra before next g/w until last night's drop for Costa. Hopefully, that won't come back to haunt me.

    1. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Unlucky with Coutinho! I'm assuming it's Sanchez (c) locked in too? If you had Vardy too would you still captain Sanchez!? Thanks

    2. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Alli and Sanchez, wish I could afford Alli! great moves, that's some midfield you got now. I'm 0.2 away from doing Siggy and Baines > Alli and Davies! I would take the -8 if the move was possible. Alli looking awesome at the moment.

      I'm worried about not owning Aguero next week, not as worried about Ibra for some reason. If I get Aguero he can always become Ibra for DGW34. Are you keen on Aguero or is he just too expensive?

    3. My Pretty Pony
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Captaincy on Sanchez at the moment and as I'll be playing footie myself in an hour's time I guess that'll remain the position. Would I captain Vardy? Honestly not sure. I'm still torn between Alli, Erik, Cout and Sanchez so it's a week with several potential captaincy options.

      Yeah, TM, although losing Siggy could come back and bite me, Sanchez, Cout, Alli, Erik and King is a decent midfield on paper and Luk, Costa and Carroll no slouches up front. Carroll was a bit of an impulse buy and has probably cost me points (e.g. Cout) because I've played him more than I would a bench striker. Good fixtures though and is ticking over.

      I was asked the Ag question by a mate yesterday and there is always a huge risk going without Aguero, so it is a gamble, but at the moment I see value elsewhere. I may also be biased by the fact I felt pressured to bring him in twice earlier in the season (including the Triple Captaincy) and both times he underperformed. But is clearly a fantastic option.

      1. TopMarx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        thank you, yes perhaps King to Sane next week is a more sensible move. Enjoy the football, real and fantasy! big game for Forest too.

        1. My Pretty Pony
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Either move could work out great. I'll probably not have any City coverage, so will be avoiding that game!

          Oddly, when I look ahead at my 'possible' WC36 team for BB37 I can actually get to it without wildcarding but just with free transfers from now. Obviously injuries, form, motivation is worth monitoring, but it'll be odd if I end up with the Bench Boost spare for week 38. In that case the early WC may have proved the better shout from those who did so.

          1. TopMarx
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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            • 12 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            That would be odd, but sort of understandable given your fine run and squad value. I'm considering a WC next week but i'm keen on City attackers, hoping for a miraculous return from the aptly named Jesus to give me a cheaper alternative to Aguero.

            This week I'm still toying with a -8:
            Sigy + Baines > Alli + Mawson/Robertson/Yoshida/4.6 def.

            not worth it I think but so tempting...

            1. My Pretty Pony
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 8 months ago

              Could pay off this week and a good shout if you are planning ahead. I'm not one to criticise a hit this season! Yeah, Jesus situation has a huge bearing on the double, likewise Kane (you'd assume he's back). Arguably motivation will be the biggest factor up amongst the top 4 sides i.e. whether they have anything to play for. Likewise at the bottom.

              Right, off now. Apologies in advance if I make any last second captaincy change (half-time 🙂 )

              1. TopMarx
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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                • 12 Years
                8 years, 8 months ago

                I think it promises to be a really exciting top four finish! enjoy your evening

  3. Springbank
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks TopMarx this is gold mine!

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      you're welcome! glad it is useful

  4. The Rumour Mill
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Fantastic analysis, thank you for the effort you put into this!

    Comparing it to my own team, I've gained more points from immediate transfers minus hits than 4 of the top 5, and more captaincy points than 4 of the top 5. The problem, therefore, appears to be the selection of everybody else in my team! LOL

    A particular problem earlier in the season it seems, both of the last 2 seasons I've found myself starting slowly and outside the top million come Christmas time!

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Ha, yes, there's always the other players! you sound like an intriguing case though - what's your ID?

      I was amazed how many captain points the current leader has - 554 seems obscene!

      A slow start is a pain to recover from, hope you have a few green arrows between now and the end of the season.

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        My ID is:

        https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/46603/history

        Currently at a relatively lowly 300k, but I'm quite happy with the rise from around 1.3 million around xmas time!

        554 is rediculous, he must have nailed it every single week, and caught all the explosive hauls.

        Cheers 🙂 Its been green arrows 8 of the last 10 weeks i believe. Glad you mentioned further down that Luck is the dominant factor earlier in the season, I'm inclined to agree 😉

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          🙂 I think most of us get better as the season goes on, and your team is looking in good shape!

          So annoying about that Ibra penalty! 2 points from your bench not quite the same as 9 or possibly 12. I had Baines in my team and I thought I was on for an unexpected clean sheet. Hey ho!

          As you say you have done well with your captain picks and your percentage is a little higher than the average. This week you are in good company with Ville, Peter, David and now Live Top Ten HoF entry Philman (below) all picking Sanchez as captain.

          Looking at FPL Statistico the only player that really stands out as being a poor pick is Monreal, a 2.6pts return over 16 games is not great for a premium defender. Perhaps a little too stubborn there? You might have been better off looking for a cheaper defender, certainly a better value one.

          You look in excellent shape now however, good luck for the rest of the season!

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 8 months ago

            I agree, I like to think that once patterns start to develop in the league I pick up on them quite well and make good decisions. Whereas in the chaotic early part of the season before I can really tell definitively who is good and who isn't I'm scrabbling around making transfer moves which only pay off say 50% of the time. Of course some of the recent rise is inevitably down to merely overtaking ghost teams 😉

            Tell me about it!! I had no idea what had happened as I was out playing sport, only to come home and see 2 points and a red Williams. Bit unusual I thought, only after reading the match report did I realise I was mere seconds from a 12 pointer and surely a hefty rank boost! Gutted. Sorry to hear about your Baines misfortune too!

            Cheers 🙂 that's good to hear, was agonising over whether to captain Vardy or Sanchez, I guess we will find out tonight whether we made the right choice. 9 points a decent benchmark to beat though.

            Haha definitely too stubborn on Monreal! I got him in for Azpilicueta in the week after Chelsea switched to 3-4-3, as the Chelsea defence had been poor in the early part of the season and Arsenal fixtures were blue on the ticker. Little did I know what an incredible defensive turnaround that formation switch would bring! Another poor move was bringing in Fuchs when I could have bought in Alonso. And the third poor move(s) has been the recurring nightmare of 5th Midfielder - from Capoue to Allen to Gundogan to Can to Stanislas....

            Thank you for your analysis of my team and good luck to you too, I shall continue to follow your articles with interest, keep up the great work! 🙂

            1. TopMarx
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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              • 12 Years
              8 years, 8 months ago

              Thank you!

              Yes finding value in the sub 6.0 / cheap 4th 5th mid, has been challenging most of the time. Recently only King has been a success for the Top Five. Ville too managed to bench Capoue for all his early season hauls so you are in good company!

              1. The Rumour Mill
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 8 months ago

                If Ville managed to do it then that makes me feel slightly better!

    2. My Pretty Pony
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      I'm a very slow starter and an early wild carder, however well I think I've sorted my team pre-season.

      TM, I think the captaincy thing is a bit of cause and effect (I think a more impressive term was used a few days ago by a poster). With 4+ million players, the odds are someone WILL nail most/all of their captaincy chances and, as a result, that person is likely to be flying high in the overall game. It is an incredible score though.

      1. TopMarx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Yes I mean despite the astronomical odds of winning the lottery, people do! Similar thing I suppose.

        It's interesting though that the collective has got better at predicting the right captain the more the season has progressed. Something that came out of YMA's review of his Form and Fixtures analysis looking at the Captain Poll vs Form & Fixtures. Luck more needed in the first half of the season perhaps.

  5. sadekad
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Guys dats a proffesional stufd! Big like

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      thanks 🙂

  6. SuperMario
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Love the analysis!!

    Anyone want to stop me doing A below..?

    Foster (Pickford)
    Alonso - Valencia - Walker (Pieters, Amat)
    Alli - Mane* - Siggy - Lanzini (Fletcher)
    Aguero - Llorente - Lukaku

    0.4 bank, 1 FT and WC in place for DGW.. Where the he*l do I go..

    A. Alonso, Mane, Llorente --> Davies, Sanchez (c) and Origi -8
    B. Alonso & Mane --> Bernardo (mid) & Sanchez (c) -4
    C. Mane & Llorente --> Coutinho (c) & Origi -4

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Hi SM,

      Sorry I missed your comment before yesterday's deadline - I went off to host a pub quiz!

      Did you make the move in the end?

      1. SuperMario
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Went with A, hopefully it works out now!!!!

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          good gamble I think! fingers crossed!

  7. Crystal
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Best article of the week, great submission

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
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      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      🙂

  8. Philman
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    These articles just get better. Great stuff TopMarx 🙂

    And the fact that Peter comes on here afterwards to add more detail and answer questions is cool too.

    1. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Totally fair play to him for finding the time

    2. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      thank you sir!

      It's great to hear the thoughts of the top FPL managers, of which there a number on this site, yourself included. Congratulations on making the live HoF top 10 🙂 Interesting that yours and David's midfields are exactly the same, looks like the dream midfield to me. And brave captain choice last week! it's interesting that in using his Wildcard this week Marlen has opted not to get Alonso back in, for those who got him at 6.0 he probably just about feels like value for money, 6.8 seems a bit pricey now the clean sheets have dried up.

  9. Pep bites Kun
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks TM. Very nice article this week. I was a little late getting here this week, but the information you dig up is solid going forward.

    Also thanks to MPP - I like the 'interview' between you and him in the comments. Some great insights coming through.

    A very worthwhile read - cheers!

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Thank you, and yes I agree MPP adds a lot of value to the articles. Another Wildcard has been played this week, so plenty to look at for the next instalment 🙂

      1. Pep bites Kun
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Looking forward to it already 🙂

      2. My Pretty Pony
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Ooh, who? And how do you know re wc? I'm actually away in the West Country for a few days and watching tonight's games with a friend of 30 years so I'm hoping I can shelve my fpl obsession and just enjoy the football.

        Ok, no chance.

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          Haha, I'm quiz hosting but should finish just in time to catch most of the games!

          I just wrote a reply to you below, sorry I meant to say Marlen played his WC in GW30 not this week (GW31). I wish I had the powers to tell who had activated a WC in the current GW! I'm working on it 🙂

  10. My Pretty Pony
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks for the kind words, folks. It really isn't an issue to pop on and bore you all with what can loosely be described as my 'strategies'.

    If there is such a thing, we're all perfectly normal FPL players (Ville aside, perhaps, with his aura!), so never assume my suggestions are better or worse than anyone else's, despite the fortunate ranking.

    TM does a fabulous job with these articles and his chats, as do the other excellent authors on this site.

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Thank you MPP, I agree some excellent articles on the site both community and main site. One of my favourites from the community last year was Ludo's http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/05/26/the-psychology-of-fantasy-football/ I keep wanting to relate those ideas to how the top managers play the game, another bias I would add is Loss Aversion. I think I've said before this is more like a summer project perhaps.

      My immediate concern is to wildcard or not! Marlen is the latest top five HoF to use his wildcard. I'm starting to think this might be the time to use it with perhaps a greater number of teams having more to play for now rather than later on. Fewer teams have reached mid table security at this point in the season. Results can often be less predictable in the last couple of GWs I think.

      Interestingly Marlen swapped a fairly decent forward line of Lukaku, Aguero and Llorente for Vardy, Ibra and Benteke! He captained Ibra too so must have been relieved with his last minute penalty. He has gone without City players completely at a time when I think Sane and Aguero might be worth getting.

      I made two transfer last night to avoid price changes in case I decide to go for the WC this week. Depends on this evening matches.

      1. My Pretty Pony
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, TM, you'll have seen my musings on WC. I'm not sure I'm going to make the most of it by leaving it late, but I quite like my squad (lack of City aside). I think it'll be useful to keep it up my sleeve but, barring the unexpected, I agree that using sooner rather than later may work out really well.

        Another unhelpful comment, eh 🙂

  11. HVT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks for a tremendous write up TM! Outstanding doesn't do this article (and previous) justice, I just hope you are doing this professionally and getting paid for it!
    Your Start/Middle/End analysis is superfluous!
    I've 3 top 1.5 k finishes in the last few seasons so I've a bit of work to do to catch up with these 'pros' but it's fascinating to see their train of thought and compare mine!
    Thanks again-here's my link in case you see divine inspiration!
    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/425/history

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      reply fail - see below

  12. TopMarx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Well I hope not too superfluous! I try to think of interesting ways to look at their moves, thanks to FPL Statistico mainly. I'm not sure you need too much help from me with ranks like those! A bit more luck with your captain choice and you'd no doubt be in the top 10,000, looking good for this week though, fingers crossed for Sanchez (c) tonight!

  13. My Pretty Pony
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    After all my posturing to you, TM, about avoiding Aguero and agreeing Sane is a better value option, I find myself drawn to a(nother) hit of Aguero and Haz in for Costa and Sanchez. Surely too impatient with Sanchez and points chasing? Have the exact money for it, which oddly seems to tempt me even more.

    1. My Pretty Pony
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      That would also be in - out for Sanchez in 2 consecutive weeks. How did he look yesterday?

      1. TopMarx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        a friend of mine was at the match yesterday so I'm waiting for an 'in the stadium' report on Sanchez. I'm worried he is playing too wide and not getting goalscoring chances, a comparison between him and Hazard using the members tool is clearly in Hazards favour. Sods law he will play centre forward against Palace and he has done better away from home, but at the moment he seems off the boil.

        I've activated my WC! Slightly knee-jerk, I was annoyed at not doing the hit to get in Alli and Yoshida, or just swapping Mané for Alli instead of Sanchez. Either way I felt I really needed Alli. Kane looks like he will be back for GW33 so do I leave a space for him in my team? Would Alli, Eriksen, Kane be too much?

        The other big question I have is what to do with Alonso. I watched the match on TV yesterday and towards the end of the game he was making the odd underlapping run inside Hazard into the box. But other defenders are scoring goals and he is pricey... though I thought Chelsea were excellent in the second half defensively. Made it a dull game.

        Vardy is out for me now, thank you for the points 🙂 I'm so annoyed at the league for not helping Leicester with their CL QF. 4pm kick-off Sunday followed by an away match against an excellent AM side on Wednesday. Two days to rest, prepare and travel. Why not give them an extra day to prepare? I don't expect Vardy to play the full 90 if at all on Sunday.

        I will get Aguero in for him. Although I wasn't overly impressed with Man City, plus Hull boss Silva is unlikely to really go for it against them. I imagine he would take a point - or do you think he has to go for it? an early goal for City would force Hull to attack so I'm hoping that happens. Also I thought Sané was good but he faded and i'm worried he could be rested.

        Don't know what to make of United and Zlatan. There's a chance I may change my mind and go for Zlatan over Aguero. Time to ponder...

        1. My Pretty Pony
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          I've been contemplating just those points this morning. I'll try (and fail) to be succinct and I know most of what I say is pretty obvious anyway.

          - I'm also contemplating WC, may well do so if Carroll is out.
          - To add to your point about Sanchez away, Haz is much better at home, but I'm still tempted to switch.
          - I was also annoyed by Yoshida as he was coming in for me soon too.
          - Alli would be a priority if I didn't have him. I'll sort out the Kane situation when he's actually back.
          - Alonso downgrade is another way I was thinking of funding Costa to Ag, so I concur with your reasoning.
          - I see goals in the City game and, contrary to my position 2 days ago, am likely to get Aguero (partly because Costa looked poor yesterday). Sane at risk of rest but still good option.

          Saw you are through in the Cup - good luck with that!

  14. My Pretty Pony
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Oh, and Ibra conundrum is also central to early WC. Doubles ahoy, but what is the focus and rotation risk? Sunderland could take a pasting, but United haven't looked brilliant offensively. I could actually WC to an attack of Luk, Ag, Ibra, Haz, Alli, Erik, Sane plus King, but it's only really worth it if I fancy Ibra to step up.

    1. My Pretty Pony
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Reply fail. But close enough!

    2. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      That would be some attack! Reading a first hand report about the Chelsea/City match yesterday actually gives me a bit more confidence about Sané. A little less confidence about Aguero but the all out attack approach is the way City are approaching games, which can only suit Aguero. Kane looks like a GW33 return is on the cards http://tothelaneandback.com/2017/04/04/harry-kanes-return-date-is-known-striker-could-be-back-to-face-bournemouth-on-april-15/ so he could replace one in my forward line, the question is more which Spurs player to drop - Alli, Eriksen, or Davies? probably Davies. But then is three Spurs attack overkill?

      Yes pleased to be through in the FFS cups. Annoyingly out of Jarvish's Frequent Poster Cup, I lost my 100 Club Wildcard final. Can't win them all! Not surprised to see you through to the next round either, good luck to you too!

    3. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Mata's absence seems to be having a bigger affect on United than expected. Moyes won't want to lose this weekend (obviously!), and United are hard to work out at the moment. Where does this leave Ibra as a fantasy option? Tricky to say.

      1. My Pretty Pony
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        Useful info on City and Spurs - cheers! I think with Kane back I'd have to lose Erik, but with a very heavy heart. That said, Rose may force our hands re Davies anyway.

    4. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      Have you decided to WC in the end?

  15. TopMarx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 8 months ago

    Hi All,

    Here's a link to my Gameweek 31 review of the Career Top Five http://bit.ly/2nmJ3EB

    Career number two Marlen played his wildcard in GW31, he's made some intriguing moves.

    1. TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 8 months ago

      and congratulations to MPP on becoming the new leader in the Live HoF!

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 8 months ago

        He's very close if not leading. Made plenty of ground on the top 2.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 8 months ago

          He is the new leader (see hot topic).
          But the top three are extremely close.